Would Mitt Romney have won the presidency if he ran in 2016?

[JMT]

This is a tough question, and I’m not sure of the answer. Curious to hear other people’s thoughts!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Loses the nomination, but would have won the general in a landslide if he made it there.

[oldtimer]

Romney barely won by the skin of his teeth the 2012 GOP nomination.

By 2016 his potential primary voter pool shrank even further as a share of the GOP, so he would never even get a chance.

[MABA 2020]

Against Hillary probably, but he would've lost to Trump along with all the other jokers before winning the nomination

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

I don't think Romney wins the nomination in 2016 given that a lot of the damage to his campaign in 2012 was arguably self-inflicted (primarily the 47% and "binders full of women" incidents).

Most likely Romney's only hope in 2016 would have been similar to 2012 where the more conservative candidates ended up cannibalizing the "anti-Romney" vote and taking swipes at themselves (Michele Bachmann's swipe at Herman Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan comes to mind) that whoever ended up as the alternative was too wounded to mount much of a challenge.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I doubt that Trump would've run in 2016 if Romney won unless Romney pledged to serve one term which is highly unlikely. I think that he would've won the general but lose the popular vote to a Dem in 2016. If Obama was the nominee in 2016, then Clinton would be in 2020. If not, then it's likely a Dem like Andrew Cuomo or Gavin Newsom (I assume that Biden retires from politics after 2012 and I doubt that Obama would choose him as VP again if he ran in 2016).

[dw93]

He would've lost the nomination. He lost a winnable election in 2012, how does he get renominated after that? It would be like the Democrats renominating Hillary in 2020 or Kerry in 2008.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

He would've lost the nomination. He lost a winnable election in 2012, how does he get renominated after that? It would be like the Democrats renominating Hillary in 2020 or Kerry in 2008.

Romney and Kerry really only lost winnable elections if you really stretch the definition of winnable to its absolute limits beyond what is realistic.