Israel-Gaza war

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1727922788189495319

Well, that was fast.

Some of the Israeli government needs to be put on trial for war crimes after this. We learned this the hard way after WW2, and need to make sure never again really means never again.

Some people accuse me of hating Israel or Israelis, but I don't. There's a lot of incredibly moral people in Israel who are some of the bravest people alive.

I am confident that after this is all done, there will be a reckoning in Israeli society with regards to the individuals and institutions that led us to this terrible place. It might not happen in a year or even five, but I believe it will happen one day.

America had one of the nastiest explosions imaginable of anti-Muslim bigotry after 9/11, but now we have a new generation that rejects that kind of bigotry more than almost anyone else in the industrialized world. I am not going to write Israel off.

You and I don't agree on a ton, but I think you're absolutely right on this.

Feels very doubtful that this would be the case both given the general trends of opinion within Israel (further rightwards over time on "peace" questions as trust in the process has more or less evaporated since Gaza became a de facto enemy state) and the general trends of opinion outside Israel, where there's just been ever more support for the state since the mid-1970s. A world where the European far-right keeps becoming more normalized, where Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa keep getting more evangelical, where more Arab countries become Israeli co-belligerents, and where the American pro-Palestinian movement deliberately pursues unpopular strategies is one where Israeli attitudes spread outwards rather than contracting inwards.

(My prediction on AAD in 2021 was that international pressure would keep Israel out of Gaza but that there would eventually be an international coalition which attacks Gaza with Israeli cooperation to destroy Hamas. That didn't really anticipate October 7, but I still think global trends are basically such that the rest of the world will pressure Israel over time to become more rather than less aggressive.)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Some of the Israeli government needs to be put on trial for war crimes after this. We learned this the hard way after WW2, and need to make sure never again really means never again.

Some people accuse me of hating Israel or Israelis, but I don't. There's a lot of incredibly moral people in Israel who are some of the bravest people alive.

I am confident that after this is all done, there will be a reckoning in Israeli society with regards to the individuals and institutions that led us to this terrible place. It might not happen in a year or even five, but I believe it will happen one day.

America had one of the nastiest explosions imaginable of anti-Muslim bigotry after 9/11, but now we have a new generation that rejects that kind of bigotry more than almost anyone else in the industrialized world. I am not going to write Israel off.

You and I don't agree on a ton, but I think you're absolutely right on this.

To elaborate, I think Israel's stated war aim of permanently degrading Hamas is legitimate, especially after the events of last month, but I'm completely out of hope on the current government and military establishment's strategy as capable of, or frankly even interested in, attaining that aim. You can't conduct a bombing-first counterinsurgency; you can't reliably get away with feeding histrionic, dehumanizing rhetoric about the enemy to your own public and insisting to the rest of the world that you're not doing so (even though that trick has been Hamas's bread and butter for decades); you can't invade a country famous partly for your previous disengagement from it without any plan at all for what to do with it once you've reestablished military control. This is the sort of campaign that Legend of the Galactic Heroes characters plan at the beginnings of plotlines that end with Reinhard von Lohengramm having them shot.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1727922788189495319

Well, that was fast.

Some of the Israeli government needs to be put on trial for war crimes after this. We learned this the hard way after WW2, and need to make sure never again really means never again.

Some people accuse me of hating Israel or Israelis, but I don't. There's a lot of incredibly moral people in Israel who are some of the bravest people alive.

I am confident that after this is all done, there will be a reckoning in Israeli society with regards to the individuals and institutions that led us to this terrible place. It might not happen in a year or even five, but I believe it will happen one day.

America had one of the nastiest explosions imaginable of anti-Muslim bigotry after 9/11, but now we have a new generation that rejects that kind of bigotry more than almost anyone else in the industrialized world. I am not going to write Israel off.

You and I don't agree on a ton, but I think you're absolutely right on this.

Feels very doubtful that this would be the case both given the general trends of opinion within Israel (further rightwards over time on "peace" questions as trust in the process has more or less evaporated since Gaza became a de facto enemy state) and the general trends of opinion outside Israel, where there's just been ever more support for the state since the mid-1970s. A world where the European far-right keeps becoming more normalized, where Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa keep getting more evangelical, where more Arab countries become Israeli co-belligerents, and where the American pro-Palestinian movement deliberately pursues unpopular strategies is one where Israeli attitudes spread outwards rather than contracting inwards.

(My prediction on AAD in 2021 was that international pressure would keep Israel out of Gaza but that there would eventually be an international coalition which attacks Gaza with Israeli cooperation to destroy Hamas. That didn't really anticipate October 7, but I still think global trends are basically such that the rest of the world will pressure Israel over time to become more rather than less aggressive.)

The ceasefire is not over until reputable news sources verify this.

[Dr. MB]

From NYTimes:

By 9:30 a.m., there had been no reports of fighting for more than two hours, and 60 trucks carrying aid and 29 Gazans had entered Gaza from Egypt, a spokesman for the border crossing, Wael Abu Omar, said by phone. Israel said that eight of those trucks contained fuel and cooking gas — a small but significant amount for a territory that has all but run out of fuel.

Both developments were signs that the cease-fire was firming up. Under the terms of the cease-fire, a large increase in aid is expected to enter Gaza from Egypt and Israel.

Cease-fires in the region often require some time to take hold. Air raid sirens sounded in southern Israel roughly 15 minutes after the truce was scheduled to take effect at 7 a.m., suggesting incoming rocket fire from Gaza. But two hours later, all fighting seemed to have subsided.

My advice is not to pay attention to “Israel War Room”

[RilakkuMAGA]

From NYTimes:

By 9:30 a.m., there had been no reports of fighting for more than two hours, and 60 trucks carrying aid and 29 Gazans had entered Gaza from Egypt, a spokesman for the border crossing, Wael Abu Omar, said by phone. Israel said that eight of those trucks contained fuel and cooking gas — a small but significant amount for a territory that has all but run out of fuel.

Both developments were signs that the cease-fire was firming up. Under the terms of the cease-fire, a large increase in aid is expected to enter Gaza from Egypt and Israel.

Cease-fires in the region often require some time to take hold. Air raid sirens sounded in southern Israel roughly 15 minutes after the truce was scheduled to take effect at 7 a.m., suggesting incoming rocket fire from Gaza. But two hours later, all fighting seemed to have subsided.

My advice is not to pay attention to “Israel War Room”

Honestly, is it a rule that any account with the term "War Room" in it ends up a deranged disinformation pit? (See the DeSantis War Room)

[Meclazine for Israel]

Egyptian Border

https://www.instagram.com/p/C0CBxAlOiJB/

Representatives waiting to receive Israeli hostages.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A somewhat unexpected last minute absurdity: the Spanish and Belgian Prime Ministers are, for some reason, having a press conference at the Rafah border crossing where all of this seems to be taking place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Latest reports are that the thirteen Israeli hostages are now in the hands of the Red Cross and are being taken to the border crossing. Meanwhile, the Thai government has confirmed that twelve Thai hostages have been released and that their officials are on their way to pick them up: further details seem a little sketchy.

[Meclazine for Israel]

As above, 13 Israeli's plus 12 Thai hostages freed.

25 is a great start.

DW News Live

https://www.dw.com/en/live-tv/channel-english

[Meclazine for Israel]

Canadian photographer, Shye Klein, shares his story of escaping the NOVA music festival.

Islamic militants, hands drenched in blood, were pulling over cars and committing mass murder on the highways of southern Israel.

Shye had to make an impossible choice about stopping the car or driving away.

NOVA Music Festival Escape

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0CKYhWATcn/

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

If they trade hostages, they should trade 1 for 1.

They should trade 150-200 Israeli hostages (presumably still alive) for the same amount of Palestinians.

Not 50 Israeli hostages for 150 imprisoned Palestinians.

[Hnv1]

The first batch of hostages is out for the collective relief of everybody. It was nice to see Emilia Aloni, aged 5 return from a dank tunnel.


I'm not sure the ceasefire won't be permanent. Henceforth begins the pressure of the Arab world on Hamas to accept reality has changed, and Biden to draw a line in the sand with Bibi.

https://twitter.com/gaza_report/status/1728086759626481947?s=20

[Lief 🗽]

More war crimes and broken promises from the media’s favorite “militant group”
https://twitter.com/ariel_oseran/status/1727976266773475423?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6y...

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Biden deserves a lot of credit for brokering a deal with day-by-day accountability.

[NOVA Green]

If they trade hostages, they should trade 1 for 1.

They should trade 150-200 Israeli hostages (presumably still alive) for the same amount of Palestinians.

Not 50 Israeli hostages for 150 imprisoned Palestinians.

It should be noted that a large number of the hostages released today were not "Israeli hostages".

(13) of the hostages were Israeli, (12) of whom were kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Oz, which suffered one of the worst hits by the Hamas Terrorists of any Israeli community with roughly 180/400 residents killed or abducted.

(10-12) of the hostages, I believe were Thai nationals who had been abducted from Southern Israel, who were agricultural workers after Israel had increasingly moved to alternative labor arrangements after a series of Hamas suicide bombings within Israel some time back. (This separate deal was brokered by Qatar).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nir_Oz_massacre

Not sure off-hand the citizenship of the remaining (13) hostages released today, but suspect there might be some other foreign nationals or those with dual Israeli-Non-Israeli citizenship.

Of the (39) Palestinians released, there are (24) women and (15) Male minors, I believe all of whom were imprisoned in an Israeli Jail in the West Bank.

Also, should be noted that Islamic Jihad, which holds an unknown number of hostages, apparently has agreed to cooperate as well with the conditions of the temporary ceasefire.

One of the Israeli hostages released, Hanna Katzir was held by PIJ, which indicates potential for additional releases for those they might be holding.

I'm a bit lazy right now, so not going to quote, but here are a few leads from the NYT and an Israeli left-leaning newspaper which include some recent live updates.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/24/world/israel-hamas-hostage-release-gaza-war

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-24/ty-article-live/cease-fire-set-to-begin-at-7-a-m-13-women-and-children-to-be-released-in-afternoon/0000018b-ff7f-d4d0-addf-ffffa24a0000?liveBlogItemId=1443743712#1443743712

[America Needs R'hllor]

The first batch of hostages is out for the collective relief of everybody. It was nice to see Emilia Aloni, aged 5 return from a dank tunnel.


I'm not sure the ceasefire won't be permanent. Henceforth begins the pressure of the Arab world on Hamas to accept reality has changed, and Biden to draw a line in the sand with Bibi.

https://twitter.com/gaza_report/status/1728086759626481947?s=20

The thing is that there is only so far the Hamas leaders in Gaza can run. Right now, the only thing stopping the IDF from taking over Khan Yunis and cornering them is that all of the hostages are presumably there and it would put them at risk. Otherwise, Hamas is simply outmatched and I don't think their tunnel network is enough to protect them. So it makes sense that they would start looking for a way out.

[NOVA Green]

More war crimes and broken promises from the media’s favorite “militant group”
https://twitter.com/ariel_oseran/status/1727976266773475423?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6y...

Well although I believe pretty much everyone posting on this thread will agree that Hamas committed atrocious war crimes, if consider what is effectively a political-military organization trying to represent themselves as a "legitimate" organization by virtue of their control over Gaza.

It is undeniably true that within Gaza, Hamas operates within a framework where they have an effective "monopoly on violence", after having effectively liquidated or suppressed all dissident Palestinian factions shortly after the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in '05 to return the borders to the '67 Green Line.

If so, the concept of "War Crimes" likely can apply, even although technically they are not a "State Actor", they are representing to be the "legitimately elected government of Gaza".

Now, the remark about the "media's favorite militant group"... not quite sure what that means, since after all media coverage of Hamas since 10/7/23 has been all over the map, not just within the Western Media, but also within the Global Media, where in many cases you have effectively state controlled media outlets, with little or nothing that exists in the form of a true Independent Media.

Obviously, this would include a couple UN Security Council founding members such as Russia and China...

Within the Middle East, with the exception of Israel, there are arguably no real democracies outside of technically Turkey and Lebanon (Free elections but how fair are they?).

Turkish media is obviously heavily influenced by the State, as well as some private outlets all chums of Erdogen, so doubtful you will get any kind of "balanced" reporting there.

Lebanon is well... Lebanon despite the Civil Wars of the '70s and "80s thankfully long gone.

Country is too bankrupt these days, plus absorbing some 500,000 Syrian refugees, and Hezbollah effectively having a veto power.

I don't expect the Maronites to ride to Israel's side on this one, let alone the Sunni residents of Lebanon, so even though there are a plethora of media outlets in Lebanon, including secular Marxist publications, the coverage will likely downplay the extent of the atrocities committed by Hamas on 10/7/23...

Now to your actual Tweet Post... I suspect that Hamas is buying time when it comes to ICRC visiting hostages.

Some of that might be they are concerned that giving intel away regarding locations, assuming that US SIGINT is still running strong, and don't want surprise commando raids.

Again, hostage negotiations are tricky, and regardless of the wanton brutality which Hamas has shown for Israeli Civilian life, they certainly understand that one of the few things preventing a full-blown Israeli movement of ground troops into Southern Gaza is the situation of the hostages.

[NOVA Green]

Update on Kibbutz Nir Oz, which I had previously posted about an hour or so back...

All but one of the 13 Israeli hostages released on Friday were abducted from Kibbutz Nir Oz, an Israeli village close to the Gaza border where Hamas militants took more than 70 people on Oct. 7.

Family members said they were thankful that 12 hostages taken from the kibbutz had been returned home to Israel, but that was only “a drop in the bucket,” said Larry Butler, 73, a Nir Oz resident who survived the attack. Of the estimated 215 hostages who remain in Gaza, roughly 30 percent of them are from Nir Oz.

Per capita, Nir Oz is the Israeli village most affected by the Oct. 7 assault.

That day, roughly 100 Nir Oz residents were killed or abducted — one quarter of the village’s prewar population.

On Friday night, the survivors felt some sense of salvation as 12 of their neighbors and relatives — ranging from Yaffa Adar, 85, to Aviv Asher, 2 — were driven to safety by the Red Cross through Egypt to Israel.

“Is that my grandmother?” a young girl cried out after residents identified Margalit Moses, 78, their neighbor from Nir Oz, waving from a Red Cross vehicle.

The village was founded in 1955 as a collective farm whose members pooled their resources and earnings.

The village’s surviving residents describe their hometown as a left-leaning community, dominated by people who hoped for peace with the Palestinians across the border in Gaza, even as most Israelis lost hope in a negotiated peace settlement.

Mr. Butler, a Philadelphia native who fought in Vietnam as a Marine, moved to Nir Oz in 1974 because the community — some of them soldiers turned peace activists — embraced him at a time when Americans turned their back on veterans.

After much of the village was destroyed on Oct. 7, most of the survivors moved en masse to a hotel in Eilat, a resort city on the Red Sea.

The mood in the hotel swings rapidly between normality to grief.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/24/world/israel-hamas-hostage-release-gaza-war

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1728131580668047538

Good to see that my country is critical of Israël.

[Meclazine for Israel]

17 November, 2023

The greatest political leader in Australia's history, former Prime Minister John Howard, has addressed the Jewish community in Sydney, NSW.



Former Prime Minister John Howard with Rabbi Levi Wolff at Central Synagogue. (AJN)

https://www.australianjewishnews.com/enriched-our-lives-and-our-nation/

“When I read stories of discrimination against Jewish people, where I hear stories of schools telling their students not to wear their uniforms outside the school grounds, I think to myself this cannot be the Australia that I grew up in, it cannot be the Australia that was so magnificently led on the battlefields of World War I by arguably Australia’s greatest Jewish son, General John Monash.”

All of the last 5-6(?) former Prime Ministers of Australia going back to John Howard have come out in support of Israel in their fight against Hamas.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Penny Wong confirmed sanctions on Hamas' members had been put in place amid calls for the Albanese government to call for a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

"The Australian Government has imposed counter-terrorism financing sanctions on eight persons and one entity in response to the acts of terrorism perpetrated by Hamas on October 7, 2023," Ms Wong said in a statement on Saturday.

Sky News - Penny Wong

[Meclazine for Israel]

PBS News Hour

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nti9pTphMH4

Nick Schifrin spoke to Dr Majed Bin Mohammed Al Ansari, Advisor to the Prime Minister of Qatar, about the hostage negotiations.

They talked about the process of releasing hostages. A couple of key points starting to emerge from this and other interviews:

• Israeli soldiers will not be released any time soon;
• No one knows how many hostages are actually alive;
• Red Crescent has been denied access to the hostages;
• Other groups outside Hamas are holding hostages.

This process is utterly corrupt. I am surprised Qatar would muddy their name by associating themselves with harbouring Hamas in the first place. Apparently, they have been doing so for 12 years.

[GeneralMacArthur]

What do you guys think happens to Gaza City?  Israel has basically depopulated it at this point and half of the buildings are destroyed.  They hold it under military rule and there's not much international demand for them to leave.

Assuming they don't just resume hostilities next week and roll tanks into Khan Yunis, what's the next move?  Blow up all the tunnels and then leave?  Force new elections and then leave it in the hands of a more Fatah-esque Palestinian leadership?  Install a puppet Palestinian governor and operate it as an iron curtain type of territory?  Hold the city indefinitely as a buffer between the new Hamas command center and Israel?  Delegate governance to an international or Arab coalition?  At what point do you let people return?

[Vosem]

What do you guys think happens to Gaza City?  Israel has basically depopulated it at this point and half of the buildings are destroyed.  They hold it under military rule and there's not much international demand for them to leave.

Assuming they don't just resume hostilities next week and roll tanks into Khan Yunis, what's the next move?  Blow up all the tunnels and then leave?  Force new elections and then leave it in the hands of a more Fatah-esque Palestinian leadership?  Install a puppet Palestinian governor and operate it as an iron curtain type of territory?  Hold the city indefinitely as a buffer between the new Hamas command center and Israel?  Delegate governance to an international or Arab coalition?  At what point do you let people return?

Would be very unfortunate if hostilities don’t resume (unless of course Hamas agrees to unconditionally surrender and implement in good faith the directives of the Israeli government).

I think there are still negotiations ongoing as to whether the proximate fate of Gaza will be renewed Israeli occupation, an international coalition (which seems to be what Biden wants, but few want to participate), or an attempt to restore the PA by force (which may go poorly since the PA is not especially popular). My guess is that there will be an Israeli occupation until Hamas doesn’t exist, and depending on how long that takes that solution may become entrenched. An ultimate fate will have to wait for a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which won’t happen so long as the modern ideology of Palestinian liberationism, which supports ethnically cleansing Israel (including of non-Jews!) has any significant number of sympathizers. Once its defeat is complete, including in the souls of ordinary Palestinians, then there isn’t much reason Gaza shouldn’t be an independent state.

[PSOL]

If they trade hostages, they should trade 1 for 1.

They should trade 150-200 Israeli hostages (presumably still alive) for the same amount of Palestinians.

Not 50 Israeli hostages for 150 imprisoned Palestinians.

That’s not how Israel’s detainment process works. Israel has a very loose detainment policy where they up and about arrest anyone within the path of the security forces, so a lot of random civilians not actually engaging in militant activities get swept up as well as low-value targets primarily made up of kids. Israel really can’t hold them up long term, especially now, because of the huge cost to their already overburdened prison network.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1728131580668047538

Good to see that my country is critical of Israël.

What does "didn't condemn Hamas" mean here? Did they just not bring it up or did they make an active, vocal decision against condemning it? The appropriateness of this changes enormously depending on the answer to that.