Israel-Gaza war

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/ELuttwak/status/1711445503240458452

[Aurelius2]

Dutch NRC had a very correct observation: "The Prime Minister who always claimed only he could ensure security is responsible for the biggest breach of security in fifty years." He needs to go immediately on the day this war ends.

Maybe it's an inappropriate time for me to ask this, but based on what we know now, who do you think walks out of this mess in the best position: Gantz, Ben Gvir, or someone else? The leftist opposition I assume will be even more irrelevant than before, since "land for peace" was their thing and now it's been clearly demonstrated as a failure.

[Pres Mike]

I am a Palestinian-American, I am shocked and disguated by the recent attacks by the terrorist group of Hamas, which does not represent Palestine and illegally took control of the Gaza Strip in 2006. They run a dictatorship.

I do not support Israel or its illegal aparthid. But I hope that a quick ground invasion of Gaza can return control of the Gaza Strip to the moderate Palestinian Authority. I also hope Israel will minimize civilian deaths.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/ELuttwak/status/1711445503240458452

"Optimists." Sure.

[Ferguson97]

Dutch NRC had a very correct observation: "The Prime Minister who always claimed only he could ensure security is responsible for the biggest breach of security in fifty years." He needs to go immediately on the day this war ends.

If he's truly that incompetent, then how can be he trusted to lead Israel through the war?

One of three things is true:
1. He didn't know about the attacks
2. He knew about the attacks and failed to stop them.
3. He knew about the attacks and allowed them to happen.

In any case, he is not the man who should be leading Israel right now.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Apropos of nothing, Gustavo Petro seems to be the only world leader simultaneously supportive of Ukraine and Palestine. The anti-Modi, if you will.
https://twitter.com/petrogustavo/status/1711382918877032732?t=DcND5FuwUJ9fvRIaqF...

[Middle-aged Europe]

If true, he should resign in disgrace
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1711394276687388687

Should resign in disgrace anyway but yes. The independent investigation after this will be really important.

Even without the pre-invasion issues, this government has been embarrassing throughout the past few days- transportation, welfare, information, everything. The government ministers being incompetent sycophants shows. The focus right now is squarely on taking down hamas, but once it’s over they will have to pay a heavy political price or there’s really no hope.

Forming a "national unity" government now can only help improving the Netanyahu cabinet's competence and performance, I guess.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Dutch NRC had a very correct observation: "The Prime Minister who always claimed only he could ensure security is responsible for the biggest breach of security in fifty years." He needs to go immediately on the day this war ends.

Maybe it's an inappropriate time for me to ask this, but based on what we know now, who do you think walks out of this mess in the best position: Gantz, Ben Gvir, or someone else? The leftist opposition I assume will be even more irrelevant than before, since "land for peace" was their thing and now it's been clearly demonstrated as a failure.

Is Ben Gvir tied to the Draft Exemption Law, or is those solely UTJ and Shas? Because that's going to be the least popular thing by far.

You'd think an actual military figure like Gantz would be more a popular wartime leader than Bibi, but who knows.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/EdKrassen/status/1711466547435143655

[DavidB.]

Dutch NRC had a very correct observation: "The Prime Minister who always claimed only he could ensure security is responsible for the biggest breach of security in fifty years." He needs to go immediately on the day this war ends.

If he's truly that incompetent, then how can be he trusted to lead Israel through the war?

One of three things is true:
1. He didn't know about the attacks
2. He knew about the attacks and failed to stop them.
3. He knew about the attacks and allowed them to happen.

In any case, he is not the man who should be leading Israel right now.

Because I think the beginning of a war is not the right time for a complete overhaul of political leadership. It would distract from the most important priority right now: the survival of Israel and its citizens. We also still don't know what the hell happened and whether this is all on Netanyahu or it's more systemic. Even if you're probably right about one of these three things being true, I also think Netanyahu's experience in handling crises can also be an advantage in the immediate future. But at the same time, a colossal mistake like this can only be followed by taking the ultimate consequence at the earliest moment Israel can afford a leadership change.

Maybe it's an inappropriate time for me to ask this, but based on what we know now, who do you think walks out of this mess in the best position: Gantz, Ben Gvir, or someone else? The leftist opposition I assume will be even more irrelevant than before, since "land for peace" was their thing and now it's been clearly demonstrated as a failure.

Israeli posters will know better than I do, but I think it all depends on what happens during the war and how it ends. It's too early to tell.

[Pericles]

Fighting a successful war and changing political leadership isn't always incompatible. I will just point out the famous example of the UK in 1940-Winston Churchill became Prime Minister literally on the day that Nazi Germany invaded four countries including France.

[WalterWhite]

Fighting a successful war and changing political leadership isn't always incompatible. I will just point out the famous example of the UK in 1940-Winston Churchill became Prime Minister literally on the day that Nazi Germany invaded four countries including France.

Or Winston Churchill getting booted from power after WWII

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Fighting a successful war and changing political leadership isn't always incompatible. I will just point out the famous example of the UK in 1940-Winston Churchill became Prime Minister literally on the day that Nazi Germany invaded four countries including France.

Or Winston Churchill getting booted from power after WWII

During! Japan hadn't surrendered yet.

[Frodo]

Fighting a successful war and changing political leadership isn't always incompatible. I will just point out the famous example of the UK in 1940-Winston Churchill became Prime Minister literally on the day that Nazi Germany invaded four countries including France.

Or Winston Churchill getting booted from power after WWII

Was this the mindset of voters in Britain in 1945 towards Winston Churchill right before he lost his bid for another term as Prime Minister?

'Thank you for your service to the defense of Britain and its empire.  You have served your purpose.  You may go now.'

[WalterWhite]

There is zero chance Hamas controls the Gaza Strip after this war. Not only is Hamas significantly outnumbered (160K IDF soldiers vs. 30K Hamas soldiers); but Hamas is not getting the international support it had in the past, and the United States, the largest military superpower, is aiding Israel. With such a lopsided situation, Israel will easily end Hamas rule over the Gaza Strip. However, it is important to note that, given the fact that Hamas is outnumbered 5:1, Israel could easily end Hamas rule in Gaza without American support.

Moreover, Netanyahu's approval rating will likely plummet after the war ends. Opposition parties will repeatedly question his ignoring of intelligence indicating an attack weeks prior to the actual attack. It is likely that Likud fails to receive a plurality of the vote in the next election, and many opposition parties have formed an anti-Netanyahu coalition.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Fighting a successful war and changing political leadership isn't always incompatible. I will just point out the famous example of the UK in 1940-Winston Churchill became Prime Minister literally on the day that Nazi Germany invaded four countries including France.

Or Winston Churchill getting booted from power after WWII

Was this the mindset of voters in Britain in 1945 towards Winston Churchill right before he lost his bid for another term as Prime Minister?

'Thank you for your service to the defense of Britain and its empire.  You have served your purpose.  You may go now.'

Basically, yes.

[Aurelius2]

The United States government is not “actively considering” emergency evacuation of US citizens in Israel, a spokesperson for the National Security Council said.

In a statement earlier Monday, President Joe Biden said that the State Department is providing consular assistance and updated security alerts to keep Americans apprised of the situation as it evolves, but that Americans would need to arrange their own travel plans to leave the country.

“For those who desire to leave, commercial flights and ground options are still available,” Biden said.

The president said 11 Americans were among the casualties of Hamas-incited violence, with an untold number of Americans among the hostages the terrorist group had taken since its siege began early Saturday.

US government planes evacuated American citizens from Afghanistan during the 2021 withdrawal of troops and from China in 2020 during the early days of the Covid-19 outbreak. During the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the US urged Americans located in the country to flee in the weeks leading up to — and immediately following — Russia’s invasion.

Commercial options in Israel may become fewer as companies assess the danger of continuing to operate in the region. Delta Air Lines told CNN that it’s canceling all flights to and from Tel Aviv for the rest of the month, but that it will “work with the U.S. government as needed to assist with the repatriation of U.S. citizens who want to return home.”

Delta operates flights to Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion International Airport from Atlanta, Boston, and New York’s JFK.

Pathetic move. Yes there are flights out, but not nearly enough. America's big three carriers fled and El Al has added a ton of flights but not nearly enough to get everyone out in a timely manner. Cold comfort for my grandma that these options still exist when she has to wait around 6 more days till the departure date. And of course that's all out the window if Hamas or Hezbollah manages to blow up the runways at Ben Gurion, which has been a big worry for me.

Our foremost duty is to get our own people out and it's mindboggling to me that we're already talking about sending in special advisors when we haven't even done that yet.

At least we do have the carrier group nearby which can surely get people out if things go *really* south.

[reagente]

Times of Israel / Channel 13 reporting that 1500 Hamas and Islamic Jihad gunmen have been killed inside Israel.

Casualties currently appear to be:

900+ Israelis/Tourists/Foreign Workers killed inside Israel (including around 100 IDF)
~1500 Hamas / Islamic Jihad killed inside Israel
687+ Gazans killed inside Gaza

[Middle-aged Europe]

There is zero chance Hamas controls the Gaza Strip after this war. Not only is Hamas significantly outnumbered (160K IDF soldiers vs. 30K Hamas soldiers); but Hamas is not getting the international support it had in the past, and the United States, the largest military superpower, is aiding Israel. With such a lopsided situation, Israel will easily end Hamas rule over the Gaza Strip. However, it is important to note that, given the fact that Hamas is outnumbered 5:1, Israel could easily end Hamas rule in Gaza without American support.

Moreover, Netanyahu's approval rating will likely plummet after the war ends. Opposition parties will repeatedly question his ignoring of intelligence indicating an attack weeks prior to the actual attack. It is likely that Likud fails to receive a plurality of the vote in the next election, and many opposition parties have formed an anti-Netanyahu coalition.

Hamas and Netanyahu being toast are some of the few good things that will come out of it.

On the downside the 150 Israeli hostages are probably as good as dead - at least a professor from the German Armed Forces University in Munich who was on TV tonight said as much - as are an undetermined number of Gaza civilians caught in the crossfire. The reasoning behind the former part is that you can either negotiate for their release or you can crush Hamas militarily, but you can't do both at the same time - and a successful rescue op seems unlikely especially given the crapshot intel Israel has run on lately.

[pppolitics]

I've already tossed out enough unpopular opinions, but I'll toss out one more and say that if Gaza doesn't return 100% of the American captives they currently hold, we'd be entirely within our rights to put American boots on the ground in Gaza, and the same is true for any other country whose people are currently held hostage by Palestine.

Of course it wouldn't look good, and we may be better off collaborating with the Israelis and having their army do the work.  But we shouldn't hold back when it comes to getting our people out.

Russia has American captives.

Do you also advocate American boots on the ground in Russia?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I've already tossed out enough unpopular opinions, but I'll toss out one more and say that if Gaza doesn't return 100% of the American captives they currently hold, we'd be entirely within our rights to put American boots on the ground in Gaza, and the same is true for any other country whose people are currently held hostage by Palestine.

Of course it wouldn't look good, and we may be better off collaborating with the Israelis and having their army do the work.  But we shouldn't hold back when it comes to getting our people out.

Russia has American captives.

Do you also advocate American boots on the ground in Russia?

At this point, a raid is probably the most logical option for releasing the kidnapped Evan Gershkovich, yes.

[Saint Milei]

I've already tossed out enough unpopular opinions, but I'll toss out one more and say that if Gaza doesn't return 100% of the American captives they currently hold, we'd be entirely within our rights to put American boots on the ground in Gaza, and the same is true for any other country whose people are currently held hostage by Palestine.

Of course it wouldn't look good, and we may be better off collaborating with the Israelis and having their army do the work.  But we shouldn't hold back when it comes to getting our people out.

Russia has American captives.

Do you also advocate American boots on the ground in Russia?

I think you need a break from this thread. That comment about Israeli loyalty over American loyalty was out of line.

[pppolitics]

There will be a refugee crisis because of this war, like there is with EVERY war. I imagine the Biden administration would be very welcoming of refugees (like most Democrats are), but it will probably be more of a mixed bag in Europe. In either case, it is essential that governments do not repeat the mistake they made in WWII of denying refugees entering their countries.

I can assure you that no one in Europe wants even one of these murderous and mentally deranged "Palestinians". The entire Gaza strips needs thirty years of deprogramming to come to its senses.

Polling indicates that about 75% of Palestinians support Israel's right to exist. I am pretty sure only a fraction of the remaining 25% support Hamas' actions a few days ago. Plus, there will also be a lot of Israeli refugees, who clearly do not support Hamas' actions.

I doubt there will be a major national security risk in accepting refugees as there is probably very little overlap between those who wants to flee violence (refugees) and those who want to engage in violence (Hamas).

Why are there no protests against Hamas in the West Bank then and only celebrations?

Because the country is literally oppressed by Israel. Kinda makes sense to celebrate the attacks - based on the sh**t they have to endure - even during peaceful times, sh**t you don't care about, in part because you don't live there.

Great inversion of the truth here! Actuality, oppression comes from threats to annihilate a people, and not from being richer than another in an abstract way. Thanks, sweetie.

I always will point out this irony though; even if Palestine become independent, their pariah status in the eyes of the West, will mean that they will become dependent on countries like Russia, China, Iran,


which undercuts the whole independence argument.

...and Israel is dependent on the US, so I don't see your point

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Fighting a successful war and changing political leadership isn't always incompatible. I will just point out the famous example of the UK in 1940-Winston Churchill became Prime Minister literally on the day that Nazi Germany invaded four countries including France.

Or Winston Churchill getting booted from power after WWII

Was this the mindset of voters in Britain in 1945 towards Winston Churchill right before he lost his bid for another term as Prime Minister?

'Thank you for your service to the defense of Britain and its empire.  You have served your purpose.  You may go now.'

[pppolitics]

In Israel there is talk about RZ and Otzma having to leave the government for the sake of national unity, but I would actually argue it's the Haredim who need to go now. You don't deserve to decide on the (way of) deployment of the army if you fight vehemently to have everyone in the country serve in it except for your own community.

Yeah, I've been wondering if this will be the moment that would finally force the Haredim to do their fair share to defend and support the country that protects their way of life. I agree with them that Torah study should be part of the fabric of a Jewish state, but certainly not at the expense of literally everything else. Their kollelim don't defend themselves.

Military needs are much higher than they were 3 days ago, and Israel can't afford to have 20% of its Jewish population not contributing.

So you want Israel to be even more of a theocracy than it already is.