United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To-day's polls appear to be: Deltapoll Lab 43, Con 19, Ref 15, LDem 13, Green 5, SNP 2, Redfield & Wilton Lab 42, Ref 19, Con 18, LDem 12, Green 6, SNP 3, More in Common Lab 41, Con 25, Ref 15, LDem 10, Green 5, SNP 2. MiC continues to publish their unadjusted numbers as well which are Lab 41, Con 23, Ref 16, LDem 9, Green 6.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Focaldata MRP
https://twitter.com/focaldataHQ/status/1805265098803450304
LAB 450 - 41.4%
CON 110 - 23%
LDM 50 - 11.3%
SNP 16 - 2.5%
PC 2 - 0.4%
REF 1 - 15.5%
GRN 1 - 5.2%

https://www.focaldata.com/blog/focaldata-prolific-uk-general-election-mrp

I’ve marked the change from their last MRP results, polled for BestForBritain on the same boundaries, 20 Apr – 9 May 2023. I’m using the version of the model where they reallocate undecided voters and estimating their national vote shares using a weighted average of their projected vote shares for England, Wales and Scotland.

Lab +80 seats, +4.6% of est. national PV
Con -122, -6.4%
Lib Dem +49, +4.5%
SNP -12, +0.0%
Plaid Cymru +2, -0.1%
Reform UK +1, +10.0%
Green +1, +0.8%  (excluding NI in both old and new MRPs)

It’s also worth noting that their methodology for seat allocation seems to have changed. The newer map does not actually match the seat count this time, because they are using a probabilistic seat count at the national level. Using their point estimates for individual seats, we get:

Lab 451 (+1 seat from probabilistic alternative result, +81 seats from previous MRP result)
Con 113 (+3, -119)
Lib Dem 50 (+0, +49)
SNP 14 (-2, -14)
Plaid Cymru 2 (+0, +2)
Green 1 (+0, +1)
Reform UK 0 (-1, +0)

[DL]

So the previous Focaldata MRP projected just 1 seat for the LibDems???

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So the previous Focaldata MRP projected just 1 seat for the LibDems???

At just shy of 7% of the vote and once undecided voters were factored in, yes. Also a wipeout for Plaid and the Greens.

[brucejoel99]

This Express article is a perfect demonstration of inept Tory campaigning, and I'm a Tory. Rishi Sunak here is going after Kier Starmer because he "didn’t just oppose Brexit. He voted to block it 48 times in Parliament and energetically campaigned for a second referendum with free movement of people."

Meanwhile, if Starmer wins the election, his Home Secretary will be Yvette Cooper. EU Exit Day was delayed multiple times - from March 31st to April 12th to October 31st to January 31st - in large part because Cooper, alongside the now-disgraced Oliver Letwin, repeatedly authored and rammed through Acts (sometimes with barely one day of debate in both Commons and Lords put together) to delay the deadline.

Why has Cooper's name not been mentioned by CCHQ once in this whole shenanigans?

As an interesting aside, in 2001, Tony Blair was going to deliver a speech to the TUC Conference in which he was going to outline the UK's roadmap to Eurozone membership. This would have worked out nicely had the speech not been scheduled for literally an hour after the first plane hit the World Trade Center. The Conference was cancelled and the speech was never delivered.

Probably still better for CCHQ to remind people that Starmer was Corbyn's Shadow Brexit Secretary than that Cooper was a backbencher plotting with fellow Tories to delay Brexit.

[TheTide]

Two comments perhaps worth making on the Holborn and St Pancreas constituency poll.

1. It would be vaguely embarrassing (in a geeky psephological sense) for Starmer to get a big drop in his vote share when his party is almost certainly going to be making big advances, but it doesn't really matter.

2. The much more important point is that it is perhaps further evidence of the efficiency of the Labour vote. I'd be vaguely interested to see a poll of, say, the fifty safest Labour seats or something. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an overall drop in their vote compared to 2019 in them.

[Duke of York]

Two comments perhaps worth making on the Holborn and St Pancreas constituency poll.

1. It would be vaguely embarrassing (in a geeky psephological sense) for Starmer to get a big drop in his vote share when his party is almost certainly going to be making big advances, but it doesn't really matter.

2. The much more important point is that it is perhaps further evidence of the efficiency of the Labour vote. I'd be vaguely interested to see a poll of, say, the fifty safest Labour seats or something. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an overall drop in their vote compared to 2019 in them.

It would nice to see him suffer a big drop if not lose because he's such a boring leader and has few positions on anything. I don't think he will last a full term as PM.

[JimJamUK]

The much more important point is that it is perhaps further evidence of the efficiency of the Labour vote. I'd be vaguely interested to see a poll of, say, the fifty safest Labour seats or something. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an overall drop in their vote compared to 2019 in them.

Especially since many of the 50 safest seats in 2019 would not have made the list in say 2005 or 2010. The party’s very strong performance among ethnic minorities (especially Muslims) and urban progressives in 2017/2019 hides the fact these groups are very swingy and willing to abandon Labour in droves if the party does not prioritise them.

[axiomsofdominion]

The thing I'm really looking forward to knowing is if Corbyn defends his seat. It is technically a toss-up though Labour is usually leading.

[Blair]

Election certainly in that slower end stage now as the parties move to GOTV and skimming or expanding their target seats.

Two comments perhaps worth making on the Holborn and St Pancreas constituency poll.

1. It would be vaguely embarrassing (in a geeky psephological sense) for Starmer to get a big drop in his vote share when his party is almost certainly going to be making big advances, but it doesn't really matter.

2. The much more important point is that it is perhaps further evidence of the efficiency of the Labour vote. I'd be vaguely interested to see a poll of, say, the fifty safest Labour seats or something. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an overall drop in their vote compared to 2019 in them.

It would nice to see him suffer a big drop if not lose because he's such a boring leader and has few positions on anything. I don't think he will last a full term as PM.

I thought the line was that he was too right wing, not that he has no positions.

But after the last 14 years I am ready for boring; I have had 27,000 in student debt added, home ownership made a lot harder and my right to work in the EU taken away by successive Conservative leaders.

We are currently in a position where the social Democratic Party is about to win its biggest victory in its history and gain over 250 seats. It might be worth considering if maybe Keir has done some things correctly.

[YL]

The Tories have withdrawn support from their candidates in Montgomeryshire & Glyndŵr (a seat they might have hoped to hold) and Bristol North West (a former bellwether which they lost in 2017 and weren’t going to win back now) over the betting scandal.

[Skye]

The Tories have withdrawn support from their candidates in Montgomeryshire & Glyndŵr (a seat they might have hoped to hold) and Bristol North West (a former bellwether which they lost in 2017 and weren’t going to win back now) over the betting scandal.

Tory wipeout in Wales
Tory wipeout in Wales

[axiomsofdominion]

Election certainly in that slower end stage now as the parties move to GOTV and skimming or expanding their target seats.

Two comments perhaps worth making on the Holborn and St Pancreas constituency poll.

1. It would be vaguely embarrassing (in a geeky psephological sense) for Starmer to get a big drop in his vote share when his party is almost certainly going to be making big advances, but it doesn't really matter.

2. The much more important point is that it is perhaps further evidence of the efficiency of the Labour vote. I'd be vaguely interested to see a poll of, say, the fifty safest Labour seats or something. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an overall drop in their vote compared to 2019 in them.

It would nice to see him suffer a big drop if not lose because he's such a boring leader and has few positions on anything. I don't think he will last a full term as PM.

I thought the line was that he was too right wing, not that he has no positions.

But after the last 14 years I am ready for boring; I have had 27,000 in student debt added, home ownership made a lot harder and my right to work in the EU taken away by successive Conservative leaders.

We are currently in a position where the social Democratic Party is about to win its biggest victory in its history and gain over 250 seats. It might be worth considering if maybe Keir has done some things correctly.

Being more right wing is often an effective electoral strategy for center left parties, although more usually this kind of thing happens because the right ring over-extended. Still, it is amazing to see socialists arguing that being neoliberal is doing something right.

[YL]

In other news, it is not massively surprising that a Reform UK candidate made pro-Putin remarks at a hustings. That the constituency in question is Salisbury raises some eyebrows, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

I never fell into the trap of D/K mean won't votes in referendums, AV and Remain had large leads because those against where hiding under D/K and an unpopular government was pushing for them.

The unpopularity of the Conservatives is not going to make places like Pontefract "Woke Remain" under a Labour government, her husband lost his seat because those places are socially conservative.

As ever, deploying a transparent straw man like this suggests a lack of confidence in the underlying argument - and also ignores that Starmer himself is, on balance, moderately socially conservative; it is one reason amongst several why Corbynites don't like him.

And that was not the main reason for Balls losing either.

[morgieb]

So Vote Compass (one of those who do you align with style quizzes, predominately based in Australia and Canada) has done a quiz from the UK.

I got the following:

https://votecompass.uk/result?i=04615316e0dc0b93048a2d7b9c0d8d&r=34IMvYEN78vEnOZQIfxeN&l=en&n=en

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Tories have withdrawn support from their candidates in Montgomeryshire & Glyndŵr (a seat they might have hoped to hold) and Bristol North West (a former bellwether which they lost in 2017 and weren’t going to win back now) over the betting scandal.

Congratulations of a sort to Lembit Öpik who is somehow now no longer the most embarrassing recent representative for Montgomery.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Election certainly in that slower end stage now as the parties move to GOTV and skimming or expanding their target seats.

Two comments perhaps worth making on the Holborn and St Pancreas constituency poll.

1. It would be vaguely embarrassing (in a geeky psephological sense) for Starmer to get a big drop in his vote share when his party is almost certainly going to be making big advances, but it doesn't really matter.

2. The much more important point is that it is perhaps further evidence of the efficiency of the Labour vote. I'd be vaguely interested to see a poll of, say, the fifty safest Labour seats or something. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an overall drop in their vote compared to 2019 in them.

It would nice to see him suffer a big drop if not lose because he's such a boring leader and has few positions on anything. I don't think he will last a full term as PM.

I thought the line was that he was too right wing, not that he has no positions.

But after the last 14 years I am ready for boring; I have had 27,000 in student debt added, home ownership made a lot harder and my right to work in the EU taken away by successive Conservative leaders.

Failing to position at all is (ultimately) positioning to fail.

Starmer isn’t so much playing a centrist hand as keeping his cards close to his chest. My concern is that he’ll ultimately prove hesitant or otherwise unable to play much of a hand at all. This would be bad for the country, and also for Labour, because it would cede the setting of the political agenda to the other parties’ ideologues.

[Storr]

In other news, it is not massively surprising that a Reform UK candidate made pro-Putin remarks at a hustings. That the constituency in question is Salisbury raises some eyebrows, though.

Outside of the context of which constituency this occurred in, it's worse than your typical Kremlin apologist remark. This is because instead of saying of something along the lines of Farage's "Russia was provoked by the West", he specifically said this: "I have actually met Putin and had a 10-minute chat with him and he seemed very good. He is not the Austrian gentleman with a moustache come alive again."

https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/24407670.reform-uk-salisbury-candidate-says-putin-seemed-good/

[oldtimer]

The Tories have withdrawn support from their candidates in Montgomeryshire & Glyndŵr (a seat they might have hoped to hold) and Bristol North West (a former bellwether which they lost in 2017 and weren’t going to win back now) over the betting scandal.

Congratulations of a sort to Lembit Öpik who is somehow now no longer the most embarrassing recent representative for Montgomery.

I think that in America and Greece, Opik would have been hailed as a hero for his relationship with the Cheeky Girls by the male population.

[YL]

And now Labour have suspended a candidate, Kevin Craig in Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, apparently for betting that he was going to lose.

[CumbrianLefty]

Betting on your own seat is not against any party's rules I think.

But why make public that you had bet against yourself?

[oldtimer]

And now Labour have suspended a candidate, Kevin Craig in Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, apparently for betting that he was going to lose.

LD gain.

[Person Man]

I don't know if this has been posted before, but this is a really good interactive quiz to see who you support as it actually puts the party manifestos up against one another in a one on one manner.  It might remind some people of a dentist visit though.


https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1804160343708442815

maybe I shouldn't have picked so much off of large numbers because I ended up with Green on 3 of 4 issues and SNP on Defence.

I got LD on Taxes and NHS, Labour on Immigration, and Tory on the Military.

[xelas81]

And now Labour have suspended a candidate, Kevin Craig in Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, apparently for betting that he was going to lose.

Seat predictions had Central Suffolk & North Ipswich as potential Labour pickup.

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/?search=central+suffolk