Is Biden uniquely weak, or Trump uniquely strong?

[SnowLabrador]

In this election cycle we've seen a striking disconnect where it looks like Democrats are headed for at least a good year downballot, with swing-state Senate Democrats comfortably ahead (with the exception of Michigan), the generic ballot tending to be a few points in favor of the blue team, and even Brown and Tester staying in the hunt. However, Biden is persistently narrowly behind in the NPV polling averages, to the point that even his opponent's felony conviction doesn't appear to have helped him much. We could see a level of ticket-splitting that's very uncommon in the modern era.

So is Biden uniquely weak, or is Trump uniquely strong?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I actually don't think either is as true as polling would suggests. I think there are several variables at play here:

1. Trump just has much higher name recognition than your generic R congressional candidate so him running ahead of them isn't necessarily him being stronger, just him better having better name recognition.

2. For Biden, Dems/left-leaners answering polling are more willing to say they're undecided or whatever as a form of light opposition, even if they plan to vote for him (perhaps begrudgingly) in the end.

Overall, I think we'll see some notable Dems run ahead of Biden (i.e. Tester, Brown, Casey), but it won't be nearly as universal or lopsided of a phenomenon as many on here seem to think.

[iceman]

Trump is not really that strong, It’s just that Biden is seen so weak and frail by the electorate.

[Radicalneo]

The second. Where would Desantis be if he had Trump’s baggage?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I like Trump, but he isn't some super strong candidate. Half the country hates his guts and he is a very polarizing figure in those regards. While he does have appeal to voters no other Republican does, he also turns off many suburbanites or moderates which is a counterweight. I don't think DeSantis would be in a good position against Biden right now, but Nikki Haley would be absolutely cooking him. If you were to examine the entire 2024 GOP field, Trump is probably average when it comes to electoral appeal which may be surprising, but people like Burgum or Haley would have had a much easier time against Biden while DeSantis would be struggling more.

But the only reason the whole paragraph is based on is that Biden is uniquely awful. His approval rating is the lowest for any first term incumbent at this point, the economy is viewed sourly by voters due to inflation, his messaging is absolutely awful, etc. Someone like Obama would not even be in this position to begin with along with having higher approval.

I think one of the biggest problems for Biden is just that he is really old. He looks old, speaks softly when he's not on weird rants, squints his eyes,  acts startled and confused, and often times looks like he has mentally checked out. Most people don't think he has dementia, but old people still start losing that spark they once have and slow down. It should be understandable that a country with an average age in the 30's doesn't want someone to be the commander in chief in their mid 80's. (Biden would be 86 if he finishes his second term). Kamala Harris is incredibly unlikeable, and in the case that Biden does not finish his term the copilot who is taking over is some annoying cringe woman who was primarily picked for her race and gender.

[xavier110]

I like Trump, but he isn't some super strong candidate. Half the country hates his guts and he is a very polarizing figure in those regards. While he does have appeal to voters no other Republican does, he also turns off many suburbanites or moderates which is a counterweight. I don't think DeSantis would be in a good position against Biden right now, but Nikki Haley would be absolutely cooking him. If you were to examine the entire 2024 GOP field, Trump is probably average when it comes to electoral appeal which may be surprising, but people like Burgum or Haley would have had a much easier time against Biden while DeSantis would be struggling more.

But the only reason the whole paragraph is based on is that Biden is uniquely awful. His approval rating is the lowest for any first term incumbent at this point, the economy is viewed sourly by voters due to inflation, his messaging is absolutely awful, etc. Someone like Obama would not even be in this position to begin with along with having higher approval.

I think one of the biggest problems for Biden is just that he is really old. He looks old, speaks softly when he's not on weird rants, squints his eyes,  acts startled and confused, and often times looks like he has mentally checked out. Most people don't think he has dementia, but old people still start losing that spark they once have and slow down. It should be understandable that a country with an average age in the 30's doesn't want someone to be the commander in chief in their mid 80's. (Biden would be 86 if he finishes his second term). Kamala Harris is incredibly unlikeable, and in the case that Biden does not finish his term the copilot who is taking over is some annoying cringe woman who was primarily picked for her race and gender.

Yeah, I’m politically your opposite but co-sign this.

I am also less sanguine than others (like post above) who think Dem learners are simply expressing disapproval of Biden by saying they’re undecided or voting third party and will fall eventually in line. People really have zero faith in him. They need to make this a race based on values/character, of which Trump has none. However, this is what makes me think Biden at least still has a path and potential upside.

Talking about the economy or how great life is in Biden’s America is misguided and delusional, and I think hardens these anti-Biden voters’ decision to sit out or cast a protest vote. (And the swing state Dems who won in 22 didn’t really do that — they mostly ran on abortion, democracy, and how ridiculous their opponents were.)

[DaleCooper]

1. Trump just has much higher name recognition than your generic R congressional candidate so him running ahead of them isn't necessarily him being stronger, just him better having better name recognition.

I think part of it is that the Republican Party has genuinely gotten a lot worse in the four years since Trump lost. If even I have to hesitate for a second before deciding whether Trump is worse than your average House Republican, then I imagine swing voters think of him significantly more positively than DeSantis or JD Vance or whatever monstrosities the GOP might run instead of him.

[Agonized-Statism]

Talking about the economy or how great life is in Biden’s America is misguided and delusional, and I think hardens these anti-Biden voters’ decision to sit out or cast a protest vote. (And the swing state Dems who won in 22 didn’t really do that — they mostly ran on abortion, democracy, and how ridiculous their opponents were.)

This. Couldn't have said it better myself. Biden could definitely still win, but he's done if his campaign is really gonna stick with this toxic "everything is fine, the base needs to shut up" angle.

Regarding OP, it's both. Trump has a uniquely high floor with his ride-or-die base, and we're still not quite sure if anyone else would be able to keep the party out of its Obama era wilderness like he can. He's polarizing, but that's not as much of an issue for him because his coalition isn't as broad and rickety. On the other hand, even after you account for potential issues with age or dissatisfaction with the administration, Biden personally has just never been a good candidate:

It’s important to note that Biden flamed out spectacularly in 1988. Biden also didn’t come close to Obama and Hillary in 2008. Biden started out far, far ahead of Bernie, Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar in 2020, only to bomb so atrociously in both Iowa and New Hampshire when they saw him up close and personal, that he ended up in 4th and 5th place, having to be saved by Obama convincing the non-Bernie candidates to coalesce after South Carolina. Biden also started with a once in a lifetime anti-incumbent advantage when the Coronavirus was upon us, only to nearly blow it in a close shave in the electoral college in November. I’ve seen some posters here claim Biden is a good campaigner…but he really isn’t, and this time around he is playing defense in a cycle where you do *NOT* want to be playing defense, where you do NOT want to be the scapegoat for economic woes, disasters abroad, frustrations with immigration, et cetera.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Our population is uniquely stupid.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think it's a combination, although the pre-Covid revisionism of things being better under Trump is odd, particularly coming from people who opposed him at the time. Prices may have been lower, but many people were still struggling to get by then as well. If Obamacare was repealed, that would've created a dumpster fire that I'm glad didn't happen because at it is there are too many people who have no access health insurance under the current system.

[TechbroMBA]

The stoppable force meets the moveable object.

[Fusternino]

Trump is uniquely weak. He is up by 1-2 at most in the polls when globally there is a massive anti-incumbent wave.

[HisGrace]

Biden's approvals are 40% or worse. An actual strong candidate would be on his way to an outright majority of the PV and 350ish EVs against that.

[BlueSwan]

Obvious answer: Biden is uniquely weak due to his age.

If Biden was 10 years younger he'd be winning - probably with ease.
If democrats had nominated a solid fresh candidate, they'd be winning.

Democrats somehow found a way to lose a presidential election in a good economic climate to a wannabe dictator, convicted felon and narcissistic sociopath.

Well done, democrats.

[President Johnson]

Obvious answer: Biden is uniquely weak due to his age.

If Biden was 10 years younger he'd be winning - probably with ease.
If democrats had nominated a solid fresh candidate, they'd be winning.

Democrats somehow found a way to lose a presidential election in a good economic climate to a wannabe dictator, convicted felon and narcissistic sociopath.

Well done, democrats.

I just learned that my notebook's taskbar is apparently broken, because November 5 hasn't passed yet.

I honestly think it's quite laughable to assume millions of voters would come out of the woodwork and vote for a 71-year old Biden or another Democrat that otherwise don't, if you truly believe Biden is done at this point. The constant dooming is really tiresome. There might be an argument to say Trump is slightly favored as of today, but let's not pretend the outcome is a done deal.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Both, actually.  Trump's strength is amazing, given how he has (A) completed the consolidation of the GOP, which began in 2016 as something of a Hostile Takeover, and (B) has actually persuaded about half of the population of his arguments, not only on his positions, but on him, his actions, his current predicament, etc.  

Trump, however, would not be in the position he were in now were Biden not the weakest incumbent of my lifetime.  His accomplishments are not accomplishments that have popular support, his foreign policies have (in the minds of people) contributed to a World On Fire that wasn't so when Trump was President.  And Biden appears to be too old for the job.  The people going on TV to say otherwise, to say that Biden is amazingly sharp and has an amazing grip of facts are beclowning themselves.  Biden's gaffes contribute to the beclowning.  Biden was a man that utterly demolished Sarah Palin in debate in 2008; he WAS on his game then, and he WAS convincing.  He would have been OK in 2016 (and might have been a better President if elected then).  But we're not there.  Biden is old, weak, and ordinary people believe that others are making key decisions, and that perception not only won't go away; it's also coldly logical.  

I've posted this already, but I do believe that a brokered convention producing a new candidate is what the Democrats need.  It's a high risk strategy, but it's the kind of strategy that, while producing a massive loss, could also produce a massive win; it would shake up the system that much.  It will certainly not produce the status quo, and the status quo is unfavorable to the Democrats where, from a horse race point of view, should not be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OUTPARTY usually does good in midterms and Prez eDays but Harris is a mediocre VP and users wanted a female VP, if Biden took Mark Warner or Sherrod Brown as VP he would be in a stronger position

The average amount of seats an OUTPARTY usually takes are 20H seats and 3 Sen seats look how well Rs performance in H in 2012 it was 2012 according to OUTPARTY standards the Rs are the ones underperforming

[Obama24]

Both of them are historical flukes. Trump would never be President if Hillary Clinton was a better campaigner and didn't take the Rust Belt for granted. Biden would never be President if not for Trump being President and a pandemic. Trump is only 'strong' because Biden has entirely mismanaged his presidency and image. Biden had he done a better job of optics and PR could easily be looking at the best election results since 2008 - he really SHOULD be - and I think another Democrat WOULD be. So I have to vote that Biden's uniquely weak. He's a poor candidate and really always was. He just lucked out that the biggest disadvantage an incumbent could face since Vietnam was presided over by his opponent.

[DS0816]

In this election cycle we've seen a striking disconnect where it looks like Democrats are headed for at least a good year downballot...

I don’t see it exactly that way.

A number of U.S. Senate races are polling favorably, in part, because numerous states have not held the primaries to determine nominations. (There is less attention to them by comparison to U.S. President.)

I am in leading bellwether state Michigan. Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, first elected in 2000, has opted for retirement. The nominations will not happen until August.

My state is not alone.

So, I think it is a little too early with the downballot races which include U.S. Senate matchups.

[darklordoftech]

Biden also started with a once in a lifetime anti-incumbent advantage when the Coronavirus was upon us, only to nearly blow it in a close shave in the electoral college in November.

And pundits blamed the Democratic base instead of blaming Biden.

[Agonized-Statism]

Both, actually.  Trump's strength is amazing, given how he has (A) completed the consolidation of the GOP, which began in 2016 as something of a Hostile Takeover, and (B) has actually persuaded about half of the population of his arguments, not only on his positions, but on him, his actions, his current predicament, etc.

More than that- he's shifted the entire Overton Window. Democrats wouldn't run an unabashedly pro-free trade, pro-immigration, pro-progressive social movements campaign like Clinton did in 2016 today. The tension is around how Trump implements his agenda more than the items on it.

[David Hume]

1. Trump just has much higher name recognition than your generic R congressional candidate so him running ahead of them isn't necessarily him being stronger, just him better having better name recognition.

I think part of it is that the Republican Party has genuinely gotten a lot worse in the four years since Trump lost. If even I have to hesitate for a second before deciding whether Trump is worse than your average House Republican, then I imagine swing voters think of him significantly more positively than DeSantis or JD Vance or whatever monstrosities the GOP might run instead of him.

Swing voters in FL clearly disagree with you.

[DaleCooper]

1. Trump just has much higher name recognition than your generic R congressional candidate so him running ahead of them isn't necessarily him being stronger, just him better having better name recognition.

I think part of it is that the Republican Party has genuinely gotten a lot worse in the four years since Trump lost. If even I have to hesitate for a second before deciding whether Trump is worse than your average House Republican, then I imagine swing voters think of him significantly more positively than DeSantis or JD Vance or whatever monstrosities the GOP might run instead of him.

Swing voters in FL clearly disagree with you.

I doubt swing voters in the other 49 states do.

[HisGrace]

Both, actually.  Trump's strength is amazing, given how he has (A) completed the consolidation of the GOP, which began in 2016 as something of a Hostile Takeover, and (B) has actually persuaded about half of the population of his arguments, not only on his positions, but on him, his actions, his current predicament, etc.

More than that- he's shifted the entire Overton Window. Democrats wouldn't run an unabashedly pro-free trade, pro-immigration, pro-progressive social movements campaign like Clinton did in 2016 today. The tension is around how Trump implements his agenda more than the items on it.

Biden is pro immigration and pro progressive social movement and there's still no scenario where they'd nominate someone who wasn't. They are going to soft pedal it on trade for the forseeable future but that has as much to do with Sanders 16 campaign revealing the Dems were more divided on it than they thought as it does with Trump. 

[henster]

I think Biden was always a weak candidate if the pandemic didn't happen I absolutely believe he would've lost.