Will the rust belt trio all vote the same way?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will the rust belt trio all vote the same way in November?

[Old Man Willow]

Biden wins MI, Trump wins PA/WI.

[cherry mandarin]

Probably, since their respective margins were already so close to one another's in 2020 and especially 2016.

[SnowLabrador]

Biden wins MI, Trump wins PA/WI.

Interesting. I think Michigan is the least likely to stay Biden, but that they all flip to Trump in the end.

[dspNY]

Biden wins MI, Trump wins PA/WI.

Interesting. I think Michigan is the least likely to stay Biden, but that they all flip to Trump in the end.

I believe it’s the opposite. Michigan is the most likely to stay blue as it had the largest margin of victory for Biden in 2020 and is traditionally the bluest of the 3 states in question. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are more likely to flip as they were within a point in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden wins MI, Trump wins PA/WI.

Interesting. I think Michigan is the least likely to stay Biden, but that they all flip to Trump in the end.

I believe it’s the opposite. Michigan is the most likely to stay blue as it had the largest margin of victory for Biden in 2020 and is traditionally the bluest of the 3 states in question. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are more likely to flip as they were within a point in 2020.

Lol MC has it Biden 1

[cherry mandarin]

I believe it’s the opposite. Michigan is the most likely to stay blue as it had the largest margin of victory for Biden in 2020 and is traditionally the bluest of the 3 states in question. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are more likely to flip as they were within a point in 2020.

PA was Biden +1.2 but point taken. Nonetheless I think MI could easily vote to the right of one or both of WI and PA. They voted only about half a point apart in 2016 and around 2 points apart in 2020. Polling so far this cycle also suggests this is a possibility.

Demographically MI looks more promising for the GOP than the other two, as its trends are ripe for further Trump gains. The Gaza issue will likely also hurt Biden in MI even if some posters here may be overstating its potential impact at the moment.

[Tekken_Guy]

I believe it’s the opposite. Michigan is the most likely to stay blue as it had the largest margin of victory for Biden in 2020 and is traditionally the bluest of the 3 states in question. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are more likely to flip as they were within a point in 2020.

PA was Biden +1.2 but point taken. Nonetheless I think MI could easily vote to the right of one or both of WI and PA. They voted only about half a point apart in 2016 and around 2 points apart in 2020. Polling so far this cycle also suggests this is a possibility.

Demographically MI looks more promising for the GOP than the other two, as its trends are ripe for further Trump gains. The Gaza issue will likely also hurt Biden in MI even if some posters here may be overstating its potential impact at the moment.

Polling earlier this year suggested Michigan would be Trump’s best state of the trio, but now Pennsylvania is polling the best for him.

I feel that if Trump’s made enough gains with minorities to flip MI he’s already flipped PA and WI. Trump won PA’s white vote in 2020 by more than he did MI’s so gains with minorities alone won’t be enough to move MI to the right of PA. WI is a bit different as Trump won the white vote there by less than MI/PA, but the point where MI moves right of WI on the back of minority shifts, Trump’s already won both states.

Also the Gaza issue is very much overstated, Arabs are only 1% of the vote in MI and netted Biden only about half a point on his 2020 margin at best.

[It’s so Joever]

Trump wins Wisconsin, Biden wins MI and PA. However they all are incredibly close and have a less than 1% margin of victory.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Biden wins WI, Trump wins the other 2

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden wins WI, Trump wins the other 2

Reverse is more likely.

[Aliens]

I think that MI/WI/PA will vote for Biden