United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[oldtimer]

Damn even Copium is failing the Tories? They're boned.

In terms of consequence of a high Green vote, we obviously have the two core seats of Bristol C and Brighton P, as well as the two constituency polls from herefordshire and Waveney Valley, but do they have any stretch goals? E.g. their prominent Isle of Wight activist Vix Lowthion is running in IoW E, and it's not like Labour have a huge machine; you also have a few heavy student areas like Sheffield C if they really take off in bobo demographics.

I really don't know if the constituency polls are any good, but I expect the Green vote to be higher than usual in high income white socialist areas, not in the middle of fields.

In contrast the LD have won fields when there's a high enough concentration of Manor houses on them.

[YL]

Damn even Copium is failing the Tories? They're boned.

In terms of consequence of a high Green vote, we obviously have the two core seats of Bristol C and Brighton P, as well as the two constituency polls from herefordshire and Waveney Valley, but do they have any stretch goals? E.g. their prominent Isle of Wight activist Vix Lowthion is running in IoW E, and it's not like Labour have a huge machine; you also have a few heavy student areas like Sheffield C if they really take off in bobo demographics.

They messed up Sheffield Central with their candidate selection problems.

True, and I understand Teal is running an independent campaign, but I do wonder how much that matters to the average Green/Lab swinger?

I think the problem is that the fact that they were without a candidate for so long meant that they couldn't get a campaign going, and that the fuss about Teal has cost them some activists. My impression from walking through the constituency (mostly Broomhill & Sharrow Vale ward) is that there are a lot of Labour posters and really rather few Green ones. They might be getting going now but I think it's too late.

[Germany1994]

How big are the chances in your opinion for Rees Mogg to lose his seat??

[YL]

Damn even Copium is failing the Tories? They're boned.

In terms of consequence of a high Green vote, we obviously have the two core seats of Bristol C and Brighton P, as well as the two constituency polls from herefordshire and Waveney Valley, but do they have any stretch goals? E.g. their prominent Isle of Wight activist Vix Lowthion is running in IoW E, and it's not like Labour have a huge machine; you also have a few heavy student areas like Sheffield C if they really take off in bobo demographics.

I really don't know if the constituency polls are any good, but I expect the Green vote to be higher than usual in high income white socialist areas, not in the middle of fields.

In contrast the LD have won fields when there's a high enough concentration of Manor houses on them.

My impression of the Greens' campaigns in places like Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire is that they are virtually identical to Lib Dem campaigns except that their bar charts are better drawn. (Here's a North Herefordshire leaflet.)

(Though I think the idea that they are NIMBYs about green energy projects is exaggerated.)

[YL]

How big are the chances in your opinion for Rees Mogg to lose his seat??

It's been made a bit safer by the boundary changes but that shouldn't be enough to save him if current polling is remotely accurate.

[Germany1994]

How big are the chances in your opinion for Rees Mogg to lose his seat??

It's been made a bit safer by the boundary changes but that shouldn't be enough to save him if current polling is remotely accurate.

Ok, I`m crossing my fingers for a Rees Mogg moment. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Opinium poll

Lab 40 (nc)
Con 20 (-3)
Reform 16 (+2)
Lib Dem 12 (nc)
Green 9 (+2)
SNP 3 (+1)
Plaid 1

20% even with Opinium's methodology...

Just as the postal votes* are dropping and being sent off.

_{*For non-British posters: since the advent of on-request postal balloting, postal votes tend to break much more heavily towards the two main parties than average, except in areas where the LibDems are making a big effort. This makes them especially important for those parties.}

[Thomas D]

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1804615854325190700

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Opinium poll

Lab 40 (nc)
Con 20 (-3)
Reform 16 (+2)
Lib Dem 12 (nc)
Green 9 (+2)
SNP 3 (+1)
Plaid 1

20% even with Opinium's methodology...

Just as the postal votes* are dropping and being sent off.

_{*For non-British posters: since the advent of on-request postal balloting, postal votes tend to break much more heavily towards the two main parties than average, except in areas where the LibDems are making a big effort. This makes them especially important for those parties.}

Perhaps it is actually a good thing for the Conservatives, because they can bank some votes before they start to fall under the 15% level or so where they start to get close to 0 seats. 

[Storr]

I make no predictions on impact, but a BBC headline that reads 'West provoked Ukraine war, Nigel Farage says' does not qualify as great publicity.

I just saw this tweet today. So by this logic, in order for peace the EU needs to contract and kick out Eastern Europe???

"I am one of the few figures that have been consistent & honest about the war with Russia.

Putin was wrong to invade a sovereign nation, and the EU was wrong to expand eastward.

The sooner we realise this, the closer we will be to ending the war and delivering peace."

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1804271596280123398

[KaiserDave]

Connecting the Ukraine War to NATO is already insipid and wrong on its own, but EU expansion? Ahahahhaha.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

My impression of the Greens' campaigns in places like Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire is that they are virtually identical to Lib Dem campaigns except that their bar charts are better drawn. (Here's a North Herefordshire leaflet.)

(Though I think the idea that they are NIMBYs about green energy projects is exaggerated.)

Here's a fairly NIMBYish green one:

https://electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19718/

"My top priorities are stopping inappropriate new developments, protecting our countryside and rivers, improving local services and tackling the cost-of-living crisis"

https://images.electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19718/grn3.jpg

"A strong, independent voice to speak up for this new constituency in Westminster Committed to properly-funded public services, especially our GPs and Hospitals
Protect our green spaces and countryside
Fight luxury developments on greenfields
Determined to promote affordable homes - the right house, the right place
Hard-working local candidate focused on the interests of the people in this area"

(emphasis added on this one, but not on the previous quote)

https://images.electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19718/grn2.jpg

Interesting how she wants to preserve greenfields, but also... have affordable homes...

Other than that, it is also focused on electability, but it is somewhat more issue/candidate based.

[brucejoel99]

Connecting the Ukraine War to NATO is already insipid and wrong on its own, but EU expansion? Ahahahhaha.

If anything, you'd half-expect Farage to start regretting Brexit with how more amenable to right-wing authoritarian fascism the EU is increasingly becoming, but Big Chungus needs an enemy.

[Harlow]

My impression of the Greens' campaigns in places like Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire is that they are virtually identical to Lib Dem campaigns except that their bar charts are better drawn. (Here's a North Herefordshire leaflet.)

(Though I think the idea that they are NIMBYs about green energy projects is exaggerated.)

Here's a fairly NIMBYish green one:

https://electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19718/

"My top priorities are stopping inappropriate new developments, protecting our countryside and rivers, improving local services and tackling the cost-of-living crisis"

https://images.electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19718/grn3.jpg

"A strong, independent voice to speak up for this new constituency in Westminster Committed to properly-funded public services, especially our GPs and Hospitals
Protect our green spaces and countryside
Fight luxury developments on greenfields
Determined to promote affordable homes - the right house, the right place
Hard-working local candidate focused on the interests of the people in this area"

(emphasis added on this one, but not on the previous quote)

https://images.electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19718/grn2.jpg

Interesting how she wants to preserve greenfields, but also... have affordable homes...

It explicitly says she wants to fight luxury developments on greenfields, not saying anything about affordable homes on greenfields.

I work in land conservation, and there are indeed ways to build affordable housing while simultaneously protecting valuable open space. Sometimes as part of the same project. I think this is trying to suss out NIMBYist rhetoric when it's not really there.

[warandwar]

surely if you want more density, you'd rather people rezone single family housing vs creating mcmansions in suburban sprawl in a natural area.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Tories getting humiliated by *checks notes* Nigel Farage.

2016 lol lmao even

[Philly D.]

Perhaps it is actually a good thing for the Conservatives, because they can bank some votes before they start to fall under the 15% level or so where they start to get close to 0 seats.  

Given the utter mess they're in, their organizational ability to do so is no doubt handicapped, and given their standing in the polls, even a competent execution of this element of the campaign would yield less than what they could (reasonably) hope.

[RBH]

what's technically more likely at this time, Conservatives retaining a majority, or a Reform UK/Workers Party coalition government? /s

so how long until this Conservative betting scandal spreads to party officials betting $100 to win $1 on the Conservatives losing?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I don't know if this has been posted before, but this is a really good interactive quiz to see who you support as it actually puts the party manifestos up against one another in a one on one manner.  It might remind some people of a dentist visit though.


https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1804160343708442815

[JimJamUK]

Here's a fairly NIMBYish green one:

"My top priorities are stopping inappropriate new developments, protecting our countryside and rivers, improving local services and tackling the cost-of-living crisis"

Protect our green spaces and countryside
Fight luxury developments on greenfields
Determined to promote affordable homes - the right house, the right place

Interesting how she wants to preserve greenfields, but also... have affordable homes...

It explicitly says she wants to fight luxury developments on greenfields, not saying anything about affordable homes on greenfields.

I work in land conservation, and there are indeed ways to build affordable housing while simultaneously protecting valuable open space. Sometimes as part of the same project. I think this is trying to suss out NIMBYist rhetoric when it's not really there.

The UK has a very low bar for ‘luxury’, and the ridiculous cost of housing means that basically any newly built non-social housing is not ‘affordable’. As a consequence people trotting out the ‘affordable not luxury’ argument here are able to oppose pretty much all housing developments.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Can’t remember where I saw this; thinking Reddit or AH dotcom. Apologies if it was already posted in this thread.
https://twitter.com/matteason/status/1793316137632985101

[adma]

Can’t remember where I saw this; thinking Reddit or AH dotcom. Apologies if it was already posted in this thread.
https://twitter.com/matteason/status/1793316137632985101

Given the comicality we're dealing with, this might be more appropriate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XouRgU-EX-g

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

surely if you want more density, you'd rather people rezone single family housing vs creating mcmansions in suburban sprawl in a natural area.

Britain don't use zoning fwiw

[Alcibiades]

surely if you want more density, you'd rather people rezone single family housing vs creating mcmansions in suburban sprawl in a natural area.

Britain don't use zoning fwiw

Yes, and it’s very common to have houses that were built as single family dwellings which now contain multiple flats (a lot of this happened in the post-war era). Even now, the rule of thumb is that developers who want to convert a single-family home into flats will probably not face too much difficulty in getting planning permission to do so, whereas the opposite (amalgamating flats into one home) is usually impossible.

[MABA 2020]

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1804271596280123398

Is there anything wrong with the world that isn't the fault of the EU in Nigels mind?