🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[King of Kensington]

Steve Paikin on the St. Paul's by-election: https://www.tvo.org/article/this-upcoming-toronto-byelection-could-be-momentous

[adma]

The Ontario NDP has sort of maxed out the "base" of inner cities/labor/Indigenous.  But it is weak in the GTA suburbs where elections are won.  The Liberals are the stronger party in exactly the areas where the NDP needs to win, so they can't credibly say "if you want to defeat the PCs, you have to vote NDP" in these ridings.

In 1990, the NDP winning map is something that can't be emulated today.  The NDP didn't do very well in the "905" belt.  The "905" didn't have the significance it did now (in fact the 905 area code didn't come into effect until the early 1990s - it was under Harris that the 905 became politically significant).
And it won all these rural areas often due to vote-splitting on the right.

I believe the NDP did quite well in the 905 belt in the 1990 election.

Well, as part of a generic univeral wave of higher/competitive shares.  But they only won seats covering Durham Region/NE York Region and the N part of Halton Region.  Nothing in Peel whatsoever (Mississauga, Brampton, Caledon), nothing in York Region other than the aforementioned NE...

Oh yeah, you're right. They swept Durham. I incorrectly thought that a couple of them were from Mississauga/Brampton.

Had the ridings been configured differently, they might have snagged a Brampton seat (back then there was simply Brampton North and Brampton South--but if the Bramptons were divided E/W they'd have likely gotten the Bramalea portion to the E)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

St. Paul's can perhaps be divided into 4 main "zones":  progressive Hillcrest-Humewood, heavily Jewish Forest Hill-Cedarvale, establishmentarian Deer Park-Casa Loma and Yonge-Eglinton (aka "Young and Eligible").

It's worth pointing out that Forest Hill is basically where the top 1% of the top 1% live, and even when Tories don't do particularly well with Jewish voters relative to other groups (CPC 2019, PCPO 2018 and 2022), they can still count on the wealthiest parts of Forest Hill to come out for them. I'd imagine even more so now given the recent Capital gains tax hike.

But those 4 "zones" you describe are basically why Liberals are so damn resilient here, they've gotten solid support from all four of those blocs in recent elections. Tories typically don't get much support in Hillcrest/Humewood or Yonge and Eg, while the NDP don't get much support in Deer Park/Casa Loma, let alone Forest Hill.

Given the overall trends, I think it's pretty safe to say that CPC will dominate Cedarvale and Forest Hill, while Deer Park/Casa Loma is the most likely to remain solidly Liberal. But Hillcrest/Humewood and Yonge and Eg have a lot of younger voters, and this is a cohort that's deserting the Liberals, to the benefit of both NDP and Tories. One would assume that big city millennials are more likely to switch LPC->NDP, which would be the opening for a Jill Andrew coalition. But even still, Poilievre polls much better with young voters than Ford, so young voters deserting the Liberals may not be as solid for the NDP as they've been provincially.

Forest Hill is only about a tenth of the riding.  Meanwhile 60% live in either the Hillcrest-Humewood-Oakwood zone in the west or Davisville in the east.

Right, I think I overestimated its significance. It takes up a good chunk of the riding, but obviously Forest Hill is very low density.

[adma]

St. Paul's can perhaps be divided into 4 main "zones":  progressive Hillcrest-Humewood, heavily Jewish Forest Hill-Cedarvale, establishmentarian Deer Park-Casa Loma and Yonge-Eglinton (aka "Young and Eligible").

It's worth pointing out that Forest Hill is basically where the top 1% of the top 1% live, and even when Tories don't do particularly well with Jewish voters relative to other groups (CPC 2019, PCPO 2018 and 2022), they can still count on the wealthiest parts of Forest Hill to come out for them. I'd imagine even more so now given the recent Capital gains tax hike.

But those 4 "zones" you describe are basically why Liberals are so damn resilient here, they've gotten solid support from all four of those blocs in recent elections. Tories typically don't get much support in Hillcrest/Humewood or Yonge and Eg, while the NDP don't get much support in Deer Park/Casa Loma, let alone Forest Hill.

Given the overall trends, I think it's pretty safe to say that CPC will dominate Cedarvale and Forest Hill, while Deer Park/Casa Loma is the most likely to remain solidly Liberal. But Hillcrest/Humewood and Yonge and Eg have a lot of younger voters, and this is a cohort that's deserting the Liberals, to the benefit of both NDP and Tories. One would assume that big city millennials are more likely to switch LPC->NDP, which would be the opening for a Jill Andrew coalition. But even still, Poilievre polls much better with young voters than Ford, so young voters deserting the Liberals may not be as solid for the NDP as they've been provincially.

Forest Hill is only about a tenth of the riding.  Meanwhile 60% live in either the Hillcrest-Humewood-Oakwood zone in the west or Davisville in the east.

Right, I think I overestimated its significance. It takes up a good chunk of the riding, but obviously Forest Hill is very low density.

Which also explains how the Tories wound up 3rd twice in a row provincially.  However, if there still is a "promiscuous conservative" vote (i.e. Blue Liberals who actually aren't currently averse to a PP vote-park), virtually everything btw/Bathurst & Yonge is in play, from Chaplin Estates to Cottingham (as well as, of course, Cedarvale W of Bathurst, where the "Israel issue" looms largest).  Plus, given the present climate, I don't know how many pledged Con voters are swayable back into the Lib camp--whereas the NDP *can* be swayable, but whether in sufficient amounts, who knows...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

St. Paul's can perhaps be divided into 4 main "zones":  progressive Hillcrest-Humewood, heavily Jewish Forest Hill-Cedarvale, establishmentarian Deer Park-Casa Loma and Yonge-Eglinton (aka "Young and Eligible").

It's worth pointing out that Forest Hill is basically where the top 1% of the top 1% live, and even when Tories don't do particularly well with Jewish voters relative to other groups (CPC 2019, PCPO 2018 and 2022), they can still count on the wealthiest parts of Forest Hill to come out for them. I'd imagine even more so now given the recent Capital gains tax hike.

But those 4 "zones" you describe are basically why Liberals are so damn resilient here, they've gotten solid support from all four of those blocs in recent elections. Tories typically don't get much support in Hillcrest/Humewood or Yonge and Eg, while the NDP don't get much support in Deer Park/Casa Loma, let alone Forest Hill.

Given the overall trends, I think it's pretty safe to say that CPC will dominate Cedarvale and Forest Hill, while Deer Park/Casa Loma is the most likely to remain solidly Liberal. But Hillcrest/Humewood and Yonge and Eg have a lot of younger voters, and this is a cohort that's deserting the Liberals, to the benefit of both NDP and Tories. One would assume that big city millennials are more likely to switch LPC->NDP, which would be the opening for a Jill Andrew coalition. But even still, Poilievre polls much better with young voters than Ford, so young voters deserting the Liberals may not be as solid for the NDP as they've been provincially.

Forest Hill is only about a tenth of the riding.  Meanwhile 60% live in either the Hillcrest-Humewood-Oakwood zone in the west or Davisville in the east.

Right, I think I overestimated its significance. It takes up a good chunk of the riding, but obviously Forest Hill is very low density.

Which also explains how the Tories wound up 3rd twice in a row provincially.  However, if there still is a "promiscuous conservative" vote (i.e. Blue Liberals who actually aren't currently averse to a PP vote-park), virtually everything btw/Bathurst & Yonge is in play, from Chaplin Estates to Cottingham (as well as, of course, Cedarvale W of Bathurst, where the "Israel issue" looms largest).  Plus, given the present climate, I don't know how many pledged Con voters are swayable back into the Lib camp--whereas the NDP *can* be swayable, but whether in sufficient amounts, who knows...

Indeed, there's a lot of unknowns wrt this byelection because it's a fairly unique riding, and it's being framed in the media as a referendum on Trudeau, which could play a big role in local voters' minds. Which makes it all the more puzzling that, despite all the importance being placed on this byelection, we've yet to see any polls.

[King of Kensington]

Indeed, there's a lot of unknowns wrt this byelection because it's a fairly unique riding, and it's being framed in the media as a referendum on Trudeau, which could play a big role in local voters' minds. Which makes it all the more puzzling that, despite all the importance being placed on this byelection, we've yet to see any polls.

Well, we'll be getting the only "poll" that matters in a few days.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals did get a "scare" in Van Quadra in the 2008 by-election (eking out a 100 vote victory), which is the most "establishmentarian" riding in Vancouver.  But then it went on to be one of their 34 holdouts in the Ignatieff debacle of 2011.

[DL]

Indeed, there's a lot of unknowns wrt this byelection because it's a fairly unique riding, and it's being framed in the media as a referendum on Trudeau, which could play a big role in local voters' minds. Which makes it all the more puzzling that, despite all the importance being placed on this byelection, we've yet to see any polls.

Well, we'll be getting the only "poll" that matters in a few days.

It has become impossible to conduct riding polls. Most people have mobile phones which cannot be linked to a geographic location. the days of quick and dirty IVR polls of ridings are OVER.

[adma]

Indeed, there's a lot of unknowns wrt this byelection because it's a fairly unique riding, and it's being framed in the media as a referendum on Trudeau, which could play a big role in local voters' minds. Which makes it all the more puzzling that, despite all the importance being placed on this byelection, we've yet to see any polls.

Well, we'll be getting the only "poll" that matters in a few days.

It has become impossible to conduct riding polls. Most people have mobile phones which cannot be linked to a geographic location. the days of quick and dirty IVR polls of ridings are OVER.

Does even Mainstreet bother anymore?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Randall Garrison is considering retiring before the election again.
https://twitter.com/IslandSocTrends/status/1804301916824047796

[King of Kensington]

Nonetheless, the Conservatives are still unlikely to win in Toronto-St. Paul’s. That’s because byelections don’t often change the fundamental character of an electoral district.

The fact remains that Toronto-St. Paul’s, as with most of the city south of Eglinton Ave., is disproportionately made up of the kind of voters that are least likely to support the Conservatives: highly educated and socially progressive while generally more affluent. With a continually weak NDP and Green Party, the Conservatives are unlikely to see a vote split on the centre-left that they’d need to succeed.

https://theconversation.com/a-byelection-to-watch-what-the-toronto-st-pauls-vote-means-for-justin-trudeau-231746

[Hatman 🍁]

Indeed, there's a lot of unknowns wrt this byelection because it's a fairly unique riding, and it's being framed in the media as a referendum on Trudeau, which could play a big role in local voters' minds. Which makes it all the more puzzling that, despite all the importance being placed on this byelection, we've yet to see any polls.

Well, we'll be getting the only "poll" that matters in a few days.

It has become impossible to conduct riding polls. Most people have mobile phones which cannot be linked to a geographic location. the days of quick and dirty IVR polls of ridings are OVER.

Yeah, this is the biggest reason.

There are ways of polling it of course, but too expensive for a company to do without the backing of a media organization or a third party (with the intention of publicizing).

I suspect a lot of the chatter about people thinking the Tories might pick up the riding might be from people privy to internal polling done with poor polling methodologies. Any cheap poll of the riding would mostly consist of landlines in Forest Hill and other established neighbourhoods. Hmm, I wonder how they're going to vote?

[King of Kensington]

Political observers also like dramatic outcomes, so "the by-election that put an end to Justin Trudeau's reign" is more exciting than "Liberal hold with a reduced but fairly comfortable margin." 

[brucejoel99]

Shannon Philips the Alberta NDP former cabinet minister and current MLA for Lethbridge West is resigning her seat on July 1. Could be an opportunity for Naheed Nenshi to get a seat in a byelection

https://twitter.com/JSJamato/status/1804630731940844012

[adma]

I suspect a lot of the chatter about people thinking the Tories might pick up the riding might be from people privy to internal polling done with poor polling methodologies. Any cheap poll of the riding would mostly consist of landlines in Forest Hill and other established neighbourhoods. Hmm, I wonder how they're going to vote?

Seriously; I'm not going by conventional wisdom and assuming the Libs have this in the bag--though the potential vibe I have might be more "Harris '95" than "Ford '18".  Plus, a secret weapon Team Skippy might have is the post-land-line crowd: Y&E's "Condo Millennials" or the diverse "starters" in Oakwood Village--at least, enough of *those* within the CPC big tent to potentially tip the whole shebang their way.  (That is, *if* they turn out.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's cruel that the most potentially consequential byelection of this parliament just happens to be scheduled on the same night as game 7 of the Stanley Cup final. But interestingly, the last time the Conservatives won St. Paul's was in 1988, when the Oilers lifted the Stanley Cup.

In other words, Conservative fortunes in this riding may be tied to the fortunes of an Alberta-based team named "oilers". Fitting.

[Oryxslayer]

Guess it's up to me since the regulars are off watching hockey:

3/192 Polls

Don Stewart (Con) - 111, 45.1%
Leslie Church (Lib) - 106, 43.1%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 21, 8.5%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 5, 2%

Others - 1, 0.4%

Longest Ballot Indies - 2, 0.8%

[adma]

It took a while for the results to start coming in.

Now it's 5 polls, 243-183-38-8 + the flotsam for the Libs.

And now *6* polls, and the NDP's spurted:

Liberal   Leslie Church   291   46.9 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   206   33.2 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   90   14.5 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   13   2.1 %

Those early single-digit NDP numbers and Lib in the lead made me think it boded well for the Libs--unless there's some big Cons upcoming, this *might* bear out my hunch...

(Which also means that single new poll went 52-48-23 NDP-Lib-Con--so my hunch of the NDP sleeper factor wasn't off base.  FYI: there were no NDP polls *at all* in either '15, '19, or '21.)

[Oryxslayer]

6/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 291, 46.9%
Don Stewart (Con) - 206, 33.2%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 90, 14.5%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 13, 2.1%

Others - 7, 1.1%

Longest Ballot Indies - 13, 2.1%

[adma]

9 polls re-tightening, NDP falling again:

iberal   Leslie Church   436   45.1 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   373   38.6 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   102   10.6 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   22   2.3 %

(latest batch of 3: 167-145-12 for the Cons--so if it's *that* tight for the Cons in a batch where the NDP are sub-4%, well...)

[King of Kensington]

So more of a Michael Bryant '99-type result than anything else so far.

[Oryxslayer]

12/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 643, 46.2%
Don Stewart (Con) - 522, 37.5%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 141, 10.5%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 47, 3.4%

Others - 12, 0.8%

Longest Ballot Indies - 28, 1.6%

[adma]

12 polls:

Liberal   Leslie Church   643   46.2 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   522   37.5 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   141   10.1 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   47   3.4 %

Latest batch: 207/149/39/25 (a bit of a Green spurt: would this be in one of those Casa Loma/South Hill/Rathnelly-type places?)

Again, given that overperforming NDP poll, I wouldn't be surprised if what's coming in so far is generically "Con-favourable".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Steve Paikin on the St. Paul's by-election: https://www.tvo.org/article/this-upcoming-toronto-byelection-could-be-momentous

Sidenote, I'm reminded a bit of the PC pickup in Eboticoke-Lakeshore in a 2013 by-election, only for the PCs to horridly flop in the GTA I think less than half a year later?
Not that we can just presume there's a massive Liberal win on the cards six or seven months from now, but narratives can fail to take into account the whole picture...that is just one example.

[adma]

17 polls:

Liberal   Leslie Church   901   46.0 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   707   36.1 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   213   10.9 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   75   3.8 %

Latest batch: 258/185/72/28: another above-the-norm Green batch, and NDP performing a bit better: might this be a bit more Casa Loma-ish?

ETA: and now an 18th poll that apparently went 50-48 CPC, w/zero NDP and a single Green--if it's a zero-vote NDP and *that* tight, then more unpromising-for-the-Cons (though their best result federally/provincially this century might count as "moral victory"--or even if they finish w/a higher share than Jill Andrew)