2024 South Korean legislative election (April 10th)

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

DPK      144
PPP       106
PP            1
NRP          1
NFP          1
Ind           1 (looks like pro-DPK)

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

DPK      148
PPP       102
PP            1
NFP          1
NRP          1
Ind           1 (looks like pro-DPK)

Slow convergence toward exit polls

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

DPK      154
PPP         96
PP            1
NFP          1
NRP          1
Ind           1 (looks like pro-DPK)

Slow convergence toward exit polls

[Oryxslayer]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

DPK      148
PPP       102
PP            1
NFP          1
NRP          1
Ind           1 (looks like pro-DPK)

Slow convergence toward exit polls

As tabulation crosses 50%, the DPK lead big on the FPTP seats, increasing the numbers to 155 - 95

[Logical]

The independent isn't pro DPK, he's a former Park Geun-Hye minister who was jailed for receiving bribes from the head of the National Intelligence Service. After serving for 5 years he is running again in his former seat as an independent as the PPP would not give him the official nomination.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choi_Kyoung-hwan

[jaichind]

The independent isn't pro DPK, he's a former Park Geun-Hye minister who was jailed for receiving bribes from the head of the National Intelligence Service. After serving for 5 years he is running again in his former seat as an independent as the PPP would not give him the official nomination.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choi_Kyoung-hwan

Ah ... got it... thanks for that

[jaichind]

PR so far (only around 7% of the vote counted)

PFP(PPP)     20
DAK(DPK)   12
RKP            11
NRP             2

[Lachi]

Interestingly, Lee-Jun Seok is currently leading by about 3% in the seat he is contesting for New Reform, but it is also a very slow count there, only about 22% counted atm

[Logical]

Of DPK FPTP voters, 49.1% voted for their official satellite (DAK), 39.2% for RKP, 2.9% for PFP, 2.8% for NRP, 2.4% for GJP and 1.4% for NFP.


Of PPP FPTP voters, 78.8% voted for PFP, 3.8% for DAK, 3.6% for NRP, 2.6% for RKP, 1.3% for GJP (lol) and 1.1% for NFP.

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

DPK      157
PPP         93
PP            1
NFP          1
NRP          1
Ind           1 

Slow convergence toward exit polls

[jaichind]

PR so far (around 15% of the vote counted)

PFP(PPP)     20
DAK(DPK)   13
RKP            11
NRP             2

[jaichind]

70% of the vote counted for FPTP

DPK      159
PPP         92
PP            1
NFP          1
NRP          1
 

[Logical]

Exit poll crosstabs by age

FPTP vote


PR vote

Left to right : DAK, PFP, GJP, NFP, NRP, RKP
You can see NRP's appeal to a certain subsection of disaffected Korean youth and how old the PPP party base is. RKP does best among the 386 generation, where Cho has near cult like status with them.

[jaichind]

At this stage we can say that PPP has outperformed exit polls. It is not an outperformance by a large margin but it is an outperformance.  They also have for sure cleared the 1/3 mark and very likely gained a few seats relative to 2020

[Battista Minola 1616]

It's interesting to me that the conservatives see only a tiny improvement with the youngest voters compared to their 386 generation nadir. My recollection is that Yoon's pattern of support in 2022 was more bipolar than that. I imagine that's directly related to the many (male) youth who opted for the NRP?

[Logical]

It's interesting to me that the conservatives see only a tiny improvement with the youngest voters compared to their 386 generation nadir. My recollection is that Yoon's pattern of support in 2022 was more bipolar than that. I imagine that's directly related to the many (male) youth who opted for the NRP?

Yes, and Yoon has distanced himself from the anti-feminist rhetoric of his presidential campaign. Those type of hardcore incel anti-system voters are probably back to being non voters.

[Logical]

81% counted. PPP rebounding a little in FPTP seats.

DPK 156
PPP 95
PP 1 (Supported by DPK)
NFP 1 (DPK candidate in safe seat withdraws after scandal)
NRP 1 (Party leader's seat)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

GJP wiped out?

[jaichind]

PR so far (around 30% of the vote counted)

PFP(PPP)     19
DAK(DPK)   13
RKP            12
NRP             2

[jaichind]

GJP wiped out?

They are mostly about the PR vote to get seats and it seems this time RKP ate up a good chunk of their PR vote.

[Logical]

Justice Party used to get PR votes from left wing DPK voters who want to push the party to the left. But the relationship between the two has deteriorated and Justice Party is criticized for being a one woman show. So left wing voters gravitated towards the Progressive Party who are more open to working with DPK. The highly polarized environment since Yoon became president also did not help.

[Logical]

91% counted. Almost done now.

DPK 158
PPP 93
PP 1 (Supported by DPK)
NFP 1 (DPK candidate in safe seat withdraws after scandal)
NRP 1 (Party leader's seat)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Justice Party used to get PR votes from left wing DPK voters who want to push the party to the left. But the relationship between the two has deteriorated and Justice Party is criticized for being a one woman show. So left wing voters gravitated towards the Progressive Party who are more open to working with DPK. The highly polarized environment since Yoon became president also did not help.

I was surprised that the Progressives were able to work with the DPK. From what I've seen there's always been a lot of worry about working with anyone left of the JP because of accusations of being supported by NK (especially after the UPP fiasco)

Have the Progressives moderated or is the overton window just shifting enough for them to fit into the system now?

[Logical]

Justice Party used to get PR votes from left wing DPK voters who want to push the party to the left. But the relationship between the two has deteriorated and Justice Party is criticized for being a one woman show. So left wing voters gravitated towards the Progressive Party who are more open to working with DPK. The highly polarized environment since Yoon became president also did not help.

I was surprised that the Progressives were able to work with the DPK. From what I've seen there's always been a lot of worry about working with anyone left of the JP because of accusations of being supported by NK (especially after the UPP fiasco)

Have the Progressives moderated or is the overton window just shifting enough for them to fit into the system now?

The Overton window has shifted and they are smart enough to keep juche loving sects away from the party. Instead they campaign on mostly boilerplate leftist stuff like LGBT rights, feminism, labor and welfare etc.

[Storr]

DPK (Left) and PPP (Right) live headquarters reaction to exit polls

I appreciate the quirkiness of DPK officials wearing American high school athletics letterman style jackets. I assume there's some reason for that choice. Maybe because they were trying look uniform and stylish on television?