Which states will be within 10 points in 2024?

[DS0816]

States aren't tied to the NPV - they are individuals.

They are individual states. Individual popular vote, state after state, indeed. But, they are also connected to the United States Popular Vote.

Under this logic Hillary should've won MI, WI, and PA in 2016 because they voted well to the left of the popular.

Part of what I wrote is that their voting patterns have changed. This is why I also brought up a difference between a 2012 Barack Obama and a 2020 Joe Biden; their U.S. Popular Vote wins on a similar level; the differences of 2012 and 2020 Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with states-vs.-national margins; and that this should be considered with this year’s presidential election.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

…

TX, OH, NC and AK are vulnerable
…

No.

None of the states from the 2020 Republican column are “vulnerable” in a 2024 Republican presidential pickup year.

The U.S. Popular Vote margin from 2020 was Democratic +4.45. A 2024 Republican pickup, not only for U.S. President but also for the U.S. Popular Vote, and that is +3, will shift the overwhelming majority of states generally in the direction of the Republicans.

I think some people are underestimating numerous state-to-state shifts.

States aren't tied to the NPV - they are individuals. Under this logic Hillary should've won MI, WI, and PA in 2016 because they voted well to the left of the popular. Biden should've won Florida in 2020 and Trump should've carried GA.

Very well could see a scenario  in 2024 where Biden loses ground in the NPV mostly due to CA, FL, and NY, simillar to 2022 (but not quite as extreme).

In theory you're right but If Trump makes gains in the NPV than I don't see Biden gaining 5 points in one of the most populous states of the USA, esp since a path for that would be higher turnout. TX had 11 million people voting in 2020. And Biden would have to make up for a gap of 640.000, while losing ground in the NPV.

So you need 640.000 votes elsewhere.

And it's not like Texas is a completely unique state with completely different people than elsewhere in the country.

flipping TX stands for a gain of 0.4% alone compared to 2020 in the NPV. I don't think it can happen barren a third party surge in certain regions or a re-aligning elections.

The way you describe this does more apply to flipping NC at best or for small states such as Alaska that might swing contrary to the nation due to it's more isolated location. There i can see the possibility, even if unlikely if Trump makes gains.

The thing is Trump is consistently winning the NPV in aggregate polls at this point. Currently in RCP over 4 points. Biden won by 4.5 points. That's a swing of 8 points to the right. If 5% of Texas stands for just 0.4%. Where does the 8% comes from and how can Biden still win if Trump wins the NPV by 4.

Even if the polls are overestimating or if the race narrows, Trump won the 2016 while still losing by 3 points. That NPV shift isn't negligible, it isn't MoE either.

Some people definitely need to wake up, because I still see like "dark Brandon" maps where instead of losing ground, he gains basically everywhere except for the meme states like FL. And no, FL isn't that lost that it suddenly is going to vote Trump by 20. And that alone wouldn't explain the NPV shift.

A polling error is certainly possible, but it was never the case that all of polling simply was wrong or off. And sure it's still ten months away from the actual election is a valid argument, but it isn't a great sign, because it at the very least indicates turnout issues / enthusiasm issues, acc to polls in key demographics.

It isn't like people haven't made their mind by now, or need to see how the candidates behave in office or aren't familiar with them? No one should've lived under a rock for the past eight years... .

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Besides, there's no way Trump even comes close to winning the NPV if he loses OH. We're not returning to 2008 and 2012 maps where the gains he make will be in Colorado, Virginia, Utah, Alaska and all those states.

Secondly, Texas has a lot of young & hispanic voters and relies very much on not only the suburban areas but also the urban areas. Those are demographics Biden struggles with right now. It's not gonna happen. It might happen someday, but it'll have to be an inspirational candidate (Obama-tier or even Beto-tier) in a good year, or just take quite some time.

If it had to happen by now, it would have been 2020, not this year. 2028 perhaps if Trump wins in 2024 is a possibility, but not this year. The demographics in Texas are more suitable for charismatic candidates and anti-incumbency years.

Nominate someone young ppl and hispanics can actually be enthusiastic about, and Texas might flip. Sanders came quite close in 2020 to winning the primary too, so it's not like Texas would be toxic to a progressive (even if less progressive than Sanders but more younger and easier to identify with.)

[ProgressiveModerate]

…

TX, OH, NC and AK are vulnerable
…

No.

None of the states from the 2020 Republican column are “vulnerable” in a 2024 Republican presidential pickup year.

The U.S. Popular Vote margin from 2020 was Democratic +4.45. A 2024 Republican pickup, not only for U.S. President but also for the U.S. Popular Vote, and that is +3, will shift the overwhelming majority of states generally in the direction of the Republicans.

I think some people are underestimating numerous state-to-state shifts.

States aren't tied to the NPV - they are individuals. Under this logic Hillary should've won MI, WI, and PA in 2016 because they voted well to the left of the popular. Biden should've won Florida in 2020 and Trump should've carried GA.

Very well could see a scenario  in 2024 where Biden loses ground in the NPV mostly due to CA, FL, and NY, simillar to 2022 (but not quite as extreme).

In theory you're right but If Trump makes gains in the NPV than I don't see Biden gaining 5 points in one of the most populous states of the USA, esp since a path for that would be higher turnout. TX had 11 million people voting in 2020. And Biden would have to make up for a gap of 640.000, while losing ground in the NPV.

So you need 640.000 votes elsewhere.

And it's not like Texas is a completely unique state with completely different people than elsewhere in the country.

flipping TX stands for a gain of 0.4% alone compared to 2020 in the NPV. I don't think it can happen barren a third party surge in certain regions or a re-aligning elections.

The way you describe this does more apply to flipping NC at best or for small states such as Alaska that might swing contrary to the nation due to it's more isolated location. There i can see the possibility, even if unlikely if Trump makes gains.

The thing is Trump is consistently winning the NPV in aggregate polls at this point. Currently in RCP over 4 points. Biden won by 4.5 points. That's a swing of 8 points to the right. If 5% of Texas stands for just 0.4%. Where does the 8% comes from and how can Biden still win if Trump wins the NPV by 4.

Even if the polls are overestimating or if the race narrows, Trump won the 2016 while still losing by 3 points. That NPV shift isn't negligible, it isn't MoE either.

Some people definitely need to wake up, because I still see like "dark Brandon" maps where instead of losing ground, he gains basically everywhere except for the meme states like FL. And no, FL isn't that lost that it suddenly is going to vote Trump by 20. And that alone wouldn't explain the NPV shift.

A polling error is certainly possible, but it was never the case that all of polling simply was wrong or off. And sure it's still ten months away from the actual election is a valid argument, but it isn't a great sign, because it at the very least indicates turnout issues / enthusiasm issues, acc to polls in key demographics.

It isn't like people haven't made their mind by now, or need to see how the candidates behave in office or aren't familiar with them? No one should've lived under a rock for the past eight years... .

It depends on how much Trump is gaining in the NPV I guess. If it's only a modest 1 or 2% gain, it's very realistic even certain large diverse states like TX could swing left. If Trump is outright winning the NPV the only states that swing left will probably be smaller demographically homogenous states.

While I think it's unlikely FL votes for Trump by DeSantis margins, 2022 likely sealed the nail in the coffin for Dem 2024 investment. The significant dropoff in Dem investment could make the state shift/trend hard right again, even if Biden isn't actually losing much ground on persuasion in the state. Rmbr, most of Dems base in FL is still non-white groups already predisposed to low turnout.

I would say with TX, the leftwards shifts in the 4 main urban metro areas (Dallas, Houstin, Austin, and San Antonio) have been remarkably consistent even in cycles where Dems lose ground nationally like 2004 and 2016. This doesn't mean it'll necessarily continue, but I'd be pretty surprised if it didn't. Also GOP could still offset it at least partially with juicing more out of rural TX as they sort of did in 2020.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

…

TX, OH, NC and AK are vulnerable
…

No.

None of the states from the 2020 Republican column are “vulnerable” in a 2024 Republican presidential pickup year.

The U.S. Popular Vote margin from 2020 was Democratic +4.45. A 2024 Republican pickup, not only for U.S. President but also for the U.S. Popular Vote, and that is +3, will shift the overwhelming majority of states generally in the direction of the Republicans.

I think some people are underestimating numerous state-to-state shifts.

States aren't tied to the NPV - they are individuals. Under this logic Hillary should've won MI, WI, and PA in 2016 because they voted well to the left of the popular. Biden should've won Florida in 2020 and Trump should've carried GA.

Very well could see a scenario  in 2024 where Biden loses ground in the NPV mostly due to CA, FL, and NY, simillar to 2022 (but not quite as extreme).

In theory you're right but If Trump makes gains in the NPV than I don't see Biden gaining 5 points in one of the most populous states of the USA, esp since a path for that would be higher turnout. TX had 11 million people voting in 2020. And Biden would have to make up for a gap of 640.000, while losing ground in the NPV.

So you need 640.000 votes elsewhere.

And it's not like Texas is a completely unique state with completely different people than elsewhere in the country.

flipping TX stands for a gain of 0.4% alone compared to 2020 in the NPV. I don't think it can happen barren a third party surge in certain regions or a re-aligning elections.

The way you describe this does more apply to flipping NC at best or for small states such as Alaska that might swing contrary to the nation due to it's more isolated location. There i can see the possibility, even if unlikely if Trump makes gains.

The thing is Trump is consistently winning the NPV in aggregate polls at this point. Currently in RCP over 4 points. Biden won by 4.5 points. That's a swing of 8 points to the right. If 5% of Texas stands for just 0.4%. Where does the 8% comes from and how can Biden still win if Trump wins the NPV by 4.

Even if the polls are overestimating or if the race narrows, Trump won the 2016 while still losing by 3 points. That NPV shift isn't negligible, it isn't MoE either.

Some people definitely need to wake up, because I still see like "dark Brandon" maps where instead of losing ground, he gains basically everywhere except for the meme states like FL. And no, FL isn't that lost that it suddenly is going to vote Trump by 20. And that alone wouldn't explain the NPV shift.

A polling error is certainly possible, but it was never the case that all of polling simply was wrong or off. And sure it's still ten months away from the actual election is a valid argument, but it isn't a great sign, because it at the very least indicates turnout issues / enthusiasm issues, acc to polls in key demographics.

It isn't like people haven't made their mind by now, or need to see how the candidates behave in office or aren't familiar with them? No one should've lived under a rock for the past eight years... .

It depends on how much Trump is gaining in the NPV I guess. If it's only a modest 1 or 2% gain, it's very realistic even certain large diverse states like TX could swing left. If Trump is outright winning the NPV the only states that swing left will probably be smaller demographically homogenous states.

While I think it's unlikely FL votes for Trump by DeSantis margins, 2022 likely sealed the nail in the coffin for Dem 2024 investment. The significant dropoff in Dem investment could make the state shift/trend hard right again, even if Biden isn't actually losing much ground on persuasion in the state. Rmbr, most of Dems base in FL is still non-white groups already predisposed to low turnout.

I would say with TX, the leftwards shifts in the 4 main urban metro areas (Dallas, Houstin, Austin, and San Antonio) have been remarkably consistent even in cycles where Dems lose ground nationally like 2004 and 2016. This doesn't mean it'll necessarily continue, but I'd be pretty surprised if it didn't. Also GOP could still offset it at least partially with juicing more out of rural TX as they sort of did in 2020.

If the GOP juices more out of rural TX to offset it, it would still not swing left.

I agree that Texas will (esp. long term) trend left relative to the nation, and this might happen in 2024 too.

But a NPV shift, esp as currently predicted, that dramatically doesn't bode well.

Urban areas can swing left, if turnout is lower and there are less raw votes, a state could still swing right. And in states with big cities, turnout matters. And the issue polls are picking is up, is lack of enthusiasm, among lower informed voters, voters that stopped caring, demographics that aren't maybe as obsessed with politics as we do, perhaps because they're dissatisfied with both, consider both two evils and so on. It definitely would fit with the story with a fall of support Biden among youth & minority group voters, a turn-out issue. While a loss in support in suburban areas would be more attributed to issues such as the economy that might've been better during the Trump presidency. That's what the narrative would be.

Look, if Trump is gaining in the NPV. And people believe it's not the swing states, it's not Texas, it's not the northeast, than where do these voters come from?

[DS0816]

Besides, there's no way Trump even comes close to winning the NPV if he loses OH. …

The U.S. does not usually don’t get a presidential election which switches the party for the White House … and then flip a state the opposition party carried in the prior election. All the opposition-party carried states, from the prior U.S. presidential election, carry for that party as they win the pickup for U.S. President. And, typically, their margins solidify.

The 2020 U.S. Popular Vote was a margin of Democratic +4.45. If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup, and with a likewise pickup for the U.S. Popular Vote, it would require a national shift of R+4.46 in order to reach that minimum R+0.01. And if that happens, it will occur in well over the majority of the nation’s states (and, perhaps, District of Columbia and one may also refer to the districts in Maine and Nebraska).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Besides, there's no way Trump even comes close to winning the NPV if he loses OH. …

The U.S. does not usually don’t get a presidential election which switches the party for the White House … and then flip a state the opposition party carried in the prior election. All the opposition-party carried states, from the prior U.S. presidential election, carry for that party as they win the pickup for U.S. President. And, typically, their margins solidify.

The 2020 U.S. Popular Vote was a margin of Democratic +4.45. If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup, and with a likewise pickup for the U.S. Popular Vote, it would require a national shift of R+4.46 in order to reach that minimum R+0.01. And if that happens, it will occur in well over the majority of the nation’s states (and, perhaps, District of Columbia and one may also refer to the districts in Maine and Nebraska).

Tbf he did not say a NPV win for Trump.

And secondly, it doesn't indicate a unanimous shift in every single state, but you're right that it is unlikely and that a 4.46 swing likely means that if anything swings the other way, it'll only be at most a few select (smaller) states/districts, like Hawaii or D.C. or Alaska for instance where there's a good explanation why that theoretically could be the case.

If more, it means re-alignment election. And given it's a rematch of 2020, that's not gonna happen.

[ProgressiveModerate]

…

TX, OH, NC and AK are vulnerable
…

No.

None of the states from the 2020 Republican column are “vulnerable” in a 2024 Republican presidential pickup year.

The U.S. Popular Vote margin from 2020 was Democratic +4.45. A 2024 Republican pickup, not only for U.S. President but also for the U.S. Popular Vote, and that is +3, will shift the overwhelming majority of states generally in the direction of the Republicans.

I think some people are underestimating numerous state-to-state shifts.

States aren't tied to the NPV - they are individuals. Under this logic Hillary should've won MI, WI, and PA in 2016 because they voted well to the left of the popular. Biden should've won Florida in 2020 and Trump should've carried GA.

Very well could see a scenario  in 2024 where Biden loses ground in the NPV mostly due to CA, FL, and NY, simillar to 2022 (but not quite as extreme).

In theory you're right but If Trump makes gains in the NPV than I don't see Biden gaining 5 points in one of the most populous states of the USA, esp since a path for that would be higher turnout. TX had 11 million people voting in 2020. And Biden would have to make up for a gap of 640.000, while losing ground in the NPV.

So you need 640.000 votes elsewhere.

And it's not like Texas is a completely unique state with completely different people than elsewhere in the country.

flipping TX stands for a gain of 0.4% alone compared to 2020 in the NPV. I don't think it can happen barren a third party surge in certain regions or a re-aligning elections.

The way you describe this does more apply to flipping NC at best or for small states such as Alaska that might swing contrary to the nation due to it's more isolated location. There i can see the possibility, even if unlikely if Trump makes gains.

The thing is Trump is consistently winning the NPV in aggregate polls at this point. Currently in RCP over 4 points. Biden won by 4.5 points. That's a swing of 8 points to the right. If 5% of Texas stands for just 0.4%. Where does the 8% comes from and how can Biden still win if Trump wins the NPV by 4.

Even if the polls are overestimating or if the race narrows, Trump won the 2016 while still losing by 3 points. That NPV shift isn't negligible, it isn't MoE either.

Some people definitely need to wake up, because I still see like "dark Brandon" maps where instead of losing ground, he gains basically everywhere except for the meme states like FL. And no, FL isn't that lost that it suddenly is going to vote Trump by 20. And that alone wouldn't explain the NPV shift.

A polling error is certainly possible, but it was never the case that all of polling simply was wrong or off. And sure it's still ten months away from the actual election is a valid argument, but it isn't a great sign, because it at the very least indicates turnout issues / enthusiasm issues, acc to polls in key demographics.

It isn't like people haven't made their mind by now, or need to see how the candidates behave in office or aren't familiar with them? No one should've lived under a rock for the past eight years... .

It depends on how much Trump is gaining in the NPV I guess. If it's only a modest 1 or 2% gain, it's very realistic even certain large diverse states like TX could swing left. If Trump is outright winning the NPV the only states that swing left will probably be smaller demographically homogenous states.

While I think it's unlikely FL votes for Trump by DeSantis margins, 2022 likely sealed the nail in the coffin for Dem 2024 investment. The significant dropoff in Dem investment could make the state shift/trend hard right again, even if Biden isn't actually losing much ground on persuasion in the state. Rmbr, most of Dems base in FL is still non-white groups already predisposed to low turnout.

I would say with TX, the leftwards shifts in the 4 main urban metro areas (Dallas, Houstin, Austin, and San Antonio) have been remarkably consistent even in cycles where Dems lose ground nationally like 2004 and 2016. This doesn't mean it'll necessarily continue, but I'd be pretty surprised if it didn't. Also GOP could still offset it at least partially with juicing more out of rural TX as they sort of did in 2020.

If the GOP juices more out of rural TX to offset it, it would still not swing left.

I agree that Texas will (esp. long term) trend left relative to the nation, and this might happen in 2024 too.

But a NPV shift, esp as currently predicted, that dramatically doesn't bode well.

Urban areas can swing left, if turnout is lower and there are less raw votes, a state could still swing right. And in states with big cities, turnout matters. And the issue polls are picking is up, is lack of enthusiasm, among lower informed voters, voters that stopped caring, demographics that aren't maybe as obsessed with politics as we do, perhaps because they're dissatisfied with both, consider both two evils and so on. It definitely would fit with the story with a fall of support Biden among youth & minority group voters, a turn-out issue. While a loss in support in suburban areas would be more attributed to issues such as the economy that might've been better during the Trump presidency. That's what the narrative would be.

Look, if Trump is gaining in the NPV. And people believe it's not the swing states, it's not Texas, it's not the northeast, than where do these voters come from?

Yeah a combination of lower urban turnout and rural rightwards swings are likely what would shift TX R in 2024. This is sort of what happened in 2022; as you can see on my chart 2022 Ds did simillar to Biden in the main metro areas but further losses in rurals and low nonwhite turnout meant GOP won by double-digits. As a fairly optimistic Biden Dem, the scenario that worries me the most is one where Biden does fine on persuasion -perhaps even gaining ground, but turnout dynamics nationally favor the Trump.

To answer your last question, CA, NY, NJ, and a lot of the southeast, especially in states like MS, AR, LA, that really lack any substantial cities with positive shifts for Ds. Possibly a good chunk of the midwest as well, especially the states with lower college attainment like IN, IA, OH and MI.

[TDAS04]

As of now, I’d guess exactly the same states that were decided by single-digit margins in 2020. Plus Alaska and maybe Virginia and New Mexico, and minus Iowa.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As of now, I’d guess exactly the same states that were decided by single-digit margins in 2020. Plus Alaska, minus Iowa..and maybe minus Virginia and Mew Mexico.

VA and NM were double-digit Biden wins, albeit narrowly. If I had to guess for 2024, NM narrowly under 10 points, VA narrowly over.

[TDAS04]

As of now, I’d guess exactly the same states that were decided by single-digit margins in 2020. Plus Alaska, minus Iowa..and maybe minus Virginia and Mew Mexico.

VA and NM were double-digit Biden wins, albeit narrowly. If I had to guess for 2024, NM narrowly under 10 points, VA narrowly over.

Yes. I edited my post quickly, but not before you quoted it apparently.

[Malarkey Decider]

I'll Wager:

Minnesota: D+9
New Mexico: D+9
NE-2: D+9
Georgia: D+3
Arizona: D+2
Michigan: D+2
Wisconsin: D+<1
Pennsylvania: R+1
Nevada: R+1
North Carolina: R+3
Texas: R+4
Alaska: R+6
ME-2: R+8
Florida: R+8






Iowa, NH, Ohio, Maine fall outside

[patzer]

Swing states which will decide the election: AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI
Biden wins by single digit margin: MN, ME, NE-2, NH
Biden wins by single digit margin if the election goes badly for him: NJ, NM, NY, VA
Trump wins by single digit margin: NC, FL, TX.
Trump wins by single digit margin if election goes badly for him: AK, IA, OH

[Tekken_Guy]

NC: Trump +8
GA: Trump +6
MI: Trump +6
AK: Trump +5
NV: Trump +4
WI: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +2
PA: Biden +0
NM: Biden +2
ME: Biden +4
VA: Biden +4
MN: Biden +4
NH: Biden +6
NJ: Biden +8
NY: Biden +9

CO, FL, IA, OH & TX outside 10 range.

PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically

Why?
- Scranton Joe has home advantage
- Clinton did better in 2016 in Philly than Biden did in terms of turn-out (contrary to the trend of that year), so room for growth (or less room to fall) barring a collapse
- 2022 was great for Democrats in PA and they seem to like the national brand a lot more
- Rurals are basically maxed out here, whereas in WI and esp MI they aren't.
- Minority groups is more favourable than elsewhere
- Philly suburbs basically are not really suburbs typical for Rust Belt. Philly is northeastern in vibe

A lot of focus will be on this state, and i think it's the least likely one of the Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 states to flip back.

If Trump wants to win it, he needs high third party share I believe and probably a collapse in Philadelphia for Biden, and in this case a total collapse because 2020 wasn't great for Biden too in Philly and he still won the state by 3. Clinton in 2016 did better in Philly, yet she lost the state because the suburbs didn't trend as much left as they are today.

If Trump is winning Michigan by 6 he is easily winning PA, and also winning WI by way more than 3 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we worried about this now, Biden is attacking Trump now and will surge eventually

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC: Trump +8
GA: Trump +6
MI: Trump +6
AK: Trump +5
NV: Trump +4
WI: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +2
PA: Biden +0
NM: Biden +2
ME: Biden +4
VA: Biden +4
MN: Biden +4
NH: Biden +6
NJ: Biden +8
NY: Biden +9

CO, FL, IA, OH & TX outside 10 range.

PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically

Why?
- Scranton Joe has home advantage
- Clinton did better in 2016 in Philly than Biden did in terms of turn-out (contrary to the trend of that year), so room for growth (or less room to fall) barring a collapse
- 2022 was great for Democrats in PA and they seem to like the national brand a lot more
- Rurals are basically maxed out here, whereas in WI and esp MI they aren't.
- Minority groups is more favourable than elsewhere
- Philly suburbs basically are not really suburbs typical for Rust Belt. Philly is northeastern in vibe

A lot of focus will be on this state, and i think it's the least likely one of the Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 states to flip back.

If Trump wants to win it, he needs high third party share I believe and probably a collapse in Philadelphia for Biden, and in this case a total collapse because 2020 wasn't great for Biden too in Philly and he still won the state by 3. Clinton in 2016 did better in Philly, yet she lost the state because the suburbs didn't trend as much left as they are today.

Your analysis of PA is interesting; while the "homeboy advantage thing" might be true in PA, it was also true in 2020 and typically we see home state advantages wane in re-election campaigns; see Obama losing ground in IL from 2008-->2012 or Bush losing ground in TX from 2000-->2004. In 2020, it does seem like Biden got somewhat of a genuine homeboy boost in NEPA; demographically similar areas in the region didn't swing as hard left, and in 2024 decent chance he loses ground there.

Also the Philly turnout thing is really underrated. Many parts of Philly cast fewer votes in 2020 than 2016, and Joe Biden didn't even get 20k more votes in the county as a whole.

I disagree a bit on the rurals thing. Certain rurals in more Appalachian parts of the state are close to being maxxed out, but GOP seems to have decent room to gain in the rurals in the northern half of the state, especially northeastern and northwestern PA.

Also agree with Philly being culturally more northeastern, and that only seems to be increasing with each election cycle.

PA usually is thrown into MI/WI often because they're the three states that delivered a surprise in 2016 but I feel like PA is fundamentally different and PA is also a more diverse state as it's basically a mini-USA (very representative for the nation as a whole), because it has a bit of everything.

You are right in that I might be incorrect that the rurals aren't "maxed out", and that might be an incorrect take but of course, there's also room for growth for the Democrats too. It's an interesting state but I do think regardless of the outcome (unless the outcome is super weird), it'll be to the left of the tipping point, and favoured for the Democrats.

Detroit for instance, is a city Biden did very well in 2020 unlike Philly so there's room to fall there. Though it might also be the case that 2016 was just horrible for Clinton (contributing to her loss here). I do think though we will have more the 2016 vibes in terms of uniquely disliked candidates, and Michigan doesn't seem very favourable to Biden either (there are def. some issues that are unique to the state). I'm skeptical Biden will replicate Detroit's turnout and results again in 2024.

The increase big difference in Detroit vs Philly turnout increase is likely in part due to the fact Clinton actually took PA somewhat seriously in 2016 whereas she (and Dems as a whole) basically ignored MI. Also Detroit turnout honestly wasn't that much better in 2020 than 2016 with many precincts seeing turnout declines.

[Devils30]

NC: Trump +8
GA: Trump +6
MI: Trump +6
AK: Trump +5
NV: Trump +4
WI: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +2
PA: Biden +0
NM: Biden +2
ME: Biden +4
VA: Biden +4
MN: Biden +4
NH: Biden +6
NJ: Biden +8
NY: Biden +9

CO, FL, IA, OH & TX outside 10 range.

PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically

Why?
- Scranton Joe has home advantage
- Clinton did better in 2016 in Philly than Biden did in terms of turn-out (contrary to the trend of that year), so room for growth (or less room to fall) barring a collapse
- 2022 was great for Democrats in PA and they seem to like the national brand a lot more
- Rurals are basically maxed out here, whereas in WI and esp MI they aren't.
- Minority groups is more favourable than elsewhere
- Philly suburbs basically are not really suburbs typical for Rust Belt. Philly is northeastern in vibe

A lot of focus will be on this state, and i think it's the least likely one of the Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 states to flip back.

If Trump wants to win it, he needs high third party share I believe and probably a collapse in Philadelphia for Biden, and in this case a total collapse because 2020 wasn't great for Biden too in Philly and he still won the state by 3. Clinton in 2016 did better in Philly, yet she lost the state because the suburbs didn't trend as much left as they are today.

Your analysis of PA is interesting; while the "homeboy advantage thing" might be true in PA, it was also true in 2020 and typically we see home state advantages wane in re-election campaigns; see Obama losing ground in IL from 2008-->2012 or Bush losing ground in TX from 2000-->2004. In 2020, it does seem like Biden got somewhat of a genuine homeboy boost in NEPA; demographically similar areas in the region didn't swing as hard left, and in 2024 decent chance he loses ground there.

Also the Philly turnout thing is really underrated. Many parts of Philly cast fewer votes in 2020 than 2016, and Joe Biden didn't even get 20k more votes in the county as a whole.

I disagree a bit on the rurals thing. Certain rurals in more Appalachian parts of the state are close to being maxxed out, but GOP seems to have decent room to gain in the rurals in the northern half of the state, especially northeastern and northwestern PA.

Also agree with Philly being culturally more northeastern, and that only seems to be increasing with each election cycle.

PA usually is thrown into MI/WI often because they're the three states that delivered a surprise in 2016 but I feel like PA is fundamentally different and PA is also a more diverse state as it's basically a mini-USA (very representative for the nation as a whole), because it has a bit of everything.

You are right in that I might be incorrect that the rurals aren't "maxed out", and that might be an incorrect take but of course, there's also room for growth for the Democrats too. It's an interesting state but I do think regardless of the outcome (unless the outcome is super weird), it'll be to the left of the tipping point, and favoured for the Democrats.

Detroit for instance, is a city Biden did very well in 2020 unlike Philly so there's room to fall there. Though it might also be the case that 2016 was just horrible for Clinton (contributing to her loss here). I do think though we will have more the 2016 vibes in terms of uniquely disliked candidates, and Michigan doesn't seem very favourable to Biden either (there are def. some issues that are unique to the state). I'm skeptical Biden will replicate Detroit's turnout and results again in 2024.

The increase big difference in Detroit vs Philly turnout increase is likely in part due to the fact Clinton actually took PA somewhat seriously in 2016 whereas she (and Dems as a whole) basically ignored MI. Also Detroit turnout honestly wasn't that much better in 2020 than 2016 with many precincts seeing turnout declines.

The chances MI, WI, PA have more than 3% between them is very slim. You can look at as much polling as you want but these outcomes are clearly correlated.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Why are we worried about this now, Biden is attacking Trump now and will surge eventually

Like if that change ssomething, democrats are attacking Trump for 8 years now. It's not breaking news or something... .