United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[snip]

Yeah, I get it — this would make me consider it too if I was the PM.
[chart of plummetting Tory polls]
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Guardian news
@guardiannews
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1h
Rishi Sunak says he is not opposed to assisted dying http://dlvr.it/T8MRWv

Brutal.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1802449229094228010?t=qCw3PCu5ZwRaeXy...

Update on the NI situation. Forget about (mostly SF) making gains, things are not looking good for both SF and the DUP when it might come to maintaining all their 2019 seats.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1802449229094228010?t=qCw3PCu5ZwRaeXy...

Update on the NI situation. Forget about (mostly SF) making gains, things are not looking good for both SF and the DUP when it might come to maintaining all their 2019 seats.

I don’t see what seat SF would lose except for the perennial coin flip in Fermanagh maybe, but that’s not tied to polling. DUP likely loses Belfast East on those numbers (although I see the SDLP and Greens are running as potential spoilers for Naomi Long this time, but TUV also have a spoiler for Gavin Robinson). Maybe the Alliance could win Lagan Valley?

[Oryxslayer]

Update on the NI situation. Forget about (mostly SF) making gains, things are not looking good for both SF and the DUP when it might come to maintaining all their 2019 seats.

I don’t see what seat SF would lose except for the perennial coin flip in Fermanagh maybe, but that’s not tied to polling.

Perhaps we have been too bullish on SF in South Down, just a theory. Don't forget South Antrim for the UUP.

[Estrella]

https://twitter.com/maiamindel/status/1802450213673767184

[Steve from Lambeth]

Survation has the Tories on 0(!) seats in Wales. Is this a live possibility or another example of MRP oddities?

Realistic. I think they will hold Montgomeryshire but a wipeout is very plausible and Montgomeryshire is the only seat they are at decent odds to hold on current polling. Maybe Brecon at a push but Labour seems to have given the LDs a free run there so the LDs should win it with tactical votes.

And you don't even mention the obvious issue with the man us lot have put up in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr. Good Lord.

[Spectator]

Did the Tories hire the geniuses running the NRSC to run their campaign or somethin? Good Lord, what did I miss here

[OSR stands with Israel]

Did the Tories hire the geniuses running the NRSC to run their campaign or somethin? Good Lord, what did I miss here

The UK Tories over the past 5 years have made the House GOP look competent . Thats how incompetent they have been.

They basically also made the UK's equivalent of Sarah Palin/Lauren Boebert PM who crashed their economy in just 45 days and since then they have basically been trying to come out of the wreckage but the party is to dysfunctional to do anything about it.

[Lumine]

18 days to go! Increasingly looking forward to election night, more so than in past elections I've watched (15', the Referendum, 17' and 19'). Feels like it's going to be one of those historic nights - for better or worse - one shouldn't miss.

[The Mikado]

18 days to go! Increasingly looking forward to election night, more so than in past elections I've watched (15', the Referendum, 17' and 19'). Feels like it's going to be one of those historic nights - for better or worse - one shouldn't miss.

The Brexit Referendum was one of those and was a fun viewing experience. (Probably less fun for the people who actually had to deal with the years and years of wrangling that resulted)

[OSR stands with Israel]

18 days to go! Increasingly looking forward to election night, more so than in past elections I've watched (15', the Referendum, 17' and 19'). Feels like it's going to be one of those historic nights - for better or worse - one shouldn't miss.

Last time Labour came into power they had a highlight reel like this

[Joe Republic]

The Reform candidate in North West Essex - Kemi Badenoch's seat, replacing Saffron Walden - has been forced to resign due to a blog post he made around 20 years ago encouraging people to vote for the BNP.  His name will still be in the ballot.

[RBH]

meanwhile in a candidate sacking from a few days ago

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2jjzln887lo

This being former Rugby League player Keith Mason, Workers Party candidate for Wakefield and Rothwell, who was sacked for anti-Islamic tweets.

Are there any former athletes turned Workers Party candidates left after this? Presumably the defense of "I can't be Islamophobic, I'm running with the Workers Party" wouldn't have worked much better.

[Blair]

Hilarious briefing in the Times that Sunak needs to go more negative and attack Keir over his support for Corbyn- ironic as the Tories have been flogging that horse for the last 3 years.

Those voters who care about this have already made up their mind and I suspect Labour have a good response- ‘Keir kicked him out- why didn’t Rishi do the same with Truss’?

They also wanted more attacks over Keirs record as a lawyer- we were promised for years that CCHQ had a big file on this but tbh they have already tried this attack before and Sunak even mentioned it in the TV debate.

[RBH]

Hilarious briefing in the Times that Sunak needs to go more negative and attack Keir over his support for Corbyn- ironic as the Tories have been flogging that horse for the last 3 years.

Those voters who care about this have already made up their mind and I suspect Labour have a good response- ‘Keir kicked him out- why didn’t Rishi do the same with Truss’?

They also wanted more attacks over Keirs record as a lawyer- we were promised for years that CCHQ had a big file on this but tbh they have already tried this attack before and Sunak even mentioned it in the TV debate.

the way the Tory campaign is going, they should just phrase it "Starmer is worse than Corbyn" in an effort to get Corbyn ultras to vote Tory because it's not like their appeals to the people who usually agree with them are actually doing much good.

[MABA 2020]

https://twitter.com/SirBillCash/status/1802266075536486830

lol what?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/SirBillCash/status/1802266075536486830

lol what?

I'd imagine someone with the name and title "Sir Bill Cash" would have had a fun time under Conservative government.

[Pericles]

Hilarious briefing in the Times that Sunak needs to go more negative and attack Keir over his support for Corbyn- ironic as the Tories have been flogging that horse for the last 3 years.

Those voters who care about this have already made up their mind and I suspect Labour have a good response- ‘Keir kicked him out- why didn’t Rishi do the same with Truss’?

They also wanted more attacks over Keirs record as a lawyer- we were promised for years that CCHQ had a big file on this but tbh they have already tried this attack before and Sunak even mentioned it in the TV debate.

We might still have time for this campaign's version of the Chretien face ad, lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hilarious briefing in the Times that Sunak needs to go more negative and attack Keir over his support for Corbyn- ironic as the Tories have been flogging that horse for the last 3 years.

Those voters who care about this have already made up their mind and I suspect Labour have a good response- ‘Keir kicked him out- why didn’t Rishi do the same with Truss’?

They also wanted more attacks over Keirs record as a lawyer- we were promised for years that CCHQ had a big file on this but tbh they have already tried this attack before and Sunak even mentioned it in the TV debate.

We might still have time for this campaign's version of the Chretien face ad, lol.

Arguably, the D-Day debacle could already qualify as such insofar as to how it's impacted the Tories. But who knows? The Tories might not disappoint us!

[Torrain]

Haven't had a chance to look at the Reform manifesto yet, but see they launched it in Wales (Merthyr Tydfil).

Seems to line up with the back-up strategy they've briefed out in the past, of using the Senedd's proportional electoral system to establish an electoral foothold, and access short money that won't be possible at Westminster unless they end up with multiple MPs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's also an attempt to squeeze in a bit more airtime. There will be many stunts or attempted stunts over the next few weeks as the regulations around that are a bugger for them and they will try to find ways around them.

[beesley]

Sky News' description of the Reform manifesto:

The document contains five core pledges - and the first two focus heavily on immigration. Reform UK pledges to freeze "all non-essential immigration" which it claims will "boost wages, protect public services, end the housing crisis and cut crime";

Reform claims it would "stop the boats" in its first 100 days with a four-point plan that would involve leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), with zero illegal immigrants being resettled in the UK, a new government department for immigration, and migrants crossing the channel in small boats being returned to France;

A raft of tax cuts are also promised, including raising the minimum threshold of income tax to £20,000 a year, abolishing stamp duty, and abolishing inheritance tax for all estates under £2m;
Reform plans to fund these tax cuts by raising £40bn from reducing the interest paid on Bank of England reserves, but the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said such a measure is "unlikely to raise even half" of that sum;

On health, Reform wants to create an "NHS voucher scheme" for private treatment if people can not get seen by a GP within three days and to hold a public inquiry into excess deaths and "vaccine harms" from the COVID vaccine;

Reform UK also vows to increase defence spending to 3% within six years and introduce a new dedicated department for veterans - before recruiting 30,000 people to the British Army;

The party also hopes to recruit 40,000 new police officers - and reduce main corporation tax to 20%;

Reform also outlines plans to abandon the Windsor Framework, and prepare for re-negotiations on the EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement;

The party pledges to support marriage through the tax system, planning to introduce a 25% tax allowance "as soon as finances allow";

There is also a plan to scrap HS2 in full - which Reform UK says will save £25bn, describing the high speed rail line as a "bloated vanity project";

Mr Farage's party also plans to undertake a reform of the House of Lords - which it would replace with a "smaller, more democratic second chamber";

Reform UK also aims to reject the "influence" of the World Health Organisation, and wave goodbye to "cancel culture" with a comprehensive Free Speech Bill;

Reform would also overhaul the BBC, and make St George's Day and St David's Day public holidays.

[King of Kensington]

Greg Hands, the MP for Chelsea and Fulham, says he could lose the seat due to boundary changes:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/minister-london-greg-hands-tory-losing-seat-general-election-chelsea-fulham-b1164866.html

[JimJamUK]

Greg Hands, the MP for Chelsea and Fulham, says he could lose the seat due to boundary changes:

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/minister-london-greg-hands-tory-losing-seat-general-election-chelsea-fulham-b1164866.html

FYI, this is actually true. The 2 wards added are very Labour and in the current circumstances mean Fulham could finally outvote Chelsea and deliver a Labour MP (something that could only have happened many decades ago when Fulham was much more working class than it is now, if ever). 

[Torrain]

On health, Reform wants to create an "NHS voucher scheme" for private treatment if people can not get seen by a GP within three days and to hold a public inquiry into excess deaths and "vaccine harms" from the COVID vaccine;
...
Reform UK also aims to reject the "influence" of the World Health Organisation, and wave goodbye to "cancel culture" with a comprehensive Free Speech Bill;

That's the sort of antivax dog-whistles I'd expect from Reclaim...

Reform also outlines plans to abandon the Windsor Framework, and prepare for re-negotiations on the EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement;

Ah, Little-Englanders blowing up NI's political consensus to please the TUV... wonderful.

Small mercy in that it's cuckoo enough that it's hard to see anything other than a truly broken Conservative Party agreeing to a formal deal/merger.