United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[EastAnglianLefty]

Regarding Scotland, it's worth pointing out that (so far as I can tell - correct me if I'm wrong) we haven't seen much polling breaking down different regions.

It's not entirely certain that we'll see the same shifts in Greater Glasgow to the rest of the Central Belt, the North East may be different again and the Borders and Highlands might also go their own way. It's also not clear how much tactical voting we'll get and to what extent it will be on unionist or anti-Tory lines.

So whilst on UNS the Labour vote is pretty efficient and the SNP vote very inefficient, whilst the Tories are holding up surprisingly well, it's possible that things could be either better or worse for all those parties depending on if there are significant regional variations.

Sunak has 100% placed a bet on Labour to win.

Only question is whether that's nationwide or for his constituency.

[TheTide]

Something else that is potentially damaging for the Tories is that the National Service policy has clearly moved the discussion away from what most of the electorate likely prioritises. Even many of those who might support the policy in principle could be unhappy about this.

[JimJamUK]

Con to Lab switchers care about the economy and public services, while Con to Reform switchers are basically single issue anti-immigration voters.

Relatedly, Reform voters are once again shown to be very disproportionately politically engaged, which makes their underperformance in basically every election even odder (read likely big polling error).


https://twitter.com/steveakehurst/status/1795033765044949185?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg...

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1795024205215330471

[Blair]

His majority is very low (4K) and was going the wrong way in 2017/2019 but doing that would basically be mad; he is a relatively active constituency MP and holds a job in a role (NI office) where you really need ministers even during election period.

[adma]

Con to Lab switchers care about the economy and public services, while Con to Reform switchers are basically single issue anti-immigration voters.

Relatedly, Reform voters are once again shown to be very disproportionately politically engaged, which makes their underperformance in basically every election even odder (read likely big polling error).

Maybe it's more a matter of the *quality* of said disproportionate political engagement, i.e. a higher share of social-media-monopolizing shut-ins--that is, they're the reason the "do not read the comment threads" news-link rule of thumb exists...

[MacShimidh]

They're trying to lose, aren't they?

Honestly seems that way, doesn't it? Calling the election on a lark when the party is unprepared in over 200 constituencies. Blair-ing "Things Can Only Get Better" over his election call while he was busy getting drenched head-to-toe by heavy rain because No. 10 apparently forgot the concept of an indoor speech after COVID. His Welsh football mistake. Docking the sinking ship at the Titanic Quarter in Belfast because the Tory just had to go on a 4-nation tour like Nixon went to Hawaii in 1960. Trusting Gove to not retire. One-up'ing a tepidly unpopular Starmer announcement by announcing certifiably insane policy. If he's a Labour mole playing the long game, I'm not sure what he should've done any differently to kick the campaign off. I'm just sayin', if we never actually ruled out Truss being a secret Lib Dem mole solely intent on taking the Tories down, maybe we can't rule out a guy who was 16 in 1997 being a secret Blair fanboy either

I think I've said on here before that Sunak has never really figured out whether he wants to be the adult in the room or a red meat-throwing populist.

It's this fundamental disconnect, combined with clearly crap political instincts as well as an ultra-rich person awkwardness that could well turn this into one of the worst campaigns that any of us have ever seen. If the Tories have any sense they should stop him from running this as a presidential campaign immediately.

[Torrain]

How does this keep happening
https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246

[JimJamUK]

Con to Lab switchers care about the economy and public services, while Con to Reform switchers are basically single issue anti-immigration voters.

Relatedly, Reform voters are once again shown to be very disproportionately politically engaged, which makes their underperformance in basically every election even odder (read likely big polling error).

Maybe it's more a matter of the *quality* of said disproportionate political engagement, i.e. a higher share of social-media-monopolizing shut-ins--that is, they're the reason the "do not read the comment threads" news-link rule of thumb exists...

But surely such people should be an outsized share of the minority of people who vote in low turnout elections, given they would be so happy to push their opinions. On that note, I see very little pro-Reform comments on social media, but a much larger number of ideologically Reform comments. If even the politically engaged don’t seem to have fully taken notice of Reform, I’m sceptical that more ordinary members of the public with Reform adjacent views are actually intending to vote for them. I mean, Reform are apparently as popular as UKIP were in 2015 according to the polls, but there’s next to no evidence of this in the real world whether data or anecdotes.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If the Tories have any sense they should stop him from running this as a presidential campaign immediately.

Thank god they have a minister for common sense, surely they’ll have the sense to right the ship!

[afleitch]

Con to Lab switchers care about the economy and public services, while Con to Reform switchers are basically single issue anti-immigration voters.

Relatedly, Reform voters are once again shown to be very disproportionately politically engaged, which makes their underperformance in basically every election even odder (read likely big polling error).
[/tweet]

The question is, what are Reform voters engaged with.

Terminally online. And that's been bleeding into the heart of government for the last few years despite it having increasingly negative returns.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Con to Lab switchers care about the economy and public services, while Con to Reform switchers are basically single issue anti-immigration voters.

Relatedly, Reform voters are once again shown to be very disproportionately politically engaged, which makes their underperformance in basically every election even odder (read likely big polling error).


https://twitter.com/steveakehurst/status/1795033765044949185?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg...

Also worth noting that Reform tend to do better with men, whereas amongst women polling finds from Don't Knows. There is a plausible theory that a lot of men picking Reform are actually undecided and just picking a vague label to hide this fact. The sort of man who would do this is also the sort of man who would claim to pay a lot of attention to politics when he doesn't.

[YL]

And John Redwood (the Tory equivalent to Corbyn in some ways) has announced he's standing down in his Wokingham seat. There won't be many MPs who were first elected before the 1990s left in the next Parliament.

I think this is the current list. Status as standing or otherwise subject to change.

Margaret Beckett (Lab, Derby South) (Oct 1974/1983) retiring
Peter Bottomley (Con, Worthing West) (1975 by) standing
Barry Sheerman (Lab, Huddersfield) (1979) retiring
Harriet Harman (Lab, Camberwell & Peckham) (1982) retiring
John Spellar (Lab, Warley) (1982 by/1992) standing in Smethwick
Edward Leigh (Con, Gainsborough) (1983) standing
Nick Brown (Ind elected as Lab, Newcastle East) (1983) retiring
Jeremy Corbyn (Ind elected as Lab, Islington North) (1983) standing
Roger Gale (Con, North Thanet) (1983) standing in Herne Bay & Sandwich
Christopher Chope (Con, Christchurch) (1983/1997) standing
Greg Knight (Con, East Yorkshire) (1983/2001) retiring
Bill Cash (Con, Stone) (1984 by) retiring
George Howarth (Lab, Knowsley) (1986 by) retiring
John Redwood (Con, Wokingham) (1987) retiring
David Davis (Con, Haltemprice & Howden) (1987/2008 by) standing in Goole & Pocklington
Diane Abbott (Ind elected as Lab, Hackney North & Stoke Newington) (1987) situation unclear
Andrew Mitchell (Con, Sutton Coldfield) (1987/2001) standing
George Galloway (Workers Party, Rochdale) (1987/2012 by/2024 by) standing

Of the Tories who are standing again, Bottomley's seat has become a Labour target but the others are fairly safe barring an extreme landslide (and Chope probably even if there is an extreme landslide).

Spellar has just announced he's standing down.

[Torrain]

Alba’s candidate in Glasgow South has been out knocking doors this afternoon, introducing himself to prospective voters. The only problem?

He appears to have spent all day in Glasgow South West.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1794689116862656896https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1795059856446980240

I understand the anger towards Sunak who has damaged the Party almost beyond repair and all but guaranteed the majority of his MPs will lose their job next month.

But it's hard to muster much sympathy given that none of this would have happened without the complicity of a majority of the Party & what is now unfolding was entirely predictable- indeed predicted.

The hope is that when Sunak disappears off to California in a few weeks there are at least some decent MPs left around which to rebuild 🤞🙏🤞

Meanwhile, North of Hadrian's Wall:

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1795017247330545986

[CumbrianLefty]

The fundamental danger of the Tories going all out for Reform voters (even assuming, as per the above posts, that their current polling figures are broadly correct) is that the remaining more liberalish "Blue Wall" base of the Tories recoils in horror, whilst their targets remain scornfully unconvinced. If it goes *really* wrong in that respect, than an extinction level electoral event actually becomes possible.

[Torrain]

Meanwhile, North of Hadrian's Wall:

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1795017247330545986

Ah, that doesn't look good. Whyte was the SNP's candidate there for the better part of a year, having been selected last autumn.

This is a very vulnerable seat for the SNP, and they've spent the better part of a year raising his profile, including lots of personalised leaflets, placards etc. If they're burning all that work (and cash), there must have been something pretty uncouth going on behind the scenes.

[Torrain]

Also happening this afternoon - the outgoing Conservative MP for Telford has endorsed the Reform candidate in her seat:
https://twitter.com/lucyallan/status/1795110435655463196
She’s now been suspended from the party.

[oldtimer]

The fundamental danger of the Tories going all out for Reform voters (even assuming, as per the above posts, that their current polling figures are broadly correct) is that the remaining more liberalish "Blue Wall" base of the Tories recoils in horror, whilst their targets remain scornfully unconvinced. If it goes *really* wrong in that respect, than an extinction level electoral event actually becomes possible.

Or a pitch for Tory votes to vote Reform:

https://x.com/lucyallan/status/1795110435655463196

Lucy Allan announces retirement and endorshing Reform in Telford.

UKIP got 18% there in 2015, though Labour ought to get around 50% this time making it academic in that seat.

[brucejoel99]

Please end up being LOTO:

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1795113386415423770

[oldtimer]

The Lucy Allan news kind of sharpens the idea of Tory MP's trying to survive by jumping on the Reform lifeboat or just to punish Sunak.

It makes practical sence on the UKIP coast, and especially if Reform jumps ahead of the Conservatives in the opinion polls.

[JimJamUK]

Ah, that doesn't look good. Whyte was the SNP's candidate there for the better part of a year, having been selected last autumn.

This is a very vulnerable seat for the SNP, and they've spent the better part of a year raising his profile, including lots of personalised leaflets, placards etc. If they're burning all that work (and cash), there must have been something pretty uncouth going on behind the scenes.

Given the majority, ‘burning’ really is the right term for any resources they are putting into defending East Lothian.

[JimJamUK]

Also happening this afternoon - the outgoing Conservative MP for Telford has endorsed the Reform candidate in her seat

She previously all but endorsed the Brexit Party in the 2019 EU elections, and among other things shared a doctored Starmer video on grooming gangs and posted a copy of an email on Facebook where she forgot to mention she had edited it to add a death threat.

[YL]

The fundamental danger of the Tories going all out for Reform voters (even assuming, as per the above posts, that their current polling figures are broadly correct) is that the remaining more liberalish "Blue Wall" base of the Tories recoils in horror, whilst their targets remain scornfully unconvinced. If it goes *really* wrong in that respect, than an extinction level electoral event actually becomes possible.

Or a pitch for Tory votes to vote Reform:

https://x.com/lucyallan/status/1795110435655463196

Lucy Allan announces retirement and endorshing Reform in Telford.

UKIP got 18% there in 2015, though Labour ought to get around 50% this time making it academic in that seat.

She announced her retirement some time ago, but still. Shropshire Tories strike again.

[Blair]

They're trying to lose, aren't they?

Honestly seems that way, doesn't it? Calling the election on a lark when the party is unprepared in over 200 constituencies. Blair-ing "Things Can Only Get Better" over his election call while he was busy getting drenched head-to-toe by heavy rain because No. 10 apparently forgot the concept of an indoor speech after COVID. His Welsh football mistake. Docking the sinking ship at the Titanic Quarter in Belfast because the Tory just had to go on a 4-nation tour like Nixon went to Hawaii in 1960. Trusting Gove to not retire. One-up'ing a tepidly unpopular Starmer announcement by announcing certifiably insane policy. If he's a Labour mole playing the long game, I'm not sure what he should've done any differently to kick the campaign off. I'm just sayin', if we never actually ruled out Truss being a secret Lib Dem mole solely intent on taking the Tories down, maybe we can't rule out a guy who was 16 in 1997 being a secret Blair fanboy either

I think I've said on here before that Sunak has never really figured out whether he wants to be the adult in the room or a red meat-throwing populist.

It's this fundamental disconnect, combined with clearly crap political instincts as well as an ultra-rich person awkwardness that could well turn this into one of the worst campaigns that any of us have ever seen. If the Tories have any sense they should stop him from running this as a presidential campaign immediately.

He has obviously been in Parliament for 8 years & I don't always like the comparisons with the US, but he seems extremely similar to business people who enter politics in the states and waste millions on expensive advisers who tell him different things which leads to them having 4-5 different 'versions'