Why is the Biden campaign investing in Florida?

[Radicalneo]

Pete Buttigieg said he think Biden can win Florida.Im suprised Florida and North Carolina seem to be in the same category.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maybe at the very least to help the abortion amendment reach the 60% threshold? I really don't know, it seems like the biggest mistake by the campaign thus far.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Latinx state that's why

[Ferguson97]

It’s nonsensical for a campaign to completely write off a state that they only lost by 3.4%, even if trends or polling indicate that it’s not going to go their way. I expect the Biden to also put some money in the New York media market, even though he’s zero risk of losing New York or New Jersey. That’s just how campaigns work. “Spending all your money in six states and spend $0 everywhere else” is a child’s idea of how campaigns should function.

There’s also the fact that downballot races exist.

And there’s something to be said about self-fulfilling prophecies. If Democrats write off Florida as unwinnable, then it will become unwinnable far sooner.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I looked at replays of 2016 Eday on You tube and they said even back then FL is turning red it's no longer a swing state it's IL but the red version of it the only state Biden can flip is NC, just GA has 16 votes that can make up for a loss of blue state


As many have said on Atlas already Allred has a better chance in TX, but it will come as split vote, Biden isn't winning TX at Prez level

But both TX and FL are Latinx states that's why Ds feel they can contest them

[Wells]

The Senate race. Related: I still think Democrats could do well in Florida under the right circumstances.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The Senate race. Related: I still think Democrats could do well in Florida under the right circumstances.

In the last 10 years, Democrats have found ways to lose Florida in even the most favorable conditions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hear that chime Trump has won the state of FL one of 4 core states that Trump needs to win OH, FL, TX and NC. Just like MI, PA, WI, VA are Biden 4 core states gets him to 270 go to You tube replays and see how safe FL is Rs outnumber us by 300 K votes in TX, OH, FL while we outnumber Rs by 30o K in MI, PA, WI and VA


The only 4 core that is in play is NC, Trump isn't up 6 more like 3 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My Pred is in TX if Trump wins it by 6 Allred can narrowly win not FL

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

My Pred is in TX if Trump wins it by 6 Allred can narrowly win not FL

There’s no way Allred can outperform Biden by 6. Mark Kelly only outperformed Biden by 2. TX is a much bigger, more polarized state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The poll has Biden down by 12 and Cruz up by 5 Allred is out poll Biden by 7 it's pure wave insurance

[ProgressiveModerate]

Several reasons:

1. They have internal data that suggests that investment is worth it - maybe Florida isn’t as far gone as many on here seem to think. In 2016 even though FL was only 0.4% to the right of WI, the Biden team seemed to deprioritize it as part of their path - they likely knew better than we did that Dems were struggling in the state. I’d also remind folks in 2020 Trump “only” won Florida by 3%. That’s historically a decent R win by Florida standards but isn’t some kind of mega landslide victory. And sure one can point to FL in 2022 as proof the state is going hard right, but Dems landsliding in PA and MI doesn’t seem like proof those states are in the bag for Biden.

2. Recency bias. Obama won FL twice when Biden was VP - just because Dems have seen a path to winning statewide in FL presidentially in relatively recent history, they see it more optimistically than a place like TX where a Dem statewide win hasn’t happened for a long time.

3. Biden team just has a lot of money. Campaigns are never spend money on the 5 main swing states and nowhere else - it’s good to diversify to make multiple possible paths to victory and also help downballot candidates. FL-Sen could very realistically be the Senate tipping point and Biden knows keeping the state close keeps DMP in the game.

4. This ties into the last point a bit but spending money in Florida forces the Trump team to spend money there - especially with Trumps ego he probably wants to prioritize a large win in Florida and any money Biden spends in FL is a threat to that.

Could easily be some combination of these factors

[President Johnson]

#3 and #4 mainly, though there might be a portion of delusion among certain staffers as well. The good thing is that they have enough money.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Several reasons:

1. They have internal data that suggests that investment is worth it - maybe Florida isn’t as far gone as many on here seem to think. In 2016 even though FL was only 0.4% to the right of WI, the Biden team seemed to deprioritize it as part of their path - they likely knew better than we did that Dems were struggling in the state. I’d also remind folks in 2020 Trump “only” won Florida by 3%. That’s historically a decent R win by Florida standards but isn’t some kind of mega landslide victory. And sure one can point to FL in 2022 as proof the state is going hard right, but Dems landsliding in PA and MI doesn’t seem like proof those states are in the bag for Biden.

2. Recency bias. Obama won FL twice when Biden was VP - just because Dems have seen a path to winning statewide in FL presidentially in relatively recent history, they see it more optimistically than a place like TX where a Dem statewide win hasn’t happened for a long time.

3. Biden team just has a lot of money. Campaigns are never spend money on the 5 main swing states and nowhere else - it’s good to diversify to make multiple possible paths to victory and also help downballot candidates. FL-Sen could very realistically be the Senate tipping point and Biden knows keeping the state close keeps DMP in the game.

4. This ties into the last point a bit but spending money in Florida forces the Trump team to spend money there - especially with Trumps ego he probably wants to prioritize a large win in Florida and any money Biden spends in FL is a threat to that.

Could easily be some combination of these factors

It won't happen sorry

[robocop]

Several reasons:

1. They have internal data that suggests that investment is worth it - maybe Florida isn’t as far gone as many on here seem to think. In 2016 even though FL was only 0.4% to the right of WI, the Biden team seemed to deprioritize it as part of their path - they likely knew better than we did that Dems were struggling in the state. I’d also remind folks in 2020 Trump “only” won Florida by 3%. That’s historically a decent R win by Florida standards but isn’t some kind of mega landslide victory. And sure one can point to FL in 2022 as proof the state is going hard right, but Dems landsliding in PA and MI doesn’t seem like proof those states are in the bag for Biden.

2. Recency bias. Obama won FL twice when Biden was VP - just because Dems have seen a path to winning statewide in FL presidentially in relatively recent history, they see it more optimistically than a place like TX where a Dem statewide win hasn’t happened for a long time.

3. Biden team just has a lot of money. Campaigns are never spend money on the 5 main swing states and nowhere else - it’s good to diversify to make multiple possible paths to victory and also help downballot candidates. FL-Sen could very realistically be the Senate tipping point and Biden knows keeping the state close keeps DMP in the game.

4. This ties into the last point a bit but spending money in Florida forces the Trump team to spend money there - especially with Trumps ego he probably wants to prioritize a large win in Florida and any money Biden spends in FL is a threat to that.

Could easily be some combination of these factors

Also what if the 2022 FL results were a bit of a flash in the pan? Poor turnout? "Popular" R candidates (Gov and Sen)? Media exaggeration turning into self-fulfilling prophecy?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Several reasons:

1. They have internal data that suggests that investment is worth it - maybe Florida isn’t as far gone as many on here seem to think. In 2016 even though FL was only 0.4% to the right of WI, the Biden team seemed to deprioritize it as part of their path - they likely knew better than we did that Dems were struggling in the state. I’d also remind folks in 2020 Trump “only” won Florida by 3%. That’s historically a decent R win by Florida standards but isn’t some kind of mega landslide victory. And sure one can point to FL in 2022 as proof the state is going hard right, but Dems landsliding in PA and MI doesn’t seem like proof those states are in the bag for Biden.

2. Recency bias. Obama won FL twice when Biden was VP - just because Dems have seen a path to winning statewide in FL presidentially in relatively recent history, they see it more optimistically than a place like TX where a Dem statewide win hasn’t happened for a long time.

3. Biden team just has a lot of money. Campaigns are never spend money on the 5 main swing states and nowhere else - it’s good to diversify to make multiple possible paths to victory and also help downballot candidates. FL-Sen could very realistically be the Senate tipping point and Biden knows keeping the state close keeps DMP in the game.

4. This ties into the last point a bit but spending money in Florida forces the Trump team to spend money there - especially with Trumps ego he probably wants to prioritize a large win in Florida and any money Biden spends in FL is a threat to that.

Could easily be some combination of these factors

Also what if the 2022 FL results were a bit of a flash in the pan? Poor turnout? "Popular" R candidates (Gov and Sen)? Media exaggeration turning into self-fulfilling prophecy?

Mainly Dems were outspent lot a factor of 20 or something crazy, combined with FL Dems being incompetent

[quesaisje]

It’s nonsensical for a campaign to completely write off a state that they only lost by 3.4%, even if trends or polling indicate that it’s not going to go their way. I expect the Biden to also put some money in the New York media market, even though he’s zero risk of losing New York or New Jersey. That’s just how campaigns work. “Spending all your money in six states and spend $0 everywhere else” is a child’s idea of how campaigns should function.

There’s also the fact that downballot races exist.

And there’s something to be said about self-fulfilling prophecies. If Democrats write off Florida as unwinnable, then it will become unwinnable far sooner.

This is the best answer. It's a shame that it isn't an option in the poll.

All that I would add is that it's smart for parties to treat presidential campaigns as long-term investments. No other opportunity allows the parties to reach so many people. It shouldn't be all about the nominee or even that cycle. Even if you don't win in 2024, you put yourself in a better position for 2026 and 2028.

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

I think it's a smart move to put financial resources into Florida by the Democrats. Even if the state doesn't go blue, I certainly wouldn't want to give away one-ninth of the electoral votes needed to win (if I'm in the Biden camp, I figure I'm going to at worst case make Trump work for Florida's 30 electoral votes).

[dspNY]

Biden is actually campaigning in Florida today. Note that Trump hasn't scheduled any rallies in Florida so Biden's internal pollsters believe it is within 5 points but Trump's polling probably shows Trump with a solid lead (at least 5 points).

[2016]

Biden is actually campaigning in Florida today. Note that Trump hasn't scheduled any rallies in Florida so Biden's internal pollsters believe it is within 5 points but Trump's polling probably shows Trump with a solid lead (at least 5 points).

The Biden Campaign will probably never admit this but Pres Biden is the most disliked Politician in the History in the State of Florida. Everyone can't stand him unless you a Nikki Fried, Maxwell Frost or the Castor Family (I think Biden Campaign in Rep. Kathy Castors District today).

His Job Approval in FL is in the Mid 30ties and that's saying something.

[wbrocks67]

"investing" is doing a lot here; that insinuates the campaign is giving it the same attention it is to the main swing states. It's clearly not, but it's also dumb to write FL off esp given the abortion amendment and senate race. If they have some extra money, no reason not to at least have a presence.

We saw what having zero presence did to Dems in 2022.

[2016]

"investing" is doing a lot here; that insinuates the campaign is giving it the same attention it is to the main swing states. It's clearly not, but it's also dumb to write FL off esp given the abortion amendment and senate race. If they have some extra money, no reason not to at least have a presence.

We saw what having zero presence did to Dems in 2022.

We often say how much Trump energizes people & Democrats in particular to vote against him.

I will say this though: No one is energizing Republicans more in Florida then President Joe Biden. Every time he stepped a foot into Florida Registrations for Republicans spiked afterwards.

When he campaigned for Crist & Demings the week before the Election in 2022 Republicans had their best single Day in a Midterm Election in Early Voting ever.

Biden & Harris are just massivly disliked in that State.

[Dereich]

Biden is actually campaigning in Florida today. Note that Trump hasn't scheduled any rallies in Florida so Biden's internal pollsters believe it is within 5 points but Trump's polling probably shows Trump with a solid lead (at least 5 points).

The Biden Campaign will probably never admit this but Pres Biden is the most disliked Politician in the History in the State of Florida. Everyone can't stand him unless you a Nikki Fried, Maxwell Frost or the Castor Family (I think Biden Campaign in Rep. Kathy Castors District today).

His Job Approval in FL is in the Mid 30ties and that's saying something.

That is an objectively ridiculous statement. An extremely quick search finds polls where both Bush and Obama also spent time in the 30s in Florida and that's without going into the Solid South era, an era which makes your statement even more ridiculous. Where in Florida are you presuming to speak from? That you would consider Floridians to be a single group that speaks with one voice instead of many very different tribes of people that barely have anything in common is extremely weird. New York migrants, Cubans, and Florida crackers have nothing in common beyond who they vote for. The true genius of the Florida GOP, which you like to talk up so much, is finding out the way to keep its very broad and diverse coalition together despite the differences.

[holtridge]

Well if they don't invest in Florida then they certainly wouldn't have much of a chance to win it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Should invest in TX not FL