VA-07: Spanberger retiring
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Author Topic: VA-07: Spanberger retiring  (Read 3062 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: November 10, 2023, 10:24:20 PM »
« edited: November 13, 2023, 10:27:12 AM by GeorgiaModerate »

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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2023, 10:31:19 PM »
Didn't we already know this?

From July.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=558856.0
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2023, 11:08:24 PM »
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Sestak
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« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2023, 11:33:02 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on November 10, 2023, 11:08:24 PM


This would be a rematch of the state senate primary this year that McPike (as incumbent) won by half a point, right?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2023, 11:37:31 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on November 10, 2023, 11:33:02 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on November 10, 2023, 11:08:24 PM


This would be a rematch of the state senate primary this year that McPike (as incumbent) won by half a point, right?

A whole thumping 50-vote margin-of-victory, yep!
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2023, 01:10:20 AM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on November 10, 2023, 11:08:24 PM

Given the district I’d imagine McPike is the heavy favorite. He narrowly won in a diverse, safely democratic seat. The congressional district would only be more favorable to him.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2023, 12:00:27 PM »


Yes, she's a real team player doing this early.  Obviously it clears the gubernatorial field if she's already everywhere,  on top of her having recognition with both DC and Richmond voters thanks to redistricting.  But congressionally it helps avoid a lower-turnout PW electorate and gives the most potential to whoever succeds her.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2023, 12:10:30 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on November 10, 2023, 11:08:24 PM

Guzman is such a bad candidate she could lose the general honestly
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Atlas Force
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« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2023, 12:17:17 PM »

Those were just rumors; this is her making it official.
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Atlas Force
mlee117379
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2023, 12:48:15 PM »
Unsurprising news:
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Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
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« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2023, 03:52:27 PM »
Quote from: Atlas Force on November 11, 2023, 12:48:15 PM
Unsurprising news:



We must do everything we can to defeat her. She would easily lose the general.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2023, 04:50:43 PM »
Hopefully Rs nominate a better candidate than Yesli Vega.
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The Economy is Getting Worse
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« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2023, 05:19:59 PM »
Quote from: Arizona Iced Tea on November 11, 2023, 04:50:43 PM
Hopefully Rs nominate a better candidate than Yesli Vega.
Vega looked like a good candidate at the time she was nominated. She heavily overperformed in a PWC supervisor election before.
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Spectator
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« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2023, 05:47:40 PM »
Joshua Cole would make the most sense, but Dems don’t really have a margin for error in the HOD.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2023, 10:50:40 PM »
In 2022 there were 49 retirements (I forget if I included incumbents who lost member vs. member races, but I don't think so.) This makes the 24th not including those who've resigned from the House.

Interesting, there are still 34 House members, 6 Republicans and 28 Democrats who were first elected before 2000 who are running again in 2024 (unless they retire.)
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MargieCat
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« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2023, 11:40:40 PM »
If Dems run Guzman or Ayala, they don't have to worry about any vacancies in the legislature.

Of course, you can also make the argument that they are weak because they did not win their primaries.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2023, 02:41:57 AM »

Yup, she already hinted a run for gov in 2025. Could be an interesting race against Sears. Possibly a tossup under Biden, Likely D under Trump.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2023, 09:24:34 AM »
With Spanberger officially out:


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mlee117379
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« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2023, 10:43:55 AM »
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #19 on: November 13, 2023, 11:59:08 AM »
Quote from: Atlas Force on November 13, 2023, 10:43:55 AM

Good list, hopefully one of them steps up so we don't get stuck with unelectable Guzman or DINO McPike
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Santander
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« Reply #20 on: November 13, 2023, 03:45:30 PM »
Hopefully she runs for President one day. Polis/Spanberger (or vice versa) 2028?
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2023, 12:27:07 AM »
Quote from: Santander on November 13, 2023, 03:45:30 PM
Hopefully she runs for President one day. Polis/Spanberger (or vice versa) 2028?

Nice to know 2028 is the year I’m finally gonna pull the trigger (on myself)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #22 on: November 15, 2023, 09:13:15 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2023, 10:59:26 AM by Oryxslayer »
Vindman is the first one in the race to replace her.
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Atlas Force
mlee117379
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« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2023, 12:18:30 PM »
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #24 on: November 17, 2023, 02:21:15 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2023, 05:56:04 PM by Oryxslayer »
Vindman raised over $800K in the first 24 hours, almost all from outside the district. Which is emblematic of what this race has quickly become. Vindman has the #resister crowd who has freely given millions in the past to candidates with less much successful prospects. But inside NOVA the local Dem organizations have quickly soured on him, as he seemingly purposefully ignores them and did nothing for them in the recent elections. However, if they want to rebuff the insane money he's going pull in, there needs to be a single opposition candidate, and this can't become a clown car like the 10th.
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