KY Gov - Emerson - Tied
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  KY Gov - Emerson - Tied
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Author Topic: KY Gov - Emerson - Tied  (Read 1928 times)
Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2023, 12:53:45 PM »

I'd be more worried if this wasn't Emerson.

Their last poll was an obvious outlier, and Cameron was probably always going to eventually close the gap as Republicans came home for him, but I do think Beshear is popular and uncontroversial enough as an incumbent that he still wins by more than in 2019. It's just going to be so annoying how being spoiled by polls with him way ahead are going to make his victory look weaker and cause hand-wringing. It's f***ing Kentucky.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2023, 01:09:13 PM »

This poll coming after their last one is the most Memerson thing to ever Memerson!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2023, 01:47:27 PM »

Not very convincing.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2023, 01:57:50 PM »

Not very convincing.


I mean, they're not gonna say Beshear is 10 points up. This is just classic spin, whether Beshear was up 5 or down 5. Gotta make sure people still come out and vote.
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Birdish
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« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2023, 02:05:14 PM »

Not very convincing.


I mean, they're not gonna say Beshear is 10 points up. This is just classic spin, whether Beshear was up 5 or down 5. Gotta make sure people still come out and vote.

Has a campaign ever answered when a reporter asks for specific internal polling numbers?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2023, 02:14:02 PM »

This massive swing makes me want to throw out both Emerson polls of this race. Just doesn't seem plausible for such a huge change in a few weeks.

Emerson always does that. Insane polling throughout the race only to heard at the end.

Emerson is a good academic pollster with sound methodological approaches, but their glaring issue is that they change their methodology from poll to poll (probably for educational purposes, which is fine!) but then present their results as if they are apples to apples when they are not.

They could end up being right here, they could end up being wildly off. Neither validates nor invalidates their approaches - at the end of the day, what they are doing is the equivalent of firing five different types of guns in five different directions and claiming they have dead aim because they hit something.

If you or any of your friends/colleagues have polled this race recently, have you seen noticeable recent momentum for Cameron?
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2023, 02:52:37 PM »

Beshear still pulls this out. Everyone calm down. It’s not a 2015-16 rerun.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2023, 03:03:06 PM »

I think there is a decent chance Cameron wins thus proving approval rating doesn’t mean a darn thing.
It definitely means something.. Beshear even in a loss will outperform the standard democrat by 20+ points.

Just with a state as red as Kentucky, the partisan baseline for republicans is obviously high.. Bevin literally had 30% ~ approval, lost by a point against a S tier candidate.

How does it mean anything if someone with 50 plus approval ratings loses? It means partisanship matters more.

Partisanship might matter more. Even with Beshear's high approval ratings, it might not be enough. But if he wasn't popular, he would lose by a lot more than he's going to.

How would you rate Beshear’s chances of winning now compared to before?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2023, 03:07:37 PM »

I think there is a decent chance Cameron wins thus proving approval rating doesn’t mean a darn thing.
It definitely means something.. Beshear even in a loss will outperform the standard democrat by 20+ points.

Just with a state as red as Kentucky, the partisan baseline for republicans is obviously high.. Bevin literally had 30% ~ approval, lost by a point against a S tier candidate.

How does it mean anything if someone with 50 plus approval ratings loses? It means partisanship matters more.

Partisanship might matter more. Even with Beshear's high approval ratings, it might not be enough. But if he wasn't popular, he would lose by a lot more than he's going to.

How would you rate Beshear’s chances of winning now compared to before?

I would say they were 70% before, 40% now maybe?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2023, 03:12:09 PM »

I think there is a decent chance Cameron wins thus proving approval rating doesn’t mean a darn thing.
It definitely means something.. Beshear even in a loss will outperform the standard democrat by 20+ points.

Just with a state as red as Kentucky, the partisan baseline for republicans is obviously high.. Bevin literally had 30% ~ approval, lost by a point against a S tier candidate.

How does it mean anything if someone with 50 plus approval ratings loses? It means partisanship matters more.

Partisanship might matter more. Even with Beshear's high approval ratings, it might not be enough. But if he wasn't popular, he would lose by a lot more than he's going to.

How would you rate Beshear’s chances of winning now compared to before?

I would say they were 70% before, 40% now maybe?

Will the race be closer than the 2019 one?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2023, 03:14:14 PM »

I think there is a decent chance Cameron wins thus proving approval rating doesn’t mean a darn thing.
It definitely means something.. Beshear even in a loss will outperform the standard democrat by 20+ points.

Just with a state as red as Kentucky, the partisan baseline for republicans is obviously high.. Bevin literally had 30% ~ approval, lost by a point against a S tier candidate.

How does it mean anything if someone with 50 plus approval ratings loses? It means partisanship matters more.

Partisanship might matter more. Even with Beshear's high approval ratings, it might not be enough. But if he wasn't popular, he would lose by a lot more than he's going to.

How would you rate Beshear’s chances of winning now compared to before?

I would say they were 70% before, 40% now maybe?

Will the race be closer than the 2019 one?

Who knows?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #36 on: November 03, 2023, 03:56:40 PM »

Well I'm not too surprised. I've felt the race tightening in recent days. Will be a nailbiter most likely, unfortunately not an easy win for Beshear.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2023, 03:59:24 PM »

Well I'm not too surprised. I've felt the race tightening in recent days. Will be a nailbiter most likely, unfortunately not an easy win for Beshear.

Who do you think wins?
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oldtimer
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« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2023, 04:01:07 PM »

Stop panicking.

It could be just undecideds simply deciding to all vote for the same candidate, it happens a lot, which is why being under 50 on the average is a risk.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2023, 04:17:55 PM »

Stop panicking.

It could be just undecideds simply deciding to all vote for the same candidate, it happens a lot, which is why being under 50 on the average is a risk.

It seems undecideds almost always go to the challenger.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2023, 04:29:55 PM »

Stop panicking.

It could be just undecideds simply deciding to all vote for the same candidate, it happens a lot, which is why being under 50 on the average is a risk.

It seems undecideds almost always go to the challenger.
Not true, in 2022 they all went to the incumbent party.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #41 on: November 03, 2023, 05:02:00 PM »

Stop panicking.

It could be just undecideds simply deciding to all vote for the same candidate, it happens a lot, which is why being under 50 on the average is a risk.

It seems undecideds almost always go to the challenger.

Tell that to Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, Lindsay Graham, Catherine Cortez-Masto.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #42 on: November 03, 2023, 05:23:41 PM »

Well I'm not too surprised. I've felt the race tightening in recent days. Will be a nailbiter most likely, unfortunately not an easy win for Beshear.

Who do you think wins?

Still Beshear, but I wouldn't be too surprised if Cameron pulls it off. This is the first poll with him leading by any measure however.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #43 on: November 03, 2023, 05:24:41 PM »

Well I'm not too surprised. I've felt the race tightening in recent days. Will be a nailbiter most likely, unfortunately not an easy win for Beshear.

Who do you think wins?

Still Beshear, but I wouldn't be too surprised if Cameron pulls it off. This is the first poll with him leading by any measure however.

Where do you expect Beshear to lose the most ground from 2019?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #44 on: November 03, 2023, 06:05:12 PM »

Well I'm not too surprised. I've felt the race tightening in recent days. Will be a nailbiter most likely, unfortunately not an easy win for Beshear.

Who do you think wins?

Still Beshear, but I wouldn't be too surprised if Cameron pulls it off. This is the first poll with him leading by any measure however.

Where do you expect Beshear to lose the most ground from 2019?

Probably the Eastern Kentucky coalfield. If you look at the 2022 abortion map, I think that is more realistic for him than that he wins all those counties again. He'll win Rowan and maybe Elliott if it has a last hurrah moment, but probably not much if anything else in that region.
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Xing
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« Reply #45 on: November 03, 2023, 06:11:25 PM »

Emerson going from Beshear up 16 to a tie makes it very hard for them to take seriously. That said, Cameron could win, and no one should’ve been denying that as a possibility. I’ll stick to my prediction of Beshear winning, since I do think that if his favorables are high enough for him to counterbalance the partisan lean of the state, though I think he’ll want really strong turnout in Louisville/Lexington relative to the rest of the state.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #46 on: November 04, 2023, 04:32:07 AM »

There's always a poll right around this time that really stirs the pot. It's an odd-year race though, so anxieties aren't quite as a high for most.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #47 on: November 04, 2023, 12:36:09 PM »

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #48 on: November 04, 2023, 03:49:13 PM »

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #49 on: November 04, 2023, 03:53:56 PM »

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?
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