Canadian by-elections

[Verily]

Outremont, QC
2006:
Jean Lapierre (LIB): 35.13%
Jacques Leonard (BQ): 28.81%
Leo-Paul Lauzon (NDP): 17.13%
Daniel Fournier (CON): 12.84%
Francois Pilon (GRN): 4.79%
Linda Sullivan (M-L): 0.43%
Phillip Paynter (PCN): 0.25%
Various Independents: 0.62%, total


Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot, QC
2006:
Yvan Loubier (BQ): 56.0%
Huguette Guilhamon (CON): 24.8%
Stephane Deschenes (LIB): 9.8%
Joelle Chevrier (NDP): 5.5%
Jacques Tetreault (GRN): 3.9%


Toronto Centre, ON
2006:
Bill Graham (LIB): 52.2%
Michael Shapcott (NDP): 23.74%
Lewis Reford (CON): 18.21%
Chris Tindal (GRN): 5.21%
Johan Boyden (COM): 0.20%
Michel Prairie (IND): 0.17%
Liz White (AAEVP): 0.12%
Philip Fernandez (M-L): 0.11%


Willowdale, ON
Jim Peterson (LIB): 55.3%
Jovan Boseovski (CON): 29.2%
Rochelle Carnegie (NDP): 11.4%
Sharolyn Vettese (GRN): 4.1%




The only seriously contested of these will be Outremont, where the NDP is running former provincial Liberal Thomas Mulcair, a former Minister in Charest's government. I would go so far as to say that the NDP is probably favored to take the seat despite historically poor NDP showings in Quebec. (They've only ever won a single seat there, in a by-election in 1990, and their MP was a strong Quebec nationalist pre-BQ, which is most of the reason he won.)

The others are mostly interesting for second place. The Conservatives will want to show that they can pull closer to the BQ in Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot, closer to the Liberals in Willowdale and ahead of the NDP in Toronto Centre; if they can't do any of these, it is highly unlikely that they will manage a majority at the next election. The NDP will want to improve its position in Toronto Centre, as will the Greens, who may manage to break into double digits in the riding given their national polling.

[Hatman 🍁]

The by-elections will not be on July 28; they have to be called before July 28.

FYI, there'll be by-elections in Willowdale, Vancouver Quadra and Roberval this year as well, except their members haven't actually resigned yet.

[Verily]

Jim Peterson (Willowdale) resigned yesterday. I had already included him.

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River will also have a by-election at some point, as Gary Merasty has announced his intent to resign in August. Vancouver Quadra will become vacant on July 27 (so will probably take place on the same day as the current vacancies). I've heard nothing about Gauthier planning to resign from Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean before the next election.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

AAEVP?

Anyway I hope to see the Green Party (AKA the Satan Party (C)Earl Andrew Washburn 2007) do well in their by-elections. And the conservatives to be humiliated royally. That is all.

[Hatman 🍁]

Jim Peterson (Willowdale) resigned yesterday. I had already included him.

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River will also have a by-election at some point, as Gary Merasty has announced his intent to resign in August. Vancouver Quadra will become vacant on July 27 (so will probably take place on the same day as the current vacancies). I've heard nothing about Gauthier planning to resign from Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean before the next election.

I've heard Gauthier plans on resigning. If he does, the Conservatives will try and target his seat as they were within 8% there in 2006.

AAEVP?

Anyway I hope to see the Green Party (AKA the Satan Party (C)Earl Andrew Washburn 2007) do well in their by-elections. And the conservatives to be humiliated royally. That is all.

I doubt they will; none of the ridings mentioned seem to be very Green worthy. Hopefuly the Greens are kept down in Outremont so as not to split off the NDP vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Article about the Environics poll that showed Layton on top in Montreal:

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=7c26ad7b-23b7-4afb-a0b8-68b7db5a4400&k=84891

And, can you blame them?

BTW, the AAEVP is this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Alliance_Environment_Voters_Party_of_Canada

[cp]

Oddly enough, the Green Party has started sending out calls for donations and volunteers for all the byelections. I think they were hoping it would occur during the summer so there would be a lot of students available for the campaigns, but that didn't stop them in London last year.

Unfortunately for the NDP, Outremont is probably the most likely place for Green Party rallying and support. The riding is squeezed between McGill University and the Plateau, both of them renowned for their lefty, greeny leanings.

[minionofmidas]

If the elections have to be called by July 28th, by which date will they have to be held?

[Hatman 🍁]

If the elections have to be called by July 28th, by which date will they have to be held?

I think there needs to be a 36 day campaign, so we're looking at the beginning of September at the earliest.

Oddly enough, the Green Party has started sending out calls for donations and volunteers for all the byelections. I think they were hoping it would occur during the summer so there would be a lot of students available for the campaigns, but that didn't stop them in London last year.

Unfortunately for the NDP, Outremont is probably the most likely place for Green Party rallying and support. The riding is squeezed between McGill University and the Plateau, both of them renowned for their lefty, greeny leanings.

I thought you were a Liberal? Now you're receiving calls from the Green Party?

It's true the Greens are polling well in Quebec, and it could be a factor in Outremont. How much of a factor remains to be seen. Of course, the Greens don't mind a Liberal victory one bit since their one in the same these days.

[cp]

Oh you adorably myopic politico: I'm a member of 5 political parties and receive updates from all of them! I guess you could say I'm doing comparative shopping. Unfortunately no party has offered any worthwhile products lately.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh you adorably myopic politico: I'm a member of 5 political parties and receive updates from all of them! I guess you could say I'm doing comparative shopping. Unfortunately no party has offered any worthwhile products lately.

Well, I don't know about the other parties, but if you're a member of the NDP (which I doubt you are), then you can't be a member of another party as well.

[cp]

It's an odd thing, only two parties in the Canadian political spectrum have rules about exclusive membership: the NDP and the Conservatives. Discuss.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's an odd thing, only two parties in the Canadian political spectrum have rules about exclusive membership: the NDP and the Conservatives. Discuss.

Neither party has a provincial party in Quebec, either. Surely if you're from Quebec, they'll let you join a provincial part as well. I think many tories are also adequistes. A friend of mine is a member of both the NDP and the ADQ

---

There's now a map of Outremont from the 2006 election in the gallery. Enjoy I should make one of Toronto Centre as well.

[cp]

Great map!

Just some observations on it:

The intense Liberal support in the north is from two neighbourhoods: Queen Mary (or TMR, depending on the boundary) and Parc Extension. Both are lower/middle class and increasingly immigrant populated, particularly Lebanese and Vietnamese. Parc Extension is also where a large contingent of Portugese live; however, 'Little Portugal' is located further south in the riding in the Plateau. That area is around where the NDP support shows up. The NDP support there is from the anglo student and artist communities in Mile End.

The Bloc support in Outremont (arrondissement, not riding) isn't surprising. It peters out towards the East where Parc Avenue starts and the Hassidic Jewish population begins to rise; that's where those three lone, light pink districts are shown. UdM and McGill districts are predictably Bloc and Liberal strongholds. The two districts won by the Conservatives are literally adjacent to the railroad tracks. I can't think why they'd have won those and not the similar areas adjacent and further west.

[Hatman 🍁]

Great map!

Just some observations on it:

The intense Liberal support in the north is from two neighbourhoods: Queen Mary (or TMR, depending on the boundary) and Parc Extension. Both are lower/middle class and increasingly immigrant populated, particularly Lebanese and Vietnamese. Parc Extension is also where a large contingent of Portugese live; however, 'Little Portugal' is located further south in the riding in the Plateau. That area is around where the NDP support shows up. The NDP support there is from the anglo student and artist communities in Mile End.

The Bloc support in Outremont (arrondissement, not riding) isn't surprising. It peters out towards the East where Parc Avenue starts and the Hassidic Jewish population begins to rise; that's where those three lone, light pink districts are shown. UdM and McGill districts are predictably Bloc and Liberal strongholds. The two districts won by the Conservatives are literally adjacent to the railroad tracks. I can't think why they'd have won those and not the similar areas adjacent and further west.

The Conservative areas were weird. I didn't expect them to win any polls, so I didn't have their key on the map to begin with.

I must say, the partisan hack I am; it was nice to see the NDP win so many polls. Unfortunately, most of it was concentrated in Mile End, but there were pockets of NDP support further south in the riding. 

Also, the amount of polls the Bloc won surprised me. I also made a map of Hull-Aylmer not too long ago, and the amount of polls the Bloc won there also surprised me.

[Hatman 🍁]

September 17th has been set as the date for Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot and Outremont.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've donated $100 to the Thomas Mulcair campaign. That means he'll lose for sure, since whenever I donate money, the candidate loses.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've donated $100 to the Thomas Mulcair campaign. That means he'll lose for sure, since whenever I donate money, the candidate loses.

Fool!

[Hatman 🍁]

I've donated $100 to the Thomas Mulcair campaign. That means he'll lose for sure, since whenever I donate money, the candidate loses.

Fool!

Ha! But, I'm not supersticious. Plus, I reckon $100 is equivelant to about 50 votes. That can do a lot.

A lot of New Democrats are pumped about this election; I dont feel that from the Liberals, despite Dion's legitimacy hanging on this race.

[Verily]

Duguay as the Conservative candidate has to have them down, too. The Conservatives will peel off a lot of Liberal voters, I suspect. The Bloc is likely to collapse completely, with a lot of their votes simply disappearing into the realm of apathy and most of the rest going NDP or Conservative (not Liberal). At one time, the Bloc might have stood a chance of winning this seat in a by-election; it's a sign of the times that they haven't even chosen a candidate yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

Duguay as the Conservative candidate has to have them down, too. The Conservatives will peel off a lot of Liberal voters, I suspect. The Bloc is likely to collapse completely, with a lot of their votes simply disappearing into the realm of apathy and most of the rest going NDP or Conservative (not Liberal). At one time, the Bloc might have stood a chance of winning this seat in a by-election; it's a sign of the times that they haven't even chosen a candidate yet.

Yes they have. However, he's not very notable in the least. He's a psychoanalyst. Jean-Paul Gilson
http://www.blocquebecois.org/fr/Dossiers/partielles2007/outremont.asp

[Verily]

Duguay as the Conservative candidate has to have them down, too. The Conservatives will peel off a lot of Liberal voters, I suspect. The Bloc is likely to collapse completely, with a lot of their votes simply disappearing into the realm of apathy and most of the rest going NDP or Conservative (not Liberal). At one time, the Bloc might have stood a chance of winning this seat in a by-election; it's a sign of the times that they haven't even chosen a candidate yet.

Yes they have. However, he's not very notable in the least. He's a psychoanalyst. Jean-Paul Gilson
http://www.blocquebecois.org/fr/Dossiers/partielles2007/outremont.asp

When did that happen? They hadn't chosen one last I checked. Oh well, an irrelevant candidate in a sea of strong candidates (well, Mulcair and Duguay at least, but the Conservatives can't actually win).

[Hatman 🍁]

Duguay as the Conservative candidate has to have them down, too. The Conservatives will peel off a lot of Liberal voters, I suspect. The Bloc is likely to collapse completely, with a lot of their votes simply disappearing into the realm of apathy and most of the rest going NDP or Conservative (not Liberal). At one time, the Bloc might have stood a chance of winning this seat in a by-election; it's a sign of the times that they haven't even chosen a candidate yet.

Yes they have. However, he's not very notable in the least. He's a psychoanalyst. Jean-Paul Gilson
http://www.blocquebecois.org/fr/Dossiers/partielles2007/outremont.asp

When did that happen? They hadn't chosen one last I checked. Oh well, an irrelevant candidate in a sea of strong candidates (well, Mulcair and Duguay at least, but the Conservatives can't actually win).

Well, Coulon, Duguay are both high profile candidates. Mulcair is- at least from the NDP stand point a "star candidate", and is higher then the other two no matter how you look at it. Gilson is neither.

I believe Gilson was picked last week or perhaps the week before, although it wasn't big news since he's your typical Bloc candidate- not very high profile. Of course, they typical Bloc candidate usually wins, as they hold most of the seats in Quebec, but I don't think it will help them in Outremont.

To make matters worse for the Liberals, Coulon has angered the Jewish population of the riding (which is at 10%) due to anti-semetic comments he has made in the past.  While these Jews wont vote for the NDP so much, they will probably vote Conservative, helping us out. The winning party may barely get over 30% in this one!

[Hash]

Are the Greens running anyone in anything?

[Hatman 🍁]

Are the Greens running anyone in anything?

Probably, but they are irrelevant