Megathread: Effect of Biden support for Israel on the election

[pppolitics]

Biden is taking the position that is costing him the fewest number of votes. The situation is no-win.

No, he isn't

26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Israel is responding to the October 7th Hamas terrorist attack?

Democrats:

24% approve
58% disapprove
18% don't know

Independents:

34% approve
44% disapprove
22% don't know

Republicans:

72% approve
14% disapprove
14% don't know

This is in PA, which is one of the whiter states.

Approval is likely much lower in states like GA.

[pppolitics]

Not a genocide

I guess that "ethnic cleansing" is the more acceptable term.

[Vosem]

It is very likely that the fundamental reason for Biden's Israel policy is that it is winning him votes. This poll asks about Fetterman, but come on. Note the crosstab for 'Democrats', and note that Quinnipiac isn't really a very strong poll for the Israeli campaign (relative to, like, YouGov).

I highly doubt that Republicans who "approve" of what he is doing with Israel are going to vote for him.

It increases approval (and favorability!) from self-identified Democrats.

Also, like, there's a primary going on right now and Biden's main competitor (on track for like a quarter of the vote in the primary tonight, so not close but not nothing) is running on the Democratic Party not being pro-Israel enough. The reverse view is so fringey that they failed to recruit anyone to run at all. Biden simply has way more to fear from not being seen as sufficiently strident.

Are you voting for Biden?

Do only Biden voters get to explain Biden voters' motivations? Bizarre question.

The poll that you provided shows that Democrats and Independents disapprove of Israel's conduct.

Republicans approve of Israel's conduct, but won't vote for Biden anyway. YOU ARE A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF THAT.

This poll has Democrats agreeing 20/16 that Fetterman's support of Israel, which is much more strident than Biden's, make them think more favorably of him.

There are many polls showing that those paying close attention to the war tend to support Israel, while those paying less attention to what's going on, who don't know about the methods used, are likelier to support Gaza. This is also true among Democrats; most don't care, but among those who do, there are significantly more who are pro-Israel who are upset with Biden's response. This is why the challenge to him within the party is coming from a pro-Israel direction.

If there were so many people upset with Biden who wanted him to try to deescalate the conflict, why wouldn't they run a candidate? The answer must be that such people basically don't really exist (eg, it's been widely reported that campus protests for Palestine are predominantly attended by foreign students), so such a candidate could not be found. Americans who care -- including Democrats who care* -- want the Gaza campaign to continue.

*And, per some polls, including young Democrats who care!

1. Fetterman isn't running for president.

2. Just because they "express support" for Israel doesn't mean that they approve of Israel's conduct.

1. Sure, but his positions are a lot more extreme than Biden's.

2. What else would it mean? In particular, Israel's actions in this conflict are consistent with their actions in similar conflicts for several decades. It's not some out-of-the-blue thing.

Really? Does he approve of Biden bypassing Congress to send more weapons to Israel and ignore the Leahy Law?

Since when has Israel been indiscriminately dropping unguided 2000lb bombs on densely populated areas?

Yes, he does. In this article he says so explicitly. He literally supports mocking and laughing at pro-Palestinian protesters, and polls show that this makes Democrats like him more, because that's just where the American public is. The debate isn't about whether or not to support Israel, or even about whether or not to send them military aid (although there is a debate about how much), but about whether pro-Palestinian sentiment is a legitimate part of the discourse which should be respected, or if pro-Palestinian protesters should simply be deported, a position supported by every Republican presidential candidate.

Israel bombed Lebanon in 2006, successfully militarily crippling Hezbollah, and 1982, forcing the PLO out of Lebanon. Israel has also previously bombed Gaza in 2008-2009, 2012, 2014, and 2021. Each time, it gradually gained more and more support from the international community, including other Arab nations, as the understanding that the demands of the Palestinian political parties are unjust, unrealistic, and detrimental to everyone on Earth grew. All of this culminated with the current 2023-2024 conflict.

[pppolitics]

It is very likely that the fundamental reason for Biden's Israel policy is that it is winning him votes. This poll asks about Fetterman, but come on. Note the crosstab for 'Democrats', and note that Quinnipiac isn't really a very strong poll for the Israeli campaign (relative to, like, YouGov).

I highly doubt that Republicans who "approve" of what he is doing with Israel are going to vote for him.

It increases approval (and favorability!) from self-identified Democrats.

Also, like, there's a primary going on right now and Biden's main competitor (on track for like a quarter of the vote in the primary tonight, so not close but not nothing) is running on the Democratic Party not being pro-Israel enough. The reverse view is so fringey that they failed to recruit anyone to run at all. Biden simply has way more to fear from not being seen as sufficiently strident.

Are you voting for Biden?

Do only Biden voters get to explain Biden voters' motivations? Bizarre question.

The poll that you provided shows that Democrats and Independents disapprove of Israel's conduct.

Republicans approve of Israel's conduct, but won't vote for Biden anyway. YOU ARE A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF THAT.

This poll has Democrats agreeing 20/16 that Fetterman's support of Israel, which is much more strident than Biden's, make them think more favorably of him.

There are many polls showing that those paying close attention to the war tend to support Israel, while those paying less attention to what's going on, who don't know about the methods used, are likelier to support Gaza. This is also true among Democrats; most don't care, but among those who do, there are significantly more who are pro-Israel who are upset with Biden's response. This is why the challenge to him within the party is coming from a pro-Israel direction.

If there were so many people upset with Biden who wanted him to try to deescalate the conflict, why wouldn't they run a candidate? The answer must be that such people basically don't really exist (eg, it's been widely reported that campus protests for Palestine are predominantly attended by foreign students), so such a candidate could not be found. Americans who care -- including Democrats who care* -- want the Gaza campaign to continue.

*And, per some polls, including young Democrats who care!

1. Fetterman isn't running for president.

2. Just because they "express support" for Israel doesn't mean that they approve of Israel's conduct.

1. Sure, but his positions are a lot more extreme than Biden's.

2. What else would it mean? In particular, Israel's actions in this conflict are consistent with their actions in similar conflicts for several decades. It's not some out-of-the-blue thing.

Really? Does he approve of Biden bypassing Congress to send more weapons to Israel and ignore the Leahy Law?

Since when has Israel been indiscriminately dropping unguided 2000lb bombs on densely populated areas?

Yes, he does. In this article he says so explicitly. He literally supports mocking and laughing at pro-Palestinian protesters, and polls show that this makes Democrats like him more, because that's just where the American public is. The debate isn't about whether or not to support Israel, or even about whether or not to send them military aid (although there is a debate about how much), but about whether pro-Palestinian sentiment is a legitimate part of the discourse which should be respected, or if pro-Palestinian protesters should simply be deported, a position supported by every Republican presidential candidate.

Israel bombed Lebanon in 2006, successfully militarily crippling Hezbollah, and 1982, forcing the PLO out of Lebanon. Israel has also previously bombed Gaza in 2008-2009, 2012, 2014, and 2021. Each time, it gradually gained more and more support from the international community, including other Arab nations, as the understanding that the demands of the Palestinian political parties are unjust, unrealistic, and detrimental to everyone on Earth grew. All of this culminated with the current 2023-2024 conflict.

This is where self-identified Democrats are today:



Now imagine in 4 years (supposedly when Fetterman runs for president)

Fetterman is making the wrong bet.

Or maybe he's banking big on AIPAC's money.

Regardless, I want to stop talking about Fetterman.

Let's get back on topic about the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

[Devils30]

Don't bother responding to this guy (ppp), it's probably his 223rd post on this subject and the thread won't go anywhere the prior 222 did not. Something about Israel just triggers him to a point he can't contain himself.

[pppolitics]

Don't bother responding to this guy, it's probably his 223rd post on this subject and the thread won't go anywhere the prior 222 did not.

It is shocking how many users here (you and many others) support the genocide of the Palestinians.

Gaza has the same population density as London.

Imagine unguided 2000 lb bombs being dropped indiscriminately all over London.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Don't bother responding to this guy (ppp), it's probably his 223rd post on this subject and the thread won't go anywhere the prior 222 did not. Something about Israel just triggers him to a point he can't contain himself.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=375046.msg9360294#msg9360294

[Devils30]

Don't bother responding to this guy, it's probably his 223rd post on this subject and the thread won't go anywhere the prior 222 did not.

It is shocking how many users here (you and many others) support the genocide of the Palestinians.

Gaza has the same population density as London.

Imagine unguided 2000 lb bombs being dropped indiscriminately all over London.

Yeah, and can you remind about the time people in London invaded a neighboring country and slaughtered over 1,000 people? Call the Israeli response excessive but this didn’t happen out of nowhere.

[pppolitics]

Don't bother responding to this guy, it's probably his 223rd post on this subject and the thread won't go anywhere the prior 222 did not.

It is shocking how many users here (you and many others) support the genocide of the Palestinians.

Gaza has the same population density as London.

Imagine unguided 2000 lb bombs being dropped indiscriminately all over London.

Yeah, and can you remind about the time people in London invaded a neighboring country and slaughtered over 1,000 people? Call the Israeli response excessive but this didn’t happen out of nowhere.

Palestinians make up >95% of the casualties



Israel was Palestinian land anyway.

Israel was made possible by forcing the Palestinians from their land (Nakba)

[Vosem]

Don't bother responding to this guy, it's probably his 223rd post on this subject and the thread won't go anywhere the prior 222 did not.

It is shocking how many users here (you and many others) support the genocide of the Palestinians.

Gaza has the same population density as London.

Imagine unguided 2000 lb bombs being dropped indiscriminately all over London.

Yeah, and can you remind about the time people in London invaded a neighboring country and slaughtered over 1,000 people? Call the Israeli response excessive but this didn’t happen out of nowhere.

Palestinians make up >95% of the casualties

Are you saying you would support Israel less if they were less careful with their own troops? (Or if Hamas was more effective?)

Israel was made possible by forcing the Palestinians from their land (Nakba)

Wait, so did Israel cause it or was Israel made possible by it? The timing suggested by this sentence feels like it doesn't line up with the rest of your posts on the topic.

[pppolitics]

Are you saying you would support Israel less if they were less careful with their own troops? (Or if Hamas was more effective?)

What?

Wait, so did Israel cause it or was Israel made possible by it? The timing suggested by this sentence feels like it doesn't line up with the rest of your posts on the topic.

We all know that Nakba is what allows Israel to be possible today.

Nakba is Israel's original sin.

[Devils30]

Are you saying you would support Israel less if they were less careful with their own troops? (Or if Hamas was more effective?)

What?

Wait, so did Israel cause it or was Israel made possible by it? The timing suggested by this sentence feels like it doesn't line up with the rest of your posts on the topic.

We all know that Nakba is what allows Israel to be possible today.

Nakba is Israel's original sin.

And the US committed plenty of sins. Does that mean we are going to give the country over to native tribes? Or do we seek a solution designed to alleviate as many problems as possible?

[pppolitics]

Are you saying you would support Israel less if they were less careful with their own troops? (Or if Hamas was more effective?)

What?

Wait, so did Israel cause it or was Israel made possible by it? The timing suggested by this sentence feels like it doesn't line up with the rest of your posts on the topic.

We all know that Nakba is what allows Israel to be possible today.

Nakba is Israel's original sin.

And the US committed plenty of sins. Does that mean we are going to give the country over to native tribes? Or do we seek a solution designed to alleviate as many problems as possible?

As far as I am aware, Native Americans are given American citizenship and allowed to live in the US.

When are the displaced Palestinians going to be given Israeli citizenship and allowed to move back to Israel?

[Devils30]

Are you saying you would support Israel less if they were less careful with their own troops? (Or if Hamas was more effective?)

What?

Wait, so did Israel cause it or was Israel made possible by it? The timing suggested by this sentence feels like it doesn't line up with the rest of your posts on the topic.

We all know that Nakba is what allows Israel to be possible today.

Nakba is Israel's original sin.

And the US committed plenty of sins. Does that mean we are going to give the country over to native tribes? Or do we seek a solution designed to alleviate as many problems as possible?

As far as I am aware, Native Americans are given American citizenship and allowed to live in the US.

When are the displaced Palestinians going to be given Israeli citizenship and allowed to move back to Israel?

This is the 2024 election thread. I am done with your crap. I apologize for even responding to his garbage.

[pppolitics]

Are you saying you would support Israel less if they were less careful with their own troops? (Or if Hamas was more effective?)

What?

Wait, so did Israel cause it or was Israel made possible by it? The timing suggested by this sentence feels like it doesn't line up with the rest of your posts on the topic.

We all know that Nakba is what allows Israel to be possible today.

Nakba is Israel's original sin.

And the US committed plenty of sins. Does that mean we are going to give the country over to native tribes? Or do we seek a solution designed to alleviate as many problems as possible?

As far as I am aware, Native Americans are given American citizenship and allowed to live in the US.

When are the displaced Palestinians going to be given Israeli citizenship and allowed to move back to Israel?

This is the 2024 election thread. I am done with your crap. I apologize for even responding to his garbage.

You are the one dragging this thread off-topic.

[Vosem]

Are you saying you would support Israel less if they were less careful with their own troops? (Or if Hamas was more effective?)

What?

You wrote that >95% of the casualties in the current conflict are Palestinian as one of the problems with the conflict. Are you calling for more non-Palestinians to die in the conflict?

Wait, so did Israel cause it or was Israel made possible by it? The timing suggested by this sentence feels like it doesn't line up with the rest of your posts on the topic.

We all know that Nakba is what allows Israel to be possible today.

Nakba is Israel's original sin.

Right, but this makes no sense because they didn't cause it. (Your own post was funny because it inadvertently implied that the Nakba happened before Israel was established, which for the most part is not true as the Arab invasions happened after the Declaration of Independence.)

[First1There]

PPPolitics, I think you just like the sound of the word genocide.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden probably wins more votes/loses less by siding with Israel rather than Palestine, so that's likely what's going on.

[pppolitics]

Right, but this makes no sense because they didn't cause it. (Your own post was funny because it inadvertently implied that the Nakba happened before Israel was established, which for the most part is not true as the Arab invasions happened after the Declaration of Independence.)

Just to be clear, Israel (as it exists today) couldn't exist without Nakba.

[Vosem]

Right, but this makes no sense because they didn't cause it. (Your own post was funny because it inadvertently implied that the Nakba happened before Israel was established, which for the most part is not true as the Arab invasions happened after the Declaration of Independence.)

Just to be clear, Israel (as it exists today) couldn't exist without Nakba.

This is known in chaos theory as the butterfly effect.

[pppolitics]

Biden probably wins more votes/loses less by siding with Israel rather than Palestine, so that's likely what's going on.

Hardly anyone expects him to side with the Palestinians, but he should have kept a more impartial stance.

[pppolitics]

Are you saying you would support Israel less if they were less careful with their own troops? (Or if Hamas was more effective?)

What?

You wrote that >95% of the casualties in the current conflict are Palestinian as one of the problems with the conflict. Are you calling for more non-Palestinians to die in the conflict?

No, I call for fewer Palestinian deaths.

Indiscriminate bombing is itself a war crime.

[pppolitics]

More than one-third of Americans believe Israel is committing genocide, poll shows

More than one in three Americans believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians, a poll published on Wednesday has found.

According to the Economist/YouGov poll, roughly equal numbers of adults believe Israel’s military campaign against Palestinians, which is estimated to have killed more than 25,000 people since 7 October, amounts to genocide: 35% say it is, 36% say it isn’t, with 29% undecided.

Among younger Americans, and along political lines, divisions are more prominent. Almost half of those surveyed aged 18-29, 49%, say Israel is committing genocide, with 24% disagreeing and 27% uncertain.

The figures are broadly similar for registered Democrats, who believe 49%-21% in the genocide characterization, while 30% are undecided. Republicans are far more supportive of Israel’s actions, with 57% of respondents saying there is no genocide, only 18% saying there is, and exactly one-quarter unsure.

[…]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/24/americans-believe-israel-committing-genocide-poll

[MT Treasurer]

While terminally online Biden supporters are debating semantics and appropriate usage of the term "genocide," most normal people their age are seeing gruesome images on their social media feed which speak for themselves, spark moral indignation in most normal human beings, and are far more powerful than any predictable rhetorical counter to them. He's losing big by enabling and actively prolonging this genocide/ethnic cleansing.

[Vosem]

More than one-third of Americans believe Israel is committing genocide, poll shows

More than one in three Americans believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians, a poll published on Wednesday has found.

According to the Economist/YouGov poll, roughly equal numbers of adults believe Israel’s military campaign against Palestinians, which is estimated to have killed more than 25,000 people since 7 October, amounts to genocide: 35% say it is, 36% say it isn’t, with 29% undecided.

Among younger Americans, and along political lines, divisions are more prominent. Almost half of those surveyed aged 18-29, 49%, say Israel is committing genocide, with 24% disagreeing and 27% uncertain.

The figures are broadly similar for registered Democrats, who believe 49%-21% in the genocide characterization, while 30% are undecided. Republicans are far more supportive of Israel’s actions, with 57% of respondents saying there is no genocide, only 18% saying there is, and exactly one-quarter unsure.

[…]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/24/americans-believe-israel-committing-genocide-poll

This poll is fascinating overall; it shows a higher percentage of Americans believe that the policies of the Gaza government constitute a genocide of Israelis (39%) than the percentage who believe that the policies of the Israeli government constitute a genocide of Gazans (34%).* Notably, in both cases being younger correlates with characterizing the events as 'genocide', which suggests to me that younger Americans simply have a lower standard for what 'genocide' is.

*Both of these numbers are among US adult citizens -- in past YouGov surveys shifting to a screen of "registered voters" has tended to produce a significantly more pro-Israel result pattern. The numbers quoted are from a different poll conducted December 16-18, so if that is too old you can discount it, but that poll had American adults sympathizing with Israel over the Palestinians 38/12, but registered voters doing so 44/13. Among American adults, there is 64/17 agreement that helping Israel is very or somewhat important (as opposed to not too important, or not important), but that jumps to 70/17 among registered voters.

(My moderately confident guess, because supporting Israel is always and everywhere associated with paying more attention to news coverage, is that a likely voter screen would make those numbers even more favorable, but I cannot prove this by citing polling and it is a guess that would be convenient for my political faction, so you can discount it if you so choose.)

While terminally online Biden supporters are debating semantics and appropriate usage of the term "genocide," most normal people their age are seeing gruesome images on their social media feed which speak for themselves, spark moral indignation in most normal human beings, and are far more powerful than any predictable rhetorical counter to them. He's losing big by enabling and actively prolonging this genocide/ethnic cleansing.

This poll shows a larger fraction of Americans subscribing to the opposite narrative (that not enabling Israel is preventing genocide victims from fighting back).