KY Gov - Emerson - Tied

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1720387637515583978?t=E8FHOjY9oxkvHMMwRb6...

16 point swing from last poll.

[Duke of York]

I think there is a decent chance Cameron wins thus proving approval rating doesn’t mean a darn thing.

[SnowLabrador]

In hindsight, Beshear's 2019 victory was an absolute fluke. He might still win, but I'm a lot less confident than I was a few weeks ago.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I think there is a decent chance Cameron wins thus proving approval rating doesn’t mean a darn thing.

It definitely means something.. Beshear even in a loss will outperform the standard democrat by 20+ points.

Just with a state as red as Kentucky, the partisan baseline for republicans is obviously high.. Bevin literally had 30% ~ approval, lost by a point against a S tier candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes sure

[Duke of York]

I think there is a decent chance Cameron wins thus proving approval rating doesn’t mean a darn thing.

It definitely means something.. Beshear even in a loss will outperform the standard democrat by 20+ points.

Just with a state as red as Kentucky, the partisan baseline for republicans is obviously high.. Bevin literally had 30% ~ approval, lost by a point against a S tier candidate.

How does it mean anything if someone with 50 plus approval ratings loses? It means partisanship matters more.

[SnowLabrador]

I think there is a decent chance Cameron wins thus proving approval rating doesn’t mean a darn thing.

It definitely means something.. Beshear even in a loss will outperform the standard democrat by 20+ points.

Just with a state as red as Kentucky, the partisan baseline for republicans is obviously high.. Bevin literally had 30% ~ approval, lost by a point against a S tier candidate.

How does it mean anything if someone with 50 plus approval ratings loses? It means partisanship matters more.

Partisanship might matter more. Even with Beshear's high approval ratings, it might not be enough. But if he wasn't popular, he would lose by a lot more than he's going to.

[Mr.Phips]

We could be looking at another 2015 here.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This massive swing makes me want to throw out both Emerson polls of this race. Just doesn't seem plausible for such a huge change in a few weeks.

[Birdish]

This massive swing makes me want to throw out both Emerson polls of this race. Just doesn't seem plausible for such a huge change in a few weeks.

Emerson always does that. Insane polling throughout the race only to heard at the end.

[Dave Hedgehog]

It's all panning out just as I expected. Beshear has clearly done a good job in the eyes of his constituents, but the state is just so red that it's very possibly going to prove too much of a hurdle to clear for reelection in the end. Cameron has a very easy card to play in national Democrats' unpopularity and is obviously playing it hard judging by all the articles I read on this race. That might literally be all he needs to win over this electorate.

Will be glad when this race is over to be honest; I've hardly any nails left to bite anymore.

[wbrocks67]

Some weird responses in here, as if Cameron winning is a foregone conclusion. He absolutely *could* win in terms of chance, but I still don't find it likely. This is also the *only* poll of the entire cycle to show him ahead, and he's only tied/leading by 1.

Add that in with Emerson, who last cycle had a particular GOP bias, and of course, has gone from Cameron suddenly going from 34% to 49% in a matter of weeks... let's just wait and see.

It's just our luck though that the only nonpartisan polling in the final month of this campaign is simply 2 Emerson polls.

[Pollster]

This massive swing makes me want to throw out both Emerson polls of this race. Just doesn't seem plausible for such a huge change in a few weeks.

Emerson always does that. Insane polling throughout the race only to heard at the end.

Emerson is a good academic pollster with sound methodological approaches, but their glaring issue is that they change their methodology from poll to poll (probably for educational purposes, which is fine!) but then present their results as if they are apples to apples when they are not.

They could end up being right here, they could end up being wildly off. Neither validates nor invalidates their approaches - at the end of the day, what they are doing is the equivalent of firing five different types of guns in five different directions and claiming they have dead aim because they hit something.

[wbrocks67]

Independents are interesting... though Emerson has had a pretty bad record with this group. Cameron is actually up 2% with them here. Given Morning Consult's 58/31 approval for Beshear among this group, I'd be surprised if Cameron won them.

[DaleCooper]

Lol, Emerson is sh-t. Ignore every number they make up. Even if this ends up being right, they just got lucky.

[wbrocks67]

Mason Dixon, who nailed the result in 2019, leaving us out in the dust this year

[Skill and Chance]

Strong VA-GOV 2013 vibes.

[BigZuck08]

This poll seems like an outlier, though if there is more of this I will bump it down from Likely D to Lean D

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Voters typically like to punish the President party in off-year elections, at least it is what I have read. As a result, it would not come as a total surprise if Beshear loses. It is a very Republican state after all and Republicans already did well in Louisiana (even if these two races are not comparable). I am a bit reluctant to believe it is this close, because Beshear is a popular incumbent and voters often side with the popular incumbent on election day. But Biden could make it close, because he's unpopular. Similarly, I cannot really say who wins in Mississippi: Gov. Reeves is unpopular, Presley is hitting the right topics with medical insurance expansion - but Biden is hurting Presley. That's why I would predict very close wins by the two incumbent governors in both states.

[EastwoodS]

I don't like Emerson, but this is the only "non-partisan" poll that actually gives a realistic margin of the race. I really need to see one more tied result in a poll and at least one poll with Cameron leading to go under Beshear +2.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I still think Beshear will win but I don't see him winning by more than 5 points.

[MT Treasurer]

This is still speculation, but it does seem like my "non-obvious prediction" from 3 months ago of a late R surge in KY and a D surge in MS is coming true.

I predicted this based off state fundamentals & candidate profiles, not polling (which was always misleading in both races).

Easier for the "right" Democrat to win MS against a toxic opponent than for a "generic" Democrat like Beshear to win KY against a non-toxic opponent.

[wbrocks67]

The thing with Cameron is that he's not "toxic" in the typical sense, with no obvious scandals, but I wouldn't even consider him "generic" though, he's a pretty mediocre candidate.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The thing with Cameron is that he's not "toxic" in the typical sense, with no obvious scandals, but I wouldn't even consider him "generic" though, he's a pretty mediocre candidate.

Cameron is a good candidate but Beshear is an incumbent here. This is one of the very few races where voters like both candidates and are trying to decide which one they want more. For swing voters its a matter off staying with the guy you know, but they also understand that the challenger here would also be a good governor so there isn't any risk of a wrong choice here.

[Birdish]

Cameron seems fine although disappointing. He could very well win next week due to the partisan lean of Kentucky. But he was hyped up when he first came into office. I can't be the only one who remembers him being listed as a future presidential contender.