How does Trump do in Texas?

[Radicalneo]

This should be an interesting one.

[seskoog]

Better than 2020, but worse than 2016.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

At this point it looks like worse than 2016 but still better than 2020. He will likely improve with hispanic voters across the state and other minorities like blacks and asians in the Houston and DFW areas. Biden will do better in the Austin area though. I'll go with Trump+7.3 since it's the exact midpoint between his 2016 and 2020 margins.

[iceman]

Better than both 2016 and 2020.

around 10%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump by 8

[President Johnson]

About the same, give or take a point.

[dw93]

He does about as well as he did in 2020. He gains with Hispanics but enough suburban white women voting Democratic over abortion balances it out.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump by double digits unless you believe the crosstabs gang aren't being hackish

[Progressive Pessimist]

Better than 2020, but worse than 2016.

I agree with this: Trump+6 or 7.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump by double digits unless you believe the crosstabs gang aren't being hackish

I mean if you assume the PV is tied then Trump +9 would just be a one point trend towards the democrats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think people overestimate how much Hispanics actually swing Texas statewide - Texas Hispanics are a very low turnout group so even if they make up ~40% of the population, they likely don't even constitute as 30% of the TX electorate in a normal cycle - heck maybe not even 25%.

This is why the very aggressive Hispanic swings we saw in Houston and RGV were pretty easily muted by other shifts. If the battle is left-shifting suburbs vs Hispanics, left-shifting suburbs will always win.

I think Trump carries TX by ~4% right now.

[Spectator]

I think people overestimate how much Hispanics actually swing Texas statewide - Texas Hispanics are a very low turnout group so even if they make up ~40% of the population, they likely don't even constitute as 30% of the TX electorate in a normal cycle - heck maybe not even 25%.

This is why the very aggressive Hispanic swings we saw in Houston and RGV were pretty easily muted by other shifts. If the battle is left-shifting suburbs vs Hispanics, left-shifting suburbs will always win.

I think Trump carries TX by ~4% right now.

I second basically all of this. People put way too much emphasis on the power of the hispanic vote when they…don’t vote in significant numbers. Texas still swung 4 points left in 2020 despite the shift in the RGV, and for whatever reason people gloss over that and instead focus on counties that make up less than 2% of the statewide electorate. Texas is not Florida.

[Christian Man]

He's almost certain to do better than in 2020 and has a good chance of doing better than in 2016, but I doubt he'd do as well as Romney did.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think if Trump improves on his Texas showing it will be less because of the RGV than because of a turnout dropoff in the urban cores of the major metros.

[PeteB]

Worse than 2016 but he still likely wins by 4-7%.

[iceman]

He will get numbers closer to Paxton and Abbott. Didn’t the state GOP there passed a sweeping voter restriction law in 2021?

People here seem to underestimate Trump’s voting margin in Texas and Florida. If Trump is leading or tied in the PV he is most likely to pad his votes from these 2 states rather than Biden shrinking in California. Whereelse would he get it then if he is going to be ahead 1-2 points in the PV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds aren't focused on TX they are now focused on Powell surge Biden loses it by 11

I see no Allred supporters are thinking he still has a chance

[pbrower2a]

Demographics alone suggest a bare Trump win in 2024. 2-3% margin. The Mexican-American electorate is growing, and Trump is gaining little. Millions of people leaning Democratic are moving into Texas, which is increasingly becoming a microcosm of America.

[SnowLabrador]

Better than 2016 given his national polling.

[EastwoodS]

Demographics alone suggest a bare Trump win in 2024. 2-3% margin. The Mexican-American electorate is growing, and Trump is gaining little. Millions of people leaning Democratic are moving into Texas, which is increasingly becoming a microcosm of America.

No they aren’t

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schumer has stopped sending out emails to donate to Allred, he is sending out emails contesting not the state of FL in P but Debbie Powell the S race.

He has declared TX Safe R but FL S Tossup

[ProgressiveModerate]

Demographics alone suggest a bare Trump win in 2024. 2-3% margin. The Mexican-American electorate is growing, and Trump is gaining little. Millions of people leaning Democratic are moving into Texas, which is increasingly becoming a microcosm of America.

No they aren’t

Demographics alone do; if you assume no one is changing their vote from 2020 and turnout dynamics stay the same, the state would narrow a bit just from Dem and Dem-shifting communities outgrowing GOP communities.

However, in practice, there will be vote flippers and turnout dynamics will change - both factors I think will slightly benefit Trump relative to 2020 in Texas.

[TDAS04]

Better than 2016 in the sense that he’ll receive all of the state’s electoral votes.

[DS0816]

+11

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Demographics alone suggest a bare Trump win in 2024. 2-3% margin. The Mexican-American electorate is growing, and Trump is gaining little. Millions of people leaning Democratic are moving into Texas, which is increasingly becoming a microcosm of America.

No they aren’t

Demographics alone do; if you assume no one is changing their vote from 2020 and turnout dynamics stay the same, the state would narrow a bit just from Dem and Dem-shifting communities outgrowing GOP communities.

However, in practice, there will be vote flippers and turnout dynamics will change - both factors I think will slightly benefit Trump relative to 2020 in Texas.

Allred ran a horrible campaign and it's a shame no one is defending him