India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

https://www.businesstoday.in/india/story/money-from-accounts-being-taken-away-forcibly-says-congress-leader-sonia-gandhi-422339-2024-03-21

"Money from accounts being taken away forcibly, says Congress leader Sonia Gandhi"

Due to issues with tax returns INC bank accounts have been frozen.  How convenient.

Anyway any INC tears are disingenuous since the vast majority of election spending is via informal grey money.  This year due to INC control of Karnataka and Telangana a large part of the money pots in Bengaluru and Hyderabad are available to be used for the INC campaign, especially in those two states. 

This latest event will have some impact on the INC campaign but not massive.

[jaichind]

If INC does get an alliance with Left Front in WB then the list of states where INC and Left Front have an alliance are:
WB
Tripura
TN
Rajasthan
Bihar
Odhisa (TBD, this depends on how the BJP-BJD alliance talks shake out which could significantly change the INC strategy)

While the list of states where INC and Left Front are contesting against each other are:
Manipur
Kerala
Jharkhand
Assam


States where INC-APP have an alliance:
Goa
Gujarat
Delhi
Haryana

States where INC and AAP will contest against each other
Punjab

[jaichind]

Pmarq Mathrabhumi state-level polls (no vote shares)

MP
BJP              28
INC               1

Gujarat     
BJP              26
INC-AAP         0

Karnataka 
BJP-JD(S)    25
INC               3

Bihar
NDA           35
INDIA          5

Rajasthan
BJP            24
INDIA          1

TN
DMK+         37
NDA             1
AIADMK+     1

[jaichind]

Delhi AAP CM Arvind Kejriwal arrested for Delhi liquor scam case.

[jaichind]

AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal getting arrested could lead to the implosion of AAP.  If so that is good news for the BJP in the short run but even better news for the INC in the long run.  Most of the AAP vote is former INC voters and most likely will drift back to INC, especially in a post-Modi world.

[jaichind]

Detailed seat-by-seat Pmarq Mathrabhumi survey of Kerala

            Seats        Vote share
UDF       15               42
LDF         5               36
NDA        0               19

UDF loses around 4% vote share to NDA relative to 2019 and loses 4 seats to LDF in the progress

History of NDA vote share in Kerala LS elections with a slow trend upward over time.

1984       3.7%
1989       4.5%
1991       4.7%
1996       6.2%
1998       8.0%
1999       8.1%
2004     12.1%
2009       6.4%
2014     10.9%
2019     15.6%

[jaichind]

Other Pmarq Mathrabhumi state-level polls (no vote share)

WB
BJP                  22
AITC                20
Left Front-INC    0

Maharashtra
NDA                33
INDIA              15

UP
NDA                71
INDIA               9


All India
NDA             390
INDIA           120
Others            33

[jaichind]

I do not understand what 4-D chess the BJP is playing but this arrest of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal is not smart.  Just when the anti-BJP vote seems to be moving toward being demoralized and not turning out this move could reactivate the anti-BJP vote again, at least in urban areas.

[jaichind]

Delhi AAP CM Arvind Kejriwal has refused to step down despite being arrested.  His legal team is still trying to appeal to the courts.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/bjp-contest-all-odisha-lok-sabha-assembly-seats-polls-2518220-2024-03-22

"BJP to go solo in Odisha, no alliance with Naveen Patnaik's BJD after all"

BJP-BJD alliance talks formally falls apart.  This make sense.  The idea of a BJP-BJD was one of the stupidest ideas I have ever heard. 

[jaichind]

The Delhi AAP CM  Arvind Kejriwal continue to insist that he will continue as CM even from jail while he tries to deal with the legal issues of being arrested.

This is a big risk.  He faces the risk of being dismissed as CM and President Rule installed in Delhi (which de facto means BJP takes over)

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/NewsArenaIndia/status/1771086505244545108

This reminds me of this great joke from last year from a AITC MP
https://twitter.com/MahuaMoitra/status/1642911132137721856

[OSR stands with Israel]

The Delhi AAP CM  Arvind Kejriwal continue to insist that he will continue as CM even from jail while he tries to deal with the legal issues of being arrested.

This is a big risk.  He faces the risk of being dismissed as CM and President Rule installed in Delhi (which de facto means BJP takes over)

Apparently the INC filed the complaint

[jaichind]

The Delhi AAP CM  Arvind Kejriwal continues to insist that he will continue as CM even from jail while he tries to deal with the legal issues of being arrested.

This is a big risk.  He faces the risk of being dismissed as CM and President Rule installed in Delhi (which de facto means BJP takes over)

Apparently the INC filed the complaint

Correct

Here is the INC complaint filed against  Delhi AAP CM  Arvind Kejriwal last year before INC and AAP formed an alliance.



The scam seems to involve a bunch of Delhi government wanting to privatize the liquor business and a group of liquor barons from South India (mostly organized around a bunch of BRS politicians) wanting the rules of licenses to be structured to favor them.  It seems this lobbying effort involved them talking to  Delhi AAP CM  Arvind Kejriwal as well as political donations to AAP.

At least in the USA, stuff like this is SOP.  The threshold in India for this to be a legal issue is lower.  Still, the government has to prove that cash changed hands and there was a quid pro quo since these two events (business lobbying the government and political donations to AAP are both by itself legal.)

[jaichind]

Final NDA seat sharing in TN

BJP                    19
PMK                   10
TMC                    3
AMMK                 2
AIADMK(OPS)      1 (run as independent)
PNK                     1 (Upper Caste) (run on BJP symbol)
IJK                      1 (anti-corruption) (run on BJP symbol)
IMKMK                 1  (Yadav caste) (run on BJP symbol)
TMMK                  1 (Muslim (run on BJP symbol)

[jaichind]

Top electoral bonds donors and which party they donated to.

It seems "the top lottery king" most donated to DMK and AITC which I assume is related to his attempt to do business in TN and WB.

There are few firms with clear regional biases (WB or Telengana) but it seems the smaller firms that are not in the top 20 donated most of their money to BJP given the fact that the large majority of electoral bonds money went to BJP.

[jaichind]

Finalized INDIA seats sharing in TN

DMK         21
INC            9
CPM           2
CPI            2
VCK           2
IUML          1
MDMK        1
KMDK         1 (run on DMK symbol)

which is the same as 2019 seat sharing other than DMK taking over the IJK seat since IJP has rejoined the BJP+ front for 2024.

[jaichind]

In the Kuki-dominated Outer Manipur seat, due to riots since last year, the BJP brand there is so bad that the BJP will support NPF to run there.  NPF won here last time in a 3 way NPF-BJP-INC race.  This time BJP figures it has no chance so it is better to back NPF against INC. 

The law and order situation in the Outer Manipur seat is so bad that elections in that seat will be held in two separate phases so the paramilitary forces can be shifted to provide adequate protection from election day violence. 

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/india/story/arvind-kejriwal-arrest-external-affairs-summons-georg-enzweiler-germany-embassy-lodges-protest-2518550-2024-03-23

"India blasts Germany's 'blatant interference' over Arvind Kejriwal's arrest"

Germany is "concerned" about Kejriwal's arrest and is blasted by the BJP government in another move than can only help the BJP and hurt the opposition. 

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-bloc-bihar-seat-sharing-talks-congress-rjd-cpi-poll-symbol-distribution-mahagathbandhan-2518756-2024-03-23

"Trouble for INDIA bloc? Congress unhappy with RJD's poll symbol distribution"

In Bihar RJD-INC alliance is in danger of falling apart.  If that were the case the BJP made a mistake of taking in JD(U).  Had JD(U) stayed in INDIA then it would have been a 3 way collapse of the alliance and a BJP vs JD(U) vs RJD vs INC election would have produced a BJP landslide by itself.

[jaichind]

https://thesouthfirst.com/karnataka/lok-sabha-polls-eedina-pre-poll-survey-predicts-17-seats-to-congress-in-karnataka-11-to-bjp-jds/

"Lok Sabha polls: Eedina pre-poll survey predicts 17 seats to Congress in Karnataka, 11 to BJP-JD(S)"

Local Karnataka media poll as INC ahead

                     Seats         Vote share
INC                 17                43.8%
BJP-JD(S)        11                42.4%

If true then this would be the worst result for the BJP here since 1999

[jaichind]

In Bihar the RJD-INC seat-sharing troubles are most likely not about the number of seats INC is allocated but which seats.  There are reason to believe that the 16 seats the JD(U) is contesting might be "soft" since the core BJP vote might not go all out to vote for the JD(U) candidate given the JD(U) track record of betryraing the BJP.  There is the additional issue that the LJP vote is unlikely to be transferred to the JD(U).  Given this both RJD and INC want to contest against the JD(U) ergo a deadlock over seat sharing,

[jaichind]

India Today PSE poll on  Delhi AAP CM  Arvind Kejriwal's arrest  seems to indicate the BJP losing ground as a result

Will AAP get sympathy votes from the arrest?
Yes           52
No            39


Will the arrest consolidate the opposition?
Yes            48
No             36


Is there a risk AAP will implode as a result of arrest?
Yes, a lot    32
Yes, a little  28
No              33

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/billionaire-among-prominent-indians-flocking-modis-party-ahead-vote-2024-03-24/

Naveen Jindal, head of Jindal Steel and Power (JNSP.NS), opens new tab and a two-time Congress parliamentarian, followed the country's last air force chief, Rakesh Kumar Singh Bhadauria, in joining the BJP late on Sunday. Moments after he quit Congress, the BJP said Jindal would contest the upcoming election from his home state of Haryana for the party.

[jaichind]

Back-of-the-envelope calculations for Maharashtra

2019 rough strength

INC     18
NCP    17

VBA      6

BJP     28
SHS    24

2019->2024 evolution

Ashok Chavan faction defection INC -> 14, 4 to BJP
SHS split -> SHS(Uddhav) 15, SHS(Shinde) 9
NCP split -> NCP(Sharad) 10, NCP(Ajit) 7
VBA joins INDIA

NDA
BJP                 32
SHS(Shinde)     9
NCP(Ajit)          7
-------------------------
                      48

INDIA
SHS(Uddhav)  15
INC                14
NCP(Sharad)   10
VBA                  6
-------------------------
                     45

The main swing vote bloc is the old SHS vote.  Both alliances give more seats to the SHS factions than justified mostly because of the need to capture the old SHS vote.