United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Cassius]

Worth bearing in mind that the poll was carried out under the auspices of the ‘Conservative Britain Alliance’ (a Lord Frost linked outfit) and is being spun as an warning to the Tories that they need to shift rightwards in order to head off vote splitting with Reform, who apparently would deprive them of ninety-six seats and hand Labour a majority under this model. To put it mildly, I don’t regard this as credible, given the shares the Conservatives (and Labour) are getting in all other published opinion polls and the lack of any hard evidence for a Reform surge in by-elections at the constituency/local government level. To be taken with a gritter’s worth of salt.

[TheTide]

Worth bearing in mind that the poll was carried out under the auspices of the ‘Conservative Britain Alliance’ (a Lord Frost linked outfit) and is being spun as an warning to the Tories that they need to shift rightwards in order to head off vote splitting with Reform, who apparently would deprive them of ninety-six seats and hand Labour a majority under this model. To put it mildly, I don’t regard this as credible, given the shares the Conservatives (and Labour) are getting in all other published opinion polls and the lack of any hard evidence for a Reform surge in by-elections at the constituency/local government level. To be taken with a gritter’s worth of salt.

This seems to be based on the assumption that voters fit into neat and tidy categories (both in a voting sense and in a general outlook sense) of 'left/progressive/etc' and 'right/conservative etc'. The Progressive Alliance lot on social media make pretty much the same assumption. It is known, however, from various preferential and ranked-choice voting systems (both here and elsewhere) that many voters don't fit into such categories.

This point needs to be made to those who have a moan about the lines of "OMG if left-wing party B had stood down then left-wing party A would have won" when there is a result under FPTP of something like:

Right-wing party - 49%
Left-wing party A - 28%
Left-wing party B - 23%

The result under a preferential system would probably be something like 54-46% in favour of the right-wing party.

Obviously Reform could cost the Tories some seats, but 100-odd is absurd even if they do poll 10% or more (and that's very doubtful).   

[Oryxslayer]

The other issue with Reform right now is we have had a myriad of statements how the voters expressing that desire are just unhappy Conservatives. Shifting right or left in policy won't bring them back, they are parking a vote with Reform for tor the same reason others went to Labour, only difference being that these voters opt to stay in the right 'bloc.' Both are unhappy with the government in general, no super-specific certain policy. Some will come back via a FPTP campaign, some won't. Thats it.

[icc]

Worth bearing in mind that the poll was carried out under the auspices of the ‘Conservative Britain Alliance’ (a Lord Frost linked outfit) and is being spun as an warning to the Tories that they need to shift rightwards in order to head off vote splitting with Reform, who apparently would deprive them of ninety-six seats and hand Labour a majority under this model. To put it mildly, I don’t regard this as credible, given the shares the Conservatives (and Labour) are getting in all other published opinion polls and the lack of any hard evidence for a Reform surge in by-elections at the constituency/local government level. To be taken with a gritter’s worth of salt.

That isn't the polling which needs to be taken with a load of salt though (just regular levels) - it's the laughable 'analysis' from the Telegraph. The Tories winning 96 seats without Reform is entirely an invention of the Telegraph, not YouGov.

[EastAnglianLefty]

YouGov's statement is worth a read: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48371-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-would-win-1997-style-landslide-if-election-were-held-today

Effectively it accuses the Telegraph of deliberately misreporting the poll.

[Harry Hayfield]

YouGov's statement is worth a read: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48371-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-would-win-1997-style-landslide-if-election-were-held-today

Effectively it accuses the Telegraph of deliberately misreporting the poll.

Plaid on 50% in Ynys Môn, reasonable, Plaid on 15% in Caerfyrddin, unreasonable
Labour on 21% in Aberdeenshire North, unreasonable, Labour on 28% in Dundee Central, reasonable

MRP does not do the SNP or Plaid any favours, therefore the Scottish and Welsh calculations need to be taken with a pinch of salt

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Plaid on 50% in Ynys Môn, reasonable

No it's not, they've never even got close to that there.

[YL]

Note that the sample size here is around 14,000. This is rather lower than the sample sizes YouGov used for their big MRPs in 2017 and 2019, and more like the sample size used for other pollsters' MRPs. While it does actually seem to me to have fewer oddities than many MRPs I've seen, at that sample size it's not going to be able to actually pick up constituency level effects.

In particular, its sample size in areas where Plaid are a genuine factor is likely to be very small indeed, so I would take its figures for them with a massive pinch of salt. For similar reasons, I would be a bit sceptical that the Greens are really on the verge of taking the lead in Bristol Central, though I wouldn't be astonished if that turned out to be right.

[MABA 2020]

New MRP poll (sample size: 14,000) published by YouGov, with the following seat projections:

• Labour: 385
• Conservative: 169
• Lib Dem: 48
• SNP: 25
• Plaid Cymru: 3
• Green: 1

_{Via the Telegraph (Note: both 2024 and 2019 maps use the new boundaries).}

This could be a lot worst for the Tories

[DL]

The map seems to show Labour winning the Isle of Wight...don't they usually get single digits there and its more of a Tory/Lib Dem marginal

[Pericles]

Isaac Levido reportedly told Tory MPs that the public are "looking for reasons to vote for us".

I'm f**king dying LMAO.

[Harlow]

The map seems to show Labour winning the Isle of Wight...don't they usually get single digits there and its more of a Tory/Lib Dem marginal

Hasn't been a Lib Dem stronghold in a while. The last time the Lib Dems got over 10% of the vote was in 2010. Second place in the last three elections has been UKIP -> Labour -> Labour, and the Lib Dems didn't have a candidate there in 2019. The Greens have performed relatively well there lately, too.

[JimJamUK]

As always, an MRP with a large Labour lead will find Labour winning in places that initially look very unrealistic. If you assume the Labour lead will reduce by the election, then so will the ‘unbelievable’ Labour gains.

[adma]

This seems to be based on the assumption that voters fit into neat and tidy categories (both in a voting sense and in a general outlook sense) of 'left/progressive/etc' and 'right/conservative etc'. The Progressive Alliance lot on social media make pretty much the same assumption. It is known, however, from various preferential and ranked-choice voting systems (both here and elsewhere) that many voters don't fit into such categories.

This point needs to be made to those who have a moan about the lines of "OMG if left-wing party B had stood down then left-wing party A would have won" when there is a result under FPTP of something like:

Right-wing party - 49%
Left-wing party A - 28%
Left-wing party B - 23%

The result under a preferential system would probably be something like 54-46% in favour of the right-wing party.

Obviously Reform could cost the Tories some seats, but 100-odd is absurd even if they do poll 10% or more (and that's very doubtful).   

That fallacy is *soooo* Canadian (i.e. the whole Lib/NDP "unite-the-left" argument)

[adma]

The map seems to show Labour winning the Isle of Wight...don't they usually get single digits there and its more of a Tory/Lib Dem marginal

Hasn't been a Lib Dem stronghold in a while. The last time the Lib Dems got over 10% of the vote was in 2010. Second place in the last three elections has been UKIP -> Labour -> Labour, and the Lib Dems didn't have a candidate there in 2019. The Greens have performed relatively well there lately, too.

One *does* wonder what might happen if the Lib Dems *do* have candidates there, given the party's base otherwise (i.e. on a local council level)--unless as per recent trends, the Greens are poised to serve as their parliamentary proxy.  (Indeed, I can picture IoW as one of those places where no candidate gets 1/3 or even 30% of the vote)

[oldtimer]

As always, an MRP with a large Labour lead will find Labour winning in places that initially look very unrealistic. If you assume the Labour lead will reduce by the election, then so will the ‘unbelievable’ Labour gains.

MRP is supposed to replicate the BBC Exit Poll, the aim is the number of seats not particular seats.

[Harry Hayfield]

As always, an MRP with a large Labour lead will find Labour winning in places that initially look very unrealistic. If you assume the Labour lead will reduce by the election, then so will the ‘unbelievable’ Labour gains.

I am reminded of this from Election 1997. Start of the campaign, Labour 51%, Conservatives 22%. Election Night Exit Poll: Labour 44%, Conservatives 29%, Actual Result: Labour 43%, Conservatives 31%

[YL]

The "official" Rallings and Thrasher notionals have been published this morning. There's a spreadsheet here with full details by constituency and the Guardian has a map where you can find individual constituencies.

For those familiar with elections in countries which make full detail of results available rather than just publishing a constituency level aggregate, remember the disclaimer that these are based on modelling of how individual wards would have voted using local election results, not actual polling district or ward level results from 2019. In one case, Wolverhampton South East, we actually know that the "official notional" is wrong, because those two councils did make ward level results available and these show that it was narrowly Conservative.

[IceAgeComing]

The map seems to show Labour winning the Isle of Wight...don't they usually get single digits there and its more of a Tory/Lib Dem marginal

Hasn't been a Lib Dem stronghold in a while. The last time the Lib Dems got over 10% of the vote was in 2010. Second place in the last three elections has been UKIP -> Labour -> Labour, and the Lib Dems didn't have a candidate there in 2019. The Greens have performed relatively well there lately, too.

The Lib Dems stood down on the Isle of Wight to back the Greens who've become stronger on the Island; as part of an anti-Brexit strategic voting campaign. The Green vote fell so it clearly didn't work - although interesting Labour's vote share actually increased in 2019 on 2017; and was actually Labour's best election since 1966 which is before the Liberals broke through for the first time and became the default opposition candidate. The Lib Dems do have a stronger councillor base (admittedly entirely through local by-elections and defections) and I suspect might be the 'tactical' choice for some people there that remember the Lib Dems winning it; but Labour are doing better than they historically have.

[CumbrianLefty]

Worth pointing out at this point that in contrast to 2019, the LibDems will be fighting every GB seat at the next GE (maybe the only exception being the Speaker's seat, at most a handful of others)

It is also likely the Greens will come closer than ever before to a full slate, too. And if they don't make some grubby deal with the Tories again, Reform may yet outdo UKIP's 2015 showing as well.

Good chance that the large majority of seats will have at least 5 options to choose from (if not 6 with Scotland and Wales) This would be a new record and interesting to observe.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I read that YouGov/Lord Frost MRP as an admission that the Conservative Party is completely cooked. Even if they are just using it as motivated reasoning to push for more right-wing policy, when the best that all the spin in the world can produce (see Telegraph "analysis") is a hung Parliament with Labour safely ahead, they must know it's over.

[Harlow]

It is also likely the Greens will come closer than ever before to a full slate, too.

A full slate is their stated ambition, at the very least.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-67914916

[Pericles]

I found this article to be a decently informative take on boundary changes. It's got good maps of target seats and some useful demographic statistics.

These two sets of graphs show how the target seats for Labour and the LibDems compare to the national average (the axis is the percentage point difference with the national average). Usefully, the target seats have also been grouped into three different categories. The information is unsurprising, but useful to have quantified.


Obviously it's hard to know if demographic polling data is accurate yet, but this graph here could also help predict trends.

As for issue importance, the economy is overwhelmingly the top priority with all demographics. Immigration appears to have edged out the others for a distant second. In any case, the government has extremely poor approval ratings on all the issues and on almost all rates worse than Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, BES data. It's, frankly, more than a bit crap and really only carries on because it has for so long, but the general direction of travel is probably about right even if the actual numbers themselves are not to be trusted.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1747751843453604071?s=20