MS-GOV (PPP/DGA): Reeves +1

[wbrocks67]

Reeves (R) 46%
Presley (D) 45%
Undecided 10%

Reeves fav: 33/51 (-18)
Presley fav: 36/31 (+5)

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/23/governors-race-poll-tate-reeves-brandon-presley/

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If this holds, IndyRep will finally have made a correct, non-obvious prediction.

I’m still sticking to my prediction of Reeves +15 to 20 though.

[Roll Roons]

I could definitely buy Presley getting to 46 or 47, but beyond that...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gov Elect Presley

[SnowLabrador]

My prediction is Reeves by high single digits. I'd love to be wrong, though.

[wbrocks67]

One would suspect that a lot of the undecideds likely go to Reeves, but here they are 2/68 favorable for Reeves, so could get interesting...

[seskoog]

If this holds, IndyRep will finally have made a correct, non-obvious prediction.

I’m still sticking to my prediction of Reeves +15 to 20 though.

Reeves isn’t outperforming Trump. Subtract 10 from your estimate to get a more accurate prediction (Reeves+5-10)

[MT Treasurer]

If this holds, IndyRep will finally have made a correct, non-obvious prediction.

You sure know a lot about my prediction history for someone who only joined the forum in 2023.. longtime lurker, I assume?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If this holds, IndyRep will finally have made a correct, non-obvious prediction.

You sure know a lot about my prediction history for someone who only joined the forum in 2023.. longtime lurker, I assume?

No, sometimes I search past posts. There is a search function on Atlas, and also there is hearsay on discords and other PMs (who I won’t disclose the identity of).

[Xing]

If PPP still finds Reeves ahead (even if it's just by 1), then it's hard to see Pressley winning. I'm still going to guess that Reeves wins by 7-8%.

[MT Treasurer]

No, sometimes I search past posts. There is a search function on Atlas, and also there is hearsay on discords and other PMs (who I won’t disclose the identity of).

Understood. What can I say — it’s been a rough ride, but I’m trying my best to improve my track record and am constantly adjusting my approach. Like most Republicans, I am tired of losing.

[wbrocks67]

If PPP still finds Reeves ahead (even if it's just by 1), then it's hard to see Pressley winning. I'm still going to guess that Reeves wins by 7-8%.

Not sure why there's this assumption that PPP is a bad pollster. They've been on and off just like most in the past few years, but nothing egregious.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If PPP still finds Reeves ahead (even if it's just by 1), then it's hard to see Pressley winning. I'm still going to guess that Reeves wins by 7-8%.

Did you know Bevin was leading Beshear, no your analyst is incorrect

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Mississippi is too racially polarized for me to think that Presley actually closes this out, but I could see him at least replicating Hood's result four years ago.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What is the story here that is making this election so close?

[wbrocks67]

What is the story here that is making this election so close?

I think just a combo of Reeves being pretty unpopular and Presley being an above average candidate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mississippi is too racially polarized for me to think that Presley actually closes this out, but I could see him at least replicating Hood's result four years ago.

Beshear 2019

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What is the story here that is making this election so close?

I think just a combo of Reeves being pretty unpopular and Presley being an above average candidate

What did Reeves do to be so unpopular?

[wbrocks67]

What is the story here that is making this election so close?

I think just a combo of Reeves being pretty unpopular and Presley being an above average candidate

What did Reeves do to be so unpopular?

There was a pretty big welfare scandal he was involved in for one: https://mississippitoday.org/2023/08/21/tate-reeves-welfare-scandal-involvement/

Also seems he's been pretty bad on education as well
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/03/13/tate-reeves-public-education-tweet/

[MT Treasurer]

What is the story here that is making this election so close?

My take on this race from two months ago:

Brandon Pressley is almost a caricature of the type of Democrat you need to run to be competitive in MS, campaigning as an even more socially conservative and practicing Christian than Jim Hood (who was always too ambiguous about his stances on some of those issues and had some authenticity issues in that regard), painting Reeves as part of a corrupt, out-of-touch 'ol'-boy' network which has destroyed the quality of life for working people in the state, and steering clear of any racial rhetoric/issues that would alienate the white voting base while going all in on a convincing brand of economic populism. Has it ever occurred to people that the actual reason Mississippi is usually "inelastic" in elections is precisely because Democrats don’t usually run candidates like Brandon Pressley? If MS were as inelastic as it’s made out to be, Espy wouldn’t have overperformed by that much and Hood wouldn’t have come within 5 points of beating Reeves (who was a stronger opponent in 2019 than he is now).

People meme about this, but it’s undeniable that social conservatism is a make-or-break area for Democrats in the Deep South and that there is in fact a large chunk of white voters who are very much waiting for a conservative Pressley-type Democrat to support against against an arrogant pol like Reeves who thinks he can get away with anything because of partisanship. Yes, Republicans usually don’t bleed white voters in the Deep South, but "when it rains, it pours" (as we saw in LA in 2015).

The path for Pressley is very clear and certainly real. Whether he’ll actually win is a different matter, but nobody should be writing him off because of some weird preconceptions about states and meaningless buzzwords which are proven wrong every cycle. Even a quick look at their campaign ads should tell you which campaign is acting more desperate — Reeves' only response to the state's myriad problems is literally "let’s stop trans athletes from participating in women's sports" (something that’s basically unheard of in MS):

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/07/12/brandon-presley-tate-reeves-tv-ads-governor/

It doesn’t get more out-of-touch than that. He’s doing nothing to change the perception that he is a sleazy, selfish pol putting himself above the state and only ever throwing red meat when it’s campaign season. This type of candidate really, really doesn’t play well in the Deep South.

Pressley has also focused on the right issues (rural hospitals shutting down, Medicaid expansion to low-income workers, infrastructure projects, etc.) and painted Reeves' administration with its culture of corruption (think mismanaging/stealing welfare money, selling government positions to his donors, enriching his wife, etc.) as standing in the way of addressing those issues.

[wbrocks67]

It's interesting; Presley seems to be taking the Beshear route a bit and focusing more on the kitchen table issues, while Reeves seems to be doing the Cameron route with continuing to push mainly the culture wars stuff.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It's interesting; Presley seems to be taking the Beshear route a bit and focusing more on the kitchen table issues, while Reeves seems to be doing the Cameron route with continuing to push mainly the culture wars stuff.

According to Skill and Chance, more people care about trans issues than Medicaid expansion in MS, lol.

[DaleCooper]

Mississippi is too racially polarized for me to think that Presley actually closes this out, but I could see him at least replicating Hood's result four years ago.

Speaking of racial polarization, these will be good results to look at ahead of 2024, I presume.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Again, I think dismissing internals is lazy. Sometimes they are way off but a lot of times they are spot on.
However, I really don't see how Pressley can actually win, though he is an exceptional candidate for the reasons IndyRep was saying. I just think reeves isn't quite unpopular enough

[Xing]

If PPP still finds Reeves ahead (even if it's just by 1), then it's hard to see Pressley winning. I'm still going to guess that Reeves wins by 7-8%.

Not sure why there's this assumption that PPP is a bad pollster. They've been on and off just like most in the past few years, but nothing egregious.

I'm not saying that they're necessarily bad, but I'd sooner assume that their numbers are a bit too rosy for Pressley, as opposed to the alternative.