🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)

[Mike88]

New government, new thread.

Older threads:

Portugal's politics and elections
Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

With the 10 March 2024 election now set and done, the "Costism era" comes to a close. There is a new government, very minority and very unstable, plus, more elections in the horizon, regional, local, presidential, and... another snap general election in the short term? We'll see. So, time for a new thread.

Political summary:

President of the Republic: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD) 2016-Incumbent
Prime Minister: Luís Montenegro (PSD) 2024-Incumbent
Leader of the Opposition (unofficial): Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) 2024-Incumbent
Speaker of Parliament: José Pedro Aguiar-Branco (PSD) 2024-Incumbent

General Election results since 1975:

Image link
- AD coalition between PSD, CDS and PPM in 1979, 1980 and 2024;
- FRS coalition between PS and other leftwing parties in 1980;
- PCP ran alone in 1975 and 1976; Between 1979 and 1985 ran in APU coalition, and since 1987 in CDU coalition;
- PàF coalition between PSD and CDS in 2015;

Schedule political events during 2024:

- 26 May 2024: Madeira snap regional elections;
- 9 June 2024: European Parliament elections;

Welcome to the new thread Portugal's politics and elections 4.0.

[Mike88]

This Tuesday, 2 April 2024, at 6pm local time, Luís Montenegro's cabinet will be sworn in, at Ajuda National Palace, by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

Outgoing PM Costa, in power for nearly 9 years (2015-2024), gave his "final goodbye" on social media, with a picture of him waving goodbye, with the title saying "Thank you":

https://twitter.com/antoniocostapm/status/1774872644300439879

[Mike88]

Montenegro's cabinet swearing in ceremony: Montenegro puts "pressure" on the PS to let him govern, while Marcelo warns that "time is short".

The 24th Constitutional Government is already in office. The swearing in ceremony was held this afternoon at Ajuda National Palace in Lisbon. In his speech, President Marcelo thanked the Portuguese people for the high turnout rate on March 10th, saying that it showed that people have "faith in democracy". He also pointed that, even though it was a narrow victory, voters sided with the "moderate side" and not the radicals, but warned Montenegro that time, in theory, may be long but in practice is short, taking into account all the challenges ahead. He went on saying he will support and cooperate with the government but gave it 4 warnings: The international scene, the economic and social situation, the complicated Parliamentary scenario and the limited time to put forward policies.

After the President, it was PM Montenegro's turn to give a speech. Montenegro said that the internal and external situation is very complex and that both the government and the opposition have responsabilities, pointing that it would be unforgivable for politics becoming "the aggravating factor and not the solution". Here he talked directly to the PS, saying the Socialists must decide if they will be a "democratic opposition" or a "democratic blockade", pressing that he's not a PM "on shift" and wants to last 4 and a half years, suggesting that those who let the government's program pass, should let it complete its full term. Regarding the budget surplus, Montenegro warned that the idea of "full coffers" is wrong and dangerous, but that his strategy is to cut taxes in order to shore up the economy. Montenegro also promised a "broad understanding" regarding corruption and will ask all parties in Parliment to put forward their policies and then the best ones should be picked. He concluded his speech by quoting Pope Francis, saying that "All, all, all" count, and Portuguese poet Luís Vaz de Camões, saying "May the Government have a long time because we are lost and laboured".

This is the fifth time in Portuguese democracy that President and Prime Minister are from the same party: Soares-Guterres (1995-96); Sampaio-Guterres (1996-2002); Sampaio-Sócrates (2005-06); Cavaco-Passos (2011-15); Marcelo-Montenegro (2024-present).

[Mike88]

One of the first decisions of the new government was to change the "controversial" Government logo introduced by Costa around 2 years ago:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1775252048256143696

The new Government has already recovered the old logo, with the website now available and discarding the modern logo adopted - with some controversy - by the previous executive.

[Antonio the Sixth]

honestly yeah, the new logo sucked. Looks like an Italian flag with wonky proportions and a weird yellow spot. I have no idea what Costa was thinking here.

[Mike88]

honestly yeah, the new logo sucked. Looks like an Italian flag with wonky proportions and a weird yellow spot. I have no idea what Costa was thinking here.

Yeah, the goal of Costa's government was to create a logo "inclusive, plural and secular, with reinforced ecological awareness". Of course, the reaction was "Really? This? lol". Montenegro then accused Costa's government of "succumbing Portugal's historic and identity references" and promised to bring back the old logo if he became Prime Minister.

[crals]

The "new" logo was terrible, but the fact this is the first thing the government did and the reasoning for it are unfortunate. Probably an attempt to win over some of those low info Chega voters.

[Mike88]

Pedro Nuno Santos "responds" to PM Montenegro: "We are not obligated to support the government" and accuses Montenegro of beginning to play "the victim card".

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1775638102368817617

Pedro Nuno Santos shakes off the pressure to "support" the Government and warns that Montenegro is victimizing itself by thinking about elections

24 hours after the swearing in ceremony and also after some criticism for not being present, Pedro Nuno Santos appeared to respond to PM Luis Montenegro's speech. PNS pointed that Montenegro speech was much more focused on the opposition rather than in Portugal, and that the government is already acting like a "victim". He said that the speech had no vision, no ambition for the country and pressed that the PS is not "obligated" to support this government, even if that's the wish of many people in the PSD. Pointing that he saw the speech as "blackmail", PNS said that there are much more similarities, in terms of policies between PSD an CHEGA, rather than with the PS. Regarding the budget, Nuno Santos, once again, said it will be very dificult for the party to let it pass, saying that his job is to defend the Socialists' manifesto and that the role of the PS will never be of the "crutch" of the PSD.

[Mike88]

The "new" logo was terrible, but the fact this is the first thing the government did and the reasoning for it are unfortunate. Probably an attempt to win over some of those low info Chega voters.

Well, in politics, and in much in life, image is everything and in this case it shows that there is a "new management" in the store, but also shows that they have very little power beyond changing the logo of the government.

[Mike88]

The Brazilian twins case is back: Health Inspection report concludes that there were illegal conducts and has sent the report to the Public Prosecutor.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1775842143736852866

IGAS concludes that scheduling the twins' first appointment was illegal

The Brazilian twins case, that "haunted" President Marcelo and broke basically at the same time as Costa's resignation back in November 2023, had a new development today. The General Health Inspection finalized their report regarding the case and concluded that several illegal conducts were made. The report says that the appointment consultation for the twins was illegally made and violated the rules of the NHS, but the report clears Saint Mary Hospital, Lisbon, of any wrongdoing saying it just followed rules and orders. The report "blames" the then Health Secretary for the illegal appointement, after a meeting with the son of President Marcelo, Nuno Rebelo de Sousa. The report has now been sent to the Public Prosecutor in order to determine whether a crime has been committed.

[oldtimer]

When is the earliest possible moment that the Montenegro Government collapses?

[Mike88]

When is the earliest possible moment that the Montenegro Government collapses?

The earliest, earliest possible moment would be next week in the Government Program debate, as PCP will present a motion of rejection, but the PS has already said they will not support it, so the government will pass.

After this, there could be controversies, that could force motions in Parliament or "damaging" resignations, and then there's the budget vote in late October, where there is a high probability of the government losing. If they indeed lose, the government can opt to present a new budget, govern with the previous budget or ask Marcelo to dissolve Parliament and call new elections.

[oldtimer]

When is the earliest possible moment that the Montenegro Government collapses?

The earliest, earliest possible moment would be next week in the Government Program debate, as PCP will present a motion of rejection, but the PS has already said they will not support it, so the government will pass.

After this, there could be controversies, that could force motions in Parliament or "damaging" resignations, and then there's the budget vote in late October, where there is a high probability of the government losing. If they indeed lose, the government can opt to present a new budget, govern with the previous budget or ask Marcelo to dissolve Parliament and call new elections.

Assumming the Government Program passes, what's the mechanism to force new elections against Marcelo's and Montenegro's will ?

[Mike88]

When is the earliest possible moment that the Montenegro Government collapses?

The earliest, earliest possible moment would be next week in the Government Program debate, as PCP will present a motion of rejection, but the PS has already said they will not support it, so the government will pass.

After this, there could be controversies, that could force motions in Parliament or "damaging" resignations, and then there's the budget vote in late October, where there is a high probability of the government losing. If they indeed lose, the government can opt to present a new budget, govern with the previous budget or ask Marcelo to dissolve Parliament and call new elections.

Assumming the Government Program passes, what's the mechanism to force new elections against Marcelo's and Montenegro's will ?

There isn't one, only the President can decide to call or not elections. However, the political situation could force Marcelo to call an election, even if that wasn't his preferred option.

[crals]

When is the earliest possible moment that the Montenegro Government collapses?

The earliest, earliest possible moment would be next week in the Government Program debate, as PCP will present a motion of rejection, but the PS has already said they will not support it, so the government will pass.

After this, there could be controversies, that could force motions in Parliament or "damaging" resignations, and then there's the budget vote in late October, where there is a high probability of the government losing. If they indeed lose, the government can opt to present a new budget, govern with the previous budget or ask Marcelo to dissolve Parliament and call new elections.

Assumming the Government Program passes, what's the mechanism to force new elections against Marcelo's and Montenegro's will ?

Why would there be one?

[Flyersfan232]

One of the first decisions of the new government was to change the "controversial" Government logo introduced by Costa around 2 years ago:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1775252048256143696

The new Government has already recovered the old logo, with the website now available and discarding the modern logo adopted - with some controversy - by the previous executive.

like I it off topic any monarchist in the new assembly? ((not talking about the ppm I mean personal monarchist))

[Mike88]

like I it off topic any monarchist in the new assembly? ((not talking about the ppm I mean personal monarchist))

I have no idea. In theory, CHEGA could have a few on their caucus but I'm not sure.

[Mike88]

Montenegro's 41 secretaries of state are sworn in, as President Marcelo is "haunted" again by the Brazilian twins case:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1776370117330284844

Montenegro's new cycle starts with Marcelo in trouble

It was a bit of a "bumpy" road to get the final list of the 41 secretaries of state of Montenegro's government. The list was expected by mid afternoon yesterday, but only late in the evening was the list unveiled after some post were still to be filled. The swearing in ceremony was held this Friday, 5 April, in Ajuda National Palace, but the event was "marked" by the revival of the Brazilian twins case.

The General Health Inspection report, released yesterday, has put again President Marcelo in a complicated position as new details from the report emerged, as it accuses the Presidency of the Republic of "impairing" the investigation by delaying the sending of emails between the Presidency and Marcelo's son. Marcelo responded to the accusation in the report saying he delayed the info because he thought the investigation was under secracy of justice rules. CHEGA is preparing to create a Parliamentary Committee to investigate the matter and wants President Marcelo to testify in Parliament.

[Mike88]

Added the Madeira election date to the title.

A few updates on this race: Parties have until 15 April to present lists to the local Courts, and PSD and CDS have already announced they will run in separate lists.

In the PSD-Madeira, after an unexpectedly close leadership ballot, under very "controlled", and controversial, circumstances by Albuquerque, the mood in the party is complicated. Some people, in high ranking government posts, are being sacked for, allegedly, opposing Albuquerque in the ballot. Albuquerque's opponent in the ballot, Manuel António Correia, rejects any "unity lists" for the regional elections saying he cannot be part of a project that "is the opposite of what he defends for the party and the islands."

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Q1: President Marcelo's approval:

32% Approve (+4)
25% Disapprove (-20)
39% Neither approve or disapprove (+15)
  4% Undecided (+1)

Q2: Should the President intervene more in this legislature?

62% Yes
30% No
  8% Undecided

Q3: How do you evaluate the choice of José Pedro Aguiar-Branco to preside over the Assembly of the Republic in the first two years of the legislature?

39% Positive
15% Negative
37% Neither positive or negative
  9% Undecided

Q4: How do you evaluate the PS' performance in making the election of the President of the AR viable?

51% Positive
16% Negative
26% Neither positive or negative
  7% Undecided

Q5: Do you consider that this Government will last until the end of its term?

68% No
21% Yes
11% Undecided

Q6: What are your expectations about the duration of the Government?

 49% Between 1 and 2 years
 41% 1 year
   8% Between 2 and 3 years
0.4% More than 3 years but not reaching 4 years
   2% Undecided

Q7: Who will be the leader of the Opposition?

53% Pedro Nuno Santos
35% André Ventura
12% Undecided

Q8: Expectations about the new PM’s performance?

31% Positive
27% Negative
35% Neither positive or negative
  7% Undecided

Q9: In general, how do you evaluate the choices for the new government?

34% Good
20% Bad
37% Neither good or bad
  9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 29 March and 3 April 2024. Polled 805 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

[Mike88]

Exchange of letters between PM Montenegro and PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1777309604457668753

Pedro Nuno Santos sends a letter to Montenegro asking for an “agreement”

The day was marked by an exchange of letters between PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos and PM Luís Montenegro in order to reach "a deal to find solutions". It was PNS who started, sending a letter this Monday morning showing the will of the PS in working together with the government in order to reach for solutions in some areas of government. Nuno Santos highlighted career and wage progressions for public employees, NHS workers, security forces, teachers and Court staffs. He added that he's "certain" that a deal could be reached in 60 days in order to resolve these matters, before the summer recess. PM Montenegro responded 5 hours later, also by letter, saying he welcomes the availability of the PS, and labelled it as an act of "political responsibility and commitment". However, he warned the PS that negotiations with unions will still have to start pointed to PNS' government experience, that these negotiations can be complex, but assured that the government will work to surpass difficulties in "maximum speed". A meeting between the two would take place after the conclusion of negotiations with unions.

In an interview later on the evening, on CNN Portugal, Nuno Santos said that Montenegro's response was a bit "arrogant", adding that the PSD has no votes to pass a budget on its own.

[Mike88]

Passos Coelho "returns again": Former PSD PM presents controversial book against gender ideology and wokeism.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1777397029205069950

Passos Coelho: "I've been called a fascist several times"

As PNS and PM Montenegro were "exchanging" letters on who looks more open to dialogue, former PSD PM Pedro Passos Coelho returned to the spotlight to present a book, written by several authors, called "Identity and Family", which attacks against gender ideology, wokeism and the "culture of death". In the presentation, several well known people from the rightwing were present, which included CHEGA leader André Ventura. He talked with Passos Coelho in front of TV cameras and Passos, once again, pointed that he would like the PSD to reach a deal with CHEGA, saying the election results were a clear sign. Now, what was the goal of Passos Coelho with this whole action? The PSD, now in government, is distancing themselves from Passos comments, while the left is trashing and accuses Passos of adopting CHEGA's policies labeling them as "scary". Pundits also point that Passos could also be sending a "signal" to Montenegro that he isn't happy with the "No is no" strategy, and/or wanting to embarrass Montenegro with a clear statement on who still has the more power. Also, the launch for his possible 2026 Presidential campaign? Who knows, as it's his usual, Passos appears, "detonates the bomb", and then vanishes into thin air.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Q5: Do you consider that this Government will last until the end of its term?

68% No
21% Yes
11% Undecided

Q6: What are your expectations about the duration of the Government?

 49% Between 1 and 2 years
 41% 1 year
   8% Between 2 and 3 years
0.4% More than 3 years but not reaching 4 years
   2% Undecided

What do people think the full term is??

21% say it'll last the whole term, but only ~10% think it'll last more than 2 years?

[jeron]

Q5: Do you consider that this Government will last until the end of its term?

68% No
21% Yes
11% Undecided

Q6: What are your expectations about the duration of the Government?

 49% Between 1 and 2 years
 41% 1 year
   8% Between 2 and 3 years
0.4% More than 3 years but not reaching 4 years
   2% Undecided

What do people think the full term is??

21% say it'll last the whole term, but only ~10% think it'll last more than 2 years?

t
Only the ones who answered no on question 5 were asked question 6.

[Mike88]

Q5: Do you consider that this Government will last until the end of its term?

68% No
21% Yes
11% Undecided

Q6: What are your expectations about the duration of the Government?

 49% Between 1 and 2 years
 41% 1 year
   8% Between 2 and 3 years
0.4% More than 3 years but not reaching 4 years
   2% Undecided

What do people think the full term is??

21% say it'll last the whole term, but only ~10% think it'll last more than 2 years?

t
Only the ones who answered no on question 5 were asked question 6.

Yeah, forgot to add that to the question. The term of this government ends in 4 and a half years, October 2028. As the poll shows, 7 out of 10 people don't believe it will last long. But, curiously, the most voted option in the poll, 1 to 2 years, as I've posted before, has the interesting caveat that if this government is still in power on 9 September 2025, it is guaranteed to last another year, since Presidents at the end and beginning of their terms are prohibited from dissolving Parliament.