United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Coldstream]

It’s heartening how many people seem to have already ruled the Tories out on the doors. It’ll be hard for them to get them back if Reform run even a vaguely competent campaign.

[Blair]

In today's summary a sitting Minister has called the Conservatives flagship policy terrible, CCHQ has accidently called their own MPs lazy and revealed they lack funding & a Tory MP has had the whip removed for endorsing reform.

Labour once again just need to stand still.

On the Lib Dems my very rough predication is for them to land around 30-50 MPs, but once you start playing with tactical voting and pushing all sides to their limits it's really not that hard to get to a position where they could be less than 50 seats between them & the Conservatives- ironically it would actually be Labours high watermark that would limit the liberals; if you took some of their old urban seats that Labour now hold you could add 20 or so seats perhaps?

[oldtimer]

They're trying to lose, aren't they?

Honestly seems that way, doesn't it? Calling the election on a lark when the party is unprepared in over 200 constituencies. Blair-ing "Things Can Only Get Better" over his election call while he was busy getting drenched head-to-toe by heavy rain because No. 10 apparently forgot the concept of an indoor speech after COVID. His Welsh football mistake. Docking the sinking ship at the Titanic Quarter in Belfast because the Tory just had to go on a 4-nation tour like Nixon went to Hawaii in 1960. Trusting Gove to not retire. One-up'ing a tepidly unpopular Starmer announcement by announcing certifiably insane policy. If he's a Labour mole playing the long game, I'm not sure what he should've done any differently to kick the campaign off. I'm just sayin', if we never actually ruled out Truss being a secret Lib Dem mole solely intent on taking the Tories down, maybe we can't rule out a guy who was 16 in 1997 being a secret Blair fanboy either

I think I've said on here before that Sunak has never really figured out whether he wants to be the adult in the room or a red meat-throwing populist.

It's this fundamental disconnect, combined with clearly crap political instincts as well as an ultra-rich person awkwardness that could well turn this into one of the worst campaigns that any of us have ever seen. If the Tories have any sense they should stop him from running this as a presidential campaign immediately.

He has obviously been in Parliament for 8 years & I don't always like the comparisons with the US, but he seems extremely similar to business people who enter politics in the states and waste millions on expensive advisers who tell him different things which leads to them having 4-5 different 'versions'

Was Mitt Romney this bad ? Now that I remember, yes he was that bad.

[Joe Republic]

In today's summary a sitting Minister has called the Conservatives flagship policy terrible, CCHQ has accidently called their own MPs lazy and revealed they lack funding & a Tory MP has had the whip removed for endorsing reform.

Labour once again just need to stand still.

Napoleon had a quote for this precise situation.

[Joe Republic]

It’s heartening how many people seem to have already ruled the Tories out on the doors. It’ll be hard for them to get them back if Reform run even a vaguely competent campaign.

What proportion of the doors you knocked on said they were voting Tory?  And… uh… why??

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1795119365844517293

[TheTide]

Given that Southampton are back in the Premiership, I think that the election is now a mere afterthought for Sunak. Even more than it was before. Like most people in the UK who are heavily into football, he probably adheres to the great Bill Shankly quote. All of this makes an even more chaotic Tory campaign more likely.

[Torrain]

Andy Street won't run for Parliament:
https://twitter.com/andy4wm/status/1795160893208019344

[President Johnson]

Is Sunak himself in a safe seat? Any takes on his future? I'm not sure he goes back to become a backbencher. He more seems like someone who would go into the private sector and make a fortune.

[WD]

Is Sunak himself in a safe seat? Any takes on his future? I'm not sure he goes back to become a backbencher. He more seems like someone who would go into the private sector and make a fortune.

“Safe” in the sense he’ll probably win by 5K or so.

[YL]

Is Sunak himself in a safe seat?

Yes: generally prosperous countryside and small towns with a significant military element (one of its largest settlements is Catterick Garrison). It was nearly lost in the 1989 by-election which first sent William Hague to Parliament -- indeed if it hadn't been for the Lib Dem/SDP split it presumably would have been -- but losing it in a General Election would be spectacular.

Any takes on his future? I'm not sure he goes back to become a backbencher. He more seems like someone who would go into the private sector and make a fortune.

Yes, that's what a lot of people seem to think. (Hence why Peston asked him that question.)

[brucejoel99]

Andy Street won't run for Parliament:

https://x.com/andy4wm/status/1795160893208019344

"I want an executive leadership role, it's quite literally the only way in which I could be of public service, which is why I won't stand to be a Tory MP & potential Leader of the Opposition/Prime Minister-in-waiting." The Liberal Party of 1922 is truly sending its regards from beyond the grave.

Is Sunak himself in a safe seat? Any takes on his future? I'm not sure he goes back to become a backbencher. He more seems like someone who would go into the private sector and make a fortune.

Rishi is the MP for Richmond (Yorks), a wealthy rural constituency that's one of the safest Tory seats in the country: it's the former seat of ex-party grandee Lord Hague, it has literally never been held by Labour, it's been a Tory stronghold since the early 20th century, it's presumably in the top 80 seats that one could reasonably expect to remain Tory even if they genuinely win no more than 80 seats, & yet, a 2-month-old MRP poll suggests that Sunak could lose it, given a shaky lead in the new boundary-changed Richmond & Northallerton constituency of just 2.4%.

Is Sunak himself in a safe seat?

Yes: generally prosperous countryside and small towns with a significant military element (one of its largest settlements is Catterick Garrison). It was nearly lost in the 1989 by-election which first sent William Hague to Parliament -- indeed if it hadn't been for the Lib Dem/SDP split it presumably would have been -- but losing it in a General Election would be spectacular.

I believe the most recent similarity is still John Howard losing his seat in 2007, although his Bennelong seat had become increasingly marginal over the 30+ years he represented it, whereas for the UK, Sunak losing would undoubtedly be the new Portillo moment to crown them all; it may even justify renaming it the Rishi moment. "Were you still up for Sunak?"

Any takes on his future? I'm not sure he goes back to become a backbencher. He more seems like someone who would go into the private sector and make a fortune.

Yes, that's what a lot of people seem to think. (Hence why Peston asked him that question.)

Supposedly supporting this further is that the 4th of July is a rather ideal date if you're looking to get the family moved back to Stanford in time for the start of the new school year in late Aug.

[Torrain]

Four Labour MPs have stood down from safe seats since the election was called:

• John Spellar - Warley/Smethwick
• Virendra Sharma - Ealing Southall
• Kevin Brennan - Cardiff West
• John Cryer - Leyton and Wanstead

Maybe more of a question for the THIGMOO thread, but curious if there's a sense of who is getting parachuted in (beyond the Morgan McSweeney rumours), now we're under GE rules, and the NEC can basically do what it wants in selections?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I will note with amusement that quite a few of the Labour MPs announcing a late retirement have been notable fixers at times in their careers: Spellar, Brennan, Jones...

[beesley]

Just an experiment - it might prove a waste of time, but it might prove interesting. If people want me to stop, or to continue, I'll follow their wishes. In fact I already missed Starmer's visit to Glasgow, which I'll add next time. Criteria - a simple visit for the purpose of the campaign, as developing anything more specific makes it unwieldy.

[brucejoel99]

Maybe more of a question for the THIGMOO thread, but curious if there's a sense of who is getting parachuted in (beyond the Morgan McSweeney rumours), now we're under GE rules, and the NEC can basically do what it wants in selections?

Rachel Reeves into No. 10 circa summer-autumn 2030

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just an experiment - it might prove a waste of time, but it might prove interesting. If people want me to stop, or to continue, I'll follow their wishes.

Plz continue.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Uh, is he trying to lose? https://apnews.com/article/uk-election-national-service-rishi-sunak-fdaf7e38793434e4f060c11735fef71e

[Torrain]

I know we've already done Steve Baker this morning, but he's on a roll today:

Mr Baker is currently in Greece where he told the Daily Mirror he will be doing his “campaign work”.

“The Prime Minister told everyone we could go on holiday and then called a snap election,” he told the Mirror from Vasiliki.

“So I’ve chosen to do my campaign work in Greece.”

[Blair]

The tories latest masterplan is too attack Keir as 'sleepy'; this was long planned as those sad enough (me!) to read the rubbish CCHQ Spads brief out know that they said months ago they would make Keir's age (he's 61) an issue in the election.

It is rather odd as it appears to just be annoying people in their 60s and also he doesn't look 61, nor does he look look tired...

[Alcibiades]

The tories latest masterplan is too attack Keir as 'sleepy'; this was long planned as those sad enough (me!) to read the rubbish CCHQ Spads brief out know that they said months ago they would make Keir's age (he's 61) an issue in the election.

It is rather odd as it appears to just be annoying people in their 60s and also he doesn't look 61, nor does he look look tired...

Also a great line to use when the median age of your party's electorate is almost certainly well over 61.

[Coldstream]

It’s heartening how many people seem to have already ruled the Tories out on the doors. It’ll be hard for them to get them back if Reform run even a vaguely competent campaign.

What proportion of the doors you knocked on said they were voting Tory?  And… uh… why??

Probably fewer than 1 in 20. Some sessions we found none. Some of the people who say go away/no thanks will be Tory. And surely some of the undecideds will go back to them…but it doesn’t feel good for their health.

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://twitter.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1794689116862656896

This is astonishing given that one of the things Sunak did prior to calling the election was to reach out to big donors to make sure they were prepared to contribute. If they're still getting outspent, then things are desperate.

[bore]

I know we've already done Steve Baker this morning, but he's on a roll today:

Mr Baker is currently in Greece where he told the Daily Mirror he will be doing his “campaign work”.

“The Prime Minister told everyone we could go on holiday and then called a snap election,” he told the Mirror from Vasiliki.

“So I’ve chosen to do my campaign work in Greece.”

POV you're a tory staffer who is phoning MPs to ask why they're not knocking on doors in their constituency:

[Boobs]

Just an experiment - it might prove a waste of time, but it might prove interesting. If people want me to stop, or to continue, I'll follow their wishes. In fact I already missed Starmer's visit to Glasgow, which I'll add next time. Criteria - a simple visit for the purpose of the campaign, as developing anything more specific makes it unwieldy.

It would be more work, but tracking visits by week using varying shades of blue/red/gold would also be interesting. We could see how the parties’ own internal expectations change throughout the campaign.

But even without it, this is going to be extremely useful. Thanks for putting in the work.