2024 South Korean legislative election (April 10th)

[Germany1994]

It seems these dummy PR parties are formed before the election and disbanded after the election with elected MPs going back to the true parent party.  At this stage, they should just get rid of this rule that caps PR seats since everyone has a de facto workaround.

Last I checked RKP is not running any FPTP candidates and will support DPK.  Is that still the case?

The 10 or less seats they get from reinstating parallel voting isn't worth the negative public reaction. It also allows the major parties to run single issue dummy parties to rally their base so the system doesn't really hurt them at all.
Yes, RKP supports DPK everywhere in FPTP seats.

Thanks. Where did you find this graphic??

Yonhap via Google

Thanks. So Gangnam and Seocheo are the most affluent districts of Seoul, right?? And the areas Yoon won with under 50 % are swing areas that voted for Moon and the Democrats in the elections before and will vote for them this election again??

Sorry for asking all these question, don´t know all that much about Politics in Asia.

[jaichind]

RKP's Cho running against "prosecutorial dictatorship" is interesting.  He clearly has a personal stake. 

Historically if there was a "deep state" in ROK it would be the ROK SPO.  They have their own agenda but often would ally with the Right to go after Center-Left politicians after they leave office.  Of course SPO will go after those people on the Center-Right if it is in their institutional interest to do so.  I would be eager to see how many PR vote  RKP can scoop up which I am sure would include some anti-system anti-establishment vote.

[Logical]

It seems these dummy PR parties are formed before the election and disbanded after the election with elected MPs going back to the true parent party.  At this stage, they should just get rid of this rule that caps PR seats since everyone has a de facto workaround.

Last I checked RKP is not running any FPTP candidates and will support DPK.  Is that still the case?

The 10 or less seats they get from reinstating parallel voting isn't worth the negative public reaction. It also allows the major parties to run single issue dummy parties to rally their base so the system doesn't really hurt them at all.
Yes, RKP supports DPK everywhere in FPTP seats.

Thanks. Where did you find this graphic??

Yonhap via Google

Thanks. So Gangnam and Seocheo are the most affluent districts of Seoul, right?? And the areas Yoon won with under 50 % are swing areas that voted for Moon and the Democrats in the elections before and will vote for them this election again??

Sorry for asking all these question, don´t know all that much about Politics in Asia.

More or less so. But Seoul is extremely swingy so who they will vote for in 2027 is up in the air.

[Germany1994]

 How do Protestants, Catholics and Buddhists usually vote in South Korea??

[PSOL]

You know, I think this campaign is less chronically online and cringe than the norm of the prior presidential election. So far nothing crazy has happened outside of the attempted murder of the DPK candidate. Usually South Korean politics are way more chronically online and zany than this, as per the norm in East Asia.

[Logical]

Final early voting turnout stands at 31.28%
For comparison early voting turnout in 2020 was 26.69%, for 2022 it was 36.93%
Highest in South Jeolla at 41.19%
Lowest in Daegu at 25.60%

Nothing out of the ordinary yet. Like their American cousins Korean conservatives prefer voting on e-day than early.

[Flyersfan232]

how big is the the collapsing birth rate being talked about?

[Logical]

The PR section is whole different beast as the result of a botched attempt at electoral reform. The two main parties will be running satellite lists to circumvent the electoral system. DPK's satellite list is called the Democratic Alliance of Korea (DAK) and includes candidates from the far left Progressive Party and other smaller progressive parties. PPP's satellite list is called the People's Future Party (PFP).

Oh God, I can't believe a different country managed to replicate the 2001 Italian election with its liste civetta.

Fun fact, a recent bestselling book about contemporary South Korean politics makes a convincing argument that the nation is turning into Italy.

An aging society with drastic regional inequality?
Abysmal female labor force participation?
Dysfunctional political parties turning into personality cults for their leaders?
Politicians embracing cheap populism to avoid taking the difficult reforms necessary to turn the country around?
Trading the future of the youth for short term electoral gains with the increasingly gerontocratic party base?
Sounds pretty familiar....

[Battista Minola 1616]

An aging society with drastic regional inequality?
Abysmal female labor force participation?
Dysfunctional political parties turning into personality cults for their leaders?
Politicians embracing cheap populism to avoid taking the difficult reforms necessary to turn the country around?
Trading the future of the youth for short term electoral gains with the increasingly gerontocratic party base?
Sounds pretty familiar....

Most of these are less "turning into Italy" and "leapfrogging Italy in one go" given the state of South Korea...

Also wishing them better luck when someone comes along swearing off populism and actually promising difficult reforms necessary to turn the country around, because it seems to me that the track record of that in terms of actually turning the country around is quite poor.

[PSOL]

At some point South Korea, and really most of East Asia, needs to adopt pro-family social welfare policies and accept the reality that immigration is desperately needed at levels higher than what it is now. The only reason why, outside of war being good for business, Russia and the US economies are booming right now is that accepting immigrants en masse to deal with labor shortages and fill up the professional class cheaply.

[jaichind]

https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=372408

Voter turnout stands at 59.3% as of 3 p.m.

[Logical]

Live broadcasts
KBS : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4j8bDsGlUQs
MBC : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwC8hHYUL0w
SBS : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aK52d64pI88
JTBC : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IjbQKk5MIM

All the main TV networks use the same polling firm to conduct their exit poll but they use different weights and biases to produce slightly different results. Legislative exit polls aren't as accurate as presidential exits, in 2016 & 2020 they overestimated the conservatives beyond the margin of error so keep that in mind. JTBC conducted an independent exit poll for the 2022 presidential elections and may do so again. All their election graphics are pretty fun.

Results page:
https://news.kbs.co.kr/special/election2024/countingStatus.html
https://imnews.imbc.com/issue/vote2024/vote/
https://www.chosun.com/election2024/vote/
https://www.yna.co.kr/election2024/result-22nd/index

Turnout as of 5 p.m. is 64.1% (+1.5). Polls close at 6 p.m. local time and exit polls will be released immediately.

[jaichind]

ROK exit polls tend to have a high margin of error but it is fun to watch the livestream of the various ROK party leaders react live to the exit polls.

[Logical]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAesIW0igwc
Live broadcast from the two main party's HQ. Always fun to see the reactions of party bosses when the exit polls drops.

[Logical]

Total PPP defeat. Liberal opposition to win 180-210 seats.

[jaichind]

Looks like PPP will be around what it got in 2020 with perhaps a small loss of seats. DPK bloc mainly gaining at the expense of the smaller parties like JP.

[jaichind]

More detailed exit poll breakdown by each "party"

DPK  172-183 (district)   DAK 12-14 (PR)
PPP  68-80 (district) PFP 17-19 (PR)
RKP 12-14 (PR)

From a PR point of view, the PPP bloc did not do that badly.  RKP PR vote seems to underperformed pre-election polls

[Antonio the Sixth]

Results page:
https://news.kbs.co.kr/special/election2024/countingStatus.html
https://imnews.imbc.com/issue/vote2024/vote/
https://www.chosun.com/election2024/vote/

Turnout as of 5 p.m. is 64.1% (+1.5). Polls close at 6 p.m. local time and exit polls will be released immediately.

Google Translate doesn't seem to work with any of these sites. Is there any English-speaking source reporting on the results?

[Logical]

FPTP constituencies from the exit poll
DPK win 142
PPP win 53
Others win 2
Too close to call 57

[jaichind]

DPK (Left) and PPP (Right) live headquarters reaction to exit polls

[jaichind]

Results page:
https://news.kbs.co.kr/special/election2024/countingStatus.html
https://imnews.imbc.com/issue/vote2024/vote/
https://www.chosun.com/election2024/vote/

Turnout as of 5 p.m. is 64.1% (+1.5). Polls close at 6 p.m. local time and exit polls will be released immediately.

Google Translate doesn't seem to work with any of these sites. Is there any English-speaking source reporting on the results?

https://imnews.imbc.com/issue/vote2024/vote/

seems to work fairly well with google translate

[Logical]

Results page:
https://news.kbs.co.kr/special/election2024/countingStatus.html
https://imnews.imbc.com/issue/vote2024/vote/
https://www.chosun.com/election2024/vote/

Turnout as of 5 p.m. is 64.1% (+1.5). Polls close at 6 p.m. local time and exit polls will be released immediately.

Google Translate doesn't seem to work with any of these sites. Is there any English-speaking source reporting on the results?

Unfortunately they don't exist. Korea and Japan do not make it easy for people who can't understand their language to follow their elections.

[Logical]

JTBC did a separate exit poll with slightly better results for PPP.

https://news.jtbc.co.kr/2024general_election.aspx

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP       40
DPK      27

Most of these leads are in rural areas outside Greater Seoul where DPK is expected to sweep.

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP       54
DPK      34

The regional disparities are still very stark.  Jeolla areas are still around 90-10 margins in favor of DPK and in the Gyeongsang area the margins are still around 80-20 in favor of PPP