Israel-Gaza war

[Horus]

Oh so a far right despot waging a war of aggression that indiscriminately targets civilians is bad now? Good to see you found your moral outrage when it doesn’t involve a country you have ties with Lula 😑

Lula's Ukraine neutrality would be his one blind spot, but domestically he's basically perfect. Exactly what I'd want in a leader.

Tbf most would look perfect domestically when compared to the fascist douchebag that came before him

Sure but his sort of compassionate left wing nationalism is pretty much exactly where I am politically. Haddad or the like would be an improvement too of course but not in the same way.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think this is an obvious attempt to pawn Biden's failures on this issue onto Bibi

Possibly, but I don't think it's at all obvious. Why do you?

Anyway, what "Biden failures" exactly? How is he to blame for October 7th in any way at all??

[Comrade Funk]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

[Horus]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

Israel's free ride is completely over and done with the next Dem president. I'm not sure where they'll turn after that, probably try to suck up to Russia again even though Putin has laughed in their face for years. Oh well.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The racial polarization is striking, and dismaying given how many serious, important issues are racially polarized in this country already.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point.

Depends on what you mean by "support." There are also people like me who recognize that Israel suffered a huge terrorist attack in which Hamas intentionally massacred huge numbers of civilians, larger in terms of proportion of population killed than 9/11, and that such a thing can never be justified by anything and that Israel has a legitimate right to defend itself against that.

But at the same time, I recognize that Netanyahu is a ghoul and certainly do not support settlements, and think USA should use leverage to do more to put a stop to that.

In an ideal world, what might have been a good move for Biden way back on October 8 or so would have been to make clear that USA supports Israel's right to defend itself and to exist, and for that reason will help provide Israel with weapons etc to aid it materially, but at the same time to have made a purely symbolic gesture to have made clear that all is not well with Netanyahu and his far right government's policies.

For example, Biden could have, at the same time as he expressed the support that he actually did, have reversed Trump's symbolic decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem. Biden could have said that the reason for reversing that was Netanyahu's government's continued expansion of settlements in the west bank and concerns about the future of Democracy in Israel. Biden could have said that while Hamas' actions were atrocious, and while Israel had little choice but to seek to militarily dismantle Hamas, Hamas should not be confused with all Palestinian people, and that Palestinian civilians do have just as much of a right to live in peace and safety as do Israelis.

Biden could have said that at least on his watch and presumably on the watch of future Democratic Presidents (although a Republican President might reverse it in the interim), there would be no US embassy in Jerusalem until all settlement expansion was permanently canceled and until not only, and perhaps also not until there could also be a US embassy to the state of Palestine also in Jerusalem.

This would have made clear (even if only symbolically) that on the one hand, USA backs in clear material substance Israel's legitimate right to existence and self-defense, and recognizes that Hamas must be destroyed, but on the other hand, that does not entail unconditional blanket support for a far-right government which has done much to make the situation with Palestinians worse.

Israel's free ride is completely over and done with the next Dem president. I'm not sure where they'll turn after that, probably try to suck up to Russia again even though Putin has laughed in their face for years. Oh well.

This is actually part of the problem, and is something that does limit US leverage and how much US pressure can achieve. If the US stops backing Israel, it is not inconceivable that Israel could turn to China for support with weapons, and under the right circumstances, China might be willing to go along with that. This would be problematic both for the US and also for Israel because Israel has a lot of advanced US technology such as F-35s.

But we should remember that this sort of thing is possible, and that Israel is not actually a US puppet state. One of the core ideas of Israel's founding (as a direct result of the Holocaust) was the idea that nobody but Jews themselves could be truly trusted to defend the Jewish people, and that Israel should not fully depend on an outside power such as the US, but should be ready to defend itself on its own even without foreign support, if that is necessary.

So if things did get bad enough between Israel and the US, Israel could at some point start turning more towards China, India, or other non-western but non-arab/muslim countries.

[Vosem]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.

Fuzzy and Vosem types --> 50% of Americans? Fair point, I guess.

It's very noticeable that Israel does worse on polls with lower undecideds, or no neutral option; I don't think I've seen a single poll which permits a "both sides" or "undecided" option where support for Israel isn't the plurality opinion even among Americans 18-29, but if you force a choice then a large number of people pick the opposite side. (This is basically consistent with a world where the Israeli side is much more enthused through to the youngest voters and American politicians keep taking its side until everyone currently 18 or older is dead).

Still not even clear that the long-term trend is against Israel at all (though the comparison with 2006 is not fair, since if there was a reversal in trend it was around 2017-2018), or even that Israel's actual actions aren't moderate enough to fit under most Americans' definition of "ceasefire". Of course the "most" here is 51%, so we're back to Fuzzy and Vosem types, or the same 50% from that Gallup poll.

The racial polarization is striking, and dismaying given how many serious, important issues are racially polarized in this country already.

From November 22, so well over a month into the war; go to page 3. A lot of support for Palestine is very soft, and evaporates when you add "both" or "neither" (or "not sure") options; in repeated YouGov surveys (...which are historically less favorable for Israel than Gallup, actually), you get pluralities of Americans aged 18-29 and pluralities of black Americans both sympathizing more with Israel than Palestine.

There is a huge fraction of people (roughly 40% of Americans aged 18-29, apparently) that believe supporting "the Palestinians" is the correct answer but do not actually hold strong opinions and will not express that opinion if you give them an out. Among those holding strong opinions, support for the Israelis is at least a bare plurality (and sometimes an overwhelming majority) in every demographic.

The more noticeable thing to me than the racial divide is the gender divide (especially because I've seen it replicated in European polling). Basically everywhere men are more likely to support Israel and women to support Palestine, and the gap is often tremendous, even in places which don't have that much of a political gender gap.

[Vosem]

In an ideal world, what might have been a good move for Biden way back on October 8 or so would have been to make clear that USA supports Israel's right to defend itself and to exist, and for that reason will help provide Israel with weapons etc to aid it materially, but at the same time to have made a purely symbolic gesture to have made clear that all is not well with Netanyahu and his far right government's policies.

For example, Biden could have, at the same time as he expressed the support that he actually did, have reversed Trump's symbolic decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem.

Well, there was actually a symbolic gesture that all is not right: Biden has threatened sanctions or visa bans on West Bank extremists, which would be an unprecedented step for an American President.

The problem for Biden with moving the embassy from Jerusalem, or something like this, is that in repeated congressional votes a majority of Democrats, including the current congressional leadership, have voted to have the Israeli embassy be in Jerusalem, and he would lose a large fraction of his base by reversing it.

"Activist hyper-motivated pro-Israeli sentiment" is a larger fraction of the Democratic base than "activist hyper-motivated pro-Palestinian sentiment". (This is incidentally still true among 18-29-year-old self-identified Democrats; ignore the headline and look at the actual numbers). The former are also much likelier to cross over and vote Republican outright; positions like this are just not on the table. There is a limit to how extreme you can be in a democracy. (In America it tends not to apply to courts, actually, but it very much applies to Presidents.)

Israel's free ride is completely over and done with the next Dem president. I'm not sure where they'll turn after that, probably try to suck up to Russia again even though Putin has laughed in their face for years. Oh well.

I really doubt that the realities of the American electorate (...or, additionally, the realities of other Middle Eastern governments) will let an American President take any remotely meaningful actions (like moving the embassy back) in my lifetime, but the increased media-class pro-Palestine polarization probably does mean that we can expect some absolutely furious public statements from Democratic lame ducks. In fact we probably get this in a second Biden term.

But I doubt the way of seeing the world embodied by the current media class has much staying power. It is predicated on a respect for universities and journalists which will probably be very unusual even among left-wing Americans in a decade.

[Pericles]

On the topic of the Arab governments playing both sides, you have to wonder whether the Palestinian issue will be the spark on top of internal discontent to set off some more revolts against dictatorships. Unlike 2011 they won't be caught off guard, but it doesn't seem like they addressed the causes of the Arab Spring.

[Vosem]

On the topic of the Arab governments playing both sides, you have to wonder whether the Palestinian issue will be the spark on top of internal discontent to set off some more revolts against dictatorships. Unlike 2011 they won't be caught off guard, but it doesn't seem like they addressed the causes of the Arab Spring.

Where? Most of the places that had revolts in 2011 of any consequence are either still mired in civil war (Syria, Yemen, Libya are not under the control of unified governments), or are now under dictatorships with more legitimacy than 2011's (Egypt and Tunisia, who have authoritarian leaders themselves installed by an anti-democratic revolution or who won an election and cancelled democracy, respectively). Sudan had a revolution in 2018 and is now also mired in civil war.

It's also really hard to argue that the outcome of the Arab Spring was a more favorable international situation for Palestinian liberationism. An extremely friendly regime in Syria was dramatically weakened and a more openly pro-Israeli regime came to power in Egypt.

OTOH, the 2011 revolts happened mostly because of a spike in food prices and as a consequence of the Russian-Ukrainian War we're living through a spike today, with Middle Eastern countries most affected, so this sort of thing is possible. Egypt in particular is extremely dependent on food aid, and Central European countries have proposed making that conditional on taking Palestinian refugees -- again, ignore the dumb headline, read the actual article -- though it looks like Anglophone countries at the moment are resolutely opposed to this. I wonder what the actions of a Republican Administration would look like, though.

[Lief 🗽]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

[Florida Man for Crime]

In an ideal world, what might have been a good move for Biden way back on October 8 or so would have been to make clear that USA supports Israel's right to defend itself and to exist, and for that reason will help provide Israel with weapons etc to aid it materially, but at the same time to have made a purely symbolic gesture to have made clear that all is not well with Netanyahu and his far right government's policies.

For example, Biden could have, at the same time as he expressed the support that he actually did, have reversed Trump's symbolic decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem.

Well, there was actually a symbolic gesture that all is not right: Biden has threatened sanctions or visa bans on West Bank extremists, which would be an unprecedented step for an American President.

The problem for Biden with moving the embassy from Jerusalem, or something like this, is that in repeated congressional votes a majority of Democrats, including the current congressional leadership, have voted to have the Israeli embassy be in Jerusalem, and he would lose a large fraction of his base by reversing it.

"Activist hyper-motivated pro-Israeli sentiment" is a larger fraction of the Democratic base than "activist hyper-motivated pro-Palestinian sentiment". (This is incidentally still true among 18-29-year-old self-identified Democrats; ignore the headline and look at the actual numbers). The former are also much likelier to cross over and vote Republican outright; positions like this are just not on the table. There is a limit to how extreme you can be in a democracy. (In America it tends not to apply to courts, actually, but it very much applies to Presidents.)

You are undoubtedly right on the politics, I was just talking about what would be a good policy substantively (IMO). Israel would have to do something pretty beyond the pale (to the point of losing Congressional Democratic support from a significant number of Jewish members of Congress) for it to be politically viable for Biden to move back the embassy, and if he were going to do that at all he would not want to do it in an election year.

What Biden did do about threatening a visa ban on settler's is an example of a lower-profile symbolic gesture that will fly much more under the radar for most people in US domestic politics, but nevertheless sends a signal to the Israeli government and to the segments of the Israeli public that pay more attention to news. But not a strong enough signal to actually alter Israeli policy in any way, whereas moving the embassy back would instantly become a dominant topic of discussion in Israeli politics and could lead to more moderation and caution on the part of Israel out of fear of losing US support.

Plus, just as importantly, Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims would be well aware of it, and that would reduce a bit the amount of blowback the US suffers from them as a result of supporting Israel, which could at some point translate into terrorist attacks directly against the US if we are not careful.

[pppolitics]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

Look at the age gap.

US's support for Israel is on borrowed time.

[Vosem]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

Look at the age gap.

US's support for Israel is on borrowed time.

Probably not; most 18-29-year-old Democrats who still pick a side if wording doesn't force them to support Israel. The majority of those who support Palestine pick 'both' or 'neither' (or 'not sure') if offered those options; even among young Democrats, there are more totally committed pro-Israel hacks than pro-Palestine ones. (Also, even if US public opinion were to swing hard against, there is the opinion of America's allies in Europe -- especially -- but also the Arab world to consider. US public opinion swung against Saudi Arabia long ago, after all.)

(Also, I really do not think the current Western pro-Palestinian movement is using effective tactics at all -- much as with complaints about police in the later 2010s -- it is very likely to cause a large backlash against an already-unpopular idea.)

What you're saying is possible, to be sure, if the current university and journalist class remains broadly influential. There are just lots of reasons to think they won't.

Plus, just as importantly, Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims would be well aware of it, and that would reduce a bit the amount of blowback the US suffers from them as a result of supporting Israel, which could at some point translate into terrorist attacks directly against the US if we are not careful.

I don't think "if we do the right thing then maybe violent extremists will attack us" is a very strong argument against doing the right thing; nor do I think violent attacks are very effective at convincing people of your organization's points. A large part of the reason for Palestinian liberationism's odd ineffectiveness in the face of PR victories, and the reason they seem to translate so poorly to the opinions of actual people, is the constant backlashes as a result of violence.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I don't think "if we do the right thing then maybe violent extremists will attack us" is a very strong argument against doing the right thing; nor do I think violent attacks are very effective at convincing people of your organization's points. A large part of the reason for Palestinian liberationism's odd ineffectiveness in the face of PR victories, and the reason they seem to translate so poorly to the opinions of actual people, is the constant backlashes as a result of violence.

I am not saying we should do the wrong thing because we are scared of terrorists.

I am saying that we should do the right thing because it is the right thing to do and, as a positive side effect/secondary effect, also provides a potential benefit of reduced blowback, including possibly reducing potential terrorist attacks against the US.

The right thing to do consists of, in my opinion, providing Israel with material support to help them defend themselves and destroy Hamas in the current crisis, and to make clear that our support of Israel's existence and right to defend itself is unconditional. But at the same time, we should make clear that we do not support anything that Israel does unconditionally, most importantly its settlements expansion policy, and also potentially if Israel abandons or weakens democracy. We should make clear that while we will continue to support Israel in the present crisis, because it was attacked by a genocidal terrorist organization, if it does not remain a democracy and if it continues settlements, then our future support will weaken as soon as Israel know longer is having to defend itself from genocidal terrorist attacks against civilians, because Palestinians have a right to exist and to live (provided that they do so peacefully, without attacking Israel) just as much as Israelis have a right to exist and to live (provided they do so peacefully, without attacking Palestinians).

That is the right thing to do because it is the only real recipe for longer term peace and stability. If there is longer term peace and stability, then there is less likelihood of future terrorist attacks (both in Israel and the US).

[windjammer]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

Look at the age gap.

US's support for Israel is on borrowed time.

Yes it's crystal clear that young people will never change their mind about anything when they will become older!

[Pericles]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

Look at the age gap.

US's support for Israel is on borrowed time.

Yes it's crystal clear that young people will never change their mind about anything when they will become older!

I think there are good reasons for young people keeping their view because the context in which they see the conflict is a lot different from those who grew up in the 1960s. It now looks a lot more like bizzaro apartheid South Africa than a bunch of Holocaust survivors at risk of being driven into the sea, while back then Palestinian experience could be erased from the narrative by the media in a way that just isn't possible now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Why are we negotiating for hostages in Qatar?

Why do Hamas billionaires live in Qatar?

Why is the chief media ally of Hamas, Al-Jazeera primarily funded and hosted in Qatar?

It looks like Qatar is a lot more involved with Hamas than first meets the eye. We have been looking at this all wrong says Mr al-Omaria, a senior fellow at the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Mr al-Omaria says "Hamas isn't worried about winning over the West."


Ghaith al-Omari believes the hostage videos have increased support for Hamas.(Supplied)

Despite the fake looking media reports of smiling Israeli hostages waving to their Hamas captor's, many in the Arab World believe these videos are actually real.

When Noam and Sharon Avigdori were released, they were told to wave to the camera's and smile and say good things about their captors.


Hostages Noam and Sharon Avigdori prepare to leave Gaza with the Red Cross.(Supplied: Hamas Military Wing via Reuters)

Why are the Hamas military video's of crisis actors in Palestinian Hospitals and smiling and happy Israeli Hostage releases immediately taken up so quickly by Al-Jazeera and immediately parroted into Western media? These videos are a gold mine for fund-raising for Hamas, yet we publish them in the West without any verification of fact or circumstance.

Hamas knows the power of media propaganda and now have the embedded links all the way to Al-Jazeera in Qatar to get their views published.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-03/when-hamas-hostages-smile-and-wave-this-is-what-is-going-on/103174444

From the ABC report talking about the Hamas media strategy to the Arab World.

"I think their most sophisticated messaging goes specifically to the Arab audiences. That's their primary audience," he says.

Al Jazeera, the media giant primarily funded by the Qatari government, posted the clip to its 28 million Facebook followers.

The top audience comment, which has been liked hundreds of times, praises the militants for their manners and good treatment of the hostages, pointing out it looked as if they'd developed a close bond with the Avigdoris.

[pppolitics]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

Look at the age gap.

US's support for Israel is on borrowed time.

Yes it's crystal clear that young people will never change their mind about anything when they will become older!

I can't say that we will never change our minds, but the Israel of the future will have to be very different from Israel of the past 15 years.

[pppolitics]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

Look at the age gap.

US's support for Israel is on borrowed time.

Probably not; most 18-29-year-old Democrats who still pick a side if wording doesn't force them to support Israel. The majority of those who support Palestine pick 'both' or 'neither' (or 'not sure') if offered those options; even among young Democrats, there are more totally committed pro-Israel hacks than pro-Palestine ones. (Also, even if US public opinion were to swing hard against, there is the opinion of America's allies in Europe -- especially -- but also the Arab world to consider. US public opinion swung against Saudi Arabia long ago, after all.)

(Also, I really do not think the current Western pro-Palestinian movement is using effective tactics at all -- much as with complaints about police in the later 2010s -- it is very likely to cause a large backlash against an already-unpopular idea.)

What you're saying is possible, to be sure, if the current university and journalist class remains broadly influential. There are just lots of reasons to think they won't.

Plus, just as importantly, Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims would be well aware of it, and that would reduce a bit the amount of blowback the US suffers from them as a result of supporting Israel, which could at some point translate into terrorist attacks directly against the US if we are not careful.

I don't think "if we do the right thing then maybe violent extremists will attack us" is a very strong argument against doing the right thing; nor do I think violent attacks are very effective at convincing people of your organization's points. A large part of the reason for Palestinian liberationism's odd ineffectiveness in the face of PR victories, and the reason they seem to translate so poorly to the opinions of actual people, is the constant backlashes as a result of violence.

That poll is from a month ago.

Israel's standing has significantly deteriorated since then.

[pppolitics]

Freed Palestinians Were Mostly Young and Not Convicted of Crimes

Israel released a total of 240 Palestinian prisoners and detainees in exchange for 105 hostages freed by Hamas during a weeklong pause in hostilities, an arrangement that diplomats had tried to extend before it collapsed into fighting on Friday morning.

A New York Times analysis of data on the Palestinians released showed that a majority of them had not been convicted of a crime. There were 107 teenagers under 18, including three girls. Another 66 teenagers were 18 years old. The oldest person released was a 64-year-old woman.

[...]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/01/world/middleeast/palestinian-prisoners-released-gaza.html

[pppolitics]

Harris Says U.S. Strongly Opposes ‘Forced Relocation of Palestinians From Gaza’

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/02/world/middleeast/kamala-harris-israel-gaza.html

Too bad this came from Harris instead of Biden.

[Vosem]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

Look at the age gap.

US's support for Israel is on borrowed time.

Probably not; most 18-29-year-old Democrats who still pick a side if wording doesn't force them to support Israel. The majority of those who support Palestine pick 'both' or 'neither' (or 'not sure') if offered those options; even among young Democrats, there are more totally committed pro-Israel hacks than pro-Palestine ones. (Also, even if US public opinion were to swing hard against, there is the opinion of America's allies in Europe -- especially -- but also the Arab world to consider. US public opinion swung against Saudi Arabia long ago, after all.)

(Also, I really do not think the current Western pro-Palestinian movement is using effective tactics at all -- much as with complaints about police in the later 2010s -- it is very likely to cause a large backlash against an already-unpopular idea.)

What you're saying is possible, to be sure, if the current university and journalist class remains broadly influential. There are just lots of reasons to think they won't.

Plus, just as importantly, Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims would be well aware of it, and that would reduce a bit the amount of blowback the US suffers from them as a result of supporting Israel, which could at some point translate into terrorist attacks directly against the US if we are not careful.

I don't think "if we do the right thing then maybe violent extremists will attack us" is a very strong argument against doing the right thing; nor do I think violent attacks are very effective at convincing people of your organization's points. A large part of the reason for Palestinian liberationism's odd ineffectiveness in the face of PR victories, and the reason they seem to translate so poorly to the opinions of actual people, is the constant backlashes as a result of violence.

That poll is from a month ago.

Israel's standing has significantly deteriorated since then.

No, it's from November 13. (The other poll I shared, which had basically the same numbers, was from November 22, so not even two weeks ago; I shared the November 13 poll because it has snazzier graphics, to help those in this thread like Horus who have bragged about their dislike of reading).

Please learn to read!

It's pretty clear that sympathy for Israel increased when the initial terrorist attack happened, but then went back to "normal" when the bombing campaign started, but hasn't continued declining. The kind of people who think that bombing Gaza is an unjustified response were not sympathetic to Israel to begin with. "Normal" is still an enormous advantage, including net sympathy among those who take a side when not pushed in every demographic (yes, including 18-29-year-old Democrats, much less Democrats as a whole, much less Americans as a whole).

Harris Says U.S. Strongly Opposes ‘Forced Relocation of Palestinians From Gaza’

True; as another article I shared demonstrates, it is Central European countries which are pushing for this to happen. Part of the task for Israel over the next few decades is learning to live with allies much more extreme on the Palestine issue than they are, probably including America during Republican Administrations. (And part of the task of Democratic Administrations will be living with American allies, both among Arab countries and in Europe, pushing for more pro-Israel stances; I think this is unlikely to pose a problem as the party becomes more militaristic to balance out an ever-more-conservative Supreme Court, but I think if your view of the future of American public opinion holds, then this might be a problem.)

[pppolitics]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

Look at the age gap.

US's support for Israel is on borrowed time.

Probably not; most 18-29-year-old Democrats who still pick a side if wording doesn't force them to support Israel. The majority of those who support Palestine pick 'both' or 'neither' (or 'not sure') if offered those options; even among young Democrats, there are more totally committed pro-Israel hacks than pro-Palestine ones. (Also, even if US public opinion were to swing hard against, there is the opinion of America's allies in Europe -- especially -- but also the Arab world to consider. US public opinion swung against Saudi Arabia long ago, after all.)

(Also, I really do not think the current Western pro-Palestinian movement is using effective tactics at all -- much as with complaints about police in the later 2010s -- it is very likely to cause a large backlash against an already-unpopular idea.)

What you're saying is possible, to be sure, if the current university and journalist class remains broadly influential. There are just lots of reasons to think they won't.

Plus, just as importantly, Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims would be well aware of it, and that would reduce a bit the amount of blowback the US suffers from them as a result of supporting Israel, which could at some point translate into terrorist attacks directly against the US if we are not careful.

I don't think "if we do the right thing then maybe violent extremists will attack us" is a very strong argument against doing the right thing; nor do I think violent attacks are very effective at convincing people of your organization's points. A large part of the reason for Palestinian liberationism's odd ineffectiveness in the face of PR victories, and the reason they seem to translate so poorly to the opinions of actual people, is the constant backlashes as a result of violence.

That poll is from a month ago.

Israel's standing has significantly deteriorated since then.

No, it's from November 13. (The other poll I shared, which had basically the same numbers, was from November 22, so not even two weeks ago; I shared the November 13 poll because it has snazzier graphics, to help those in this thread like Horus who have bragged about their dislike of reading).

Please learn to read!

It's pretty clear that sympathy for Israel increased when the initial terrorist attack happened, but then went back to "normal" when the bombing campaign started, but hasn't continued declining. The kind of people who think that bombing Gaza is an unjustified response were not sympathetic to Israel to begin with. "Normal" is still an enormous advantage, including net sympathy among those who take a side when not pushed in every demographic (yes, including 18-29-year-old Democrats, much less Democrats as a whole, much less Americans as a whole).

Harris Says U.S. Strongly Opposes ‘Forced Relocation of Palestinians From Gaza’

True; as another article I shared demonstrates, it is Central European countries which are pushing for this to happen. Part of the task for Israel over the next few decades is learning to live with allies much more extreme on the Palestine issue than they are, probably including America during Republican Administrations. (And part of the task of Democratic Administrations will be living with American allies, both among Arab countries and in Europe, pushing for more pro-Israel stances; I think this is unlikely to pose a problem as the party becomes more militaristic to balance out an ever-more-conservative Supreme Court, but I think if your view of the future of American public opinion holds, then this might be a problem.)

Reading must be hard

YouGov has surveyed Americans about the Israel-Hamas war since it broke out last month, and on Nov. 8 - 9 surveyed more than 12,000 Americans to take a closer look at opinions on this issue.

[Vosem]

Israel's support is down to Fuzzy and Vosem types at this point. The consequences of ignoring 20+ years of warnings that they're wolf warrior diplomacy was leading to isolation minus the evangelical death cult/anti-Arabs.
https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1730719161972674717

The poll shows Israel with majority support despite two months of non-stop anti-Israel propaganda in every source of media? Seems a lot less disastrous for Israel than it’s being presented as…

Look at the age gap.

US's support for Israel is on borrowed time.

Probably not; most 18-29-year-old Democrats who still pick a side if wording doesn't force them to support Israel. The majority of those who support Palestine pick 'both' or 'neither' (or 'not sure') if offered those options; even among young Democrats, there are more totally committed pro-Israel hacks than pro-Palestine ones. (Also, even if US public opinion were to swing hard against, there is the opinion of America's allies in Europe -- especially -- but also the Arab world to consider. US public opinion swung against Saudi Arabia long ago, after all.)

(Also, I really do not think the current Western pro-Palestinian movement is using effective tactics at all -- much as with complaints about police in the later 2010s -- it is very likely to cause a large backlash against an already-unpopular idea.)

What you're saying is possible, to be sure, if the current university and journalist class remains broadly influential. There are just lots of reasons to think they won't.

Plus, just as importantly, Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims would be well aware of it, and that would reduce a bit the amount of blowback the US suffers from them as a result of supporting Israel, which could at some point translate into terrorist attacks directly against the US if we are not careful.

I don't think "if we do the right thing then maybe violent extremists will attack us" is a very strong argument against doing the right thing; nor do I think violent attacks are very effective at convincing people of your organization's points. A large part of the reason for Palestinian liberationism's odd ineffectiveness in the face of PR victories, and the reason they seem to translate so poorly to the opinions of actual people, is the constant backlashes as a result of violence.

That poll is from a month ago.

Israel's standing has significantly deteriorated since then.

No, it's from November 13. (The other poll I shared, which had basically the same numbers, was from November 22, so not even two weeks ago; I shared the November 13 poll because it has snazzier graphics, to help those in this thread like Horus who have bragged about their dislike of reading).

Please learn to read!

It's pretty clear that sympathy for Israel increased when the initial terrorist attack happened, but then went back to "normal" when the bombing campaign started, but hasn't continued declining. The kind of people who think that bombing Gaza is an unjustified response were not sympathetic to Israel to begin with. "Normal" is still an enormous advantage, including net sympathy among those who take a side when not pushed in every demographic (yes, including 18-29-year-old Democrats, much less Democrats as a whole, much less Americans as a whole).

Harris Says U.S. Strongly Opposes ‘Forced Relocation of Palestinians From Gaza’

True; as another article I shared demonstrates, it is Central European countries which are pushing for this to happen. Part of the task for Israel over the next few decades is learning to live with allies much more extreme on the Palestine issue than they are, probably including America during Republican Administrations. (And part of the task of Democratic Administrations will be living with American allies, both among Arab countries and in Europe, pushing for more pro-Israel stances; I think this is unlikely to pose a problem as the party becomes more militaristic to balance out an ever-more-conservative Supreme Court, but I think if your view of the future of American public opinion holds, then this might be a problem.)

Reading must be hard

YouGov has surveyed Americans about the Israel-Hamas war since it broke out last month, and on Nov. 8 - 9 surveyed more than 12,000 Americans to take a closer look at opinions on this issue.

It was published and described November 13, though I guess fair cop otherwise.