UK Election 2010

[Јas]

Likely Outcome: Lab + Lib Dem Coalition

Oh God, not that. The Lib Dems would likely push for PR

Do the LibDems have a stated preference for which particular form of PR they'd like to see implemented?

According to Wikipedia they want single transferable vote
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats#Proportional_representation

Good on them

The LibDems support STV because they think that it will benefit them electorally more than any other system and not for principled reasons (o/c similar calculations lie behind the positions that other parties take on electoral systems; Labour stopped supported PR (this was back in the '20's) as soon as the party realised that it had enough support to win a majority under fptp... while the old Liberal Party only discovered electoral reform (in a serious way anyway) after its support started to freefall).

Unfortunately, this much can almost be taken for granted. Hence the difficulties of reforming bedded down electoral systems generally.

[Democratic Hawk]

AV is fair. At least, every vote, ultimately, counts [well until such time as it exhausts itself], unlike with FPTP - simple plurality but I'd settle for STV over any putrid party list system

What else do I like?

- Compulsory voting, which includes a NOTA option
- Registration by political party, which facilitates an amount per head in state funding (though levelled up or down to level the playing field once a general election is called)
- Primaries in which candidates are selected (parliamentary elections only)

Dave

[afleitch]

AV is fair. At least, every vote, ultimately, counts

I can see your point. STV does the same thing with your vote (or in this case 'votes'), but it does it more proportionately and, dare I say more 'fairly' than AV which entrenches disparities in the outcome of the election in terms of seats.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What to make of the troop withdrawral announcement in this environment? Do this suggest Brown's going for it... or waiting? I can see both sides.

- Announces the drawdown - waits a few days then pull the election out of his perverbial - but that of course risks looking terribly opportunistic.

- Has the troop withdrawral up his sleeve as a measure to promote his difference on foreign policy to Blair.

[afleitch]

What to make of the troop withdrawral announcement in this environment? Do this suggest Brown's going for it... or waiting? I can see both sides.

- Announces the drawdown - waits a few days then pull the election out of his perverbial - but that of course risks looking terribly opportunistic.

- Has the troop withdrawral up his sleeve as a measure to promote his difference on foreign policy to Blair.

I don't think it will help him. Last Tuesdays announcement bombed. There wil be no election this year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An election this year has been ruled out; and one next year sort-of has.

As to the political effects of the troop reductions; no idea. And I'm not sure that (right now) the polls can be trusted enough to give us the answer.

[Democratic Hawk]

AV is fair. At least, every vote, ultimately, counts

I can see your point. STV does the same thing with your vote (or in this case 'votes'), but it does it more proportionately and, dare I say more 'fairly' than AV which entrenches disparities in the outcome of the election in terms of seats.

I'm just a fan of stable majority government as you probably can tell . I think STV would result in coalitions with the two main parties being held to ransom

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

For the Tory grassroots it was a great week. For me watching Labour direhards, even socialists in the blogsphere attempting to justify not taxing non-domiciles and not removing stamp duty for first time buyers and above all not critically questioning Brown's direction was rather sad to watch. Our lot may be volatile, but they are not inert.

I've raised concerns about the IHT tax proposals, not from the perspective of being a Labour die-hard or a socialist (but then I'm more a socio-capitalist, if anything), on two legitimate grounds:

1) Firstly, the way the right-wing cheerleaders have spun it in the press you'd think everybody would get some whopping fat cash-in-hand tax cut (when in reality few estates are actually affected by IHT as it stands) and;

2) Secondly, misgivings as to whether non-domiciles a) should or even can be taxed and b) if so, what if the monies raised through such a tax fell short of the cost of extending the IHT threshold to £1m on whom would that burden fall?

I'm pretty ambivalvent about tax cuts and tax rises to tell you the truth (and certainly those born out of some ideological fervour, one way or the other). I'm sure cuts are nice enough to have but, at the end of the day, the overall stability of the economy matters to me above all else because if the economy runs into severe difficulties then we are all, potential, losers .

In my trawls today, I've game across a poll which asks: Would a recession be good for the economy?

http://money.uk.msn.com/Investing/Insight/Special_Features/Moneyweek/article.aspx?cp-documentid=6330253

58% Yes - it would clear out bad practice

42% No - recessions help no one but bailiffs

My advice to that 58% is be careful what you wish for. The scars remain in British society from the 1981 and 1991 recessions without us having to cope with the consequences of another one

Dave

[Jens]

I personnaly think that the German system would work well in a UK context.

It's been a failure in Wales; regrettably (yes, the Welsh version is less proportional than the German system, but that's not what caused the problems. It's somehow managed to combine the very worst aspects (at least as far as I'm concerned) of fptp and list systems and produced some attitudes towards politics and democracy amongst politicians that are extremely unhealthy. No one understands how it works either; and no one has ever bothered to really explain it properly...)

Well, an explanation is always good I saw it as a transitional system until your could get proper PR. STV I really don't like because you can vote against a party, like SF in Ireland.

[Јas]

I personnaly think that the German system would work well in a UK context.

It's been a failure in Wales; regrettably (yes, the Welsh version is less proportional than the German system, but that's not what caused the problems. It's somehow managed to combine the very worst aspects (at least as far as I'm concerned) of fptp and list systems and produced some attitudes towards politics and democracy amongst politicians that are extremely unhealthy. No one understands how it works either; and no one has ever bothered to really explain it properly...)

Well, an explanation is always good I saw it as a transitional system until your could get proper PR. STV I really don't like because you can vote against a party, like SF in Ireland.

But that's the most fun part of it!

[Peter]

In my trawls today, I've game across a poll which asks: Would a recession be good for the economy?

http://money.uk.msn.com/Investing/Insight/Special_Features/Moneyweek/article.aspx?cp-documentid=6330253

58% Yes - it would clear out bad practice

42% No - recessions help no one but bailiffs

My advice to that 58% is be careful what you wish for. The scars remain in British society from the 1981 and 1991 recessions without us having to cope with the consequences of another one

It has to be said that whilst there are undoubtable negatives to a recession, the housing market in the South is in dire need of a correction.

[Democratic Hawk]

It has to be said that whilst there are undoubtable negatives to a recession, the housing market in the South is in dire need of a correction.

I find it difficult to disagree with that but who wants to fall into "negative equity"? There will be those who it will effect, profoundly. Partly why parts of the UK swung to Labour that had never been Labour before in 1997. This very British 'obssession' with owning your own home doesn't help

My folks paid £10,340 for theirs, RTB valued at £24,000 or so in 1990, and it's now worth c.£120,000, so I don't think my mother would mind too much if its value fell. This is in Durham (well, a village three miles out), however. Those RTB's in the city centre are right little goldmines; many rented to students nowadays

Dave

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Got a question.

Um... there's a chance I might be involved in one of the parties from mid-year, living there etc etc. Are there any ideas as to when people think Brown will call the election?

[Јas]

Got a question.

Um... there's a chance I might be involved in one of the parties from mid-year, living there etc etc. Are there any ideas as to when people think Brown will call the election?

IIRC, Brown definitively ruled out 2007 and 2008 last month.
He's obliged (*I think*) to call an election by June 2010.

So sometime in 2009 or early 2010.

In recent times, British General Elections tend to be held in the April-June period.
Might also be worth noting that in June 2009, European Parliamentary Elections are scheduled across Europe anyway (though I've no idea whether that would have a bearing on the decision).
I presume Local Elections of some kind will be held during the period as well, though I've no idea when.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Local elections of various kinds are held each May. Next year all local authorities in Wales and a third of seats in Metropolitan Boroughs will be up for election, as will some districts and UA's. There will also be elections in London for the Mayor and GLA.

[Harry Hayfield]

My personal opinion is that the next general election will be held in June 2009 (to coincide with the County and Euro Elections)

[Јas]

Brown ponders voting referendum on poll day - The Independent

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I presume the odds are on option 4 winning out (), and I'd be surprised if any such referendum would had a snowball's chance of actually being approved but it's nice to see that the subject of electoral reform isn't entirely beyond the Pale.

[Harry Hayfield]

At a meeting last night with our local MP, he announced that he expects there to be a general election on May 6th 2010 with the formal dissoultion likely in either the middle of March or in early April. As a result of this, our local party was put on a formal election footing.

[doktorb]

If there is anything to be taken from that, it is that Brown is not thinking of changing the voting system for his own benefit prior to the election.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

How long ago is it since that electoral reform report which recommended cutting down the number of MPs to 540 and introduce a Scottish Style of PR? It was Blair's first term wasn't it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How long ago is it since that electoral reform report which recommended cutting down the number of MPs to 540 and introduce a Scottish Style of PR? It was Blair's first term wasn't it?

Jenkins Report, yeah. As in Woy Jenkins, Baron Claret of Hillhead.

[AMOLAK MANN]

Could be April 8th or even March...

[Silent Hunter]

Why would you want AV? It's an even less proportional system than FPTP.

[Silent Hunter]

Have any of the books (i.e. Politico's Guide) come out yet?

[Harry Hayfield]

Published on Tuesday
http://www.politicos.co.uk/books/426473/Greg-Callus%3BIain-Dale%3BAndrew-Hawkins/Guide-to-the-2010-General-Election