Spanish elections and politics IV / European Parliament campaign, diplomatic crisis with Argentina

[CumbrianLefty]

Now looking like Sanchez might not resign after all, maybe he has also realised how this gives every impression of being a nakedly politically motivated stunt from some distinctly shady people?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Now looking like Sanchez might not resign after all, maybe he has also realised how this gives every impression of being a nakedly politically motivated stunt from some distinctly shady people?

Watching the news this morning, the analysts were saying "This can't help him politically, so it must be because of the personal toll on him and his wife." I'm inclined to believe that, because Pedro Sanchez is a lifelong politician, it's been his job for his whole life. If he's making a decision like this which is not the most politically astute option (and he has shown himself to have great instincts), it must actually be a personal mental health situation behind it.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Lol. Adrián Barbón (the president of Asturias) was on TV this morning saying that Pedro "usually replies to my WhatsApp messages quickly, I checked in on him yesterday and he still hasn't read the message." Such drama

[Mike88]

There seems to be no case, as the Prosecutor is asking for the case to be closed.

Maybe this a "cleaver political move" by Sanchéz. To be fair, I don't like him at all, but I acknowledge that he's an "inteligent chess player" and this move, in a period where he's way down in the polls, could be a kind of "reset" in order for all these attacks to backfire on his opponents, as they hit on a personal level. We'll see on Monday.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

The right-wing organization that brought forward the complaint admitted it was based on fake news. Are we sure Manos Limpias is not leftist, cause they are helping to advance the dreaded Sanchismo more than any of the socios de gobierno have done in the last year!

https://twitter.com/el_pais/status/1783403717812682796

Translation: BREAKING NEWS | Manos Limpias admits the possibility that their complaint is based on fake news

The story goes on to explain that Manos Limpias intended for actual facts to be discovered by the judiciary. What a joke

[Antonio the Sixth]

so this organization is basically the Spanish Project Veritas?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

so this organization is basically the Spanish Project Veritas?

Yes, their leader (and the person who actually filed the complaint) was a politician (or a wannabe politician, more accurately) in the 90s working with Spain's own wannabe Jean-Marie Le Pen. Actual Spaniards could fill in the blanks of course

[Logical]

Trust the plan Sanxe bros

[Velasco]

I think this time there’s no "master plan" and Sánchez simply said "enough is enough".

The corruption allegations against his wife are absolutely baseless and even 'Manos Limpias' admitted the accusations are mere press cuttings (fake news from reactionary fake media, to be precise). The far-right organization 'Manos Limpias 'is anything but clean, while the judge who did not dismiss the proceedings is the father of a PP councilor in Pozuelo de Alarcón (an affluent town near Madrid) and likely he's prevaricating.

The particular circumstances surrounding this case are different,  but I can't help but thinking about António Costa. In the case of Spain there are turbulent and disturbing signals comong from elements within the judiciary and other institutions - apparently certain people didn't accept the election results and is seeking to make this government fall by other means. I'm not saying these particular allegations are part of an orchestrated plan, rather I tend to think there's a strained environment that favors they are taken into consideration. But certainly fake news and personal attacks on certain politicians and their close relatives are orchestrated and have a clear purpose. Pedro Sánchez in particular has been demonized by right-wing media since he came to power and her wife has been slandered by the vile haters

You may think this is an exxageration, but many well informed people share the percepción those
elements could be perpetrating something like a "soft coup d'etat". Additionally we must remember there's a poisoned political battle around the renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary,  blocked by the PP since five years ago. Above everything there's a fierce opposition to the Amnesty Law, which contradicts the aim to implement an exemplary punishment on separatists shared by people within the judicial and political circles.

It is well documented at this point there existed orchestrated campaigns trying to damage, discredit and incriminate the leaders of Podemos or the pro-independence movement in Catalonia. Dozens of fabricated accusations were filed against Podemos and all of them proved to be false. Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero were bullied by far-right protesters standing in front of their home. Living under that pressure and unsufferable harassment is an exorbitant price to pay and no one can resist indefinetely - in the case of Pablo Iglesias and Podemos, lawfare and bullying have clearly soured their tempers.

Madrid premier Ayuso claims to be a victim of vicious attacks herself. The main difference between her case and that of Pedro Sánchez is that there's no actual case against the wife of Pedro Sánchez,  while Ayuso's partner acknowledged in a letter released by media having committed tax fraud. Besides, this is not the first case involving Ayuso's inner circle and family.

Pedro Sánchez is not perfect, but at this point I'm certain there's not a single one politician during the last decades with more audacity and political instinct, as well he's been one of the most underrated. Historical circunstances place him as our main bulwark against reactionary forces. Right now he's our best possible PM, I stand with him and hope he will stay.

[Velasco]

Latest CEO poll released today

https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1783848807236583477?t=ivJLOaA2BTWWj6c-r...

[Mike88]

It could be that the personal strain is now becoming too much, Velasco, but one cannot put aside the "perfect" timing of all of this, if Sanchéz wants to rebound from the last complicated months: Catalonia elections in two weeks, which could give PSC a strong result; An Opposition that "throws" a lot of stones but that has glass ceilings also; And who knows, "restart" the falling PSOE EP election campaign.

[Velasco]

According to Estefania Molina, right-wing parties and conservative elements within the PSOE will never forgive Pedro Sánchez. They claim Sánchez is selling out Spain dealing with its enemies, either separatists or rhe enemies of the 'regime of 1978'. However, the consequences of his policies have been the opposite - Podemos has became marginal and irrelevant, while pro-independence parties in Catalonia are weakened. In sum, Pedro Sánchez has achieved by different means the goals pursued by the self-proclaimed patriots or 'constitutionalists'. She could be right and anyway I think it's a proven fact Sánchez is a master turning neccessity into virtue. He also made serious mistakes like the repeat election in 2019, but that's another question


https://twitter.com/HoyPorHoy/status/1783762255953182802?t=q-DKPaiivIhoJ8vwT5IzY...

It could be that the personal strain is now becoming too much, Velasco, but one cannot put aside the "perfect" timing of all of this, if Sanchéz wants to rebound from the last complicated months: Catalonia elections in two weeks, which could give PSC a strong result; An Opposition that "throws" a lot of stones but that has glass ceilings also; And who knows, "restart" the falling PSOE EP election campaign.

I think he is sincere and the personal strain is real. Right now I don't see clear political advantages in this move. I geard some people saying Sánchez had tge intent to resign on Wednesday,  but there are no wignals coming from La Monclia. Maybe he will resurge stronger, but I fear bext Monday. There are no replacenent fugures, neither in the PSOE nor in the progressive camp

[MRCVzla]

Most likely scenario for what happens on Monday is Sánchez may probably not resign but call a Motion of Confidence, an instrument rarely used but twice -with Suárez and Felipe González in the 80s- in Spanish Democracy, in order to verify the support of his current majority (it only needs simple majority to be passed), also as they said prior, this could be also a strategy in order to boost PSOE/PSC performance in the upcoming Catalan and European elections. PSOE' EP electoral list was supposed to be ratified on Saturday' Federal Committee meeting but that will be converted more into a "support rally" so has been postponed after Monday' decision.

All is support from the left and consideration about "taking a break" in today's conflicted politics, but still receiving bullying from the right political-mediatical bloc which clearly only cares about being in power much more than the left is (?).

[Velasco]

"Pedro Sánchez is gone already (even if he stays)"

Nowadays family life and personal wellbeing are more valued than in the past. Pedro Sánchez might well resist all the strain, but perhaps his wife has reached a limit. When a political leader like Sánchez threatens to resign, he's beginning to say goodbye (even if he stsys after next Monday). Pedro Sánchez has evidently changed the dynamics of the Catalan and EP elections campaigns. The reaction of the PP leaders reveals confusion and lack of finesse. It's clear the possible resignation of Pedro Sánchez would greatly benefit the right-wing opposition (the PSOEwithouta leader and Sumar/Podemosin complete disarray),  but right-wing leaders are fearful of a political rival that defeated them on several occasions. As usual Enric Juliana provides the best analysis of the political situation.

PSOE sympathizers stand at the party's HQs in Madrid. Reactionaries and conservatives cry such demonstrations are  "populist" and "Bolivarian". They are not only wrong - they are lacking the neccessary finesse and respect for the political adversaries,  as well as insulting all the progressive people in this country

https://twitter.com/el_pais/status/1784170534718120092?t=dE6rc8O6WrwMTKAUf-bagQ&...

[Mike88]

PP fearful of a "moderate" shift in the PSOE that could make them lose swing voters? It's a possibility, no doubt.

[Velasco]

PP fearful of a "moderate" shift in the PSOE that could make them lose swing voters? It's a possibility, no doubt.

 Which "moderate shift" are you talking about? Do you think García-Page will replace the "radical" Sánchez?

If Sánchez resigns, the PSOE might well stay a decade in opposition. The key to gain power is not the limited amount of voters that could swing between PP and PSOE. Pedro Sánchez came to power because of a network of alliances with the "enemies of Spain" (Podemos and the peripheral nationalists). Actually Pedro Sánchez has managed to integrate those "enemies" within Spain's constitutional system, as Estefania Molina says in a tweet I posted before. The problem is that the PSOE under Sánchez has became "presidentialist". There's no replacenent to his leadership and a "moderate" like García-Page would never be to forge the network of alliances neccessary to be elected PM in the present day political landscape. On the contrary, without Sánchez a demoralized progressive base could stay at home, paving the way for a reactionary PP-VOX government. Furthermore,  if rhere are still "moderates" in the PP with some vision of future, such ",moderates" should feel thankful to Sánchez and his policies - the implementation of the Amnesty Law could pave the way for alliances between the PP and PNV or Junts, certainly more moderate than the reactionary PP-VOX conjunction

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Has Sánchez ever thought about grooming a successor?

[Velasco]

Has Sánchez ever thought about grooming a successor?

No

[icc]

Now looking like Sanchez might not resign after all, maybe he has also realised how this gives every impression of being a nakedly politically motivated stunt from some distinctly shady people?

Sánchez has announced that he will indeed continue as Presidente del Gobierno.

[Logical]

[Velasco]

I wish this is the beginning of a new phase

[Antonio the Sixth]

Chad move

[Skye]

The CIS is out with a shock poll that has Sánchez with 39% of the vote. It was conducted on Friday, two days after Sánchez's announcement.

This would be like a PSOE record in more than a decade.

The CIS under Tezanos has a well documented left-wing bias, but I wouldn't be surprised by a PSOE boost in the rest of the polls.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1784929072646091163

Link to poll: https://www.cis.es/documents/d/cis/3500_estimacion

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

TEFLON SANCHEZ

[Mike88]

In the end, all of this was both personal and strategic. Sanchéz "took the rug away" from his opposition, making them like "what did just happen?" and, like I wrote above, reset the political environment in his favour, so it seems. If this gives a boost for the PSC in Catalonia and starts "crushing" Puigdemont and his cult, not bad.

Also, António Costa gave a huge sigh of relief.