UK Election 2010

[You kip if you want to...]

Here's a new poll from YouGov on behalf of The Telegraph:

Conservative - 39% (-2%)
Labour - 26% (-1%)
Liberal Democrats - 20% (+3%)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/6231632/Dire-poll-ratings-for-Gordon-Brown-ahead-of-Labour-conference.html

Here's what swing calculators give us with this result:

UK Polling Report - 344, 223, 53, 12 (CON majority of 38)
Electoral Calculus - 348, 215, 56, 13 (CON majority of 46)

Conference bounce for the Lib Dems.

[You kip if you want to...]

ICM on behalf of the News Of The World:

Conservative - 40% (-3%)
Labour - 26% (nc)
Liberal Democrats - 23% (+4%)

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/523775/GORD-CAM-STILL-WIN-Results-from-exclusive-ICM-poll-for-the-News-of-the-World.html

Swing calculators:

UK Polling Report - 350, 208, 63, 11 (CON majority of 50)
Electoral Calculus - 348, 208, 64, 12 (CON majority of 46)

The Lib Dem conference bounce appears to be coming more from the Conservatives.

The English Democrats will field atleast 120 seats. The amount they'll win? Zero.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8274384.stm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Lib Dem conference bounce appears to be coming more from the Conservatives.

That's usually the way. It'll slop back in a few weeks time.

[Hash]

The English Democrats will field atleast 120 seats. The amount they'll win? Zero.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8274384.stm

They actually won a directly-elected mayor in June.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The English Democrats will field atleast 120 seats. The amount they'll win? Zero.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8274384.stm

They actually won a directly-elected mayor in June.

Freak result caused by bizarre circumstances and the stupid electoral system. And since his election he's gone on to make a bloody fool of himself - repeatedly.

[You kip if you want to...]

The English Democrats will field atleast 120 seats. The amount they'll win? Zero.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8274384.stm

They actually won a directly-elected mayor in June.

Freak result caused by bizarre circumstances and the stupid electoral system. And since his election he's gone on to make a bloody fool of himself - repeatedly.

FPTP virtually locks them out anyway. They'll probably come in 6th nationwide behind the Greens, UKIP and the BNP.

[Hash]

The English Democrats will field atleast 120 seats. The amount they'll win? Zero.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8274384.stm

They actually won a directly-elected mayor in June.

Freak result caused by bizarre circumstances and the stupid electoral system. And since his election he's gone on to make a bloody fool of himself - repeatedly.

FPTP virtually locks them out anyway. They'll probably come in 6th nationwide behind the Greens, UKIP and the BNP.

Well, yeah. Even the Greens, UKIP and BNP have limited chance at a seat though the Greenies chances are slightly higher than the UKIP and BNP's chances.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, yeah. Even the Greens, UKIP and BNP have limited chance at a seat though the Greenies chances are slightly higher than the UKIP and BNP's chances.

More than slightly - they've a fair chance in Brighton Pavillion. Which is more than can be said for the other two. I suppose there's always a chance of a bizarre UKIP shock-gain in Buckingham, but more likely is that the Little Englander with a French name gets crushed.

[Harry Hayfield]

Doncaster Mayoral Election 2009 (First Preference) and change on 2005
Peter Davies (English Democrats) 16,961 (23%) +23%
Stuart Exelby (Community Group) 2,152 (3%) -4%
Michael Felse (Independent) 2,051 (3%) -2%
Stuart Holland (Labour) 16,549 (22%) -4%
Dave Owen (British National Party) 8,175 (11%) +7%
Michael Maye (Independent) 17,150 (23%) +5%
Jonathan Wood (Conservative) 12,198 (16%) +8%

Swing: 4.5% from Lab to Ind

[You kip if you want to...]

BPIX for The Mail on Sunday:
Conservative - 40%
Labour - 25%
Liberal Democrats - 22%

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216415/MoS-poll-reveals-Gordon-Brown-worse-Neil-Kinnock.html

57% agree with Cable's mansion tax.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though we're close enough to 't election for me to be more, er, liberal about poll posting, I think I might make an exception for organisations of doubtful repute...

[afleitch]

Though we're close enough to 't election for me to be more, er, liberal about poll posting, I think I might make an exception for organisations of doubtful repute...

In short; all pollsters and polls

[Harry Hayfield]

Poll Ratings 9 months out from an election
September 2004: Con 32 Lab 36 Lib Dem 22
October 2000: Con 35 Lab 40 Lib Dem 19
September 1996: Con 32 Lab 47 Lib Dem 16
August 1991: Con 36 Lab 45 Lib Dem 16
October 1986: Con 36 Lab 39 All 24
October 1982: Con 40 Lab 29 All 27
September 1978: Con 49 Lab 42 Lib 6

I think you have to agree that whilst not the exact figures, the trends are clearly in place nine months from an election

[Silent Hunter]

BBC are reporting that Brown has agreed to debates.

[Harry Hayfield]

BBC are reporting that Brown has agreed to debates.

Debates (plural) could be seen as a way of keeping Cameron out of the campaign. If it is plural and the scheme falls through, then Labour can accuse Cameron of running scared

[You kip if you want to...]

BBC are reporting that Brown has agreed to debates.

Thank god! My support would have gone straight to the greens if he said no as it would have confirmed my suspicions that Brown doesn't even want to win the election.

[Silent Hunter]

He didn't specify mention it in the speech today though.

Personally, I'm not too keen on a debate. It makes UK elections too Presidential and for a start "Dave" has a natural advantage.

[You kip if you want to...]

He didn't specify mention it in the speech today though.

Personally, I'm not too keen on a debate. It makes UK elections too Presidential and for a start "Dave" has a natural advantage.

I'm not very keen either considering Brown and Cameron already debate alot in the commons... this kinda just makes it more "showbiz". Not to mention it being on Sky, it should be on BBC and/or ITV to be fair. But, whether or not I want a debate, Sky have said it's gonna happen and it'd be worse for Brown if he said no.

[Silent Hunter]

He didn't specify mention it in the speech today though.

Personally, I'm not too keen on a debate. It makes UK elections too Presidential and for a start "Dave" has a natural advantage.

I'm not very keen either considering Brown and Cameron already debate alot in the commons... this kinda just makes it more "showbiz". Not to mention it being on Sky, it should be on BBC and/or ITV to be fair. But, whether or not I want a debate, Sky have said it's gonna happen and it'd be worse for Brown if he said no.

They've threatened to empty chair him, so he's got no choice.

[You kip if you want to...]

Some polls from yougov today.



This was a survey of 673 people who watched Brown’s speech.

[Silent Hunter]

Some polls from yougov today.



This was a survey of 673 people who watched Brown’s speech.

Which means they're more political junkies rather than Labour supporters...

Plus this was really aimed at the party rather than the general public, most of whom were at work during this.

[k-onmmunist]

Some predictions about the coming election from me.

I think Labour will probably have more support by the time the election is held (probably May 2010) and I think there is a serious chance of the Conservatives winning, but with a hung parliament. I think it's safe to say Labour are doomed and won't be holding on to their majority, but there's a chance they could hold in with a minority. Even so, I doubt they'd last long after that and they may not even be able to form a government.

If you look at the polls, the Conservatives have been predicted to win in every single one of them since January 2008 as well as for many before that (With the exception of a surge in Labour support in the first 6 months of 2007), and I seriously doubt Labour have any chance of holding on to this one.

I also think this will be a good election for minor parties, especially the Lib Dems. I think there is a good chance of them roping at least 80 seats, which would give them credibility as a force in British politics for the first time since the rapid death of the party in the 20s. I also think UKIP will win seats, probably at least 3 and at the most 10, and I think there's a good chance of the BNP squeezing out a seat too.

[k-onmmunist]

On another note, does anyone know what date the debates are being held, or hasn't it been announced yet?

[You kip if you want to...]

Some predictions about the coming election from me.

I think Labour will probably have more support by the time the election is held (probably May 2010) and I think there is a serious chance of the Conservatives winning, but with a hung parliament. I think it's safe to say Labour are doomed and won't be holding on to their majority, but there's a chance they could hold in with a minority. Even so, I doubt they'd last long after that and they may not even be able to form a government.

If you look at the polls, the Conservatives have been predicted to win in every single one of them since January 2008 as well as for many before that (With the exception of a surge in Labour support in the first 6 months of 2007), and I seriously doubt Labour have any chance of holding on to this one.

I also think this will be a good election for minor parties, especially the Lib Dems. I think there is a good chance of them roping at least 80 seats, which would give them credibility as a force in British politics for the first time since the rapid death of the party in the 20s. I also think UKIP will win seats, probably at least 3 and at the most 10, and I think there's a good chance of the BNP squeezing out a seat too.

Personally, I think that's doubtful. If any of the minor parties win anything, it'll be the Greens in Brighton Pavillion. And as for the Lib Dems, I think they'll either stay more or less where they are now, or lose a big chunk of their seats. A minority government would be VERY interesting, I think there'd be alot of "You couldn't even win properly against GORDON BROWN!? LOL!" from the Labour base.

I wonder who the Lib Dems would coalition with.

[k-onmmunist]

I think there's a serious chance of the Liberal Democrats becoming the new kingmaker in British politics. If it splits three ways, it'll be very hard for any party to get an overall majority. Which means it could be like the situation in the early 20th century, though eventually one of them will have to decline. Could this be the end of Labour as one of the big two parties?