United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Lol at the Business Secretary arguing with a newspaper.

Wasn't it joked that communists read the FT as it was the only paper that couldn't afford to lie to its readers.

https://twitter.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1801529234919137755?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

idk guys i'm starting to think bojo's 2019 gains might not stick with the tories

[Banana Republican]

Another day, another poll, another Tory decline, another Lib Dem climb, another reform climb, another slight Labour drop (tactical voting?):

https://www.twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1801645774322942003

ashcowburn
New poll by @WStoneInsight for The Mirror shows Tory support falling - and lead over Reform slashed.

🔴Labour - 41% (-1)
🔵Conservative - 19% (-3)
🟣Reform - 17% (+1)
🟡Lib Dem - 11% (+2)
🟢Green - 6% (+1)

From 12-13 June/changes with 7th June

Seems like this is another poll that will contribute to the Tory wipeout and potential overtake by Reform narrative.

[Compuzled_One]

Another day, another poll, another Tory decline, another Lib Dem climb, another reform climb, another slight Labour drop (tactical voting?):

https://www.twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1801645774322942003

ashcowburn
New poll by @WStoneInsight for The Mirror shows Tory support falling - and lead over Reform slashed.

🔴Labour - 41% (-1)
🔵Conservative - 19% (-3)
🟣Reform - 17% (+1)
🟡Lib Dem - 11% (+2)
🟢Green - 6% (+1)

From 12-13 June/changes with 7th June

Seems like this is another poll that will contribute to the Tory wipeout and potential overtake by Reform narrative.

I assume that Con vote went 1/3 to Reform and 2/3 to the Lib Dems.

[TheTide]

For those who want to make predictions, here's a useful tool. It displays the names of each constituency when you hover over them.

https://www.mapchart.net/uk-election.html

[beesley]

Another day, another poll, another Tory decline, another Lib Dem climb, another reform climb, another slight Labour drop (tactical voting?):

https://www.twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1801645774322942003

ashcowburn
New poll by @WStoneInsight for The Mirror shows Tory support falling - and lead over Reform slashed.

🔴Labour - 41% (-1)
🔵Conservative - 19% (-3)
🟣Reform - 17% (+1)
🟡Lib Dem - 11% (+2)
🟢Green - 6% (+1)

From 12-13 June/changes with 7th June

Seems like this is another poll that will contribute to the Tory wipeout and potential overtake by Reform narrative.

In isolation -3 might be at the boundary between 'could really be a sign of something' and 'maybe nothing', but it's worth mentioning the fieldwork of this one was entirely in between the Tory and Labour manifesto launches.

[Torrain]

After Reform defended their candidate who urged peace with Hitler, there’s been some digging. The Times revealed that 41 Reform candidate are Facebook friends and followers of Gary Raikes, the fascist leader of the “New British Union” on social media. Which Farage has defended this afternoon:

On Thursday Farage claimed it was “utter cobblers” to say they had Nazi sympathies because “on Facebook mates send each other things” without “having any idea where it comes from”. During a phone-in segment on an LBC radio show, he said: “I can only apologise that not all of our candidates have been to Eton, to Oxford, not all of our candidates are part of the London set.”

Which feels less defendable when you learn that Raikes is this guy:


Reform have also defended the candidate who referred to black people as “baboons” and the one who said Ghislaine Maxwell did Jeffrey Epstein’s victims a “favour”, saying vetting was “truncated”. Absolute bin-fire of a party.

[adma]

After Reform defended their candidate who urged peace with Hitler, there’s been some digging. The Times revealed that 41 Reform candidate are Facebook friends and followers of Gary Raikes, the fascist leader of the “New British Union” on social media. Which Farage has defended this afternoon:

On Thursday Farage claimed it was “utter cobblers” to say they had Nazi sympathies because “on Facebook mates send each other things” without “having any idea where it comes from”. During a phone-in segment on an LBC radio show, he said: “I can only apologise that not all of our candidates have been to Eton, to Oxford, not all of our candidates are part of the London set.”

Which feels less defendable when you learn that Raikes is this guy:


Reform have also defended the candidate who referred to black people as “baboons” and the one who said Ghislaine Maxwell did Jeffrey Epstein’s victims a “favour”, saying vetting was “truncated”. Absolute bin-fire of a party.

Wouldn't be surprised if this is their way of bidding for the "youth vote" (well, a certain young *male* vote, at least--not unlike Maxime Bernier's crowd in Canada)

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

After Reform defended their candidate who urged peace with Hitler, there’s been some digging. The Times revealed that 41 Reform candidate are Facebook friends and followers of Gary Raikes, the fascist leader of the “New British Union” on social media. Which Farage has defended this afternoon:

On Thursday Farage claimed it was “utter cobblers” to say they had Nazi sympathies because “on Facebook mates send each other things” without “having any idea where it comes from”. During a phone-in segment on an LBC radio show, he said: “I can only apologise that not all of our candidates have been to Eton, to Oxford, not all of our candidates are part of the London set.”

Which feels less defendable when you learn that Raikes is this guy:


Reform have also defended the candidate who referred to black people as “baboons” and the one who said Ghislaine Maxwell did Jeffrey Epstein’s victims a “favour”, saying vetting was “truncated”. Absolute bin-fire of a party.

Wouldn't be surprised if this is their way of bidding for the "youth vote" (well, a certain young *male* vote, at least--not unlike Maxime Bernier's crowd in Canada)

I could see that.

[adma]

Wouldn't be surprised if this is their way of bidding for the "youth vote" (well, a certain young *male* vote, at least--not unlike Maxime Bernier's crowd in Canada)

I could see that.

Yeah; in effect, the "Andrew Tate" crowd. 

The kind who think of themselves as "above" so-called "higher values", on behalf of "purer values".  Where insensitive boneheadedness conveys "authenticity".

[YL]

After Reform defended their candidate who urged peace with Hitler, there’s been some digging. The Times revealed that 41 Reform candidate are Facebook friends and followers of Gary Raikes, the fascist leader of the “New British Union” on social media. Which Farage has defended this afternoon:

On Thursday Farage claimed it was “utter cobblers” to say they had Nazi sympathies because “on Facebook mates send each other things” without “having any idea where it comes from”. During a phone-in segment on an LBC radio show, he said: “I can only apologise that not all of our candidates have been to Eton, to Oxford, not all of our candidates are part of the London set.”

Which feels less defendable when you learn that Raikes is this guy:


Reform have also defended the candidate who referred to black people as “baboons” and the one who said Ghislaine Maxwell did Jeffrey Epstein’s victims a “favour”, saying vetting was “truncated”. Absolute bin-fire of a party.

I feel this sort of stuff isn't getting enough coverage. According to some polls nearly 20% of the electorate are planning to vote for this shower, and I wonder how many of them know what they're voting for.

It didn't help that some attention grabbing idiot decided to throw paper cups at him, but when Farage was in Barnsley the other day he really should have been asked about the disgusting reported views of their candidate in Barnsley North. (Which, according to naïve calculations based on the Brexit Party's performances in 2019, is one of their top targets, and, while that's a daft way to think about their chances of winning seats and I don't think many people think it's actually in danger, it's still of enough interest to them for Farage to visit.)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Which feels less defendable when you learn that Raikes is this guy:

[politicallefty]

After Reform defended their candidate who urged peace with Hitler, there’s been some digging. The Times revealed that 41 Reform candidate are Facebook friends and followers of Gary Raikes, the fascist leader of the “New British Union” on social media. Which Farage has defended this afternoon:

On Thursday Farage claimed it was “utter cobblers” to say they had Nazi sympathies because “on Facebook mates send each other things” without “having any idea where it comes from”. During a phone-in segment on an LBC radio show, he said: “I can only apologise that not all of our candidates have been to Eton, to Oxford, not all of our candidates are part of the London set.”

Which feels less defendable when you learn that Raikes is this guy:


Reform have also defended the candidate who referred to black people as “baboons” and the one who said Ghislaine Maxwell did Jeffrey Epstein’s victims a “favour”, saying vetting was “truncated”. Absolute bin-fire of a party.

It seems to me like the BNP has found a new home. As fun as it may be to see the Tories face decimation, I'm more uneasy now. Labour may even hit 500 seats, but Reform as the new primary right-wing party scares me.

[TheTide]

After Reform defended their candidate who urged peace with Hitler, there’s been some digging. The Times revealed that 41 Reform candidate are Facebook friends and followers of Gary Raikes, the fascist leader of the “New British Union” on social media. Which Farage has defended this afternoon:

On Thursday Farage claimed it was “utter cobblers” to say they had Nazi sympathies because “on Facebook mates send each other things” without “having any idea where it comes from”. During a phone-in segment on an LBC radio show, he said: “I can only apologise that not all of our candidates have been to Eton, to Oxford, not all of our candidates are part of the London set.”

Which feels less defendable when you learn that Raikes is this guy:


Reform have also defended the candidate who referred to black people as “baboons” and the one who said Ghislaine Maxwell did Jeffrey Epstein’s victims a “favour”, saying vetting was “truncated”. Absolute bin-fire of a party.

It seems to me like the BNP has found a new home. As fun as it may be to see the Tories face decimation, I'm more uneasy now. Labour may even hit 500 seats, but Reform as the new primary right-wing party scares me.

The Tory Party itself has of course been the home of the likes of Enoch Powell and equally dubious (although lower-profile) figures in more recent times.

[adma]

It seems to me like the BNP has found a new home. As fun as it may be to see the Tories face decimation, I'm more uneasy now. Labour may even hit 500 seats, but Reform as the new primary right-wing party scares me.

The Tory Party itself has of course been the home of the likes of Enoch Powell and equally dubious (although lower-profile) figures in more recent times.

Are there any current "celebrity endorsements" of Reform of any note?  (And as per my earlier Andrew Tate point, that includes those with "youth influencer" clout)

Of course, I'm thinking of the old Eric Clapton/Enoch Powell matter, though that was more "young man yells at cloud" than "youth influencer".

[Pericles]

The view from Liz Truss' constituency- (worth a full read)

“It’s highly embarrassing when people ask who our MP is,” says one shopkeeper. “It’s horrific to watch; pork, cheese, what next? When she’s a regular on Dead Ringers, how bad can it be?”

“Oh my god she’s horrific,” adds a passerby.

“People all think the same thing: that that was a quick in and out jobbie,” says the butcher of Truss’ short time as PM. “Everybody knows what she earns from it. That seems to come up quite a lot. A lot of people comment on that to me, because she'll get a wage now.”

Truss is entitled to security protection as a former prime minister, and campaigners and activists have also joined her on the campaign trail. But for the people of Thetford, her “posse”, “entourage” or “brethren” make the former prime minister appear haughty and unapproachable. As one shopkeeper puts it: “She ran past the shop at high speed, only stopping for photo opportunities”.

The picture is not much different in Downham Market, 25 miles northwards. While Truss has been seen out campaigning, one shopkeeper says she “only goes to the nice shops and cafes”. When she went to a local school, they claim she had “flinched” when a child approached her. Asked for a picture with some kids, the answer was “worse than no”.

[Cape Verde]

1988 Canadian federal election: PC 43.02%, Liberals 31.92%, Reform 2.09%
2019 United Kingdom general election: Conservatives 43.63%, Labour 32.08%, Brexit 2.01%

Very similar national vote!

1993 Canadian federal election: PC 16.04%, Liberals 41.24%, Reform 18.69%
2024 United Kingdom general election: ??

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

After Reform defended their candidate who urged peace with Hitler, there’s been some digging. The Times revealed that 41 Reform candidate are Facebook friends and followers of Gary Raikes, the fascist leader of the “New British Union” on social media. Which Farage has defended this afternoon:

On Thursday Farage claimed it was “utter cobblers” to say they had Nazi sympathies because “on Facebook mates send each other things” without “having any idea where it comes from”. During a phone-in segment on an LBC radio show, he said: “I can only apologise that not all of our candidates have been to Eton, to Oxford, not all of our candidates are part of the London set.”

Which feels less defendable when you learn that Raikes is this guy:


Reform have also defended the candidate who referred to black people as “baboons” and the one who said Ghislaine Maxwell did Jeffrey Epstein’s victims a “favour”, saying vetting was “truncated”. Absolute bin-fire of a party.

Wouldn't be surprised if this is their way of bidding for the "youth vote" (well, a certain young *male* vote, at least--not unlike Maxime Bernier's crowd in Canada)

Aren't these people in the U.K called 'the Yobs'?

[Blair]

I'm surprised it hasn't been commented that a former Prime Minister & beloved hero of the Red Wall hasn't really got involved; he's done a few identical videos from an office endorsing right wing allies of his, and his mail column but seeing as he were told he was very popular it's a surprise he isn't out campaigning, or even trying for a seat in Parliament!

[oldtimer]

I'm surprised it hasn't been commented that a former Prime Minister & beloved hero of the Red Wall hasn't really got involved; he's done a few identical videos from an office endorsing right wing allies of his, and his mail column but seeing as he were told he was very popular it's a surprise he isn't out campaigning, or even trying for a seat in Parliament!

Why should Boris be involved to save Sunak's party?

In the current Anti-Boris Conservative Party he can't even be selected in any seat.

If the Conservatives get decimated he ought to be able to return in any Labour held ex-safe Conservative seat, and become Leader-in-waiting.

Ditto if the Conservatives get replaced by Reform, he can join Reform and do the same.

[oldtimer]

Which feels less defendable when you learn that Raikes is this guy:

Good call.

Also in the final episode Spode briefly became the popular Conservative candidate replacing the previous one who was Sunak level.

[MaxQue]

After Reform defended their candidate who urged peace with Hitler, there’s been some digging. The Times revealed that 41 Reform candidate are Facebook friends and followers of Gary Raikes, the fascist leader of the “New British Union” on social media. Which Farage has defended this afternoon:

On Thursday Farage claimed it was “utter cobblers” to say they had Nazi sympathies because “on Facebook mates send each other things” without “having any idea where it comes from”. During a phone-in segment on an LBC radio show, he said: “I can only apologise that not all of our candidates have been to Eton, to Oxford, not all of our candidates are part of the London set.”

Which feels less defendable when you learn that Raikes is this guy:


Reform have also defended the candidate who referred to black people as “baboons” and the one who said Ghislaine Maxwell did Jeffrey Epstein’s victims a “favour”, saying vetting was “truncated”. Absolute bin-fire of a party.

I feel this sort of stuff isn't getting enough coverage. According to some polls nearly 20% of the electorate are planning to vote for this shower, and I wonder how many of them know what they're voting for.

It didn't help that some attention grabbing idiot decided to throw paper cups at him, but when Farage was in Barnsley the other day he really should have been asked about the disgusting reported views of their candidate in Barnsley North. (Which, according to naïve calculations based on the Brexit Party's performances in 2019, is one of their top targets, and, while that's a daft way to think about their chances of winning seats and I don't think many people think it's actually in danger, it's still of enough interest to them for Farage to visit.)

Complicit media. It's why Starmer will be a failure, his refusal to do the hard things. UK needs a Leveson II, in the same way Australia needs to break the media and grocery trusts.

[TheTide]

There are many signs of the Tories being doomed. One that hasn't been commented on much is that they have the implicit support of Peter Hitchens, someone who isn't known to align himself with majorities or winning sides. He is someone who has advocated the destruction of the Tory Party for twenty or more years, and now supports them when that aim looks as if it is about to be achieved. I think he did something similar with Brexit - he advocated it for years before the referendum, then was rather quiet during the referendum campaign itself and I think might even have become mildly anti-Brexit in the aftermath.       

[adma]

Wouldn't be surprised if this is their way of bidding for the "youth vote" (well, a certain young *male* vote, at least--not unlike Maxime Bernier's crowd in Canada)

Aren't these people in the U.K called 'the Yobs'?

Well, there's always been that symbiosis btw/BNP-type forces and the football-hooligan crowd.  But that's before today's uglier era of on-line "youth influencers"...

[Kalimantan]

I'm surprised it hasn't been commented that a former Prime Minister & beloved hero of the Red Wall hasn't really got involved; he's done a few identical videos from an office endorsing right wing allies of his, and his mail column but seeing as he were told he was very popular it's a surprise he isn't out campaigning, or even trying for a seat in Parliament!

Why should Boris be involved to save Sunak's party?

In the current Anti-Boris Conservative Party he can't even be selected in any seat.

If the Conservatives get decimated he ought to be able to return in any Labour held ex-safe Conservative seat, and become Leader-in-waiting.

Ditto if the Conservatives get replaced by Reform, he can join Reform and do the same.

If Boris does get involved in this election campaign it will be to back Reform. Would that even be surprising? Bet Farage has made the odd phone call to his old mate.......

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A rather slow day on the campaign front, with the news being dominated by the Princess of Wales making her first public appearance (at the annual Trooping of the Colour) since her cancer diagnosis. Of course, weekends are usually slower and most people pay less attention to the news on them.