Canadian by-elections

[Hash]

Not to me, since I'm not supporting any of the Big 4 candidates in Outremont.

[Verily]

The Greens will presumably run a candidate; they withdrew from Repentigny so as to focus all of their efforts on London North Centre, but May won't be running for a seat this time. I don't expect much from the Greens, especially since school is out and the NDP will be serious contenders.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens will presumably run a candidate; they withdrew from Repentigny so as to focus all of their efforts on London North Centre, but May won't be running for a seat this time. I don't expect much from the Greens, especially since school is out and the NDP will be serious contenders.

School wont be out when the election happens in September. School  will very much be in.

Not to me, since I'm not supporting any of the Big 4 candidates in Outremont.

Have fun with that.

Once again, the Green Party will fail to win an election. If they haven't been able to win a provincial seat in BC yet after being included in the debates, there is no hope for them. Besides, Canada doesn't need two green parties.

[Gabu]

Besides, Canada doesn't need two green parties.

Yeah, I'd like to see the NDP go away too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Besides, Canada doesn't need two green parties.

Yeah, I'd like to see the NDP go away too.

Well, we certainly don't need two Liberal Parties either. Actually, we could do without either.

[cp]

Once again, the Green Party will fail to win an election. If they haven't been able to win a provincial seat in BC yet after being included in the debates, there is no hope for them. Besides, Canada doesn't need two green parties.

As I recall, the same predictions were made about the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform Party in the late 80s, when both were startup grassroots organizations that hadn't won any seats yet. The Reform Party, for their part, went through 3 federal elections fielding candidates without winning a single seat until 1993; 15 years later they had obliterated their closest ideological opponent and formed the government.

With all that in mind, I sincerely hope your impressions of the Green Party are accurate.

[cp]

Getting back to the bi-elections . . .

Normal Spector had a column in the Globe today about the Outremont race. I can't get the link for lack of a paid online subscription - sorry. He argued that it would hinge on Afghanistan, but politely skirted the issue of who's the front-runner. He did acknowledge that the NDP and the Conservatives would do best to team up against the Liberals in the hopes that one of them might be able to climb on top from the sides if the centrist Liberal vote was sufficiently depressed.

As far as things in Outremont go (I live there), I don't think anyone has noticed yet. There aren't many signs up and there have been no calls for donations or invitations to events for any of the parties. I doubt there will be until the last couple weeks of August. Most of the voters are probably on vacation now, so even fundraisers would be poorly attended.

Two things to keep in mind about the race:
1. It will change drastically around the first week of September. That's when all the McGill/Concordia/UQAM/U de M students will return. You can bet one of the 'frosh events' will be cavassing duties.

2. This is still very much Liberal/Bloc country. The NDP may be doing well in Quebec historically, but it's still below the threshold of a single seat. The Bloc and the Liberals both *need* a strong showing in Quebec to stave off disaster - so you can bet they'll be pulling all the stops. Also, for all the talk of the Jewish vote and alleged (Norman Spector argues 'baseless') anti-Semitism, the riding is still predominantly weathy Francophones and second-generation immigrant families. These demographic groups have been reliable Bloc and Liberal bastions, respectively, for decades - even through the 2006 election that turned everything upside down in Quebec. The Conservatives and the NDP would be wise to remember that it's an uphill battle for both of them. The Greens are regrettably off the map as far as this election goes. If it's close enough, they may end up being spoilers for one party or another, but it would be by a couple thousand votes at most.

[Hatman 🍁]

Once again, the Green Party will fail to win an election. If they haven't been able to win a provincial seat in BC yet after being included in the debates, there is no hope for them. Besides, Canada doesn't need two green parties.

As I recall, the same predictions were made about the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform Party in the late 80s, when both were startup grassroots organizations that hadn't won any seats yet. The Reform Party, for their part, went through 3 federal elections fielding candidates without winning a single seat until 1993; 15 years later they had obliterated their closest ideological opponent and formed the government.

With all that in mind, I sincerely hope your impressions of the Green Party are accurate.

Correction: The Reform Party did not field candidates before 1988.

The Green Party is not the Reform or Bloc parties. The Greens have been around, and they have missed their chance to get elected. Their biggest problem is their support is too spread out, and well the NDP is preventing them from getting enough votes in an area to win.

Getting back to the bi-elections . . .

Normal Spector had a column in the Globe today about the Outremont race. I can't get the link for lack of a paid online subscription - sorry. He argued that it would hinge on Afghanistan, but politely skirted the issue of who's the front-runner. He did acknowledge that the NDP and the Conservatives would do best to team up against the Liberals in the hopes that one of them might be able to climb on top from the sides if the centrist Liberal vote was sufficiently depressed.

As far as things in Outremont go (I live there), I don't think anyone has noticed yet. There aren't many signs up and there have been no calls for donations or invitations to events for any of the parties. I doubt there will be until the last couple weeks of August. Most of the voters are probably on vacation now, so even fundraisers would be poorly attended.

Two things to keep in mind about the race:
1. It will change drastically around the first week of September. That's when all the McGill/Concordia/UQAM/U de M students will return. You can bet one of the 'frosh events' will be cavassing duties.

2. This is still very much Liberal/Bloc country. The NDP may be doing well in Quebec historically, but it's still below the threshold of a single seat. The Bloc and the Liberals both *need* a strong showing in Quebec to stave off disaster - so you can bet they'll be pulling all the stops. Also, for all the talk of the Jewish vote and alleged (Norman Spector argues 'baseless') anti-Semitism, the riding is still predominantly weathy Francophones and second-generation immigrant families. These demographic groups have been reliable Bloc and Liberal bastions, respectively, for decades - even through the 2006 election that turned everything upside down in Quebec. The Conservatives and the NDP would be wise to remember that it's an uphill battle for both of them. The Greens are regrettably off the map as far as this election goes. If it's close enough, they may end up being spoilers for one party or another, but it would be by a couple thousand votes at most.

I agree it will be an uphill battle, but I do like what I am hearing. The Bloc candidate's a dud, the Liberal candidate was hand picked and controversial... Outremont is the NDP's best Quebec riding even though the NDP candidate barely campaigned in 2006 while Mulcair is working very hard... Jack Layton is the most popular leader in Montreal... and the NDP is the only party gaining in Quebec while the Liberals and the Bloc have dropped.  Certainly good signs that change may be coming. I wonder what factors existed that got Phil Edmondston elected?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder what factors existed that got Phil Edmondston elected?

IIRC the NDP were actually leading in the polls in Quebec at the time; the by-election happend during that strange period between Nationalists falling out of love with the PC's and the formation of the BQ. Edmondston was (and presumably is) a Nat.

[Verily]

I agree it will be an uphill battle, but I do like what I am hearing. The Bloc candidate's a dud, the Liberal candidate was hand picked and controversial... Outremont is the NDP's best Quebec riding even though the NDP candidate barely campaigned in 2006 while Mulcair is working very hard... Jack Layton is the most popular leader in Montreal... and the NDP is the only party gaining in Quebec while the Liberals and the Bloc have dropped.  Certainly good signs that change may be coming. I wonder what factors existed that got Phil Edmondston elected?

Edmonston was really a Bloquiste in NDP clothing. He was very strongly pro-independence and was elected mostly on a Quebec nationalist platform. The reason he refused to stand for reelection in 1993 was the NDP's official hardline federalist stance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also, for all the talk of the Jewish vote and alleged (Norman Spector argues 'baseless') anti-Semitism,

Of course, if Montreal Jews are anything like Jews over here, then they won't be swung away from their usual voting patterns (whatever they might be) and head off into the land of block-voting because of baseless allegations of anti-semitism or any such gimmicks.

If the allegations were (or in this case; are) true, things would likely be different o/c.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder what factors existed that got Phil Edmondston elected?

IIRC the NDP were actually leading in the polls in Quebec at the time; the by-election happend during that strange period between Nationalists falling out of love with the PC's and the formation of the BQ. Edmondston was (and presumably is) a Nat.

While Mulcair is no separatist, I do see a "falling out of love" with the Bloc these days.

[cp]

Coulon's statements are hardly more controversial than any of the stands taken by Mulclair on the same issue, or anything else he's happen to have done or said. The 'controversy' over Coulon stems from a single group that lodged a single protest - it's worth noting that no other Jewish groups have followed suit, nor have any Palestinian groups rushed to back Coulon. In short, the NDP's desire to make this a magic bullet that depresses Liberal support (which would be the only way the NDP could have a chance of coming close to winning) is bunk.

The NDP's hopes should be more closely pinned to the institutional and financial structure of the Liberal Party and how well it manages to organize for this election. If it's weak and the propagandistic pablum from the Conservatives about Dion is true, then the NDP has a good shot. That said, from what I've seen, the Liberals are doing a pretty good job: email canvassing, updates, recruitment for the final weeks, and show no obvious signs of incompetance or mismanagement.

As for the Bloc, there's definitely some fatigue with the brand, but no moreso than during the late 1990s when the Bloc stumbled in two elections from 54 seats to 38. The Bloc will probably be focussing their message against the Conservatives, anyway, and their constitutency across Quebec rarely overlaps with the NDP.

The Edmunston comparison is instructive. The NDP candidate won there because he successfully tapped into the burgeoning political question of the moment, seized it, and managed to pull off an upset. It was indicative of the political divisions that arose in later years and defined Quebec politics for much of the last 2 decades.

Mulclair is not in a position to repeat this. Afghanistan is the only topic that comes close to duplicating the political leverage that separatism had in the late 1980s, and its salience is considerably lower because:
a) it's a foreign issue, not domestic
b) it provokes a range of opinion (even in Quebec) that's more nuanced than the federalist/separatist divide, thus making a hardline stance on either side less tenable.

Mulclair does have the advantage of running for a party with the most consistent message on Afghanistan. Then again, the same could be said for the Conservative candidate.

Oh, and there is one other party that's gained support in Quebec since the 2006 election: The Greens, with almost double the support from 2004.

[Hatman 🍁]

Coulon's statements are hardly more controversial than any of the stands taken by Mulclair on the same issue, or anything else he's happen to have done or said. The 'controversy' over Coulon stems from a single group that lodged a single protest - it's worth noting that no other Jewish groups have followed suit, nor have any Palestinian groups rushed to back Coulon. In short, the NDP's desire to make this a magic bullet that depresses Liberal support (which would be the only way the NDP could have a chance of coming close to winning) is bunk.

The NDP is playing up this issue? That's news to me. It's been discussed perhaps, but as I said, the NDP's only chance to gain on this is by Liberals losing votes rather than the NDP gaining.

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How many former environment ministers do they have running in this by-election?

Antother thing that should be mentioned is that recent polls indicate the Quebec Liberals are now in third place, indicating the unpopularity of Jean Charest. Mulcair rebelling against them can only help.

[cp]

It's equally likely that people will remember Mulclair for his time in the Liberal government and hold it against him. Keep in mind that the image of the NDP is less well-defined in Quebec; this is not to say that switching to the NDP will be completely overlooked, but they may see the switch the same way lefties see people who switch from/to the Liberals to/from the Conservatives: same sh**t, different pile.

And you're right that the NDP hasn't been publically playing up the controversy. They've actually been rather shrewd in letting the controversy play out, as it can only benefit them. All I meant to imply was that the NDP would significantly gain from such a controversy, if it had any foundation.

I'm not sure you're entirely right about the NDP only needing the Liberals to lose seats in order for the NDP to win. The Bloc placed second in Outremont last time around, and it would take a significant drop in their numbers for the NDP result to produce a win. Even if 25% of the Liberal AND Bloc support went directly to the NDP, the NDP would only win by about 1500 votes (rough estimates). A shift like that would be earthshattering, and very likely to benefit solely the NDP candidate - the Conservatives increased their vote share by double what the NDP did in 2006.

Most likely, even if they ran a lacklustre campaign, either the Liberals or the Bloc will take the seat, although by a much narrower margin than last time.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's equally likely that people will remember Mulclair for his time in the Liberal government and hold it against him. Keep in mind that the image of the NDP is less well-defined in Quebec; this is not to say that switching to the NDP will be completely overlooked, but they may see the switch the same way lefties see people who switch from/to the Liberals to/from the Conservatives: same sh**t, different pile.

Kinda hard to "switch" to the NDP when it doesn't exist on the provincial level. I'm sure most people will not blame him for that. Many NDPers in Quebec probably vote Liberal on a provincial level anyways... whilst holding their noses.

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Remember, this is a by-election and they are known for their earth shattering changes in votes. I can come up with numerous examples of this, but I am sure you are aware. I think the foundations for a huge change are being set in this by-election.

[cp]

I think we're down to splitting hairs here.

Yes, you're very right that there are lots of by-elections that have produced upsets. But as you're no doubt aware, there are countless *other* by-elections that produced the status quo.

Whether or not these by-elections fall into the former or the latter category remains to be seen. There are definitely certain factors at play in Quebec and Canada that did not exist in 2006 and no doubt will influence the election, but without polls there's no way to tell how they're playing out on the ground. It's possible that there could be an upset - in any direction (Conservative landslide, anyone? *shudder*), but there have been similar conditions for potential change that never materialized. Look at the 1997 federal election, the 1999 Ontario provincial election, or the way that the 2006 election played out in places like PEI or BC.

All this to say that at the very least, you and I will be watching this election with the closest vision and god willing, one of us will be able to gloat over the other at the end of it (the alternative to that scenario, of course, being unthinkable).

[Hatman 🍁]

I think we're down to splitting hairs here.

Yes, you're very right that there are lots of by-elections that have produced upsets. But as you're no doubt aware, there are countless *other* by-elections that produced the status quo.

Whether or not these by-elections fall into the former or the latter category remains to be seen. There are definitely certain factors at play in Quebec and Canada that did not exist in 2006 and no doubt will influence the election, but without polls there's no way to tell how they're playing out on the ground. It's possible that there could be an upset - in any direction (Conservative landslide, anyone? *shudder*), but there have been similar conditions for potential change that never materialized. Look at the 1997 federal election, the 1999 Ontario provincial election, or the way that the 2006 election played out in places like PEI or BC.

All this to say that at the very least, you and I will be watching this election with the closest vision and god willing, one of us will be able to gloat over the other at the end of it (the alternative to that scenario, of course, being unthinkable).

Don't worry; the Conservatives wont win Outremont! Plus, I hate gloating, so can we agree not to do so?

We don't have any polls, but since you live in Outremont you will have a pretty good grasp of what's going on. Although, you're a tad biased, so I take what you say with a grain (well, maybe a few pounds- let's give you the benefit of the doubt) of salt

As for the other by-election, I don't see anything major there. None of the parties will be focusing any of their attention there except maybe the BQ.

[Verily]

Interesting tidbit about Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: The Bloc candidate, going by her name (Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac), is Thai. That would make her only the second Asian candidate to run for the Bloc (May Chiu, who ran against Paul Martin in 2006, was the first), and she's very likely to be elected.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting tidbit about Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: The Bloc candidate, going by her name (Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac), is Thai. That would make her only the second Asian candidate to run for the Bloc (May Chiu, who ran against Paul Martin in 2006, was the first), and she's very likely to be elected.

Her name sounds Vietnamese to me. And, the Bloc already has an Asian MP, Meili Faille.

[Hash]

The Neo Rhino is running, or planning on running a candidate in each of the 2 Quebec by-elections.

[Hatman 🍁]

There will also be a by-election on the same day in Roberval-Lac Saint Jean where the tories lost by 8% in 2006.

[Verily]

The PQ won the seat provincially, so it will be a really uphill battle for the Conservatives despite their good showing last time.

[Hash]

Swings for each of the 3 Québec by-elections:

Outremont
For a BQ gain from Lib: 3.16% swing Lib to BQ
For a NDP gain from Lib: 9% swing from Lib to NDP
For a Con gain from Lib: 11.15% swing from Lib to Con

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
For a Con gain from BQ: 15.6% swing from BQ to Con
Won't bother with the other ones

Roberval-Lac Saint-Jean
For a Con gain from BQ: 4.01% swing from BQ to Con
For a Lib gain from BQ: 37.45% swing from BQ to Lib

[Hash]

My predictions in Quebec:

Outremont: Liberal HOLD with NDP second
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: BQ HOLD
Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean: BQ HOLD

However, all incumbent parties will lose some votes.