Which way will Hawaii swing in 2024?
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Which way will Hawaii swing in 2024?		 « previous next »
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Question: From the 2020 margin.
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#2
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Total Voters: 31

Author Topic: Which way will Hawaii swing in 2024?  (Read 304 times)
TDAS04
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« on: January 27, 2024, 08:25:10 PM »
Hawaii swung further right than any other state in 2020, but Biden nonetheless carried the volcanic archipelago by 29%. Will Biden increase that margin this time?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2024, 06:14:01 PM »
Slightly left due to its typical pro-incumbent streak.
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MarkD
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2024, 09:04:27 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on January 28, 2024, 06:14:01 PM
Slightly left due to its typical habitual pro-incumbent streak.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2024, 10:54:29 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on January 28, 2024, 06:14:01 PM
Slightly left due to its typical pro-incumbent streak.
Is there any state you believe will swing right and explain the basically 10 point shift currently in polls, given you seem to believe everything's going to swing left.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2024, 11:35:05 PM »
Quote from: Laki on January 28, 2024, 10:54:29 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on January 28, 2024, 06:14:01 PM
Slightly left due to its typical pro-incumbent streak.
Is there any state you believe will swing right and explain the basically 10 point shift currently in polls, given you seem to believe everything's going to swing left.

Florida, Iowa, New Jersey, New York, probably most of the titanium R states (with the exceptions of Alaska, Kansas, and maybe Nebraska). Maybe some safe D states too, but I feel less sure about those.

But I am not anticipating the polls to remain stagnant until November.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2024, 05:29:34 AM »
Right but it won't make much difference
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mjba257
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« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2024, 08:37:21 AM »
Hawaii usually swings towards incumbents, but the Biden's response to the Maui wildfires was pretty egregious and for the people living there, it is still very fresh on their minds. So there could be a swing against him. I also can see RFK Jr. doing particularly well in HI, so that may cut into Biden's margin
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