March 2024, who is more likely to lose? Brown or Tester?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who is more likely to lose re-election?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tester, but not by much.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One thing I've noticed is Moreno is running a very blue collar, "populist" campaign and trying to steal some ground on Brown's signature issue of labor. Additionally, Brown lacks the same crossover appeal that Tester has judging by his 2012 performance. Meanwhile, Sheehy's campaign is very bland and very generic in comparison. His campaign doesn't seem tailored for Montana and he is basically running the Republican's generic culture war template.

The only reason why Brown on paper has higher odds is the partisan lean of the states. But if we go based off candidate quality, and considering the nation might actually be depolarizing a bit, I think Tester is in better shape. Plus smaller states have easier swings and crossover appeal factors that Tester could utilize to his advantage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither will Tester is getting lots of donations he is the more vulnerable

[Lambsbread]

I'm actually going to say Brown. I feel like Tester is so uniquely made for a state like Montana that I can't see him losing. I think both will ultimately win, but I think Brown will win by a smaller margin.

[David Hume]

One thing I've noticed is Moreno is running a very blue collar, "populist" campaign and trying to steal some ground on Brown's signature issue of labor. Additionally, Brown lacks the same crossover appeal that Tester has judging by his 2012 performance. Meanwhile, Sheehy's campaign is very bland and very generic in comparison. His campaign doesn't seem tailored for Montana and he is basically running the Republican's generic culture war template.

The only reason why Brown on paper has higher odds is the partisan lean of the states. But if we go based off candidate quality, and considering the nation might actually be depolarizing a bit, I think Tester is in better shape. Plus smaller states have easier swings and crossover appeal factors that Tester could utilize to his advantage.

To me the most crucial factor Tester being favored is that MT is a much smaller state than OH.

[Zenobiyl]

Voted Brown before because of Tester’s strengths, but seeing Moreno’s shocking performance in the primary I’m even more convinced Ohio’s gonna be the more likely flip.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

In my head I still see Tester as having maybe a 1-in-3 shot, but I've completely written Brown off as DOA.

[Yoda]

I say Brown, but that's b/c I have a sneaky feeling that Tester actually ends up winning by more than most people think he will, something like 5-7%. I think Brown wins too but it will be around 2%.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I went with Brown since MT has had at least 1 Democratic Senator since the 17th amendment.

[Dave Hedgehog]

I think there is more scope for Tester to end up suffering a heavy loss like Bullock and Cooney in 2020 so I went with him, but I also think he is much more likely to end up pulling out a strikingly good victory margin like Collins 2020 than is Brown. With Brown I think there is much less potential variation in the final results; narrow victory or narrow defeat.

[President Johnson]

I went with Brown because he has lower approvals and Ohio will most likely end up with less ticket splitting voters. Tester just has an extremely strong brand.

However, at the moment I tend to believe that both will lose. Neither is DOA though and I would still give Tester a 40-45% chance and Brown a 35-40% chance to hang on.

[Steve from Lambeth]

I'm assuming that Brown and Tester have a ~two-thirds chance of winning re-election unless something inexplicable happens.

[MarkD]

I think Tester is more likely to lose due to MT's more rural and, hence, more Republican.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Moreno is less phony and more relatable than Sheehy. So Brown