March 2024, who is more likely to lose? Brown or Tester?
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  March 2024, who is more likely to lose? Brown or Tester?
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Poll
Question: Who is more likely to lose re-election?
#1
Sherrod Brown
 
#2
Jon Tester
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 59

Author Topic: March 2024, who is more likely to lose? Brown or Tester?  (Read 811 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: March 22, 2024, 11:06:58 PM »

Who is more likely to lose re-election?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2024, 06:11:39 PM »

Tester, but not by much.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2024, 02:38:57 AM »

One thing I've noticed is Moreno is running a very blue collar, "populist" campaign and trying to steal some ground on Brown's signature issue of labor. Additionally, Brown lacks the same crossover appeal that Tester has judging by his 2012 performance. Meanwhile, Sheehy's campaign is very bland and very generic in comparison. His campaign doesn't seem tailored for Montana and he is basically running the Republican's generic culture war template.

The only reason why Brown on paper has higher odds is the partisan lean of the states. But if we go based off candidate quality, and considering the nation might actually be depolarizing a bit, I think Tester is in better shape. Plus smaller states have easier swings and crossover appeal factors that Tester could utilize to his advantage.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2024, 10:44:35 AM »

Neither will Tester is getting lots of donations he is the more vulnerable
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Grumpier Than Thou
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« Reply #4 on: April 02, 2024, 10:46:00 AM »

I'm actually going to say Brown. I feel like Tester is so uniquely made for a state like Montana that I can't see him losing. I think both will ultimately win, but I think Brown will win by a smaller margin.
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David Hume
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« Reply #5 on: April 02, 2024, 04:26:20 PM »

One thing I've noticed is Moreno is running a very blue collar, "populist" campaign and trying to steal some ground on Brown's signature issue of labor. Additionally, Brown lacks the same crossover appeal that Tester has judging by his 2012 performance. Meanwhile, Sheehy's campaign is very bland and very generic in comparison. His campaign doesn't seem tailored for Montana and he is basically running the Republican's generic culture war template.

The only reason why Brown on paper has higher odds is the partisan lean of the states. But if we go based off candidate quality, and considering the nation might actually be depolarizing a bit, I think Tester is in better shape. Plus smaller states have easier swings and crossover appeal factors that Tester could utilize to his advantage.


To me the most crucial factor Tester being favored is that MT is a much smaller state than OH.
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Zenobiyl
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« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2024, 06:28:54 PM »

Voted Brown before because of Testerís strengths, but seeing Morenoís shocking performance in the primary Iím even more convinced Ohioís gonna be the more likely flip.
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Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
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« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2024, 11:42:02 PM »

In my head I still see Tester as having maybe a 1-in-3 shot, but I've completely written Brown off as DOA.
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Yoda
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« Reply #8 on: April 03, 2024, 01:47:06 AM »

I say Brown, but that's b/c I have a sneaky feeling that Tester actually ends up winning by more than most people think he will, something like 5-7%. I think Brown wins too but it will be around 2%.
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jfern
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« Reply #9 on: April 03, 2024, 02:18:28 AM »

I went with Brown since MT has had at least 1 Democratic Senator since the 17th amendment.
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Dave Hedgehog
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« Reply #10 on: April 03, 2024, 09:04:56 AM »

I think there is more scope for Tester to end up suffering a heavy loss like Bullock and Cooney in 2020 so I went with him, but I also think he is much more likely to end up pulling out a strikingly good victory margin like Collins 2020 than is Brown. With Brown I think there is much less potential variation in the final results; narrow victory or narrow defeat.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #11 on: April 03, 2024, 01:38:09 PM »

I went with Brown because he has lower approvals and Ohio will most likely end up with less ticket splitting voters. Tester just has an extremely strong brand.

However, at the moment I tend to believe that both will lose. Neither is DOA though and I would still give Tester a 40-45% chance and Brown a 35-40% chance to hang on.
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Steve from Lambeth
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« Reply #12 on: April 11, 2024, 11:49:20 PM »

I'm assuming that Brown and Tester have a ~two-thirds chance of winning re-election unless something inexplicable happens.
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MarkD
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« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2024, 03:21:29 AM »

I think Tester is more likely to lose due to MT's more rural and, hence, more Republican.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2024, 06:35:15 AM »

Moreno is less phony and more relatable than Sheehy. So Brown
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