India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/us-prosecutors-expand-adani-probe-to-review-potential-bribery

"US Prosecutors Expand Adani Probe to Review Potential Bribery"

Investigators are digging into whether an Adani entity, or people linked to the company including Gautam Adani, were involved in paying officials in India for favorable treatment on an energy project, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential effort. The probe, which is also looking at Indian renewable energy company Azure Power Global Ltd., is being handled by the US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York and the Justice Department’s fraud unit in Washington, said people familiar with the matter.

Biden to Modi:  I know you are going to win but do not thing it is all smooth sailing from here.  We can still make things difficult for you so fall in line where it counts.

Don’t these  investigations take years and if Biden wanted to make things more difficult for Modi , couldn’t he just pull back on some of the easing of trade barriers.

[jaichind]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/us-prosecutors-expand-adani-probe-to-review-potential-bribery

"US Prosecutors Expand Adani Probe to Review Potential Bribery"

Investigators are digging into whether an Adani entity, or people linked to the company including Gautam Adani, were involved in paying officials in India for favorable treatment on an energy project, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential effort. The probe, which is also looking at Indian renewable energy company Azure Power Global Ltd., is being handled by the US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York and the Justice Department’s fraud unit in Washington, said people familiar with the matter.

Biden to Modi:  I know you are going to win but do not thing it is all smooth sailing from here.  We can still make things difficult for you so fall in line where it counts.

Don’t these  investigations take years and if Biden wanted to make things more difficult for Modi , couldn’t he just pull back on some of the easing of trade barriers.

Yeah.  OK,   Not Biden but the USA deep state.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/lok-sabha-polls-sp-declares-6-candidates-gives-1-seat-to-tmc-9216631/

"Lok Sabha polls: SP declares 6 candidates from UP, gives 1 seat to TMC"

SP gives 1 seat in UP to AITC.  It is the seat of Bhadohi which is in Eastern UP.  AITC has no base in UP and Bhadohi is some distance to the WB border.  It seems SP wants to field a former INC MLA that has no connections to SP so having him run as AITC seems to make more sense and works as a good will gesture to AITC.

[jaichind]

More analysis of the list of top electoral bond donors seems to indicate that

a) Most of them are from the South
b) Most of them seem to have a lot of financial activities off the books
c) Most of them were being investigated by some central government agency  for fraud, money laundry, etc etc

Of course b) and c) are correlated and a) is correlated since the South is wealthier and has more opportunities for enterprises like these to thrive.  So far no smoking gun.  One has to also keep in mind that all sorts of grey money flowed from firms to political parties (usually ruling parties) for decades so this is just the continuation of that pattern.

[jaichind]

At this stage, most alliances are clear now.  The only ones up in the air are:

1) In Odisha, will the BJP-BJD alliance take place? So far it seems to be 50/50
2) In TN, where will PMK and DMDK go? So far most likely DMDK will go with AIADMK(EPS) and PMK will go with BJP
3) In WB, will there be an INC-Left Front alliance?  So far it seems not.  The impact of this is mixed.  The main function of INC and Left Front running separately is to eat up anti-AITC votes that might go to the BJP.  If INC and Left Front run separately that will weaken the viability of those candidates and the anti-AITC vote will tactically go to BJP.  On the other hand, most BJP voters are former Left Front voters so Left Front everywhere has a better chance of getting some of those votes back.  This is why ideally for the anti-BJP bloc what is best is AITC-INC vs BJP vs Left Front.  But it seems AITC has decided to not ally with INC.
4) In Bihar, will RLJP fall in line, rebel, or even join the RJD-INC bloc?  Right now it seems it will most likely rebel although that might be an act to get more concessions from BJP. 

[jaichind]

BJP has not renominated most of its sitting MPs in Delhi and Haryana.  I guess their reading on the ground is not that positive there and felt they need to minimize anti-incumbency by swapping most of their sitting MPs out.

[jaichind]

ECI says that there will be around 970 million registered voters and that there will be around 1.05 million voting stations.

[jaichind]

ECI says that it will not allow money politics to prevail.  That is a laugh.  The amount of money to be spent on this LS election will be massive and will impact India's GDP growth rate this quarter.  The scale of spending is unrivaled in the world and dwarfs every other political entity including the USA.

[jaichind]

LS elections are to take place over 7 phases ending on June 1st which is when exit polls can come out.  The counting day is June 4th.

Phase 1 : April 19
Phase 2 : April 26
Phase 3 : May 7
Phase 4 : May 13
Phase 5 : May 20
Phase 6 : May 25
Phase 7 : June 1

[jaichind]

The point of many phases is so the security forces can be deployed one phase at a time to deal with potential violence.  If you look at the map the area that has the smallest geographical area per phase is in the Eastern forest region (East MP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha) which is pretty much Naxal areas plus WB, UP, and Bihar (which has a history of political violence).

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

There will be 26 assembly by-elections as well for this election period

[jaichind]

The 6 HP assembly by-elections are critical as they are all INC rebel MLAs running for re-election as BJP candidates.  If all 6 wins then the HP INC government will most likely fall

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/IndianExpress/status/1768980114140999866

https://twitter.com/IndiaToday/status/1768979421225267612

[jaichind]

Each Phase and which states will vote in them

[jaichind]

ECI info on the surge of illicit spending on election recently and their plans to crack down on money politics

It is well known, especially in the South, that during elections the rate of spousal abuse surges due to the massive distribution of free liquor as a result of election campaigns

[jaichind]

ECI guidelines on campaign conduct.  Spoiler alert: these guidelines will be violated on a daily basis by all parties.

[jaichind]

TV9 state-by-state poll.  What is annoying is their vote share includes undecided so they are not projected vote shares

Major BJP vote share surge in Hindi heartland on top of its 2019 sweep

                          Seats         Vote share
UP
NDA                     73                53%
INDIA                    7                27%
BSP                       0                  9%

Punjab
AAP                     11                  28%
BJP                        2                 25%
INC                        0                 16%
SAD                       0                 16%

Bihar
NDA                   38                   53%
INDIA                  2                   33%

Haryana
BJP                      9                   55%
INC                      1                   29%

Uttarakhand
BJP                      5                   65%
INC                      0                   23%

Chhattisgarh
BJP                    11                   62%
INC                     0                    26%

Rajasthan
BJP                   23                    53%
INC                    2                     37%

MP
BJP                   29                    69% !!!
INC                     0                   22%

Gujarat
BJP                  26                     75% !!!
INC                   0                     15%

Telangana
INC                   9                      38%
BJP                   6                       39%
BRS                  1                       15%
AIMIM               1                         3%

Odisha
BJP                12                       42%
BJD                 9                       37%
INC                 0                       12%

Kerala
UDF              17                       30%
LDF                1                        23%
NDA               2                        25%

Assam
NDA              11                        55%
INC                3                         26%

TN
DMK+          36                         32%
NDA               3                        21%
AIADMK+       0                        15%

Karnataka
NDA            23                         57%
INC               5                         36%

AP
YSRCP          14                        52%
NDA             11                        40%

WB
BJP               26 !!                    39%
AITC             16                       36%
INC                0                         8%
Left Front       0                          5%

Maharashtra
NDA             28                        43%
INDIA           20                        38%

Delhi
NDA              7                         55%
INDIA            0                         33%

[jaichind]

TV9 total
                    Seats
NDA                376
INDIA              133
Others               34

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don’t know if this would make me called a BINO as well but I don’t want the BJP to have a larger majority than 2019 . I think one party dominance like that isn’t good for a nation and also a larger majority makes it easier for the BJP to replace Modi when he retires with someone to the right of him

[jaichind]

I don’t know if this would make me called a BINO as well but I don’t want the BJP to have a larger majority than 2019 . I think one party dominance like that isn’t good for a nation and also a larger majority makes it easier for the BJP to replace Modi when he retires with someone to the right of him

Modi's argument is that NDA needs to get above 400 seats since this is about getting a massive majority consensus about a set of politics that will take India to a true global superpower into to 2047 (100 year independence anniversity)

[jaichind]

It seems most polls are at NDA between ~350 and ~400.  My bet is that it will be in the lower part of that range.  Of course, since 1998 all election pre-election survey tends to underestimate the eventual winner which should imply that NDA should be closer to 400.  The reason I bet otherwise is because think most polls have started to copy the Axis My India strategy of doubling down on the momentum versus hedging.  It might have gone too far.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don’t know if this would make me called a BINO as well but I don’t want the BJP to have a larger majority than 2019 . I think one party dominance like that isn’t good for a nation and also a larger majority makes it easier for the BJP to replace Modi when he retires with someone to the right of him

Modi's argument is that NDA needs to get above 400 seats since this is about getting a massive majority consensus about a set of politics that will take India to a true global superpower into to 2047 (100 year independence anniversity)

Wouldn’t he need 2/3rd of the Rajya Sabha to be able to amend the constitution as well if that’s what he means by creating a new consensus . Also wouldn’t redistricting in 2026 force the opposition to adapt as that would make it official that the old style of Indian Politics is gone forever . So if he just wants a big enough win to force both parties to agree to a new consensus , then wouldn’t a 2019 style win be enough given the opposition wouldn’t be able to stop redistricting with that anyway .

[jaichind]

I don’t know if this would make me called a BINO as well but I don’t want the BJP to have a larger majority than 2019 . I think one party dominance like that isn’t good for a nation and also a larger majority makes it easier for the BJP to replace Modi when he retires with someone to the right of him

Modi's argument is that NDA needs to get above 400 seats since this is about getting a massive majority consensus about a set of politics that will take India to a true global superpower into to 2047 (100-year independence anniversary)

Wouldn’t he need 2/3rd of the Rajya Sabha to be able to amend the constitution as well if that’s what he means by creating a new consensus . Also wouldn’t redistricting in 2026 force the opposition to adapt as that would make it official that the old style of Indian Politics is gone forever . So if he just wants a big enough win to force both parties to agree to a new consensus , then wouldn’t a 2019 style win be enough given the opposition wouldn’t be able to stop redistricting with that anyway .

Just to be clear I do not accept Modi's reasoning as the true reason for his moves to try to push up the NDA seat count.  I always felt this was always about Modi wanting to be relevant in what is most likely his last term  and delaying the battle for succession for the leadership of the BJP

[jaichind]

It seems the total value of electoral bonds purchased and given to political parties since 2018 wen this system started is a bit over $2 billion.