Mississippi Megathread 2023

[MT Treasurer]

This race has way more upset potential than many on here seem to think. I'm expecting a low-/mid-single-digit race at this point, and it is winnable for Pressley.

It's funny because I think Beshear is overrated in KY while Pressley is underrated in MS and a KY-R/MS-D split is not completely out of the question.

Pressley is much more palatable to Republican-leaning/culturally conservative voters than Beshear, and Cameron is less tainted than Reeves. Reeves is precisely the kind of politician people will throw out the moment they're actually given an alternative they can stomach.

I do get the sense that Beshear has been behaving too much like Generic D and may have gotten overconfident after the pro-life referendum failed.

Do you think KY is a good bellwether/predictor for the presidential election the year after? Some think it’s just a coincidence, but there are more than a few parallels between Biden and Beshear:

*Both have family names that are more than familiar to voters and used that fact to their advantage in their campaigns.
*Both were fortunate enough to run against unusually incompetent opponents who seemed unwilling/unable to change course and essentially did themselves in.
*Both campaigned as non-partisan moderates above the fray who promised a return to normalcy and a focus on kitchen-table issues while ending up governing more liberally than their campaign rhetoric led people to believe. 
*Both won very narrowly.
*Both won with the same coalition. (enough of a rural/small-town overperformance in select parts of the state/country, huge suburban shifts, blowout margins in urban areas)

If Beshear loses and Pressley pulls it off in MS, we’re essentially back to where we were in 2015, just with LA and MS swapped and Pressley being our JBE this time. (FYI: I don’t think there’s any reason to assume that Pressley can’t pull it off when JBE did it by double digits in a super-R-friendly environment with a similar profile against a similarly scandal-plagued opponent. I don’t buy into the "inelastic MS" narrative, or at least I don’t buy it being far more inflexible than LA.)

It does make you wonder when Republicans will actually get all three of LA/KY/MS — it’s never happened before, and there’s always that one race which seems to elude them.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This race has way more upset potential than many on here seem to think. I'm expecting a low-/mid-single-digit race at this point, and it is winnable for Pressley.

It's funny because I think Beshear is overrated in KY while Pressley is underrated in MS and a KY-R/MS-D split is not completely out of the question.

Pressley is much more palatable to Republican-leaning/culturally conservative voters than Beshear, and Cameron is less tainted than Reeves. Reeves is precisely the kind of politician people will throw out the moment they're actually given an alternative they can stomach.

I do get the sense that Beshear has been behaving too much like Generic D and may have gotten overconfident after the pro-life referendum failed.

Do you think KY is a good bellwether/predictor for the presidential election the year after? Some think it’s just a coincidence, but there are more than a few parallels between Biden and Beshear:

*Both have family names that are more than familiar to voters and used that fact to their advantage in their campaigns.
*Both were fortunate enough to run against unusually incompetent opponents who seemed unwilling/unable to change course and essentially did themselves in.
*Both campaigned as non-partisan moderates above the fray who promised a return to normalcy and a focus on kitchen-table issues while ending up governing more liberally than their campaign rhetoric led people to believe. 
*Both won very narrowly.
*Both won with the same coalition. (enough of a rural/small-town overperformance in select parts of the state/country, huge suburban shifts, blowout margins in urban areas)

If Beshear loses and Pressley pulls it off in MS, we’re essentially back to where we were in 2015, just with LA and MS swapped and Pressley being our JBE this time. (FYI: I don’t think there’s any reason to assume that Pressley can’t pull it off when JBE did it by double digits in a super-R-friendly environment with a similar profile against a similarly scandal-plagued opponent. I don’t buy into the "inelastic MS" narrative, or at least I don’t buy it being far more inflexible than LA.)

It does make you wonder when Republicans will actually get all three of LA/KY/MS — it’s never happened before, and there’s always that one race which seems to elude them.

Bevin's campaign had many similarities to Trump's too

- You had a super controversial businessman who defeated the establishment Republican candidates in the primary and then won an upset win over the Democrat

- They won their upset by winning areas that had seemingly been solid Democratic territory in Presidential/Gubernatorial elections for a while(Eastern KY for Bevin, the Rust Belt for Trump)

- Both made repealing their predecessor healthcare law a priority

- Both stayed controversial and divisive as Governor

- Both narrowly lost reelection in a midst of a health crises(Opiods for Bevin and COVID for Trump)

- Both Tried to overturn the election through the courts and legislature but failed.

[Xing]

The key difference between KY-GOV and the presidential race next year, though, is that Beshear is quite popular (otherwise he wouldn’t have a chance.) Either way, KY has been far more open to electing Democrats, and even a very strong candidate couldn’t beat Reeves last time, so I’m not sure I really see this being another LA-GOV type situation unless there’s some huge development that damages Reeves quite a bit more.

[Tekken_Guy]

The key difference between KY-GOV and the presidential race next year, though, is that Beshear is quite popular (otherwise he wouldn’t have a chance.) Either way, KY has been far more open to electing Democrats, and even a very strong candidate couldn’t beat Reeves last time, so I’m not sure I really see this being another LA-GOV type situation unless there’s some huge development that damages Reeves quite a bit more.

On the other hand, Cameron isn’t as unpopular as Trump, which would be the equivalent of running Bevin again.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I seriously doubt Pressley has any chance of winning. In 2022 Democrats got absolutely blown out of the water in the south(sans GA, and even there most republican statewide officials won by more than Trump did in 2016). I also think Democrats are absolutely maxed out with African Americans beyond belief, and unlike in Georgia, you do not have a massive influx of them so even a mild improvement would be very damaging to democratic chances, and in a state like this where the black population is very high it probably shuts them out entirely even if they are making gains with whites

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs haven't won anything this special Eday cycle and LA G isn't Safe R it's going to a Runoff I guess no one puts polls in database anymore

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

KY is Tilt D; MS is Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY is Tilt D; MS is Likely R

We know this but Rs haven't won anything since winning and upset in WI S in 22 due to IAN in 22 that's why MS can be flipped I still have it D

[windjammer]

I agree in full with ever TNvolunteer said.


I believe that Presley is going to overperform expectations while Beshear underperforming it

[MT Treasurer]

The key difference between KY-GOV and the presidential race next year, though, is that Beshear is quite popular (otherwise he wouldn’t have a chance.) Either way, KY has been far more open to electing Democrats, and even a very strong candidate couldn’t beat Reeves last time, so I’m not sure I really see this being another LA-GOV type situation unless there’s some huge development that damages Reeves quite a bit more.

On the other hand, Cameron isn’t as unpopular as Trump, which would be the equivalent of running Bevin again.

Also, the gap between MS and KY in 2019 was... literally just five points, with Hood losing by 5 and Beshear winning in a virtual tie. You’d think it was a 15- or 20-point gap reading this thread and other analyses of the KY/MS races.

KY being "far more open to electing Democrats than MS" is a common take but one that — nowadays, at least — is fairly disputable, as Beshear was the only Democrat who managed to win in 2019 and only did so by the skin of his teeth against an absolute joke of an opponent. In notable federal races, Mike Espy actually came closer to ousting Cindy Hyde-Smith than Amy McGrath came to defeating Mitch McConnell. KY went for Donald Trump by 26 points, MS did so by 16 points.

I frankly don’t believe that there’s a convincing argument that the MS of 2023 is considerably more "inelastic" (you know my thoughts on this nebulous term) than the LA of 2015. Yes, MS Democrats got absolutely blown out in 2022, but so did LA Democrats in 2014, and we all know how much good that did David Vitter in his gubernatorial race. A Pressley win wouldn’t be a sign of the state's R trend coming to a halt or reversing, it would just be another unique JBE-type situation.

Besides, the exact same argument was already made in 2015 (including by xingkerui, who was convinced that LA was going to be an easy Vitter win and was far more likely to go R than KY) — LA is inelastic, KY isn’t, therefore Conway has a much better chance of winning than JBE. That turned out to be a complete fallacy because people didn’t take a close look at what actually matters in those races: the candidates themselves, not some buzzwords like "elasticity."

Brandon Pressley is almost a caricature of the type of Democrat you need to run to be competitive in MS, campaigning as an even more socially conservative and practicing Christian than Jim Hood (who was always too ambiguous about his stances on some of those issues and had some authenticity issues in that regard), painting Reeves as part of a corrupt, out-of-touch 'ol'-boy' network which has destroyed the quality of life for working people in the state, and steering clear of any racial rhetoric/issues that would alienate the white voting base while going all in on a convincing brand of economic populism. Has it ever occurred to people that the actual reason Mississippi is usually "inelastic" in elections is precisely because Democrats don’t usually run candidates like Brandon Pressley? If MS were as inelastic as it’s made out to be, Espy wouldn’t have overperformed by that much and Hood wouldn’t have come within 5 points of beating Reeves (who was a stronger opponent in 2019 than he is now).

People meme about this, but it’s undeniable that social conservatism is a make-or-break area for Democrats in the Deep South and that there is in fact a large chunk of white voters who are very much waiting for a conservative Pressley-type Democrat to support against against an arrogant pol like Reeves who thinks he can get away with anything because of partisanship. Yes, Republicans usually don’t bleed white voters in the Deep South, but "when it rains, it pours" (as we saw in LA in 2015).

The path for Pressley is very clear and certainly real. Whether he’ll actually win is a different matter, but nobody should be writing him off because of some weird preconceptions about states and meaningless buzzwords which are proven wrong every cycle. Even a quick look at their campaign ads should tell you which campaign is acting more desperate — Reeves' only response to the state's myriad problems is literally "let’s stop trans athletes from participating in women's sports" (something that’s basically unheard of in MS):

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/07/12/brandon-presley-tate-reeves-tv-ads-governor/

It doesn’t get more out-of-touch than that. He’s doing nothing to change the perception that he is a sleazy, selfish pol putting himself above the state and only ever throwing red meat when it’s campaign season. This type of candidate really, really doesn’t play well in the Deep South.

[MT Treasurer]

I agree in full with ever TNvolunteer said.


I believe that Presley is going to overperform expectations while Beshear underperforming it

It’s easy to forget that the polling conducted by the Hood campaign showed them ahead (narrowly) throughout 2019... until the impeachment proceedings against Trump overshadowed everything.

The poll said the impeachment inquiry was opposed by a 56% to 34% margin in Mississippi.

Hood campaign staffers said privately after the election that their internal polling showed the Democrat holding a slight lead throughout 2019. Hood’s internal polling also showed that he was viewed more favorably than Reeves. But a key is that the internal poll consistently showed that Trump was more favorable than the Mississippi politicians, including outgoing Gov. Phil Bryant.

As the impeachment inquiry intensified during the final days of the Mississippi gubernatorial campaign, Hood staffers said they could feel the election slipping away.

On that Friday night in Tupelo’s BancorpSouth Coliseum, the momentum for Reeves and the anger over the impeachment inquiry seemed palpable. And on Election Day, Reeves convincingly won the Tupelo area that was viewed as a Hood stronghold, helping to propel Reeves to a 5-point victory statewide.

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/08/06/could-gov-tate-reeves-benefit-again-from-trump-legal-woes/

In other words, the 2019 race was competitive but Republicans did get a late boost in all of KY/LA/MS (esp. the last two) because of impeachment backlash in deep-red states. This is also why JBE won by a narrower margin than expected in early/mid-2019. The environment wasn’t favorable to Democrats in those states and national Republicans did a good job nationalizing the MS race in particular (and are doing a much worse job this year).

[Tekken_Guy]

I agree in full with ever TNvolunteer said.


I believe that Presley is going to overperform expectations while Beshear underperforming it

It’s easy to forget that the polling conducted by the Hood campaign showed them ahead (narrowly) throughout 2019... until the impeachment proceedings against Trump overshadowed everything.

The poll said the impeachment inquiry was opposed by a 56% to 34% margin in Mississippi.

Hood campaign staffers said privately after the election that their internal polling showed the Democrat holding a slight lead throughout 2019. Hood’s internal polling also showed that he was viewed more favorably than Reeves. But a key is that the internal poll consistently showed that Trump was more favorable than the Mississippi politicians, including outgoing Gov. Phil Bryant.

As the impeachment inquiry intensified during the final days of the Mississippi gubernatorial campaign, Hood staffers said they could feel the election slipping away.

On that Friday night in Tupelo’s BancorpSouth Coliseum, the momentum for Reeves and the anger over the impeachment inquiry seemed palpable. And on Election Day, Reeves convincingly won the Tupelo area that was viewed as a Hood stronghold, helping to propel Reeves to a 5-point victory statewide.

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/08/06/could-gov-tate-reeves-benefit-again-from-trump-legal-woes/

In other words, the 2019 race was competitive but Republicans did get a late boost in all of KY/LA/MS (esp. the last two) because of impeachment backlash in deep-red states. This is also why JBE won by a narrower margin than expected in early/mid-2019. The environment wasn’t favorable to Democrats in those states and national Republicans did a good job nationalizing the MS race in particular (and are doing a much worse job this year).

Kind of like Kavanaugh in 2018. After the hearings, Blackburn and Cramer began to pull away in the polls and it led to Braun, Hawley, and Scott having a very late surge with undecideds that pulled them across.

[xavier110]

Unless Pressley somehow breaks into the 30s among white college voters (and their share of the vote expands vs 2020) and black turnout is unbelievably high, I don’t know how he comes close to prevailing when the state is so racially polarized.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A few state house primaries held runoffs today. Follow results here throughout the night: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/29/us/elections/results-mississippi.html

[ProgressiveModerate]

Unless Pressley somehow breaks into the 30s among white college voters (and their share of the vote expands vs 2020) and black turnout is unbelievably high, I don’t know how he comes close to prevailing when the state is so racially polarized.

Ye my exact thought.

I was sort of comparing this race to LA-Gov 2019. LA and MS aren't identical, but relatively simillar demographically and politically, at least topline. If you look at JBE's 2019 win, he really didn't win by breaking through in rural areas, infact in much of the rural parts of the state he ran basically even with Biden. Most of his biggest overperformances of Biden were with urban/suburban whites in greater New Orleans and Baton Rogue.

Mississippi just lacks these substantial pockets of suburban voters that are actually swingable in extreme circumstances.

Even just going from 5% --> 10% with rural whites in the deep South is a really tall order for a modern day Democrat under any circumstances.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MS Runoff Results:

District 66 D - Nelson
District 69 D - Butler-Washington
District 72 D - Gibbs
District 105 R - Birch
District 115 R - Grady

District 2 R still too close to call

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Nick Bain appears to have lost, by 23 votes

Brad Mattox
2,345   50.25%
Nick Bain*incumbent
2,322   49.75%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They won't poll the Gov race anymore I still have Presley winning

[Skill and Chance]

Fundamentally, what distinguishes Presley from Hood?  As a longtime incumbent, did Hood come off as "too establishment"?  I also see some comments upthread that Hood's sincerity as a social conservative was in doubt? 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Whether Pressley wins or not, I’m very confident MS will swing right in 2024 even if Trump is losing the PV by more than 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not Safe R impact survey Presley 46, Reeves 46


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1696924118514270479?s=20

To all the naysayers

[Duke of York]

It's not Safe R impact survey Presley 46, Reeves 46


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1696924118514270479?s=20

To all the naysayers

I still think most of the undecideds will go to Reeves.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will see Eday

[Oryxslayer]

Fundamentally, what distinguishes Presley from Hood?  As a longtime incumbent, did Hood come off as "too establishment"?  I also see some comments upthread that Hood's sincerity as a social conservative was in doubt? 

The main difference is not on him, but on Reeves. Now he's the incumbent and comparably unpopular thanks to scandals surrounding the state executive office.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Fundamentally, what distinguishes Presley from Hood?  As a longtime incumbent, did Hood come off as "too establishment"?  I also see some comments upthread that Hood's sincerity as a social conservative was in doubt? 

The main difference is not on him, but on Reeves. Now he's the incumbent and comparably unpopular thanks to scandals surrounding the state executive office.

He's not utterly disastrously unpopular like Matt Bevin in Kentucky became though, and that's probably all he needs to hold his seat. You have to almost be actively trying to lose in these deep red southern states for the D opponent to become seriously competitive.