NBC news article: Arab voters rage at Biden in key swing state (Michigan)

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Why did Dearborn Arabs swing against Whitmer in 2022?

[Horus]

Why did Dearborn Arabs swing against Whitmer in 2022?

I think trans stuff maybe

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The "liberal" media is out trying to spin yet another event into a Dems In Disarray narrative? Must be a day ending in Y.

Why did Dearborn Arabs swing against Whitmer in 2022?

Working theory is prop 13 and the anti-LGBTQ panic the Republicans were trying to whip up. Of course, Whitmer ended up outperforming her 2018 result and prop 13 did better than her.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm pretty sure the heavily Arab/Muslim parts of Dearborn swung hard against Whitmer last year but she still did better statewide than she did in 2018.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1715790678523826601

Big swing against Whitmer, and it's too small of a group to really matter outside of a Florida 2000 type election.

Yeah, if the state is close enough where the Arab vote can swing it towards Trump, then Trump has already won the election in other states.

[Brittain33]

I’m old enough to remember when Arab voters punished the Dems by refusing to vote for a ticket with Joe Lieberman on it and unalived hundreds of thousands of Iraqis as a result.

[Devils30]

The Muslim/Arab vote in this country at 1.3% is just not significant. And this figure in addition to being packed into NY, NJ, IL, MD probably includes some Arabs who hate the Islamist movement (a lot of immigrants vote against the regimes they escaped, Dems learned this hard way in Miami).

[heatcharger]

The Muslim/Arab vote in this country at 1.3% is just not significant. And this figure in addition to being packed into NY, NJ, IL, MD probably includes some Arabs who hate the Islamist movement (a lot of immigrants vote against the regimes they escaped, Dems learned this hard way in Miami).

You can try to make the case Muslims are irrelevant, but you never want to be shedding votes. Minorities are much colder on Biden than previous Democratic nominees.

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/muslimtom_/status/1715846655902449812?s=46&t=J_equ31A3oC...

This feels more 1968 than 2012…

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/muslimtom_/status/1715846655902449812?s=46&t=J_equ31A3oC...

This feels more 1968 than 2012…

Hopefully the GOP doesnt reach out to the type of people who would attend such a rally.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/muslimtom_/status/1715846655902449812?s=46&t=J_equ31A3oC...

This feels more 1968 than 2012…

Hopefully the GOP doesnt reach out to the type of people who would attend such a rally.

They won't yet as they still need the Evangelicals, but give it ten years and they will.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/muslimtom_/status/1715846655902449812?s=46&t=J_equ31A3oC...
This feels more 1968 than 2012…

The last time I was in Chicago was for Riot Fest, that event that attracted twice as many people, and required payment to attend as well.

[ralstonfan65]

That is not 25k people lol

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That is not 25k people lol

Yeah, LOL. You'd expect some wider shots of the crowd if it were truly that big.

[sul]

But are they voting for Trump? For spoiler candidates? Or not at all?

not turning out. This will be a huge problem for biden he ain't getting that 2020 covid turnout this time around. Banking on trump being unpopular won't negate that. I've been seeing a increase in people saying they hate biden now but hate trump too it's just gonna be a turnout problem

[heatcharger]

That is not 25k people lol

https://twitter.com/riffs33/status/1713377008095293918?s=46&t=J_equ31A3oC9D3...
https://twitter.com/joshhanson1530/status/1714776406138188197?s=46&t=J_equ31...

Based on what I’m seeing on X, there were definitely thousands of people at this protest. Maybe we can call in our friend Donald Trump to get estimates on crowd size — in any case, these are easily the biggest protests we’ve seen since BLM.

I bet there are a lot of Biden 2020 voters in the crowd…

[TDAS04]

And most of them will still end up voting for Biden in the end. To suggest otherwise would be very insulting to their intelligence.

[Devils30]

But are they voting for Trump? For spoiler candidates? Or not at all?

not turning out. This will be a huge problem for biden he ain't getting that 2020 covid turnout this time around. Banking on trump being unpopular won't negate that. I've been seeing a increase in people saying they hate biden now but hate trump too it's just gonna be a turnout problem

Don't assume a turnout problem in urban areas= sure Biden/Dem loss.

For example, Biden could always counter decreased turnout in Philly/Detroit with bigger margins in Oakland/Montgomery/Chester. In fact, that is exactly what happened in the midterms with young turnout dropping. Do not assume Biden cannot gain in the suburbs even more, public opinion is not on the side of Hamas.

[heatcharger]

But are they voting for Trump? For spoiler candidates? Or not at all?

not turning out. This will be a huge problem for biden he ain't getting that 2020 covid turnout this time around. Banking on trump being unpopular won't negate that. I've been seeing a increase in people saying they hate biden now but hate trump too it's just gonna be a turnout problem

Don't assume a turnout problem in urban areas= sure Biden/Dem loss.

For example, Biden could always counter decreased turnout in Philly/Detroit with bigger margins in Oakland/Montgomery/Chester. In fact, that is exactly what happened in the midterms with young turnout dropping. Do not assume Biden cannot gain in the suburbs even more, public opinion is not on the side of Hamas.

Where are the articles about college educated Trump voters ready to vote for Biden?

This sounds a lot like the Hillary 2016 thesis. They thought they can afford to lose a few small town rubes, no problem. It turned out it wasn’t just small towns — it was also Youngstown, Kenosha and Scranton.

In this case, it isn’t just Dearborn — it’s also Detroit and Philly. Go into these communities and you’ll find either apathy or outright anger with Biden and the Democrats. They feel like they aren’t being listened to.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Doesn’t Biden want peace and a two state solution? What is it that the pro-Palestine crowd hate about Biden?

Strange how Biden has been pissing off both sides on several issues. Immigration and now this.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

But are they voting for Trump? For spoiler candidates? Or not at all?

not turning out. This will be a huge problem for biden he ain't getting that 2020 covid turnout this time around. Banking on trump being unpopular won't negate that. I've been seeing a increase in people saying they hate biden now but hate trump too it's just gonna be a turnout problem

Don't assume a turnout problem in urban areas= sure Biden/Dem loss.

For example, Biden could always counter decreased turnout in Philly/Detroit with bigger margins in Oakland/Montgomery/Chester. In fact, that is exactly what happened in the midterms with young turnout dropping. Do not assume Biden cannot gain in the suburbs even more, public opinion is not on the side of Hamas.

Where are the articles about college educated Trump voters ready to vote for Biden?

This sounds a lot like the Hillary 2016 thesis. They thought they can afford to lose a few small town rubes, no problem. It turned out it wasn’t just small towns — it was also Youngstown, Kenosha and Scranton.

In this case, it isn’t just Dearborn — it’s also Detroit and Philly. Go into these communities and you’ll find either apathy or outright anger with Biden and the Democrats. They feel like they aren’t being listened to.

Another problem is Hillary thought she would only lose a few points among rural WWC when she lost 20+. The same thing is happening in the black belt.

[Birdish]

It's probably best to wait and see how the entire situation plays out before speculating on why/why not someone is changing their vote off of a current event.

[Xing]

Yes, clearly Biden needs to pander to people who make blatantly antisemitic posters, otherwise he has no chance.

[Devils30]

But are they voting for Trump? For spoiler candidates? Or not at all?

not turning out. This will be a huge problem for biden he ain't getting that 2020 covid turnout this time around. Banking on trump being unpopular won't negate that. I've been seeing a increase in people saying they hate biden now but hate trump too it's just gonna be a turnout problem

Don't assume a turnout problem in urban areas= sure Biden/Dem loss.

For example, Biden could always counter decreased turnout in Philly/Detroit with bigger margins in Oakland/Montgomery/Chester. In fact, that is exactly what happened in the midterms with young turnout dropping. Do not assume Biden cannot gain in the suburbs even more, public opinion is not on the side of Hamas.

Where are the articles about college educated Trump voters ready to vote for Biden?

This sounds a lot like the Hillary 2016 thesis. They thought they can afford to lose a few small town rubes, no problem. It turned out it wasn’t just small towns — it was also Youngstown, Kenosha and Scranton.

In this case, it isn’t just Dearborn — it’s also Detroit and Philly. Go into these communities and you’ll find either apathy or outright anger with Biden and the Democrats. They feel like they aren’t being listened to.

The 2022 midterms had a little bit of this with additional Dem gains in Bucks, MontCo, Oakland, Maricopa, and Cobb, Gwinnett, Forsyth. Not huge gains but a point or 2 better than 2020.

WWC numbers are also a wildcard for 2024, if Biden can go -31 instead of -35 with them it makes a difference. And trends are not linear, 2012 interrupted a lot of the 2000-2008 trends that later resumed with Trump. You can see this happening with a Harris 2028 having a complete rural white collapse at all levels.

Philly had apathy in 2022, but if you can win moderates/independents it solves a lot of problems. It will be interesting to see if any third parties really matter in the end. Yes, there is a Cornel West threat to Biden but RFK Jr sucking away a tiny of bit of Trump's WWC is also a problem. Also do not forget FL has sucked away some GOP leaning voters from WI MI PA. It shouldn't be a huge number but in a close election you never know.

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/muslimtom_/status/1715846655902449812?s=46&t=J_equ31A3oC...

This feels more 1968 than 2012…

Hopefully the GOP doesnt reach out to the type of people who would attend such a rally.

They won't yet as they still need the Evangelicals, but give it ten years and they will.

There'll be more evangelicals in 10 years.

(I think you're kind of right here, actually, that the GOP will gradually become more consistently isolationist over time, but they're not going to appeal to some group instead of evangelicals. Evangelicals are, like, too large a segment of society and growing too fast for that.)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The Muslim/Arab vote in this country at 1.3% is just not significant. And this figure in addition to being packed into NY, NJ, IL, MD probably includes some Arabs who hate the Islamist movement (a lot of immigrants vote against the regimes they escaped, Dems learned this hard way in Miami).

Elections usually are within 1%

Those 1.3% would make the difference between Trump winning re-election or not in 2020 given how close some states were.