🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[kwabbit]

Is there any way to see which polls have come in or is only the overall riding result possible?

[Oryxslayer]

20/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 1159, 45.7%
Don Stewart (Con) - 904, 5.7%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 286, 11.3%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 96, 3.8%

Others - 26, 1%

Longest Ballot Indies - 64, 2.5%

Is there any way to see which polls have come in or is only the overall riding result possible?

The data is usually avaiable after all is done, but thats obviously not the answer you wanted.

[brucejoel99]

Steve Paikin on the St. Paul's by-election: https://www.tvo.org/article/this-upcoming-toronto-byelection-could-be-momentous

I like Paikin, but, uh:

The fact is, we won’t know for more than a year — maybe more than two years — whether either of those conclusions is true. Having taken three trips to Ottawa over the past few weeks, I can say that the whole town seems obsessed with whether Trudeau will stay on to fight the next election or conclude a fourth consecutive victory is hopeless and leave. The conventional wisdom is that the next election won’t happen until the current confidence and supply agreement with the NDP expires in October 2025, but conventional wisdom is often wrong. Legally, Trudeau doesn’t have to have an election until the winter of 2026 (check your Constitution, people; governments are entitled to serve for five years).

If Trudeau truly wants to hang around to fight the next election, and if that election isn't until December 2026, do you think losing a byelection two and a half years before that, even in Toronto–St. Paul's, would convince him to quit?

The NDP's current confidence-&-supply agreement expires in June 2025, it's unclear if Singh's NDP will support another pre-election Liberal budget next year, & the fixed election date is set for October 2025: the Governor General can't dissolve Parliament on Trudeau's recommendation to call an election for later than that unless Parliament repeals the fixed date law.

[adma]

25 polls and the gap's opening...

Liberal   Leslie Church   1,552   46.2 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   1,165   34.7 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   406   12.1 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   118   3.5 %

Latest 5-poll batch: 393/261/120/22.

30 polls

Liberal   Leslie Church   1,812   45.4 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   1,367   34.2 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   539   13.5 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   137   3.4 %

Next 5-poll batch: 260/202/133/19.

And 28 indies w/zero votes.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah the NDP is out of sub-10% territory now and the Liberals hold a comfortable lead.

[Oryxslayer]

45/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 2497, 44.5%
Don Stewart (Con) - 2024, 36%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 734, 13.1%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 179, 3.2%

Others - 63, 1.2%

Longest Ballot Indies - 118, 2.1%

[adma]

45/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 2497, 44.5%
Don Stewart (Con) - 2024, 36%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 734, 13.1%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 179, 3.2%

Others - 63, 1.2%

Longest Ballot Indies - 118, 2.1%

In the previous 15-poll batch: 685/657/195/42--a good Con batch.

[adma]

50 votes

Liberal   Leslie Church   2,703   44.2 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   2,178   35.6 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   822   13.4 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   202   3.3 %

5-poll batch: 206/154/88/23.

[adma]

55 polls:
Liberal   Leslie Church   2,937   43.3 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   2,494   36.8 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   896   13.2 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   218   3.2 %

A Con batch: 316/235/74/16--thus the narrowing gap.  (But the Libs are running above '11.)

[adma]

60 polls--still narrowing.

Liberal   Leslie Church   3,217   43.1 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   2,772   37.1 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   978   13.1 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   237   3.2 %

5-poll batch: bare Lib advantage, 280-278-82-19.

[Oryxslayer]

71/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 3882, 43.1%
Don Stewart (Con) - 3335, 37%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 1143, 12.7%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 273, 3%

Others - 111, 1.2%

(Longest Ballot) Indies - 259, 2.9%

[adma]

76 polls:

Liberal   Leslie Church   4,129   43.1 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   3,533   36.8 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   1,236   12.9 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   296   3.1 %

16-poll batch: 912/761/258/59.

I'm also noticing an outside (i.e. ahead of PPC) total for indy Mario Stocco--somehow I smell a polling error here.  (The other top indy is Jonathan Schachter; if he's one of the longest-balloteers, I presume his surname is a draw among the Jewish demo)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Still 60% of polls left to report so it's too early to call, but I'd be very surprised if the Liberals don't hold it.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

The margin has been steady for a while now, if it's still ~6% at halfway (96 polls) I'll call it as a Liberal hold

[adma]

85 polls

Liberal   Leslie Church   4,678   43.0 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   3,958   36.4 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   1,445   13.3 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   346   3.2 %

9-poll batch: 549/425/209/50

[Oryxslayer]

90/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 5352, 42.9%
Don Stewart (Con) - 4613, 37%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 1615, 13%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 391, 3.1%

Others - 151, 1.2%

(Longest Ballot) Indies - 346, 2.8%


Tightened again

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

It's narrowed slightly, was a 5% margin and now back up to about 5 and a half. I wouldn't be surprised if the race keeps narrowing, but it's ebbing and flowing as it does. Going to hedge my prior prediction with maybe a 10% chance of a very, very narrow flip, pending a suitable batch of early votes or something.

[Oryxslayer]

112/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 6684, 42.6%
Don Stewart (Con) - 5925, 37.7%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 1975, 12.6%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 497, 3.2%

Others - 187, 1.2%

(Longest Ballot) Indies - 439, 2.8%

[adma]

115 polls

Liberal   Leslie Church   6,880   42.7 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   6,007   37.3 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   2,059   12.8 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   516   3.2 %

3-poll batch: 196/84/82/19 NDP 2nd (presumably in the W part somewhere)

The only way there'll be a flip will be an advance/special balloting surprise.

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

is there any indication that the Longest Ballot is getting any actual people to support their cause?

[adma]

is there any indication that the Longest Ballot is getting any actual people to support their cause?

I don't think they *care*, exactly.  (Anyway, for now, there are but 2 candidates left w/zero votes.)

[adma]

A 120-poll re-narrowing:

Liberal   Leslie Church   7,249   42.4 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   6,464   37.8 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   2,184   12.8 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   550   3.2 %

Last batch Con 457-369-125-34.

A 125-poll re-widening

Liberal   Leslie Church   7,685   42.6 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   6,805   37.7 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   2,288   12.7 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   573   3.2 %

Last batch 435/341/104/23.

A *big* 130-poll re-narrowing

Liberal   Leslie Church   8,011   42.3 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   7,247   38.2 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   2,367   12.5 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   602   3.2 %

Last batch CPC 442/326/79/29.

[2952-0-0]

With these numbers it looks like the knives within the party will come out for Trudeau. The Liberals did better even with Ignatieff.

[adma]

135 polls; *still* narrowing.

Liberal   Leslie Church   9,047   42.4 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   8,214   38.5 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   2,626   12.3 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   658   3.1 %

Latest 5-poll batch: 1036/967/259/56.  (Wonder if any of that was advance, given the size of that)

[adma]

140 polls:

Liberal   Leslie Church   9,357   42.4 %
Conservative   Don Stewart   8,528   38.6 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Amrit Parhar   2,699   12.2 %
Green Party   Christian Cullis   682   3.1 %

Last 5-poll batch: Con marginally ahead 314-310-73-24