Which states will be within 10 points in 2024?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

NC: Trump +8
GA: Trump +6
MI: Trump +6
AK: Trump +5
NV: Trump +4
WI: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +2
PA: Biden +0
NM: Biden +2
ME: Biden +4
VA: Biden +4
MN: Biden +4
NH: Biden +6
NJ: Biden +8
NY: Biden +9

CO, FL, IA, OH & TX outside 10 range.

PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically

Why?
- Scranton Joe has home advantage
- Clinton did better in 2016 in Philly than Biden did in terms of turn-out (contrary to the trend of that year), so room for growth (or less room to fall) barring a collapse
- 2022 was great for Democrats in PA and they seem to like the national brand a lot more
- Rurals are basically maxed out here, whereas in WI and esp MI they aren't.
- Minority groups is more favourable than elsewhere
- Philly suburbs basically are not really suburbs typical for Rust Belt. Philly is northeastern in vibe

A lot of focus will be on this state, and i think it's the least likely one of the Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 states to flip back.

If Trump wants to win it, he needs high third party share I believe and probably a collapse in Philadelphia for Biden, and in this case a total collapse because 2020 wasn't great for Biden too in Philly and he still won the state by 3. Clinton in 2016 did better in Philly, yet she lost the state because the suburbs didn't trend as much left as they are today.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

AK: Trump +<10
OH: Trump +<10
TX: Trump+8
FL: Trump+7
ME-02: Trump+7
NC: Trump+2
GA: Trump+1
WI: Trump+<1
MI: Trump+<1
PA: Biden+<1
AZ: Biden+<1
NV: Biden+1
MN: Biden+5
ME: Biden+6
NE-02: Biden+6
NH: Biden+7
VA: Biden+8
NM: Biden+<10

[EastwoodS]

I’m gonna see a lot of predictions that look like a PV of Biden +2 rather than what it most likely will look like Trump +2. Let it begin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC: Trump +8
GA: Trump +6
MI: Trump +6
AK: Trump +5
NV: Trump +4
WI: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +2
PA: Biden +0
NM: Biden +2
ME: Biden +4
VA: Biden +4
MN: Biden +4
NH: Biden +6
NJ: Biden +8
NY: Biden +9

CO, FL, IA, OH & TX outside 10 range.

PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically

Why?
- Scranton Joe has home advantage
- Clinton did better in 2016 in Philly than Biden did in terms of turn-out (contrary to the trend of that year), so room for growth (or less room to fall) barring a collapse
- 2022 was great for Democrats in PA and they seem to like the national brand a lot more
- Rurals are basically maxed out here, whereas in WI and esp MI they aren't.
- Minority groups is more favourable than elsewhere
- Philly suburbs basically are not really suburbs typical for Rust Belt. Philly is northeastern in vibe

A lot of focus will be on this state, and i think it's the least likely one of the Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 states to flip back.

If Trump wants to win it, he needs high third party share I believe and probably a collapse in Philadelphia for Biden, and in this case a total collapse because 2020 wasn't great for Biden too in Philly and he still won the state by 3. Clinton in 2016 did better in Philly, yet she lost the state because the suburbs didn't trend as much left as they are today.

MI isn't going R and neither are AZ and NV


It's a 303/225 Dap

[MR DARK BRANDON]

AK: Trump +9.5
OH: Trump +8.5
FL: Trump +6.5
TX: Trump +6
NC: Trump +2.5
GA: Trump +0.5
WI: Biden +0.5
NV: Biden +1
AZ: Biden +1
PA: Biden +1
MI: Biden +2.5
MN: Biden +7
NH: Biden +7.5
ME: Biden +7.5
VA: Biden +9

287-251 Biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden is up 7 in PA news flash NV, AZ and MI aren't Lean R

[President Johnson]

Florida: Trump +9
Alaska: Trump +8
Texas: Trump +5
North Carolina: +/- <1 either way
Wisconsin: Biden +2
Georgia: Biden +2
Arizona: Biden +3
Nevada: Biden +3
Pennsylvania: Biden +3
Michigan: Biden +5
Minnesota: Biden +6
New Hampshire: Biden +8
Maine: Biden +9

Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa are oustide that range.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have to watch out for OH we don't know how that state will vote it's still has 12 pts Blks, this isn't 1988 when OH was solid R, especially with Brown on Ballot

[ProgressiveModerate]

Many's people lists are too simillar to 2020 Imo. Here's mine:

IA: Trump + 8
FL: Trump + 7
OH: Trump + 6
AK: Trump + 5
TX: Trump + 2
NC: Trump + 2
NV: Trump + 0
MI: Biden + 2
WI: Biden + 2
GA: Biden + 3
PA: Biden + 3
AZ: Biden + 5
MN: Biden + 8
NM: Biden + 9
ME: Biden + 9

[ProgressiveModerate]

Florida: Trump +9
Alaska: Trump +8
Texas: Trump +5
North Carolina: +/- <1 either way
Wisconsin: Biden +2
Georgia: Biden +2
Arizona: Biden +3
Nevada: Biden +3
Pennsylvania: Biden +3
Michigan: Biden +5
Minnesota: Biden +6
New Hampshire: Biden +8
Maine: Biden +9

Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa are oustide that range.

In this scenario, why do you think MN (and presumably OH and IA) swing right while the "big 3" shift left?

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC: Trump +8
GA: Trump +6
MI: Trump +6
AK: Trump +5
NV: Trump +4
WI: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +2
PA: Biden +0
NM: Biden +2
ME: Biden +4
VA: Biden +4
MN: Biden +4
NH: Biden +6
NJ: Biden +8
NY: Biden +9

CO, FL, IA, OH & TX outside 10 range.

PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically

Why?
- Scranton Joe has home advantage
- Clinton did better in 2016 in Philly than Biden did in terms of turn-out (contrary to the trend of that year), so room for growth (or less room to fall) barring a collapse
- 2022 was great for Democrats in PA and they seem to like the national brand a lot more
- Rurals are basically maxed out here, whereas in WI and esp MI they aren't.
- Minority groups is more favourable than elsewhere
- Philly suburbs basically are not really suburbs typical for Rust Belt. Philly is northeastern in vibe

A lot of focus will be on this state, and i think it's the least likely one of the Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 states to flip back.

If Trump wants to win it, he needs high third party share I believe and probably a collapse in Philadelphia for Biden, and in this case a total collapse because 2020 wasn't great for Biden too in Philly and he still won the state by 3. Clinton in 2016 did better in Philly, yet she lost the state because the suburbs didn't trend as much left as they are today.

Your analysis of PA is interesting; while the "homeboy advantage thing" might be true in PA, it was also true in 2020 and typically we see home state advantages wane in re-election campaigns; see Obama losing ground in IL from 2008-->2012 or Bush losing ground in TX from 2000-->2004. In 2020, it does seem like Biden got somewhat of a genuine homeboy boost in NEPA; demographically similar areas in the region didn't swing as hard left, and in 2024 decent chance he loses ground there.

Also the Philly turnout thing is really underrated. Many parts of Philly cast fewer votes in 2020 than 2016, and Joe Biden didn't even get 20k more votes in the county as a whole.

I disagree a bit on the rurals thing. Certain rurals in more Appalachian parts of the state are close to being maxxed out, but GOP seems to have decent room to gain in the rurals in the northern half of the state, especially northeastern and northwestern PA.

Also agree with Philly being culturally more northeastern, and that only seems to be increasing with each election cycle.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Florida: Trump +9
Alaska: Trump +8
Texas: Trump +5
North Carolina: +/- <1 either way
Wisconsin: Biden +2
Georgia: Biden +2
Arizona: Biden +3
Nevada: Biden +3
Pennsylvania: Biden +3
Michigan: Biden +5
Minnesota: Biden +6
New Hampshire: Biden +8
Maine: Biden +9

Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa are oustide that range.

In this scenario, why do you think MN (and presumably OH and IA) swing right while the "big 3" shift left?

MN i think is very friendly to Biden, the issue is i do expect quite a higher third party share, more comparable to 2016 and MN has a tradition of being friendly to third parties, close to being a fluke in 2016 but also being the state where Jesse Ventura once was governor. However, the demographics aren't very favourable to Trump and the rural areas aren't that populated. Minnesota also has quite a progressive tradition. While libertarianism on foreign policy and "focus on the border" might work well here, other parts where Trump and the GOP are associated with are toxic here (like Dobbs).

Demographics seem to favourable to Biden based on the trends, though i underestimated the (relative) number of muslims and arab-americans compared to other states, being closer to that of Michigan but I do think those numbers are too small to matter in a state that is likely Biden.

__

I don't see IA & OH as competitive and in an election where I expect Trump to be somewhat favoured, IA & OH might tip over 10, simply also for the fact that Trump got a margin over 8 in a year he didn't even win the presidency. While Iowa doesn't even have any competitive elections downballot and was closer to 9. Not much is needed to get these over 10, unless there's some reverse trend that i'm not aware off.

Lol, and i realize that wasn't a quote of me (sorry about that). And tbh in the case of PJ i think it's just wishful thinking on the competitive states and realistic margins elsewhere (though overinflated on some of the "memes" like NH +8 and FL +9 (and OH/IA over +10 if Biden has no trouble keeping the entire swing state column)

[DS0816]

Re: Which states will be within 10 points in 2024?

Effective 01.28.2024: I currently estimate an Election 2024 outcome that will be a Republican pickup for U.S. President—a second term, in a non-consecutive cycle, won by Donald Trump—with a U.S. Popular Vote of R+3. This would come with 31 carried states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes. Pickups would be: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada.

The above map shows most states, appearing in gray, carry for either major party above +10 percentage points. For those under +10, I gave them a color-coding they each experienced with Election 2020: The winning party, for a given state (or a congressional district), from that election cycle.

Fourteen states, by my estimate, are ones I think may end up less than +10 percentage points in the 2024 column for the Republican or Democratic parties. (Thirteen of these states were in the 2020 column for the Democratic Party and incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden.)

A Republican [pickup-] winning year, for U.S. President, with a +3 national margin, will put Democratic-aligned states like Virginia and Colorado in single digits. It can also do that with Oregon, which I can imagine at D+9, for the following reason: I think states like Illinois, New Jersey, and Washington would come down to the lower half of +10s. Illinois, for one, seems to run about +12 to +15 percentage points more Democratic vs. how the nation votes. Often times, when it comes to looking at the Democrats’s ten-best carried states, the trio fight it out for that No. 10 slot; the two which don’t get there rank Nos. 11 and 12. So, in this scenario, I leave those three states reaching +10, for the 2024 Democrats, while Oregon (the party’s No. 13 best state), falls just below +10 to be, say, +9.xx.

There will be more to go over, especially in coming months, but I will last focus here on the 2020-to-2024 Republican holds. North Carolina, the No. 25 best state for both the 2016 and 2020 Republicans (No. 26 for the 2016 and 2020 Democrats), is positioned to become the next bellwether state. And since its 2020 margin was R+1.35, and here I am thinking a national 2024 outcome of R+3, I think the best it can perform is R+9. So, 2024 Republican pickups of Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada would rank after the Tar Heel State. (If you don’t mind imagining one-point increments: R+8 down to R+3.) And this means the likes of Texas—along with 2016 Republican-realigned states Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and non-state Maine’s 2nd Congressional District—will all perform at +10 and more.

This is very good topic.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

NC: Trump +8
GA: Trump +6
MI: Trump +6
AK: Trump +5
NV: Trump +4
WI: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +2
PA: Biden +0
NM: Biden +2
ME: Biden +4
VA: Biden +4
MN: Biden +4
NH: Biden +6
NJ: Biden +8
NY: Biden +9

CO, FL, IA, OH & TX outside 10 range.

PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically

Why?
- Scranton Joe has home advantage
- Clinton did better in 2016 in Philly than Biden did in terms of turn-out (contrary to the trend of that year), so room for growth (or less room to fall) barring a collapse
- 2022 was great for Democrats in PA and they seem to like the national brand a lot more
- Rurals are basically maxed out here, whereas in WI and esp MI they aren't.
- Minority groups is more favourable than elsewhere
- Philly suburbs basically are not really suburbs typical for Rust Belt. Philly is northeastern in vibe

A lot of focus will be on this state, and i think it's the least likely one of the Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 states to flip back.

If Trump wants to win it, he needs high third party share I believe and probably a collapse in Philadelphia for Biden, and in this case a total collapse because 2020 wasn't great for Biden too in Philly and he still won the state by 3. Clinton in 2016 did better in Philly, yet she lost the state because the suburbs didn't trend as much left as they are today.

Your analysis of PA is interesting; while the "homeboy advantage thing" might be true in PA, it was also true in 2020 and typically we see home state advantages wane in re-election campaigns; see Obama losing ground in IL from 2008-->2012 or Bush losing ground in TX from 2000-->2004. In 2020, it does seem like Biden got somewhat of a genuine homeboy boost in NEPA; demographically similar areas in the region didn't swing as hard left, and in 2024 decent chance he loses ground there.

Also the Philly turnout thing is really underrated. Many parts of Philly cast fewer votes in 2020 than 2016, and Joe Biden didn't even get 20k more votes in the county as a whole.

I disagree a bit on the rurals thing. Certain rurals in more Appalachian parts of the state are close to being maxxed out, but GOP seems to have decent room to gain in the rurals in the northern half of the state, especially northeastern and northwestern PA.

Also agree with Philly being culturally more northeastern, and that only seems to be increasing with each election cycle.

PA usually is thrown into MI/WI often because they're the three states that delivered a surprise in 2016 but I feel like PA is fundamentally different and PA is also a more diverse state as it's basically a mini-USA (very representative for the nation as a whole), because it has a bit of everything.

You are right in that I might be incorrect that the rurals aren't "maxed out", and that might be an incorrect take but of course, there's also room for growth for the Democrats too. It's an interesting state but I do think regardless of the outcome (unless the outcome is super weird), it'll be to the left of the tipping point, and favoured for the Democrats.

Detroit for instance, is a city Biden did very well in 2020 unlike Philly so there's room to fall there. Though it might also be the case that 2016 was just horrible for Clinton (contributing to her loss here). I do think though we will have more the 2016 vibes in terms of uniquely disliked candidates, and Michigan doesn't seem very favourable to Biden either (there are def. some issues that are unique to the state). I'm skeptical Biden will replicate Detroit's turnout and results again in 2024.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

We have to watch out for OH we don't know how that state will vote it's still has 12 pts Blks, this isn't 1988 when OH was solid R, especially with Brown on Ballot

MS has 37.8% blacks

[Progressive Pessimist]

Alaska: Trump+8.
Arizona: Biden+2.
Florida: Trump+9.
Georgia: Biden+1.
ME-2: Trump+9.
Michigan: Biden+3.
Minnesota: Biden+6.
NE-2: Biden+8.
Nevada: Biden+2.
New Hampshire: Biden+9.
North Carolina: Trump+1.
Ohio: Trump+9.
Pennsylvania: Biden+3.
Texas: Trump+5.
Wisconsin: Biden+1.

New Hampshire could possibly be Biden+10 or 11, and New Mexico or Virginia could be high single digit wins for him, but as you might be able to tell I am expecting something slightly similar to the 2020 results.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically

no - this is a silly meme based on two junk polls, nothing more

why is this forum incapable of using common sense

no, pa has not become as d as ny overnight

no, biden is not gaining with wwc voters or holding his own in the rurals/small towns of pa on a night when he’s getting clobbered in demographically and culturally similar areas everywhere else

no, biden is not making big gains in the philly metro on a night when he’s losing the popular vote by >3 points and collapsing in detroit and new york

no, biden's "home-state" advantage has not "increased" from where it was in 2020

no, pa will not vote 5+ points to the left of mi/wi

no, republicans are not "maxed out" in ne pa, let alone philadelphia or erie

I still have PA as a narrow hold in my 'prediction' here, also indicating a swing to the right, based on the popular vote.

[EastwoodS]

PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically

no - this is a silly meme based on two junk polls, nothing more

why is this forum incapable of using common sense

no, pa has not become as d as ny overnight

no, biden is not gaining with wwc voters or holding his own in the rurals/small towns of pa on a night when he’s getting clobbered in demographically and culturally similar areas everywhere else

no, biden is not making big gains in the philly metro on a night when he’s losing the popular vote by >3 points and collapsing in detroit and new york

no, biden's "home-state" advantage has not "increased" from where it was in 2020

no, pa will not vote 5+ points to the left of mi/wi

no, republicans are not "maxed out" in ne pa, let alone philadelphia or erie

That pollster who said that is so irresponsible for saying what he said

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically

no - this is a silly meme based on two junk polls, nothing more

why is this forum incapable of using common sense

no, pa has not become as d as ny overnight

no, biden is not gaining with wwc voters or holding his own in the rurals/small towns of pa on a night when he’s getting clobbered in demographically and culturally similar areas everywhere else

no, biden is not making big gains in the philly metro on a night when he’s losing the popular vote by >3 points and collapsing in detroit and new york

no, biden's "home-state" advantage has not "increased" from where it was in 2020

no, pa will not vote 5+ points to the left of mi/wi

no, republicans are not "maxed out" in ne pa, let alone philadelphia or erie

Junk polls Casey is on the ballot junk polls that have Trump up 5 and other polls have Biden leading you pred a red wave in 22

Laki thinks this is 2016 no it isn't totally different scenarios it was Pre Pandemic and Obamacare was unpopular, even in CA and IL some WC wanted Obamacare repealed Pre Pandemic not now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Re: Which states will be within 10 points in 2024?

Effective 01.28.2024: I currently estimate an Election 2024 outcome that will be a Republican pickup for U.S. President—a second term, in a non-consecutive cycle, won by Donald Trump—with a U.S. Popular Vote of R+3. This would come with 31 carried states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes. Pickups would be: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada.

The above map shows most states, appearing in gray, carry for either major party above +10 percentage points. For those under +10, I gave them a color-coding they each experienced with Election 2020: The winning party, for a given state (or a congressional district), from that election cycle.

Fourteen states, by my estimate, are ones I think may end up less than +10 percentage points in the 2024 column for the Republican or Democratic parties. (Thirteen of these states were in the 2020 column for the Democratic Party and incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden.)

A Republican [pickup-] winning year, for U.S. President, with a +3 national margin, will put Democratic-aligned states like Virginia and Colorado in single digits. It can also do that with Oregon, which I can imagine at D+9, for the following reason: I think states like Illinois, New Jersey, and Washington would come down to the lower half of +10s. Illinois, for one, seems to run about +12 to +15 percentage points more Democratic vs. how the nation votes. Often times, when it comes to looking at the Democrats’s ten-best carried states, the trio fight it out for that No. 10 slot; the two which don’t get there rank Nos. 11 and 12. So, in this scenario, I leave those three states reaching +10, for the 2024 Democrats, while Oregon (the party’s No. 13 best state), falls just below +10 to be, say, +9.xx.

There will be more to go over, especially in coming months, but I will last focus here on the 2020-to-2024 Republican holds. North Carolina, the No. 25 best state for both the 2016 and 2020 Republicans (No. 26 for the 2016 and 2020 Democrats), is positioned to become the next bellwether state. And since its 2020 margin was R+1.35, and here I am thinking a national 2024 outcome of R+3, I think the best it can perform is R+9. So, 2024 Republican pickups of Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada would rank after the Tar Heel State. (If you don’t mind imagining one-point increments: R+8 down to R+3.) And this means the likes of Texas—along with 2016 Republican-realigned states Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and non-state Maine’s 2nd Congressional District—will all perform, in that probable order, above +10.

This is very good topic.

TX, OH, NC and AK are vulnerable

eDays are futuristic not present

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Arizona Trump +8
Colorado Biden +9
Connecticut Biden +9
Delaware Biden +9
Georgia Trump +7
Illinois Biden +8
Maine at large Trump +1
Michigan Trump +6
Minnesota Trump +2
Nebraska-02 Trump +4
Nevada Trump +3
New Hampshire Biden +0
New Jersey Biden +8
New Mexico Biden +6
New York Biden +9
North Carolina Trump +8
Oregon Biden +8
Pennsylvania Trump +7
Rhode Island Biden +7
Texas Trump +9
Virginia Biden +2
Wisconsin Trump +9

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A 222DH 50/47/3 S  is a 52)45 70/60 M 2008 scenario which can easily be made in a Trump J6 scenario  which is AK, NC, TX and OH added to 303 we gonna win AZ,NV CO, NM

eDays are futuristic not present and that's NC and MT G too

[DS0816]

…

TX, OH, NC and AK are vulnerable
…

No.

None of the states from the 2020 Republican column are “vulnerable” in a 2024 Republican presidential pickup year.

The U.S. Popular Vote margin from 2020 was Democratic +4.45. A 2024 Republican pickup, not only for U.S. President but also for the U.S. Popular Vote, and that is +3, will shift the overwhelming majority of states generally in the direction of the Republicans.

I think some people are underestimating numerous state-to-state shifts.

[DS0816]

NC: Trump +8
GA: Trump +6
MI: Trump +6
AK: Trump +5
NV: Trump +4
WI: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +2
PA: Biden +0

…

PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically

…

In your scenario, you have Republican pickups in five of the commonly mentioned six states. Ranked by your listed margins: Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona. You have mentioned Pennsylvania as a Democratic hold.

Over the last three elections of 2012, 2016, and 2020, Pennsylvania ranked the Democrats’s No. 22 and the Republicans’s No. 29 best state. It may repeat those slots again here in 2024. This is the area of 260+ to 290+ electoral votes.

Pennsylvania has carried the same as Michigan in all five elections since the latter state first voted in 1836. The exceptions were in 1848, 1856, 1932, 1940, and 1976.

In 2020, Joe Biden became the first winning Democrat to carry both states with lower percentage-points margins than that of his U.S. Popular Vote.

Biden won nationally by +4.45 and won pickups of Michigan by +2.78 and Pennsylvania by +1.17.

In 2012, re-elected Democrat Barack Obama win the U.S. Popular Vote by +3.86 and carried Pennsylvania by +5.38 and Michigan by +9.46.

These two states have changed.

Pennsylvania and Michigan—along with Wisconsin—are now the nation’s leading bellwether states. Given this change, I sense that the Republicans, when they are the winning party, are going to have an advantage with making sure to carry them.

[ProgressiveModerate]

…

TX, OH, NC and AK are vulnerable
…

No.

None of the states from the 2020 Republican column are “vulnerable” in a 2024 Republican presidential pickup year.

The U.S. Popular Vote margin from 2020 was Democratic +4.45. A 2024 Republican pickup, not only for U.S. President but also for the U.S. Popular Vote, and that is +3, will shift the overwhelming majority of states generally in the direction of the Republicans.

I think some people are underestimating numerous state-to-state shifts.

States aren't tied to the NPV - they are individuals. Under this logic Hillary should've won MI, WI, and PA in 2016 because they voted well to the left of the popular. Biden should've won Florida in 2020 and Trump should've carried GA.

Very well could see a scenario  in 2024 where Biden loses ground in the NPV mostly due to CA, FL, and NY, simillar to 2022 (but not quite as extreme).