Israel-Gaza war

[Silent Hunter]

In any event, ceasefire talks have ended without a deal. Hamas still wants a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

In any event, ceasefire talks have ended without a deal. Hamas still wants a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal.

AKA, total surrender before hostage negotiations can begin. Needless to say, total non-starter.

[GoTfan]

In any event, ceasefire talks have ended without a deal. Hamas still wants a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal.

AKA, total surrender before hostage negotiations can begin. Needless to say, total non-starter.

Not a surrender, but definitely something Israel cannot and should not accept. At the very least, there has to be proper evidence that the hostages are still alive.

That said, this is likely just fine with Netanyahu, because he'll be pushed the second it's over and lose his immunity. He is the biggest problem Israel has here, and the sooner he's out, the better off everyone will be.

[quesaisje]

That said, this is likely just fine with Netanyahu, because he'll be pushed the second it's over and lose his immunity. He is the biggest problem Israel has here, and the sooner he's out, the better off everyone will be.

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

[Silent Hunter]

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

Gantz is only slightly better than Netanyahu - he's pro-settlements (albeit just in the existing areas) and wants to retain large parts of the West Bank.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

Gantz is only slightly better than Netanyahu - he's pro-settlements (albeit just in the existing areas) and wants to retain large parts of the West Bank.

Really, as of 10-7, every political position to the left of that is beyond dead for the next few years if not decades.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

Gantz is only slightly better than Netanyahu - he's pro-settlements (albeit just in the existing areas) and wants to retain large parts of the West Bank.

It’s a low bar, but Gantz will be much better than Netanyahu for several reasons: 1) He won’t proactively work to prevent peace/make the situation worse; 2) he is neither a crook nor an aspiring dictator; 3) His administration will not be stacked with racists who fantasize about committing genocide; 4) His policy on the West Bank will be better than Netanyahu’s if only in that he won’t let the settlements expand further whereas Netanyahu wants to build as many new ones as possible ASAP; 5) He won’t deliberately work to drag Gaza out as long as humanly possible; 6) He will not try to drag the US into the war or start a broader regional conflict; 7) He will not be dependent upon the whims of the Haredi; Netanyahu could end up in prison during Gantz’s time in office which would likely drive a stake through his heart, politically speaking.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

Gantz is only slightly better than Netanyahu - he's pro-settlements (albeit just in the existing areas) and wants to retain large parts of the West Bank.

Really, as of 10-7, every political position to the left of that is beyond dead for the next few years if not decades.

The 1973 war convinced Israel that they needed a peace agreement with Egypt.

[Lord Halifax]

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

Gantz is only slightly better than Netanyahu - he's pro-settlements (albeit just in the existing areas) and wants to retain large parts of the West Bank.

Really, as of 10-7, every political position to the left of that is beyond dead for the next few years if not decades.

The 1973 war convinced Israel that they needed a peace agreement with Egypt.

Egypt was the biggest Arab state by far and had a government that could be trusted to uphold a peace deal, the current situation isn't remotely similar.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

Gantz is only slightly better than Netanyahu - he's pro-settlements (albeit just in the existing areas) and wants to retain large parts of the West Bank.

Really, as of 10-7, every political position to the left of that is beyond dead for the next few years if not decades.

The 1973 war convinced Israel that they needed a peace agreement with Egypt.

Egypt was the biggest Arab state by far and had a government that could be trusted to uphold a peace deal, the current situation isn't remotely similar.

Unlike Egypt before the peace agreement, the PLO recognizes Israel.

[GoTfan]

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

Gantz is only slightly better than Netanyahu - he's pro-settlements (albeit just in the existing areas) and wants to retain large parts of the West Bank.

Really, as of 10-7, every political position to the left of that is beyond dead for the next few years if not decades.

I suppose the hope of people like me is that his ascension would be a comparatively calming influence on a white-hot situation that has massive potential for international flashpoints and spillover conflicts.

[Beet]

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

Gantz is only slightly better than Netanyahu - he's pro-settlements (albeit just in the existing areas) and wants to retain large parts of the West Bank.

Really, as of 10-7, every political position to the left of that is beyond dead for the next few years if not decades.

The 1973 war convinced Israel that they needed a peace agreement with Egypt.

Egypt was the biggest Arab state by far and had a government that could be trusted to uphold a peace deal, the current situation isn't remotely similar.

Unlike Egypt before the peace agreement, the PLO recognizes Israel.

Yeah Egypt had literally attacked Israel in 1973 but the PLA hasn't attacked Israel in decades.

[CumbrianLefty]

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

Gantz is only slightly better than Netanyahu - he's pro-settlements (albeit just in the existing areas) and wants to retain large parts of the West Bank.

Really, as of 10-7, every political position to the left of that is beyond dead for the next few years if not decades.

I suppose the hope of people like me is that his ascension would be a comparatively calming influence on a white-hot situation that has massive potential for international flashpoints and spillover conflicts.

Its a bit like the argument about Russia "what's the point of hoping for Putin to go, when he will only be replaced by another hardliner?" Which misses the point that personalities also matter.

Even if Bibi gets succeeded by another hawk, they won't have his need to continue the war simply to stay in power - just as the next Russian leader (even if a fellow nationalist) won't have the same level of emotional investment in denying Ukraine should even be a thing.

[Horus]

Plenty of this on the Atlas Forum as well.

https://twitter.com/mxsgl/status/1766601931508556278?t=W-fUj_vASF7Zt1e_WPhK4g&am...

[Silent Hunter]

If that's true, then he needs to be prosecuted.

[Horus]

If that's true, then he needs to be prosecuted.

He will probably be treated as a hero by the same people who should be prosecuting him. Or at best they'll just ignore it.

He certainly won't face consequences, I'd wager a solid majority of Israelis agree with what he did.

[Silent Hunter]

If that's true, then he needs to be prosecuted.

He will probably be treated as a hero by the same people who should be prosecuting him. Or at best they'll just ignore it.

He certainly won't face consequences, I'd wager a solid majority of Israelis agree with what he did.

If that's true, then why do you think that is?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If that's true, then he needs to be prosecuted.

He will probably be treated as a hero by the same people who should be prosecuting him. Or at best they'll just ignore it.

He certainly won't face consequences, I'd wager a solid majority of Israelis agree with what he did.

If that's true, then why do you think that is?

Because Israel can freely commit war crimes live on camera and rest assured that Joe Biden will protect them from any repercussions. He said that there are literally no red lines and nothing would stop him from sending them weapons and protecting them from their enemies. If there are no consequences then why change?

EDIT: Technically the above isn't entirely correct; the war criminal in question did face consequences, specifically from the Hamas fighters who killed him, took his helmet cam and sent it to Al Jazeera. So technically he also can't be prosecuted because he's dead. The dangerous lesson plenty of people are internalizing right now is that the battlefield can deliver justice where "international law" and "the civilized Western world" fail.

[Horus]

If that's true, then he needs to be prosecuted.

He will probably be treated as a hero by the same people who should be prosecuting him. Or at best they'll just ignore it.

He certainly won't face consequences, I'd wager a solid majority of Israelis agree with what he did.

If that's true, then why do you think that is?

Many reasons, MBD summed up some of them. However, I also think there is a strain of thinking in Israeli society that if they are as awful and violent as all of the savages who brutalized Jewish people in the past, that somehow Jews will be more respected by the world at large since we are "finally fighting back."

In related news, Bibi continues to cuck Biden.

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1766895256199446995?t=Fgyo20Ee6oktummb...

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1766831006923792509

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Might happen because of this Orthodox draft crisis right now. All the better for Israel, and the following government will be deeply disappointing to the left, thankfully.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Are there any decent estimates of how many Hamas/PIJ et al, commanders are left? Surely they've taken heavy casualties.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1766831006923792509

Time for the CIA to do the most based coup in their entire history

[lfromnj]

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers

Some pretty solid numbers coming out here.
Very strong negative correlation between men killed and women killed(although I do find this believable)

No correlation between children and women killed per day which doesn't make any sense.

Very tight linear line of growth of killed people killed per day in the first few weeks with no variation.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes we all know that Hamas lies.

But using that to absolve Israel is wearing just a little thin now.