India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/supporting-congress-cpi-m-alliance-in-bengal-means-voting-for-bjp-banerjee-101711895170188.html

"Supporting Congress-CPI(M) alliance in Bengal means voting for BJP: Mamata Banerjee"

WB AITC CM Mamata Banerjee's message is really "AITC nas broken with Left Front-INC so the anti-AITC vote should safely vote for them as opposed to the BJP"

Of course, BJP's message would be to call this out saying "Left Front-INC is a dummy front set up by AITC to split the anti-AITC vote."

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/prakash-ambedkars-vba-exits-mva-in-maharashtra-announces-candidates-from-8-constituencies/articleshow/108812134.cms

"Prakash Ambedkar’s VBA exits MVA in Maharashtra, announces candidates from 8 constituencies"

Big blow for INDIA alliance in Maharashtra as VBA exits from INDIA.  I guess INDIA is hoping for Dalit-Muslim tactical voting to stop NDA.  VBA candidates will eat into the anti-NDA vote just like in 2019.  It will really be about how much.

[jaichind]

https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/national/2024/03/31/cal32-elections-wb-gjm-bjp.html

"'Giving last chance to BJP' GJM chief Bimal Gurung extends support to saffron party in polls"

In Gorkhas dominated Darjeeling seat in WB, GJM which had broken with BJP and will not back the BJP candidate has decided to back the BJP MP in his re-election run.  In 2014 and 2019 the BJP won here mostly due to GJM support. 

It seems the Darjeeling-based CPM splinter CPRM will also back the BJP candidate just like in 2019


All in all the BJP should now go on to hold this seat.

[jaichind]

My best back-of-the-envelope estimate of vote shares for NDA and INDIA are

NDA     47%-48%
INDIA   31%-32%

I define INDIA as INC plus allies in each state.  So AAP in Punjab, AITC in WB, and LDF in Kerala are not counted as INDIA.  But AAP in Delhi, Haryana, and Gujarat, AITC in UP, and Left Front in Bihar, TN, WB, Jharkhand, Odisha, Rajasthan, and Tripura are counted as INDIA.

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/lok-sabha-election-2024-nirmala-sitharaman-money-bjp-candidates-poll-expenditure-eci-13753751.html

"Nirmala Sitharaman doesn’t have money to fight Lok Sabha polls. How much does a contender need?"

BJP Union Minister of Finance and RS MP turned down an offer by BJP to run in a LS seat saying she lacked the funds to fight an election.

ECI says the spending limit for a MP election is around $100K per candidate.  In reality unless you spend around $10-$15 million you are not a serious candidate.  The number is higher in the South and lower in the North.

[jaichind]

India TV CNX poll (state level)  (rest of the state polling will be tomorrow) (BJP sweep in Hindi heartland).  The trends so far show NDA at around 390s

Delhi:  
BJP                7
INC-AAP         0

HP
BJP                4
INC                0

J&K and Ladakh
BJP                3
JKNC-INC       3

AP
TDP-BJP-JSP  15
YSRCP           12

Kerala
UDF              10
LDF                7
NDA               3 !!!

Jharkhand
NDA             13
INDIA            1

Haryana
BJP              10
INC-AAP         0

Chhattisgarh
BJP              10
INC               1

Telangana
INC              9
BJP              5
BRS             2
AIMIM          1

Odisha
BJD            11
BJP            10

Gujarat        
BJP            26
INC-AAP      0

Tripura
BJP             2
INC-Left      0

Arunachal Pradesh
BJP             2
INC             0

Union Territories
BJP             5
INC             1

Manipur
BJP             1
INC            1   (Anti-Kuki riots will cost BJP a seat here)

Mizoram
ZPM           1
MNF           0
INC           0
BJP            0

Meghalaya
INC           1
NPP           1  (backed by BJP)

Sikkim
SKM          1
SDF          0

Nagaland
NDPP        1  (backed by BJP)
INC           0

Karnataka
BJP-JD(S)  24
INC            4

MP
BJP           29
INC-SP        0

Rajasthan
BJP           25
INDIA         0

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/arvind-kejriwal-arrest-ed-apple-iphone-password-india-bloc-rally-aap-congress-bjp-lok-sabha-election-2024-excise-policy-11711855952458.html

"ED reaches out to Apple for accessing Arvind Kejriwal's iPhone in custody, faces password hurdle: Report"

Now Indian investigative agencies want Apple to help them gain access to Kejriwal's iPhone

Apple refuses to help on unlocking Kejriwal's iPhone saying it requires the password.

Kejriwal claims he forgot his password for his iPhone

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/you-will-always-remain-a-hero-mallikarjun-kharge-writes-to-manmohan-singh-on-his-retirement-from-rajya-sabha-5362242

Manmohan Singh is fully retiring from politics

[jaichind]

This is the same thing with the current Trump legal issues. The issue here is selective prosecution.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/bjps-ad-campaign-attempting-to-link-opposition-party-to-george-soros-congress-urges-ec-to-take-action-11712071066667.html

"BJP's ad campaign attempting to link opposition party to George Soros: Congress urges EC to take action"

In other words, this ad is having an effect in urban areas.   This is an area that INC will be weak on, mainly collective West liberal-Left is viewed as being anti-BJP and that will work to get BJP votes in urban areas.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/bengaluru-news/karnatakas-mandya-mp-sumalatha-ambareesh-to-join-bjp-ahead-of-lok-sabha-polls-101712135225576.html

"Karnataka's Mandya MP Sumalatha Ambareesh to join BJP ahead of Lok Sabha polls"

In 2019. INC-JD(S) had an alliance so INC supported JD(S) in Mandya.  Sumalatha Ambareesh then ran as a de facto INC rebel with BJP support due to local INC hostility toward JD(S) and won an upset victory. 

Now Sumalatha Ambareesh will join the BJP, which makes sense, but will now support JD(S) against INC which is an ironic position given how she surged to victory in 2019 on the anti-JD(S) plank.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/boxer-vijender-singh-switches-from-congress-to-bjp-5365988

"Boxer Vijender Singh Switches From Congress To BJP"

In a funny turn of events boxer Vijender Singh was a very vocal critic of Modi and the BJP and ran as the INC candidate in Delhi back in 2019.  In fact, just yesterday he was still attacking the BJP and talking about how close he was to INC, and then today he joined the BJP.

Yesterday


Today

[jaichind]

CSDS survey of the Delhi urban poor show that most of them are falling behind economically and near majority of them blame the Modi government. 

[jaichind]

Seat sharing map in TN with all 3 blocs (DMK+ (or INDIA), AIADMK(EPS)+ and BJP+ (or NDA))

https://twitter.com/PollsTracker/status/1775533081945874614

[jaichind]

India TV CNX poll (state level)  (second wave) (more BJP clean sweep in Hindi heartland)

Maharashtra
NDA               37
INDIA            11

TN
INDIA            30
NDA                5 !!!
AIADMK+        4

Assam
NDA              13
INDIA             0  !!
AIUDF             1

Goa
BJP                 2
INC                 0

Uttarakhand
BJP                 5
INC                 0

WB
BJP                22
AITC              19
Left Front-INC  1

Bihar
NDA              38
INDIA             2

UP
NDA              77
INDIA             3

[jaichind]

India TV CNX poll  total - massive NDA wave with NDA outperforming everywhere

NDA    399 (BJP 342) !!!!
INDIA    94 (INC 38) !!!
Others   50

[lfromnj]

Jaichind what do you think the  Indian markets are pricing in for the election?

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/muslim-league-flag-rahul-gandhi-udf-rally-pinarayi-vijayan-ldf-smriti-irani-pakistan-2523198-2024-04-04

"No Muslim League flag in Rahul Gandhi rally, Congress bashed from Left and Right"

IUML is an INC ally in Kerala and TN.  At a Kerala  Rahul Gandhi rally IUML supporters were asked not to fly the IUML flag for fear the BJP will take pictures of the IUML flag and show it to Hindi heartland voters. 

[jaichind]

Jaichind what do you think the  Indian markets are pricing in for the election?

Mostly this

https://hindi.oneindia.com/news/rajasthan/phalodi-satta-bazar-today-bhav-for-rajasthan-lok-sabha-election-2024-905165.html

Current betting markets in Rajasthan

BJP   325-328 seats
INC    43-45 seats

Gujarat - BJP sweep all 26 seats
Rajasthan - BJP 23 INC 3
MP - BJP sweep all 29 seats
Chhattisgarh - BJP sweep all 11 seats
Uttarakhand - BJP sweep all 5 seats
Delhi - BJP sweep all 7 seats

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/smriti-irani-swipe-rahul-gandhi-roadshow-lok-sabha-polls-bjp-candidate-rally-cheat-amethi-people-2523172-2024-04-04

"In Wayanad, Smriti Irani says Rahul Gandhi cheated people of Amethi"

Smriti Irani, BJP MP of Amethi. who defeated Rahul Gandhi in 2019 is now stalking Rahul Gandhi in his seat of Wayanad almost goading him to run against her in Amethi.  It is a win/win for BJP.  If Rahul Gandhi does not run it will impact INDIA morale in the Hindi heartland and if he runs then it will eat up a lot of Rahul Gandhi's time which means he cannot help push up INC in the Deep South where he is fairly popular.

[jaichind]

Latest Times now ETG poll

NDA     384   (BJP   344)
INDIA    99    (INC    37)

NDA gained 2 seats from their poll a month ago once you take into account the TDP-BJP-JSP alliance in AP.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/amethi-robert-vadra-smriti-irani-congress-lok-sabha-election-2024-if-amethi-wants-me-robert-vadra-hints-at-contesting-lok-sabha-polls-5374375

""If Amethi Wants Me...": Robert Vadra Hints At Contesting Lok Sabha Polls"

There is speculation that Rahul Gandhi's brother-in-law and husband of Priyanka Gandhi, Robert Vadra, might run in Amethi for INC.  This sounds like a very bad idea and plays into the BJP narrative of INC as a dynastic party.

[jaichind]

Not all the major party candidates are locked in yet but my current back-of-the-envelope estimates of seats are

NDA 363 (BJP 312)
INDIA 121 (INC 63)
INDIA parties running outside of INDIA 32 (AITC, AAP in Punjab, Left Front in Kerala)
Others 27 (mainly YSRCP and BJD)

It is a big win for NDA and a small net swing from 2019 but not the massive wins of 380s or 390s that polls have so far.

[jaichind]

INC Manifesto

1) Caste census - I think this is not the winner INC thinks it is but they are going to double down on it
2) Constitution amendment to remove 50% reservation quota limit
3) Free healthcare
4) Reservation in private educational institutions

Net net,  INC has given up on the Upper Caste vote, especially in the North, for the next couple of election cycles.


 

[jaichind]

It seems in the end INC formed an alliance with Left Front in

AP
Bihar
Odisha
Rajasthan
Tripura
TN
WB

Which is the broadest in history.  The main problem is the Left Front is mostly a spent force outside of Kerala where INC will face the Left Front in a 3-way battle against NDA.