who wins tomorrow? / final prediction thread

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'll go back to the Golden Arches if he wins.

Work anyplace that will employ you.

With McCain as President, that might be the only place hiring.

(Note: not my real sentiments, but one good zinger deserved another.)

[Torie]

Here is SurveyUSA's "final" prediction, with its polling in from today:

"Final Florida GOP Primary Numbers: Jump Ball -- It is impossible to tell whether John McCain or Mitt Romney will emerge in 24 hours with Florida's prized delegates, according to SurveyUSA's final three Florida GOP tracking polls, including interviews on Primary Eve, conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Mobile Pensacola. SurveyUSA's 01/25/08 release showed the contest tied. SurveyUSA's 01/28/08 release showed the contest tied. And this, SurveyUSA's 01/29/08 release, shows the contest tied. We can reveal that in the final totals it is  McCain 31.6%, Romney 31.2%,  but we will caution that those numbers are  not  materially different than the  Romney 31.9%, McCain 31.3% numbers that SurveyUSA reported this morning. The movement is too small to be judged significant, and the best interpretation of the data and the trendlines is that the contest could go either way. Rudolph Giuliani and Mike Huckabee finish far back, tied for 3rd place, with half the votes of the front-runners. Romney has caught McCain among older voters. But McCain has caught Romney among younger voters.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

It will be a two man fight between John McCain and Mitt Romney and McCain will come out on top by about 2-3 points. Huckabee will finish third and Rudy Giuliani will finish fourth and end his lackluster campaign for President.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Rudy finishing fourth wouldn't surprise me. He tends to drop substantially from where he polls the day before the race. He may not break 10%.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Romney.

According to my formula, it should be:
McCain 34.873%
Romney 33.104%
Giuliani 13.926%
Huckabee 12.556%
Other 5.143%
Margin of Error: 3.220%

My prediction is:

Romney: 34.5%
McCain: 34%
Giuliani: 14%
Huckabee: 13.5%
Others: 4%

[Franzl]

McCain by at least 5%

[Eraserhead]

Romney.

According to my formula, it should be:
McCain 34.873%
Romney 33.104%
Giuliani 13.926%
Huckabee 12.556%
Other 5.143%
Margin of Error: 3.220%
My prediction is:

Romney: 34.5%
McCain: 34%
Giuliani: 14%
Huckabee: 13.5%
Others: 4%

Why do you bother?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Factoring in the new polls, my formula now gives us:

McCain 34.987%
Romney 34.717%
Giuliani 13.048%
Huckabee 12.598%
Other 4.789%

MoE: 3.268%

[Sam Spade]

Final Guess

GOP
McCain 35
Romney 33
Giuliani 14
Huckabee 13
Paul 4
Others 1

What's odd is that no poll in FL that I trust shows Romney winning, with the notable exception of Mason-Dixon, the gold standard in Florida.  It tugs at my heart to say that they would be wrong, but maybe their sample is too old.  So maybe, I'm choosing that a bet against ARG is better than betting with M-D in this one instance.  Also influencing my guess is that turnout will probably be quite high.  High turnout, fundamentally, should help McCain.

I could well be wrong - we'll see.

DEM
Clinton 53
Obama 33
Edwards 14

[Meeker]

McCain: 32%
Romney: 31%
Giuliani: 18%
Huckabee: 14%
Paul: 5%

This really could go either way, and I wouldn't be surprised by a recount

I already posted Dem numbers in the other thread, but here they are again:

Clinton: 53%
Obama: 34%
Edwards: 13%

[Mr. Morden]

If McCain wins this thing by a whisker, Charlie Crist will be his new BFF.

[JSojourner]

McCain by a nose.

[J. J.]

McCain: 32%
Romney: 31%
Giuliani: 18%
Huckabee: 14%
Paul: 5%

This really could go either way, and I wouldn't be surprised by a recount

I already posted Dem numbers in the other thread, but here they are again:

Clinton: 53%
Obama: 34%
Edwards: 13%

I think you are darn close.

[Gustaf]

The GOP side will be close, but who wins is really a matter of educated guesses right now. I say Romney, narrowly.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

FWIW, McCain is trading in the upper 60's on RCP Fantasy Exchange. Up from 50 last night. Normally that is a good predictor of who will win the race.

[Tender Branson]

Romney: 33%
McCain: 32%
Huckabee: 14%
Giuliani: 13%
Paul: 8%

Clinton: 50%
Obama: 36%
Edwards: 14%

[SPQR]

It's gonna be a la 2000.

[Person Man]

It's gonna be a la 2000.

What will happen then?

[SPQR]

It's gonna be a la 2000.

What will happen then?

Everyone will call it for Romney except for Fox,then in the morning McCain will be declared the winner.And plenty of Romney supporters resident in Palm Beach County will claim that there have been all sorts of errors in there.

[Democratic Hawk]

McCain

[Tender Branson]

Will the exit polls come out at 1am or 2am ?

[Saxwsylvania]

McCain 31.5377%
Romney 30.1031%
Giuliani 15.4844%
Huckabee 12.1419%
Paul 8.2824%
Others 2.4505%

Clinton 50.988%
Obama 32.9094%
Edwards 16.1026%

Something tells me that the Paul % is too high.  I really want to change it to 8.2819, but I'll leave it for now.

[Jake]

Romney by +4 points.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Romney: he'll win because it's a closed primary, the base dislikes McCain, and Giuliani cratered.

HOWEVER, I predict Huckabee will do better than everyone is predicting: remember Catherine Harris won a senate primary here in a crowded field in 2006 against the wishes of party leaders. The evangelicals will turn out for him, but I don't think it will be enough to catch Romney and McCain.

[Umengus]

Romney: 33%
MC Cain: 30 %
Giuliani: 16 %
Huck: 15 %
Paul: 5%
others: 1%