UK Election 2010

[rob in cal]

I'm wondering about UKIP supporters.  In 2005, the party won 2.2% of the vote, and I believe there were some seats without UKIP candidates.  In a close election, where a few seats might give or take away a Tory majority, I wonder if some potential UKIP supporters in some marginal seats might vote Tory instead. I'm guessing that of the big three parties the Tories would be closer to UKIP than the others. 

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Now it seems less than 30 constituencies will start counting Friday morning. Sunderland Central now counting Thursday so may be first to declare.

I doubt that.  There are local elections in Sunderland this time so they will have to spend some extra time separating the general and local ballot papers.

My suspicion is that Torbay or one of the Hamilton seats will declare first.

[You kip if you want to...]

I wonder if this'll gain any traction.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/04/15/david-cameron-embarrassed-by-his-gushing-praise-of-gordon-brown-as-awesome-115875-22186713/

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm wondering about UKIP supporters.  In 2005, the party won 2.2% of the vote, and I believe there were some seats without UKIP candidates.  In a close election, where a few seats might give or take away a Tory majority, I wonder if some potential UKIP supporters in some marginal seats might vote Tory instead. I'm guessing that of the big three parties the Tories would be closer to UKIP than the others. 

There really aren't too many real UKIP supporters, AFAIK. Most are Tory protest voters.

[afleitch]

I'm wondering about UKIP supporters.  In 2005, the party won 2.2% of the vote, and I believe there were some seats without UKIP candidates.  In a close election, where a few seats might give or take away a Tory majority, I wonder if some potential UKIP supporters in some marginal seats might vote Tory instead. I'm guessing that of the big three parties the Tories would be closer to UKIP than the others. 

There really aren't too many real UKIP supporters, AFAIK. Most are Tory protest voters.

Not necessarily true. Look at the pattern of UKIP support in the Euros. Look at Hull....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose there's likely to be a difference in UKIP support in European and General Elections. Though, yeah, all you can really say about UKIP support in the former is that they are white protest voters. Some very odd patterns in some areas, actually.

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm wondering about UKIP supporters.  In 2005, the party won 2.2% of the vote, and I believe there were some seats without UKIP candidates.  In a close election, where a few seats might give or take away a Tory majority, I wonder if some potential UKIP supporters in some marginal seats might vote Tory instead. I'm guessing that of the big three parties the Tories would be closer to UKIP than the others. 

There really aren't too many real UKIP supporters, AFAIK. Most are Tory protest voters.

Tory protest and middle/upper-class Labour protest votes or the working class who aren't racist enough to vote BNP.

[rob in cal]

I don't want to take away interest in the Atlas Forum, but are there any good political forums in Britain focusing on the upcoming elections? 

[You kip if you want to...]

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Good lord.

[k-onmmunist]

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Good lord.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think it's safe to say that neither Labour nor Conservative will agree to a debate at the next election.

I'd love to be inside Labour or Conservative HQ at this moment. Must be utter melt-down.

[You kip if you want to...]

Breaking news: Nokia flys out of Labour campaign bus window.

[afleitch]

May I just say; I have no idea what the hell is going on now. All I can recommend is that Labour and the Tories call a truce for the next week!

[k-onmmunist]

I think it's safe to say that neither Labour nor Conservative will agree to a debate at the next election.

I'd love to be inside Labour or Conservative HQ at this moment. Must be utter melt-down.

Ah, to be a fly on the wall... and hear the panicking in both.

[You kip if you want to...]

May I just say; I have no idea what the hell is going on now. All I can recommend is that Labour and the Tories call a truce for the next week!

I concur. Both parties stand to lose alot from a surging LibDem party. David Cameron could go down in history as a bigger loser than Neil Kinnock and then be stabbed in the back by the Conservative powers-that-be and Gordon Brown stands to become Labour's Lloyd George.

I'd much rather see a Tory majority, even of 100 seats or some landslide like that, than a Labour Party in third place.

[Хahar 🤔]

You're overreacting just a little, don't you think?

[You kip if you want to...]

You're overreacting just a little, don't you think?

Yes. I probably am.

[Phony Moderate]

If Labour do end up coming in third place, and getting the biggest number of seats in a hung parliament, we would have the very definition of a constitutional crisis.

[afleitch]

I am confident at the moment that the Tories will be the largest party. If the polls revert back to something broadly similar I think that with a 6 or 7pt lead over Labour and the Lib Dems back in the early 20's they will win a majority.

It may even be possible that if the gap is 6/7 between the Tories and Labour with the Lib Dems inbetween that the Tories could win comfortably. Or not. Or Nick Clegg could ascend into heaven. Who knows.

If it stays like this all the models as bad as they were to start off with will have to be chucked....or I will be studying the 1979 and 1983 elections very carefully.....

[Јas]

I'd much rather see a Tory majority, even of 100 seats or some landslide like that, than a Labour Party in third place.

What do you mean 3rd place? The charming electoral system surely means that numbers such as these still leave the LibDems dwarfed by both Tories and Labour.

[afleitch]

If Labour do end up coming in third place, and getting the biggest number of seats in a hung parliament, we would have the very definition of a constitutional crisis.

Quite. If Labour need the Lib Dems the Libs will only do so if they rush through an STV bill ASAP. Oh and ditch Brown. If the Lib Dems accept then they are probably f-cked as a party in the polls, the coalition will dissolve after 18 months and we'll have another election.

If that is the case Cameron won't be leading them. Step forward Michael Gove.

[Phony Moderate]

I am confident at the moment that the Tories will be the largest party. If the polls revert back to something broadly similar I think that with a 6 or 7pt lead over Labour and the Lib Dems back in the early 20's they will win a majority.

It may even be possible that if the gap is 6/7 between the Tories and Labour with the Lib Dems inbetween that the Tories could win comfortably. Or not. Or Nick Clegg could ascend into heaven. Who knows.

If it stays like this all the models as bad as they were to start off with will have to be chucked....or I will be studying the 1979 and 1983 elections very carefully.....

According to Anthony Wells, the UNS was pretty accurate in 1983. The Tories had a bigger lead of course, but still....

[You kip if you want to...]

I'd much rather see a Tory majority, even of 100 seats or some landslide like that, than a Labour Party in third place.

What do you mean 3rd place? The charming electoral system surely means that numbers such as these still leave the LibDems dwarfed by both Tories and Labour.

I know that. But the collapse in popular support with a third place finish would lead to quite a few MPs defecting to the LibDems, I think, certainly some of of these backbenchers who've been trying to get rid of Brown since he became PM. Should there be a mass defection (like in the 80s with the SDP), confidence in the party is (even further) lost.

[Хahar 🤔]

I'd much rather see a Tory majority, even of 100 seats or some landslide like that, than a Labour Party in third place.

What do you mean 3rd place? The charming electoral system surely means that numbers such as these still leave the LibDems dwarfed by both Tories and Labour.

I know that. But the collapse popular support, and a third place finish would lead to quite a few MPs defecting to the LibDems, I think, certainly some of of these backbenchers who've been trying to get rid of Brown since he became PM. Should there be a mass defection (like in the 80s with the SDP), confidence in the party is (even further) lost.

Remember 1983, man.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think that discussing potential constitutional crises and the collapse of the party system as we know it off the back of a poll conducted immediately after the first debate of this kind in the U.K is, as Xahar rightly pointed out, perhaps over-reacting a tad. It is, after all, after midnight and probably none of us is thinking especially clearly

There are two things that we need to keep in mind. The first is that we will almost certainly see many more bizarre polls and weirdly steep poll movements over the next couple of weeks (many will be caused simply by MoE and unavoidable sampling errors) and if we reacted to all of them in this way... well, yeah. The second is that it is highly unlikely that anything major has shifted under the surface. Swing voters... well... swing, you know. And respond to 'events' in a way that 'normal' voters don't - something that feeds neatly into the first point. There are two more debates to come and the newspapers will now give more attention to the LibDems. Both of those things lead into the first point as well, of course

Shorter Al: get some sleep