United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[Harry Hayfield]

Following the announcement yesterday that the Chancellor will hold his Spring Budget on March 6th 2024, and the comments by the Shadow Secretary of State for International Trade today that a "May election was the worst kept secret in Parliament", there is a general feeling that 2024 will be an election year in the United Kingdom.

However, despite this there is as of December 28th, no indication of the formal publication of the notional calculations for the 2019 general election on the new boundaries created by the passage of the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, therefore no one is in a position to say what impact a Labour lead of 20% would have on an election, save that it represents a 16% swing from Conservative to Labour since 2019.

[Conservatopia]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.



Harry, have you been selected for anywhere yet? You should definitely run again.

[JimJamUK]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.

Given your politics, presumably standing would help rather than hurt her?
Have Reform got anything to offer a prospective candidate such as yourself (pay for the deposit, activists to campaign etc)?

[Conservatopia]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.

Given your politics, presumably standing would help rather than hurt her?
Have Reform got anything to offer a prospective candidate such as yourself (pay for the deposit, activists to campaign etc)?

Yes but I currently use my relationship with the local MPs to get tickets into the gallery at PMQs - would I still be able to do that if I stood against her and she won? Then again do I want to watch PMQs if Starmer's PM and some weirdo like Jenrick's LOTO next year?

I don't want to sound like I'm bragging but money isn't an issue and I have more willing friends locally than Reform has activists. The only advantage Reform has is that they (allegedly) stole a list of (alleged) email and (alleged) physical addresses from the (alleged) local Tory party when somebody (allegedly) defected.

I think it's an interesting phenomenon that across the world it seems people will have a better chance by running with "Independent" after their name than if they run for a minor party or start their own party.

[Harry Hayfield]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.



Harry, have you been selected for anywhere yet? You should definitely run again.

I have expressed an interest in standing for the Greens, but so far that is all I have done, it is now down to them to decide whether my standing has merit or not.

[President Johnson]

I was suspecting the election won't happen until January 2025, so that the Tories drag it out as long as possible. It would be interesting if the election happened around the same time as the US presidential election.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I was suspecting the election won't happen until January 2025, so that the Tories drag it out as long as possible. It would be interesting if the election happened around the same time as the US presidential election.

Apparently Sunak may call an election in October in hopes that more people in the UK are paying attention to the US campaign than the UK one. Issue is that would just benefit whatever party is ahead in the polls, which currently is Labour.

[Oryxslayer]

I was suspecting the election won't happen until January 2025, so that the Tories drag it out as long as possible. It would be interesting if the election happened around the same time as the US presidential election.

Everyone knows that it's foolish to drag yourself along for only say 3-4 extra months when compared to say fall 2024. This is cause winter brings traveling,  holidays,  and snow in a number of areas. All things that would impede a campaign. Nobody wants to haveto vote in the cold when there are alternatives.  The NHS like clockwork also finds itself under strain during winter, leading to deflated perceptions of the government party.

There at present are two dates in everyone's minds. The first is May, after the budget and coinciding with the locals. This is preferred by everyone outside of power for a variety of reasons,  but local governments especially would like saving the money.  The stall option is seemingly October, which Sunak suggested as an option a few weeks back.

[YL]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.

Harry, have you been selected for anywhere yet? You should definitely run again.

Reform UK apparently already have candidates in both Filton & Bradley Stoke and Thornbury & Yate.  Bristol Central is still available

(Lists of selected candidates, maintained by Owain Sutton of Vote UK)

[mileslunn]

Probably in 2024 also as isn't the latest in early January 2025 and that would mean a campaign over Christmas holidays which I don't think most want.  My guess is Labour wins but polls tighten and Tories still get about 1/3 of popular vote as many traditional supporters come home, but not enough to save them.  However I still suspect most rural constituencies stay blue but they lose most urban, suburban and mixed urban/rural including even some posh seats in London they always win.  Maybe over simplifying but my guess is any constituency that includes an urban area over 50K turns red, doesn't stays blue.  Obviously exceptions but I think tipping point in size of community will be around 50K not 500k like it was in 2019 and most Brits live in communities over 50K (I include go by entire built up area not local government) whereas only about 1/3 live in urban areas over 500k.

[TheTide]

This might be a reasonable argument for a May general election.

Since the October 1964 general election, the only general elections that were held outside of spring and early summer were the two held in 1974 (February and October) and 2019 (December). These were held under exceptional circumstances. Of course devolved elections are held in May.

It would look odd (to put it euphemistically) to many if there wasn't a general election in or around May when the Parliament is four and a half years old. Hence Labour's strategy of, it seems, basically going around telling everyone that it's going to be in May. This has already been picked up by parts of the media, including parts that aren't particularly friendly to Labour. If the speculation is really rampant in March (when the budget is being set out) then what exactly can the Tories do in response? Keeping quiet, which many will take as confirmation that the election is imminent, or saying "we aren't planning to hold it in the next two months, but in the meantime here are a load of local elections (which are being held on a day in which a general election might be expected to take place)"?

Major (for example) in 1992-1997 didn't have this problem as the 'normal' month of May happened to coincide with the maximum length of the Parliament.

[mileslunn]

Unlike some, I think Labour wins majority although not guaranteed, but I believe they will fall short of 400 seats and I think Tories likely to lose but still win around 200 seats (which for them is really bad).  Now true possible it is an off the charts landslide but lets remember Labour at times in 2008 and 2009 was in even worse shape yet while lost in 2010, they rallied back much of their traditional support.  Reason I think this happens is you have some lifelong Tories who feel party needs to lose, but at same time cannot stomach voting Labour so once clear they will lose, that sort of gives them permission to return home.

[MABA 2020]

Would love the election to be May, but there isn't really any reason for Sunak to go earlier than he really needs to. It'll be October/November, right on top of the US election.

[adma]

Unlike some, I think Labour wins majority although not guaranteed, but I believe they will fall short of 400 seats and I think Tories likely to lose but still win around 200 seats (which for them is really bad).  Now true possible it is an off the charts landslide but lets remember Labour at times in 2008 and 2009 was in even worse shape yet while lost in 2010, they rallied back much of their traditional support.  Reason I think this happens is you have some lifelong Tories who feel party needs to lose, but at same time cannot stomach voting Labour so once clear they will lose, that sort of gives them permission to return home.

It also depends on what role the Lib Dems play--they were part of the 1-2 punch against the Tories in '97, but they were also victims of Labour "homecoming" (as well as the Tories as government-in-waiting) in '10...

[patzer]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.

In my opinion your best shot would be going for Reform and hoping that Farage returning/Sunak's unpopularity causes Reform to overtake the Tories in the polls like they did in 2019.

[Pericles]

The Tories have to have been through the worst parliament for any government (and the nation too unfortunately) in modern times. Even they're waiting to be put out of their misery.

[Flyersfan232]

The Tories have to have been through the worst parliament for any government (and the nation too unfortunately) in modern times. Even they're waiting to be put out of their misery.

this get more embarrassing when yo realize they have a 80 seat majority

[Harry Hayfield]

Based on the statement made by the Prime Minister today, my personal belief is that the election will be held on October 10th 2024, the election called on the day that Parliament returns after the summer recess with that recess being used by the Conservatives to campaign on the quiet in a last ditch attempt to close the Labour lead https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67871404

[Blair]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.

Given your politics, presumably standing would help rather than hurt her?
Have Reform got anything to offer a prospective candidate such as yourself (pay for the deposit, activists to campaign etc)?

Yes but I currently use my relationship with the local MPs to get tickets into the gallery at PMQs - would I still be able to do that if I stood against her and she won? Then again do I want to watch PMQs if Starmer's PM and some weirdo like Jenrick's LOTO next year?

I don't want to sound like I'm bragging but money isn't an issue and I have more willing friends locally than Reform has activists. The only advantage Reform has is that they (allegedly) stole a list of (alleged) email and (alleged) physical addresses from the (alleged) local Tory party when somebody (allegedly) defected.

I think it's an interesting phenomenon that across the world it seems people will have a better chance by running with "Independent" after their name than if they run for a minor party or start their own party.

Running as an independent is difficult as you have to do all the legal processes yourself- getting enough nominations to get on the ballot, finding a way to design, print, pay for and deliver leaflets and then finding a credible set of local issues to run on; if you want to run as a paper candidate apply for the Tories will make you stand in an ultra safe seat or reform as you say- who might be more open to letting you stand in a neighbouring seat.

[CumbrianLefty]

Based on the statement made by the Prime Minister today, my personal belief is that the election will be held on October 10th 2024, the election called on the day that Parliament returns after the summer recess with that recess being used by the Conservatives to campaign on the quiet in a last ditch attempt to close the Labour lead https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67871404

I can see a few pretty obvious flaws with this cunning plan tbh.

[oldtimer]

The Tories have to have been through the worst parliament for any government (and the nation too unfortunately) in modern times. Even they're waiting to be put out of their misery.

this get more embarrassing when yo realize they have a 80 seat majority

It makes more sense if you think 2019 was an abberation created by one crisis and 2024 as an abberation created by another crisis.

In 2019 the solution was simple, a Yes or No answer to Brexit.

Now the solution to this crisis is more complex, it requires reforms and the present Conservatives are too lazy to push for reform.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1744656534208909536

[CumbrianLefty]

Only yesterday, Tory MPs were briefing client hacks that "it feels just like 1992 again".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is worth noting that polling in the runup to the 1997 GE was ruthlessly, brutally accurate on the Conservative vote. The Labour leads were generally too large, but that was because it was difficult at the time to get a handle on the exact balance between Labour and smaller opposition parties, such was the level of tactical voting.

That isn't to say that I think you can take an especially dire poll for the government (as this one is) and declare that the Con vote at the GE will be +/- 2pts of what it shows, it is just that I would be a bit more obviously concerned than we're seeing much of from government MPs or the broadly pro-government bits of the media landscape.

[Pericles]

Haven't most of the smarter MPs already given up hope?