United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[Wiswylfen]

It is worth repeating, for those unfamiliar with British politics and polling, that the Reform % in polling is far ahead of what it actually is, as repeated poor by-election results have shown. These are the by-elections since their jump in the polls in late 2022, followed by the by-elections following UKIP's rise in the polls and their results in those against the 2015 GE result.


Constituency; UKIP 2015; Reform by-election

City of Chester; 8.1%; 2.7%
Stretford and Urmston; 10.9%; 3.5%
West Lancashire; 12.2%; 4.4%
Selby and Ainsty; 14.0%; 3.7%
Somerton and Frome; 10.7%; 3.4%
Rutherglen and Hamilton West; 2.3%; 1.3%
Mid Bedfordshire; 15.4%; 3.7%
Tamworth; 18.5%; 5.4%


Constituency; UKIP by-election; UKIP 2015

Eastleigh; 27.8%; 15.8%
South Shields; 24.2%; 22.0%
Wythenshawe and Sale East; 18.0%; 14.7%
Newark; 25.9%; 12.0%
Clacton; 59.7%; 44.4%
Heywood and Middleton; 38.7%; 32.2%
Rochester and Strood; 42.1%; 30.5%


Something's just not adding up.

[YL]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1744656534208909536

As the graph helpfully included there shows, the vote share changes are within the normal range of fluctuations in YouGov polls, so I wouldn't read much into those, but that should hardly be much comfort for the Government.

If you look at the trend lines on the plot on Wikipedia's article on the polls, then it's fair to say that for some time Labour have been in the low to mid 40s, the Tories in the mid to high 20s (more like mid at the moment) and the Lib Dems around 10% or so, with not much change.  There has been a definite recent increase in the reported Reform shares, and while I am sceptical that the polls are reporting their share correctly for the reasons given by Eadmund, I suspect they genuinely have picked up a bit of support in the last couple of months.  (How Wellingborough fits the pattern will be interesting to see, but they've said they're not standing in Kingswood.)

[CumbrianLefty]

Re my comment yesterday about the 1992 GE - worth bearing in mind that it is now longer ago than Labour's previous big win (1966) was in 1997. And yes it *did* seem like pretty ancient history then - indeed when Major prayed the 1970 contest in aid during the 1992 campaign when claiming that the Tories could still win, the general response was "wasn't that a long time ago now?"

Given that, the collective hold it still has over much of the media and politicians of all parties really is quite remarkable - and its maybe worth some political thinker looking into as to exactly *why* this is the case. Especially since there is a much more recent election where the Tories defied the polls and the pundit consensus, but that doesn't seem to be hopefully invoked anything like as much.

[TheTide]

Re my comment yesterday about the 1992 GE - worth bearing in mind that it is now longer ago than Labour's previous big win (1966) was in 1997. And yes it *did* seem like pretty ancient history then - indeed when Major prayed the 1970 contest in aid during the 1992 campaign when claiming that the Tories could still win, the general response was "wasn't that a long time ago now?"

Given that, the collective hold it still has over much of the media and politicians of all parties really is quite remarkable - and its maybe worth some political thinker looking into as to exactly *why* this is the case. Especially since there is a much more recent election where the Tories defied the polls and the pundit consensus, but that doesn't seem to be hopefully invoked anything like as much.

The main players in 1992 were I think more charming than those of 2015. And both major parties have more reasons to not want to dwell on 2015. I'd say the highly inaccurate exit polls also help in terms of making it particularly iconic.

[Coldstream]

It is worth repeating, for those unfamiliar with British politics and polling, that the Reform % in polling is far ahead of what it actually is, as repeated poor by-election results have shown. These are the by-elections since their jump in the polls in late 2022, followed by the by-elections following UKIP's rise in the polls and their results in those against the 2015 GE result.


Constituency; UKIP 2015; Reform by-election

City of Chester; 8.1%; 2.7%
Stretford and Urmston; 10.9%; 3.5%
West Lancashire; 12.2%; 4.4%
Selby and Ainsty; 14.0%; 3.7%
Somerton and Frome; 10.7%; 3.4%
Rutherglen and Hamilton West; 2.3%; 1.3%
Mid Bedfordshire; 15.4%; 3.7%
Tamworth; 18.5%; 5.4%


Constituency; UKIP by-election; UKIP 2015

Eastleigh; 27.8%; 15.8%
South Shields; 24.2%; 22.0%
Wythenshawe and Sale East; 18.0%; 14.7%
Newark; 25.9%; 12.0%
Clacton; 59.7%; 44.4%
Heywood and Middleton; 38.7%; 32.2%
Rochester and Strood; 42.1%; 30.5%


Something's just not adding up.

I do think there’s something to the idea that Reform voters are the least likely to turn out in general, and therefore least likely to turn out in a by-election or local election. And this is compounded by Reform having no ground operation to speak of.

And I also think a lot of people who might have voted UKIP 13-15 are probably (back) voting Labour now. Whereas the Reform vote probably has a lot more ex-Tories in it? Even people who stuck with her Tories 13-15. The main polling difference between 13-15 & 22-24 has to be the weakness of the Tories vs strength of Labour.

But it would be good to have some actual analysis done.

[somerandomth]

The main players in 1992 were I think more charming than those of 2015. And both major parties have more reasons to not want to dwell on 2015. I'd say the highly inaccurate exit polls also help in terms of making it particularly iconic.

Tbf the exit poll wasn't actually that bad - it did get the general idea of Conservatives going to form government, SNP landslide in Scotland and Labour doing worse than expected. By far the opinion polls were a lot worse than the exit poll during 2015.

[YL]

The main players in 1992 were I think more charming than those of 2015. And both major parties have more reasons to not want to dwell on 2015. I'd say the highly inaccurate exit polls also help in terms of making it particularly iconic.

Tbf the exit poll wasn't actually that bad - it did get the general idea of Conservatives going to form government, SNP landslide in Scotland and Labour doing worse than expected. By far the opinion polls were a lot worse than the exit poll during 2015.

I think the inaccurate exit poll referred to here is the 1992 one.

[somerandomth]

The main players in 1992 were I think more charming than those of 2015. And both major parties have more reasons to not want to dwell on 2015. I'd say the highly inaccurate exit polls also help in terms of making it particularly iconic.

Tbf the exit poll wasn't actually that bad - it did get the general idea of Conservatives going to form government, SNP landslide in Scotland and Labour doing worse than expected. By far the opinion polls were a lot worse than the exit poll during 2015.

I think the inaccurate exit poll referred to here is the 1992 one.

Oopsie yeah the 1992 exit poll was a complete mess I'll give you that one lol

[YL]

Anyway, regarding 1992, here is Wikipedia's plot of the polls before that election:

(from here).

So, yes, Labour developed a big lead in the reported polls by early 1990, roughly comparable to the lead now (though with both parties higher). But it was fairly short-lived and it evaporated completely in November 1990, when there was a rather significant change in the UK political scene. After that the Tories actually took the lead for a few months; Labour did re-take the lead in the run-up to the election, but they were never more than a handful of points ahead. The coming election is unlikely to be "just like 1992 again" because in its analogue to November 1990 the Tories chose Liz Truss as their new leader.

Of course, there was also the polling error, but a polling error of comparable size on current polls wouldn't be keeping Sunak in Downing Street.

There was of course a UK election where a party with a substantial lead and expectations of a landslide blew it in the campaign and ended up in a hung Parliament, but the Tories aren't so keen on talking about that one for some reason.  (It was mentioned in a recent Guardian article about Labour trying to dampen expectations, though.)

[Harlow]

George Osborne claims he has inside info the election is being planned for November 14th.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/11/general-election-likely-to-take-place-on-14-november-says-george-osborne

Not sure why it's being so dragged out, if this is true. The result will essentially be a done deal at this point. Whatever keeps the Tories in power for whatever time they have left, I guess.

[Mike88]

George Osborne claims he has inside info the election is being planned for November 14th.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/11/general-election-likely-to-take-place-on-14-november-says-george-osborne

Not sure why it's being so dragged out, if this is true. The result will essentially be a done deal at this point. Whatever keeps the Tories in power for whatever time they have left, I guess.

I think that someone wrote, I believe in the Internation discussion thread, that the "plan" is banking on a Trump's win in the US election and then the Tories would campaign on the "stability card" in face of unprecedented times to win the election. Of course, this has one major risk: Trump could lose and then what? What's your pitch, Tories?

[Harlow]

George Osborne claims he has inside info the election is being planned for November 14th.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/11/general-election-likely-to-take-place-on-14-november-says-george-osborne

Not sure why it's being so dragged out, if this is true. The result will essentially be a done deal at this point. Whatever keeps the Tories in power for whatever time they have left, I guess.

I think that someone wrote, I believe in the Internation discussion thread, that the "plan" is banking on a Trump's win in the US election and then the Tories would campaign on the "stability card" in face of unprecedented times to win the election. Of course, this has one major risk: Trump could lose and then what? What's your pitch, Tories?

But also, the idea that they would have any claim to the "stability card" at this point is laughable. Continuity =/= stability and I feel the vast majority of the British public understand that at this point.

[OSR stands with Israel]

George Osborne claims he has inside info the election is being planned for November 14th.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/11/general-election-likely-to-take-place-on-14-november-says-george-osborne

Not sure why it's being so dragged out, if this is true. The result will essentially be a done deal at this point. Whatever keeps the Tories in power for whatever time they have left, I guess.

I think that someone wrote, I believe in the Internation discussion thread, that the "plan" is banking on a Trump's win in the US election and then the Tories would campaign on the "stability card" in face of unprecedented times to win the election. Of course, this has one major risk: Trump could lose and then what? What's your pitch, Tories?

Also the idea a Trump win would benefit them is lol worthy. The main reason Trump would win is due to bad fundamentals overall which are much much worse in the UK than the US so if Biden is losing so is Sunak

[Oryxslayer]

George Osborne claims he has inside info the election is being planned for November 14th.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/11/general-election-likely-to-take-place-on-14-november-says-george-osborne

Not sure why it's being so dragged out, if this is true. The result will essentially be a done deal at this point. Whatever keeps the Tories in power for whatever time they have left, I guess.

I think that someone wrote, I believe in the Internation discussion thread, that the "plan" is banking on a Trump's win in the US election and then the Tories would campaign on the "stability card" in face of unprecedented times to win the election. Of course, this has one major risk: Trump could lose and then what? What's your pitch, Tories?

But also, the idea that they would have any claim to the "stability card" at this point is laughable. Continuity =/= stability and I feel the vast majority of the British public understand that at this point.

Continuity and stability are interesting in this contest because the Conservatives have for a decade tied the two together. This of course is because from the time of the coalition until a year ago, Labour couldn't get a poll that put them in reliable majority territory on their own. So they would need to invite in support from others whose views towards the large English population range from anathema to hostility. "Another coalition of chaos," they would say. So in addition to the classic motivator of "if it ain't broke don't fix it" the Tories were able to bind it together with fear of just how much it would break,  based on the legacy of the coalition.  

But now the situation is broken, and Labour will win a majority barring a 15 point swing at least from where polls are. So it seems like a case of Tories being too deep in the tunnel to realize their messaging has no merit anymore.

[YL]

George Osborne claims he has inside info the election is being planned for November 14th.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/11/general-election-likely-to-take-place-on-14-november-says-george-osborne

Not sure why it's being so dragged out, if this is true. The result will essentially be a done deal at this point. Whatever keeps the Tories in power for whatever time they have left, I guess.

It's what governments who think they are going to lose tend to do. I suppose it's a combination of trying to enjoy the trappings of power for as long as possible and hoping that something will turn up.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's also the earliest possible polling date that lets Sunak have two years as Prime Minister, without having the election day fall on Halloween or the week of the US election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

George Osborne claims he has inside info the election is being planned for November 14th.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/11/general-election-likely-to-take-place-on-14-november-says-george-osborne

Not sure why it's being so dragged out, if this is true. The result will essentially be a done deal at this point. Whatever keeps the Tories in power for whatever time they have left, I guess.

It's what governments who think they are going to lose tend to do. I suppose it's a combination of trying to enjoy the trappings of power for as long as possible and hoping that something will turn up.

There might also be the pay to consider. The British shadow ministry doesn't get an extra salary allowance, so by lasting in office for an extra 12 months Tory Cabinet ministers make an extra £70,000, Ministers of State £31,000 and Under-Secretaries £22,000. Everyone except Rishi and the whips drop back to the base rate MP's salary when they inevitably return to opposition.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1744656534208909536

Just to compare and contrast:


source

 

[Joe Republic]

What happened in 1993 to cause the Lib Dems to briefly push the Tories into third place?

[CumbrianLefty]

Big byelection wins in Newbury and Christchurch were surely part of it.

[Torrain]

New MRP poll (sample size: 14,000) published by YouGov, with the following seat projections:

• Labour: 385
• Conservative: 169
• Lib Dem: 48
• SNP: 25
• Plaid Cymru: 3
• Green: 1

_{Via the Telegraph (Note: both 2024 and 2019 maps use the new boundaries).}

[TheTide]

New MRP poll (sample size: 14,000) published by YouGov, with the following seat projections:

• Labour: 385
• Conservative: 169
• Lib Dem: 48
• SNP: 25
• Plaid Cymru: 3
• Green: 1

_{Via the Telegraph (Note: both 2024 and 2019 maps use the new boundaries).}

The striking thing about this is that, even though the Tory seat number is considerably better than what many standard voting intention polls are currently suggesting, the Lib Dem seat number is higher than what the modelling for many of those said VI polls shows. Also, the strength of the SNP and the weakness of Scottish Labour compared to the 1990s keep it from being almost identical to 1997 in terms of seat numbers.

Red IoW too!

[Torrain]

Labour Isle of Wight seems to be a thing in MRP, I’m sure that happened last time a major MRP was published too - I think the results in 2019 (UKIP and the Lib Dems both stood down, skewing the vote totals) messes with the projection?

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think also that the demographics of most of the East seat and the more urbanised bits of the West seat are fairly working-class, it's just that there isn't a Labour tradition there in the way that there is in most demographically similar areas of England.

[IceAgeComing]

Ought to note that this doesn't factor in tactical voting apparently so it could be even worse for the Tories than this.

Some quite remarkable seats stated to fall especially in the South: including both seats in Worthing (East Worthing isn't that surprising considering Labour had it within 10% in 2017 and actually held up well in 2019: West Worthing is safe Tory at the moment); both seats in Bournemouth and most remarkably to me both seats on the Isle of Wight; where the Tory majority for the current single seat is 32%. This could be a sign of duff data obviously but what is quite interesting is that across all of these seats (assuming the trends on the Island are fairly consistent across the Island which I'd be inclined to think they are; its a pretty homogenous place) the trends are remarkably consistent; the Lib Dems collapse in 2015 with votes scattering all over the place plus UKIP getting a decent chunk of votes; then in 2017 the UKIP vote disappears; the Conservatives increase but Labour jump quite significantly and then in 2019 when Labour fell back quick significantly across the country they held up (vote actually increased in the Isle of Wight).

The Isle of Wight one feels weird and is one that gets called out in these but I actually sort of see it: while there are traditional links to the Conservatives and its not historically a place Labour has done well its also in the decline typical with a lot of these seaside resorts - less people visit as tourists; the last few Council admins (Conservative 2005-13 and 2017-21; 2013-17 was an Independent group mostly made up of ex-Lib Dems; 2021-now is a mix of Independents and the Greens) have cut back heavily on spending on tourist facilities because like all councils they have no money which has made things worse; poverty is a big problem; no one can afford to buy houses locally so kids of Islanders are sucked up the mainland; and those that do live locally have to deal with the ferry company duopoly which is incredibly expensive if you want to take your car anywhere (which is sort of required on the Island). I think there's a similar story to a lot of these seaside areas: they're either gentrifying which brings in Labour/Green as the increasing party; or they've been in decline for so long that they aren't really natural Tory spots either (probably Labour/Reform/Lib Dem); or both. I have family links there and there are bits that have declined so much in the last ten-fifteen years where its just incredibly sad: Sandown is the prime example of this.

I guess the counter for the Isle of Wight is that the local Labour Party isn't exactly big and doesn't have that big an activist base - they have one Councillor while the Greens have two and the Lib Dems 4 (plus I suspect the independent councillors include a few hidden Lib Dem types); and the latter have both made local by-election gains and have held the seat in the past while Labour never have. Its one I'll keep an eye on for sure.