How much does Biden need to win the PV by to win the election?

[Tekken_Guy]

How much does Biden need to win the PV by to win the election?

[xavier110]

He will definitely be able to hold the electoral college with a smaller margin in PV versus 2020. My guess is somewhere around 1.5-2.5 is the sweet spot.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

5+ would likely seal it for him.
>4, should also be enough imo, but still somewhat risky because Trump's advantage could increase again like it did between 2016 and 2020, although its fairly unlikely.

3.5 is the exact mid point of the 2016 and 2020 EC advantage, so Biden should hope for at least somewhere in the 3-4 range. Anything below 3, though is tossup at best for him and at 2.5 or less, Trump starts becoming favored.

The reason Trump has the EC advantage is because he has an overwhelming advantage with non-college educated white voters which are disproportionately over-represented in the way the electoral college and the swing states are set up. It doesn't really have much to do with minorities or white suburbanites. In fact, Romney dominated with the latter group but Obama still had the EC advantage due to his WWC appeal. Biden might be able to claw 1 point or so from Trump, but to get a big shift in the EC he is going to need a large swing with that specific demographic.

One thing worth noting is on election night there will be almost no way of telling what the popular vote actually is. In fact, we will likely know who won the election with which states before we even get a general idea of the PV ballpark which will happen a few days later.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Three to four points.

[holtridge]

Four points or greater.

[axiomsofdominion]

2-3 points is the sweet spot where Biden probably wins but ideally you'd like to be up 4-5. Under 2 is super risky.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Navigation poll has it 48/44 he needs to win it by 5%, like last time

[Sir Mohamed]

Around 3 pts.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's sad we are even having this conversation and that we can elect a president who loses the popular vote by 3%

[Mr. Smith]

If some of these polls are to be believed, Trump might actually lose with the popular vote.

[Stranger in a strange land]

NY, CA, FL, and probably TX will all swing R, so he might not even need to win the PV, or at most only needs to win it by 1% or so. I voted 0-1% in the poll.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

3 to 4.

[morgankingsley]

Ill be charitable and say 2.5 because I could see that being enough depending on the state