KY Gov - Emerson - Tied

[Alben Barkley]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?

Outlier, like Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?

Outlier, like Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020.

How do you know this is not an outlier like the 2022 ones that had Oz, Masters, Laxalt leading?

[Alben Barkley]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?

Outlier, like Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020.

How do you know this is not an outlier like the 2022 ones that had Oz, Masters, Laxalt leading?

It could be, and I hope it is. I just highly doubt it based on my 30+ years of knowledge of Kentucky. Also at least a couple other polls showed the race about this tight, but no others had Beshear leading by as lopsided a margin as the last one.

[Tekken_Guy]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?

Outlier, like Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020.

How do you know this is not an outlier like the 2022 ones that had Oz, Masters, Laxalt leading?

It could be, and I hope it is. I just highly doubt it based on my 30+ years of knowledge of Kentucky. Also at least a couple other polls showed the race about this tight, but no others had Beshear leading by as lopsided a margin as the last one.

Why do you trust this poll more than the 2022 final Emerson polls?

And besides, most polls had Beshear with a modest lead. This is the only one to have Cameron actually on the verge of winning and is an outlier in that regard.

[Alben Barkley]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?

Outlier, like Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020.

How do you know this is not an outlier like the 2022 ones that had Oz, Masters, Laxalt leading?

It could be, and I hope it is. I just highly doubt it based on my 30+ years of knowledge of Kentucky. Also at least a couple other polls showed the race about this tight, but no others had Beshear leading by as lopsided a margin as the last one.

Why do you trust this poll more than the 2022 final Emerson polls?

And besides, most polls had Beshear with a modest lead. This is the only one to have Cameron actually on the verge of winning and is an outlier in that regard.

There were a couple other polls (albeit R-sponsored ones, granted) that had the race within a couple points, within the margin of error.  You're right that it is the only one that shows Cameron actually outright winning by any measure, and I still do expect Beshear to win so it's not that I really trust this poll. I just think a race that comes within a point is far more likely than a 16 point blowout, simply based on state partisanship, the national environment, and the 2019 results.

[Tekken_Guy]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?

Outlier, like Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020.

How do you know this is not an outlier like the 2022 ones that had Oz, Masters, Laxalt leading?

It could be, and I hope it is. I just highly doubt it based on my 30+ years of knowledge of Kentucky. Also at least a couple other polls showed the race about this tight, but no others had Beshear leading by as lopsided a margin as the last one.

Why do you trust this poll more than the 2022 final Emerson polls?

And besides, most polls had Beshear with a modest lead. This is the only one to have Cameron actually on the verge of winning and is an outlier in that regard.

There were a couple other polls (albeit R-sponsored ones, granted) that had the race within a couple points, within the margin of error.  You're right that it is the only one that shows Cameron actually outright winning by any measure, and I still do expect Beshear to win so it's not that I really trust this poll. I just think a race that comes within a point is far more likely than a 16 point blowout, simply based on state partisanship, the national environment, and the 2019 results.

Yes it’s more likely than a 16 point blowout, but that doesn’t necessarily make it more likely than a modest 3-4 point Beshear win.

[Alben Barkley]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?

Outlier, like Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020.

How do you know this is not an outlier like the 2022 ones that had Oz, Masters, Laxalt leading?

It could be, and I hope it is. I just highly doubt it based on my 30+ years of knowledge of Kentucky. Also at least a couple other polls showed the race about this tight, but no others had Beshear leading by as lopsided a margin as the last one.

Why do you trust this poll more than the 2022 final Emerson polls?

And besides, most polls had Beshear with a modest lead. This is the only one to have Cameron actually on the verge of winning and is an outlier in that regard.

There were a couple other polls (albeit R-sponsored ones, granted) that had the race within a couple points, within the margin of error.  You're right that it is the only one that shows Cameron actually outright winning by any measure, and I still do expect Beshear to win so it's not that I really trust this poll. I just think a race that comes within a point is far more likely than a 16 point blowout, simply based on state partisanship, the national environment, and the 2019 results.

Yes it’s more likely than a 16 point blowout, but that doesn’t necessarily make it more likely than a modest 3-4 point Beshear win.

I don't disagree. I wouldn't be shocked by anything from Cameron +3 to Beshear +5 or so. Anything beyond that in either direction would be a surprise.