🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[Hatman 🍁]

New year, new thread.

Only one by-election with a confirmed date coming up:
*Jan 29: Conception Bay East–Bell Island (provincial, NL)

There are also vacant seats in:
Durham, ON (federal)
Toronto-St. Paul's, ON (federal)
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, ON (provincial)
Borden-Kinkora, PEI (provincial)

Mississauga, mayor (following the resignation of Bonnie Crombie who is the new Ontario Liberal leader)
Kitchener, Ward 10 (following the election of Aislinn Clancy to provincial parliament)

[mileslunn]

My thoughts on following:

Conception Bay East-Bell Island: PCs probably hold this

Durham: Likely Tory win but shifts will be interesting as to date by-elections have shown Liberals doing much better than polls would suggest and Tories doing worse so be interesting if this trend continues or not.

Toronto-St. Paul's: Likely Liberal hold as this is a quintessential Liberal riding as too wealthy for NDP, too educated and urban for Tories.  If Liberals lose here, then likely risk of falling to third place.

Lambton-Kent-Middlesex: Likely stays PC but with low turnout always possible for a surprise

Borden-Kinkora: Likely a safe PC but local candidates matter more here.

[MaxQue]

David Lametti, former Justice minister of Canada and current Liberal MP for LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will resign on January 31st, to return to legal practice.

He says he still doesn't know why he was fired last summer and says that any delays in appointing judges are not up to him, but to the Prime Minister office, who took way too long to approve his picks.

[VPH]

It's wild to me that Jamil Jivani is a buddy of JD Vance's.

[adma]

David Lametti, former Justice minister of Canada and current Liberal MP for LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will resign on January 31st, to return to legal practice.

He says he still doesn't know why he was fired last summer and says that any delays in appointing judges are not up to him, but to the Prime Minister office, who took way too long to approve his picks.

A byelection would most likely be a Lib coronation; but in light of provincial QS results and everything, the NDP *could* be worth monitoring as a sleeper factor, unless Jonathan Pedneault gives it another Green run and monkeywrenches things...

[MaxQue]

And now, Parm Gill, Ontario Minister for Red Tape Reduction and PC MPP for Milton is also resigning as both minister and MPP to return to federal politics (he was MP for Brampton-Springdale from 2011 to 2015).

[mileslunn]

Lametti's riding easy Liberal hold.  I think Milton with how close it was last provincial election will go OLP but PCs still have a chance if they can get right candidate, but OLP is definitely favourites.

[MaxQue]

David Lametti, former Justice minister of Canada and current Liberal MP for LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will resign on January 31st, to return to legal practice.

He says he still doesn't know why he was fired last summer and says that any delays in appointing judges are not up to him, but to the Prime Minister office, who took way too long to approve his picks.

A byelection would most likely be a Lib coronation; but in light of provincial QS results and everything, the NDP *could* be worth monitoring as a sleeper factor, unless Jonathan Pedneault gives it another Green run and monkeywrenches things...

Verdun is a great fit for QS and the NDP, but definitively not LaSalle.

[DL]

And now, Parm Gill, Ontario Minister for Red Tape Reduction and PC MPP for Milton is also resigning as both minister and MPP to return to federal politics (he was MP for Brampton-Springdale from 2011 to 2015).

Maybe Bonnie Crombie might run here?

[adma]

And now, Parm Gill, Ontario Minister for Red Tape Reduction and PC MPP for Milton is also resigning as both minister and MPP to return to federal politics (he was MP for Brampton-Springdale from 2011 to 2015).

Maybe Bonnie Crombie might run here?

It practically seems like a readymade open door for her, in light of the Libs coming within 5 points in '22.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

And now, Parm Gill, Ontario Minister for Red Tape Reduction and PC MPP for Milton is also resigning as both minister and MPP to return to federal politics (he was MP for Brampton-Springdale from 2011 to 2015).

Maybe Bonnie Crombie might run here?

Lisa Raitt might run for the Conservatives provincially.

From Ottawa Playbook
— The counter-counter spin: But Global’s COLIN D'MELLO and ISAAC CALLAN report sources gave them a name that might replace him: former federal MP LISA RAITT, said to be seeking a return to politics.

[Hatman 🍁]

Raitt vs. Crombie would be fun.

David Lametti, former Justice minister of Canada and current Liberal MP for LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will resign on January 31st, to return to legal practice.

He says he still doesn't know why he was fired last summer and says that any delays in appointing judges are not up to him, but to the Prime Minister office, who took way too long to approve his picks.

A byelection would most likely be a Lib coronation; but in light of provincial QS results and everything, the NDP *could* be worth monitoring as a sleeper factor, unless Jonathan Pedneault gives it another Green run and monkeywrenches things...

Verdun is a great fit for QS and the NDP, but definitively not LaSalle.

Well, the most Liberal parts of LaSalle are in the Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle riding. Still though, they'll be fighting with the Bloc over the left of centre vote.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Raitt vs. Crombie would be fun.

David Lametti, former Justice minister of Canada and current Liberal MP for LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will resign on January 31st, to return to legal practice.

He says he still doesn't know why he was fired last summer and says that any delays in appointing judges are not up to him, but to the Prime Minister office, who took way too long to approve his picks.

A byelection would most likely be a Lib coronation; but in light of provincial QS results and everything, the NDP *could* be worth monitoring as a sleeper factor, unless Jonathan Pedneault gives it another Green run and monkeywrenches things...

Verdun is a great fit for QS and the NDP, but definitively not LaSalle.

Well, the most Liberal parts of LaSalle are in the Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle riding. Still though, they'll be fighting with the Bloc over the left of centre vote.

Not to get too far ahead, but I wonder if Bonnie Crombie would step down as Liberal leader if she lost the by-election. This has happened before, and to fairly major political parties.

I'm thinking primarily of Helen MacDonald the NDP leader in Nova Scotia from 2000-2001.
MacDonald was a defeated MLA who narrowly won a tightly contested leadership contest (in a delegated convention) and then came in third in a subsequent by-election.

According to Wiki, after the by-election, six MLAs asked to meet with her to ask for her to step down as leader, so she stepped down.

Obviously Bonnie Crombie was defeated as a Federal M.P and became a city councilor and then mayor of Mississauga while Helen MacDonald did not hold any office after being defeated, but the parallels would otherwise be quite strong (an established political party but with a diminished caucus, a leader who was not a member of the legislature, and a tightly contested leadership race.)

The one poll, from Abacus Data, that came out subsequent to her winning the leadership hasn't shown any increase in Liberal support either, although a Mainstreet Poll of a week earlier did, but that poll was immediately after the Liberal 'convention.'

Of course, it's early for her to really expect anything other than an immediate post convention bounce, but I think she won the leadership at least partly based on her being the mayor of the third biggest city in Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would think Crombie would be strongly favoured in a Milton by-election. Due to changing demos, it is a more Liberal riding than anywhere else in Halton now. But if she can't win a low hanging 905 seat like Milton (and Crombie is seen as the Liberal's best hope to win back the region), there may be calls for her removal. But, it's not like they have anyone better though.

[MaxQue]

Should NDP voters vote PC there?

[DL]

I would think Crombie would be strongly favoured in a Milton by-election. Due to changing demos, it is a more Liberal riding than anywhere else in Halton now. But if she can't win a low hanging 905 seat like Milton (and Crombie is seen as the Liberal's best hope to win back the region), there may be calls for her removal. But, it's not like they have anyone better though.

I just keep thinking that Ford's people must have tried to move hell and high water to get Parm Gill not to do this. The last thing they need is a byelection in a marginal seat. and Gill wants to run federally in an election that likely won't happen until Fall of 2025 so why would he feel the need to resign now? This byelection could have been avoided for over a year!

[adma]

I would think Crombie would be strongly favoured in a Milton by-election. Due to changing demos, it is a more Liberal riding than anywhere else in Halton now. But if she can't win a low hanging 905 seat like Milton (and Crombie is seen as the Liberal's best hope to win back the region), there may be calls for her removal. But, it's not like they have anyone better though.

I just keep thinking that Ford's people must have tried to move hell and high water to get Parm Gill not to do this. The last thing they need is a byelection in a marginal seat. and Gill wants to run federally in an election that likely won't happen until Fall of 2025 so why would he feel the need to resign now? This byelection could have been avoided for over a year!

In terms of Ontario, the more immediate leadership byelection defeat that comes to mind (if not that of a newly chosen leader) is that of John Tory in HKLB in 2009.  And even if Milton isn't Mississauga, Crombie's far less of a parachuted fish out of water here than John Tory was in HKLB.

But yeah, Lisa Raitt *would* be the Tories' best bet; or at least, project an impression thereof--though somehow, I can see her as a provincial version of Sandra Pupatello federally in '19 and '21.

[adma]

Raitt vs. Crombie would be fun.

David Lametti, former Justice minister of Canada and current Liberal MP for LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will resign on January 31st, to return to legal practice.

He says he still doesn't know why he was fired last summer and says that any delays in appointing judges are not up to him, but to the Prime Minister office, who took way too long to approve his picks.

A byelection would most likely be a Lib coronation; but in light of provincial QS results and everything, the NDP *could* be worth monitoring as a sleeper factor, unless Jonathan Pedneault gives it another Green run and monkeywrenches things...

Verdun is a great fit for QS and the NDP, but definitively not LaSalle.

Well, the most Liberal parts of LaSalle are in the Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle riding. Still though, they'll be fighting with the Bloc over the left of centre vote.

Depends on how "left of centre" the Bloc is viewed within inner Montreal anymore.  And remember that there's Ville-Emard augmenting Verdun when it comes to "left-compatibility"; so LaSalle (or, the heavy Liberal parts thereof) is really more of a rump than it may appear...

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Any ideas on who might run for the Liberals in LaSalle-Emard-Verdun?

[toaster]

I would think Crombie would be strongly favoured in a Milton by-election. Due to changing demos, it is a more Liberal riding than anywhere else in Halton now. But if she can't win a low hanging 905 seat like Milton (and Crombie is seen as the Liberal's best hope to win back the region), there may be calls for her removal. But, it's not like they have anyone better though.

The one issue that might hurt Bonnie Crombie here is Highway 413.  I think she opposed the highway if I'm not mistaken?  My guess is that people of Milton (and Brampton) support the Highway, one of the reasons I think Del Duca did so poorly in the areas around the future 413. The western GTA has not not seen any added KM of highway, despite being the highest growth areas in the country in the past few decades, so I guess we'll see if Bonnie does run here, she'll have to pick a side, and for her, I think the better choice is being for the Highway, because anyone against it from an environmental perspective is already voting for Marit (or Schreiner).

Also, many of Doug's "scandals" the issue isn't the highway, (or housing on the Greenbelt, or Service Ontarios in Staples) the scandals are the backroom deals and his friends benefiting from these changes, and I think the media isn't doing a good job representing that it's not the outcome that people are upset with, it's his "developer friends" raking in the $$$ from them.

[trebor204]

Durham called for March 4th

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/durham-byelection-called-1.7097055

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

If the Liberals come in 3rd in the Durham by-election I wonder if that would put pressure on Trudeau to step down.

[Duke of York]

If the Liberals come in 3rd in the Durham by-election I wonder if that would put pressure on Trudeau to step down.

I don't think he would step aside and even if he did who would replace him?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

If the Liberals come in 3rd in the Durham by-election I wonder if that would put pressure on Trudeau to step down.

I don't think he would step aside and even if he did who would replace him?

There are a number of capable replacements. People always say this, but, for instance, the Democrats ultimately had no trouble finding Hakeem Jeffries to take over from Nancy Pelosi.

The obvious names are:
1.Chrystia Freeland
2.Anita Anand
3.Melanie Joly
4.Francois Phillippe Champaigne
5.Marc Miller
6.Sean Fraser
7.Seamus O'Regan
8.Dominic LeBlanc

No candidate is going to be perfect because no human is perfect. Nothing personal but this 'there's nobody to replace...' is one of the tired and lazy political cliches.

[adma]

The one issue that might hurt Bonnie Crombie here is Highway 413.  I think she opposed the highway if I'm not mistaken?  My guess is that people of Milton (and Brampton) support the Highway, one of the reasons I think Del Duca did so poorly in the areas around the future 413. The western GTA has not not seen any added KM of highway, despite being the highest growth areas in the country in the past few decades, so I guess we'll see if Bonnie does run here, she'll have to pick a side, and for her, I think the better choice is being for the Highway, because anyone against it from an environmental perspective is already voting for Marit (or Schreiner).

Though keep in mind that the Libs already did much better in Milton than in any of the Brampton seats in '22 (granted, in Brampton, they were battling lingering conventional wisdom about NDP strength there)