Who carries IA-03 Presidentially?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This was a district that voted for Obama twice that Trump flipped in 2016 by ~3%, and then he only won it by just under 1500 votes in 2020. This is the one district in IA where trends haven't been quite as brutal for Dems largely because of the presence of Des Moines - the state capital and largest city which has seen some decent growth.

In 2022, Cindy Axne narrowly lost her house seat here to Zach Nunn, but 3 statewide Dems still carried the district (AG, Treasurer, & Auditor).

The House race here is expected to be competitive again in 2024, so who carries it Presidentially could matter a lot.

Who wins the district in 2024?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

IA-03 flipping R is pretty shocking in hindsight considering what happened in virtually every other Midwestern competitive house seat. Maybe it was better candidate quality but it seemed like a red wave actually touched Iowa in 2022. But Trump will probably carry the seat due to Iowa swinging right again and zero presence of the Biden campaign in the state.

[wnwnwn]

Dems should invest in the House race here, but its likely its rural areas will trend right again. I think Iowa will become a 11t o 14+R% state in the long term (Unless dems can make gains with farmers again...)