2023 elections predictions thread
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April 28, 2024, 07:06:13 PM
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Author Topic: 2023 elections predictions thread  (Read 2474 times)
Ferguson97
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« on: October 28, 2023, 03:57:17 PM »
« edited: October 28, 2023, 04:15:02 PM by Ferguson97 »
Kentucky governor: Beshear+7 (D-hold)

Mississippi governor: Reeves+9 (R-hold)

Pennsylvania supreme court: D+10 (D-hold)

Ohio abortion: Yes+10

Ohio marijuana: Yes+12

Virginia House: 53 D / 47 R (net D+5)

Virginia Senate: 23 D / 17 R (net D+1)

New Jersey Assembly: 48 D / 32 R (net D+2)

New Jersey Senate: 24 D / 16 R (net R+1)
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2023, 04:07:07 PM »
I bet Ohio marijuana will pass by more than abortion.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2023, 04:14:52 PM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on October 28, 2023, 04:07:07 PM
I bet Ohio marijuana will pass by more than abortion.

So do I, that was meant to be a 12. Whoops.
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Spectator
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2023, 04:46:00 PM »
KY: Beshear +2
MS: Reeves +1
VA HOD: small D majority of 51-55 seats
VA Senate: small D majority of 21-24 seats
Ohio: both yeses pass
No idea on NJ, but I doubt Dems are in serious danger.
Wichita Mayor: Libertarian beats the incumbent Democrat
PA Court: McCaffery narrowly wins.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2023, 04:51:52 PM »
KY: Beshear +2
MS: Reeves +9
VA HOD: 51D-49R
VA Senate: 21D-19R
Ohio: Abortion Yes + 10, Pot Yes +15
NJ:  State Senate 23D-17R, Assembly 45D-35R
Wichita Mayor: Libertarian wins by 4
PA Court: McCaffery(D) wins by 4.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2023, 09:29:41 PM »
Kentucky: Beshear+4
Mississippi: Reeves+7
Virginia House: 52D-48R
Virginia Senate: 22D-18R
NJ House: 48D-32R
NJ Senate: 24D-16R
Ohio abortion: Yes+15
Ohio marijuana: Yes+10
Pennsylvania: McCaffery+6
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xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2023, 04:29:19 PM »
Kentucky: Beshear +3
Mississippi: Reeves +5
PA Supreme Court: McCaffery by low-mid single digits

Abortion and marijuana both pass in Ohio

Democrats win both chambers in NJ and VA, but only barely win the VA House.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2023, 04:34:28 PM »
KY: Beshear +2
MS: Reeves +8
OH: Abortion and marijuana both pass.
NJ: Democrats win both chambers.
VA: Republicans win both chambers.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2023, 04:35:52 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on October 31, 2023, 04:34:28 PM
KY: Beshear +2
MS: Reeves +8
OH: Abortion and marijuana both pass.
NJ: Democrats win both chambers.
VA: Republicans win both chambers.
I can see the GOP making it 50-50 in the house but the senate looks like a hump they can't overcome. Are you seeing something, I'm not.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2023, 04:37:28 PM »
Quote from: EastwoodS on October 31, 2023, 04:35:52 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on October 31, 2023, 04:34:28 PM
KY: Beshear +2
MS: Reeves +8
OH: Abortion and marijuana both pass.
NJ: Democrats win both chambers.
VA: Republicans win both chambers.
I can see the GOP making it 50-50 in the house but the senate looks like a hump they can't overcome. Are you seeing something, I'm not.

Youngkin's pretty popular. Early voting looked good for McAuliffe too in 2021, until election night.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2023, 04:40:17 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on October 31, 2023, 04:37:28 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on October 31, 2023, 04:35:52 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on October 31, 2023, 04:34:28 PM
KY: Beshear +2
MS: Reeves +8
OH: Abortion and marijuana both pass.
NJ: Democrats win both chambers.
VA: Republicans win both chambers.
I can see the GOP making it 50-50 in the house but the senate looks like a hump they can't overcome. Are you seeing something, I'm not.

Youngkin's pretty popular. Early voting looked good for McAuliffe too in 2021, until election night.
I see some twitter accounts that think the EV looks good for the Republicans, what's up with that?
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2016
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2023, 04:44:30 PM »
Quote from: EastwoodS on October 31, 2023, 04:35:52 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on October 31, 2023, 04:34:28 PM
KY: Beshear +2
MS: Reeves +8
OH: Abortion and marijuana both pass.
NJ: Democrats win both chambers.
VA: Republicans win both chambers.
I can see the GOP making it 50-50 in the house but the senate looks like a hump they can't overcome. Are you seeing something, I'm not.
D's are not doing as well in the Early Vote as they did in 2021:
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2023, 04:52:40 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2023, 07:40:19 PM by Skill and Chance »
Quote from: 2016 on October 31, 2023, 04:44:30 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on October 31, 2023, 04:35:52 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on October 31, 2023, 04:34:28 PM
KY: Beshear +2
MS: Reeves +8
OH: Abortion and marijuana both pass.
NJ: Democrats win both chambers.
VA: Republicans win both chambers.
I can see the GOP making it 50-50 in the house but the senate looks like a hump they can't overcome. Are you seeing something, I'm not.
D's are not doing as well in the Early Vote as they did in 2021:


Every year since COVID the early vote has gotten proportionally better for Republicans, particularly the in-person early vote.  That is, 2023 looks more R than 2022, which was more R than 2021, which was more R than 2020. 

However, Dems actually did ~5% better in 2022 than in 2021 and won the statewide PV by 3%, so this wasn't very predictive.  Most likely it just reflects decreasing party polarization of early vs. election day voting as we get further away from 2020. 

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2023, 05:16:01 PM »
Quote from: EastwoodS on October 31, 2023, 04:35:52 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on October 31, 2023, 04:34:28 PM
KY: Beshear +2
MS: Reeves +8
OH: Abortion and marijuana both pass.
NJ: Democrats win both chambers.
VA: Republicans win both chambers.
I can see the GOP making it 50-50 in the house but the senate looks like a hump they can't overcome. Are you seeing something, I'm not.

He sees through (R)ose colored glasses.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2023, 05:33:34 PM »
KY: Beshear +4
MS: Reeves +7
OH: Both amendments pass
NJ: Dems keep both chambers
VA: Dems keep senate and take HoD
PA: McCaffery +6
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2023, 11:37:03 AM »
I now predict that Beshear will win by Doube Digits.

Reason: We haven't seen an Indepedent Poll ever since that Emerson Poll was published suggesting to me that they might be right and KY-GOV isn't competitive this year.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2023, 03:58:13 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on November 01, 2023, 11:37:03 AM
I now predict that Beshear will win by Doube Digits.

Reason: We haven't seen an Indepedent Poll ever since that Emerson Poll was published suggesting to me that they might be right and KY-GOV isn't competitive this year.
I wish NBC would make one, they nailed it last time Unamused
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2023, 06:31:26 PM »
Quote from: EastwoodS on November 01, 2023, 03:58:13 PM
Quote from: 2016 on November 01, 2023, 11:37:03 AM
I now predict that Beshear will win by Doube Digits.

Reason: We haven't seen an Indepedent Poll ever since that Emerson Poll was published suggesting to me that they might be right and KY-GOV isn't competitive this year.
I wish NBC would make one, they nailed it last time Unamused
We probably won't have much luck unless they release it on Sunday. Meh.

But here are 3 further Prediction Videos for the Nov 7 Elections










Enjoy Smiley
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2023, 06:34:16 PM »
We're not getting any exit polls next week, are we? It would be fascinating if Edison could afford to do OH, MS, KY.
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xavier110
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2023, 10:40:36 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2023, 10:52:44 AM by xavier110 »
KY-Gov: Beshear +2
MS-Gov: Reeves +6
OH: Both pass with double digit wins
VA: Dems win both chambers
PA: Dem hold

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2023, 10:49:19 AM »
KY: Beshear +4
MS: Reeves +2
OH: both pass, both double digits but weed closer to 15%, abortion closer to 10%.
VA: Dems get both Senate & House
PA: McCaffery +5
NJ: not much of a change from current margins, give or take 1 or 2 seats
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🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2023, 12:41:31 PM »
KY: Beshear +6
MS: Presley +2
OH: abortion rights +18
OH: private marihuana +17
PA: McCafferty +11
VA: Democrats win both chambers
NJ: Democrats win both chambers
RI: D+17 in US House election
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🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2023, 12:44:32 PM »
It will be a relatively good night tomorrow for Democrats and Liberals.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2023, 12:54:13 PM »
I will admit defeat if I end up being delusional, but I do believe there is a higher chance than people expect that Presley may win.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2023, 01:26:40 PM »
Quote from: 🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱 on November 06, 2023, 12:44:32 PM
It will be a relatively good night tomorrow for Democrats and Liberals.
Some signals in early vote that show weakness for them in states like VA and KY lmao
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